10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for July 2nd
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Saturday, July 2, 2016.
1. Jake Arrieta has walked 26 left-handed batters in 2016 (44.0 IP). He walked 27 in all of 2015 (109.2 IP). His BB% to lefties has doubled since last season (6.6% in 2015, 14.0% in 2016), and his 1.357 WHIP in June was his highest since he posted a 1.500 mark in May 2014. Even despite this recent bout of wildness, he’s been able to limit the damage and maintain his strikeout upside against opposite-handed hitters (his 10.23 K/9 to LHB is actually up from last year). On Saturday, the matchup may counteract his newfound wildness, as he faces a Mets team with the second-highest walk rate in MLB (6.8 BB%) and that is the second most likely to swing at pitches outside the zone (30.9 O-Swing%).
2. With a 66.9% contact rate, Jose Fernandez is allowing less contact than any qualified starter since Kerry Wood posted a 66.2% contact rate for the Cubs in 2003.
3. Over the past 14 days, though, the king of not allowing contact has been another pitcher. Marco Estrada has a 64.3% contact rate over the past two weeks (including a game at Coors Field), a mark that leads all pitchers in MLB Fernandez ranks second with a 66.3% contact rate). Does this mean you should rush out and start Marco Estrada? Well…no. We’re all waiting on regression for Estrada, but it’s hard to ignore the .138 batting average he’s allowed at the Rogers Centre since 2015 (the lowest mark of any qualified starter in his home park).
4. Nobody can deny that Danny Duffy has serious strikeout upside, and he’s got the Rolls Royce of DFS matchups on Saturday, as he takes the hill against a Phillies team with a .266 wOBA against lefties this season (for context: that number matches Adeiny Hechavarria’s season mark). But one word of caution: his home runs numbers against righties are actually up this year, as he averages 1.88 HR/9 this year, compared to his 1.26 mark from last season. That 1.88 mark is the 10th-highest among qualified pitchers this season. His 41.9% hard-hit rate in June is also highest on the slate (excepting Chad Kuhl, who had just one start).
5. In five starts against Houston, Chris Sale has gone 8.0 innings four times and 9.0 innings one time (his May 19 game against them this year). The nine strikeouts he recorded in his last start against the Astros was the fewest he’d recorded in a game against them since June 9, 2012 (a span of five starts).
6. Mike Trout has a 1.062 OPS after being down 0-2 in the count. That’s third-best since 1913, trailing only Barry Bonds in 2003 (1.082) and Albert Belle in 1994 (1.063). Only one player in MLB (David Ortiz, 1.112) has a total OPS better than Trout’s OPS after 0-2 counts. One interesting note: Trout has recorded a home run in every park in which he’s played at least three games…except Fenway Park. He looks to take Clay Buchholz deep on Saturday.
7. OPS+ is a metric used at Baseball Reference that adjusts OPS for ballpark and creates a league-wide baseline of 100. Paul Goldschmidt is tied for 10th in baseball with a 148 OPS+ in 2016, which surprises no one. More surprising, though, is the player he’s tied with – it’s his teammate Jake Lamb. Lamb has hit a home run in 5.8 percent of his plate appearances in 2016, the same number as Anthony Rizzo. At home against Jeff Samardzija, a right-handed pitcher who has given up homers in droves to lefties recently, Lamb makes for an elite tournament play on Saturday.
8. Miguel Cabrera’s .176 average against left-handed pitchers in 2016 ranks 164th of 168 qualified hitters. A not-so-brief list of players with more extra-base hits than Miggy’s four (two home runs, two doubles) against lefties this year: Erick Aybar, Nick Ahmed, Chase d’Arnaud, Elvis Andrus, Kurt Suzuki, Curt Casali, Angel Pagan, Coco Crisp, Hernan Perez, Jose Iglesias, Billy Butler. So why did he suddenly stop hitting lefties? Fangraphs has a detailed explanation of Miggy’s lefty struggles. But what does it mean for DFS? Maybe not much, but it is a reminder that the 2016 version of Miggy is not necessarily an autoplay against left-handed pitchers.
9. Miguel Sano has struck out more than one time in more than half his games as a major leaguer (66 of his 130 games). So when he’s facing someone like Chi Chi Gonzalez, whose career 11.8 K% against righties would rank 107th of 110 in terms of this year’s qualified starters, the inherent downside in rostering Sano is negated. He’s firmly in play on Saturday.
10. In 49 career games at Chase Field, Buster Posey has a .346/.411/.533 slash line. The 8 home runs in that park are more than he has in any park besides AT&T Park (42) and Coors Field (10). Since 2009 (the year of Posey’s MLB debut), only Adrian Gonzalez (1.077), Hanley Ramirez (.959), and Paul Goldschmidt (.945) have higher OPSs at that ballpark (minimum 100 PA).