10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for July 8th
This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Saturday, July 8th.
1. Prior to Scherzer striking out 10 Braves last night, here is the complete list of pitchers who have managed to reach double figures in strikeouts against Atlanta this season: Stephen Strasburg, Stephen Strasburg, and (that’s right) Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg has notched 10+ strikeouts in each of his three meetings with the Braves this year, becoming the first player since Cliff Lee in 2013-14 to record three consecutive double-digit strikeout games against Atlanta. If you’re playing the early slate, Strasburg and Luis Severino are 1 and 1a in terms of starting pitchers, but Strasburg gets the slight edge (at least in cash games) because of the preferable matchup: the Braves rank in the bottom third of MLB in wOBA (.311), ISO (.143), and wRC+ (89).
2. Aaron Nola has been red hot lately, with 7+ innings, 8+ strikeouts, and five or fewer hits allowed in each of his past three starts; the last Phillies pitcher with three such games in a row was Brett Myers, way back in 2005. Just to be clear, fortune has been on Nola’s side; the 98.8% strand rate, the .224 BABIP, the high (for him) 31.4% hard hits over this stretch all indicate some regression is coming his way. But I’m willing to bet he staves off any looming regression until after the All-Star break, because on Saturday, he finds himself in the ideal matchup against the hapless Padres. San Diego just allowed Nick Pivetta to put up nine strikeouts over seven innings, and on the season, they rank dead last in hard hits (28.3%), 29th in wOBA (.299), 20th in ISO (.165), and 27th in wRC+ (84) against righties. And let’s not forget that they also fan at a 25.8% clip, the highest mark in MLB. In a point-per-dollar sense, Nola is clearly a top option at pitcher for the early slate.
3. Since May 30th, Mike Fiers has a 53.4% ground ball rate, a 26.7% hard hit rate, and a 25.6% strikeout rate. He’s in good company, as the only three other pitchers can match those numbers during that span are All-Stars: they are Corey Kluber, Lance McCullers, and Alex Wood. During this stretch, Fiers has stopped throwing his slider entirely (a good thing, considering the pitch had yielded a .438 ISO up to that point), and his fly ball rate has also shrunk to 28.2%. The dip in fly ball rate has corresponded with a miraculous turnaround on the home run front: after giving up 18 homers in his first nine games of 2017, Fiers has given up exactly zero in the seven starts since (the longest active streak of homerless starts by a starter). Obviously, Fiers’s 0.00% HR/FB rate since May 30th won’t hold. But his recent change in approach and corresponding success is enough to temper expectations for Toronto bats, even in their hitter-friendly home park.
4. With one start remaining before the All-Star break, Jeff Samardzija has an impressive 26.9% strikeout rate and an even more impressive 2.9% walk rate (second-best among qualified starters, trailing only Josh Tomlin). If he’s able to hold those numbers, he’ll be one of four qualified pitchers ever to post a 26.0%+ strikeout rate and a sub-3.0% walk rate before the All-Star break, joining Clayton Kershaw (2016), Max Scherzer (2015), and Curt Schilling (2002). It’s weird to think that Samardzija has reached a position where he’s in play any time he takes the mound, but it seems like that’s where we’re as we near the All-Star break. On Saturday, Samardzija faces a Marlins team that is sneaky bad against right-handed pitching. Despite having the power bats of Stanton, Ozuna, Bour, and Ichiro (just kidding), their .156 ISO ranks 22nd, just a few ticks above the White Sox (.156), and they also rank 18th in wOBA (.318) and 18th in wRC+ (95). Saturday’s evening slate is barren in the way of pitching, and Samardzija should be the chalk.
5. One out of every three earned runs Justin Verlander has given up this year has come at the hands of the Cleveland Indians. That’s right – of his 54 earned runs surrendered, Cleveland is responsible for 18 of them, and on Saturday, he’s tasked with a rematch just days after being torched by the Indians for seven earned runs and striking out zero batters for the first time in a start since April 28th, 2007. Verlander’s recent history against Cleveland has been up-and-down, to say the least. In 2016, he gave up 7 and 8 earned runs in two starts early in the season, but in two meetings in September, he went 14 ⅔ scoreless innings, allowing a combined five hits and striking out 19. There’s really no way to know which Verlander we’ll get on Saturday, which makes him a GPP play, at best.
6. Aaron Judge homered AGAIN last night, and he now joins Roger Maris, Babe Ruth, and Alex Rodriguez as the only Yankees to reach 30 homers in a season before the break. On Saturday, he faces a lefty at home, which is a situation he’s dominated this year to the tune of a .543 wOBA, .370 ISO, and 57.9% hard hit rate (in a small sample, obviously). It won’t fly under the radar, but a Judge and Gary Sanchez pairing (and throw in a cheap Clint Frazier if he’s batting sixth again) is a really appealing stack against Milwaukee’s largely unproven lefty Bruce Suter.
7. Since the year 2000, only been five pitchers have posted a BABIP of .205 or below before the All-Star break (min. 80 IP); the 2017 version of Ian Kennedy, with MLB’s lowest BABIP at .205, is one of those five players. Kennedy has a 49.1% fly ball rate and a 37.9% hard contact rate (which go up to 50.5% and 43.1% against left-handed hitters), so it’s fair to say that he’s been incredibly lucky and is due for some big regression. Among Dodgers who’ve had success against fly ball pitchers this year are Cody Bellinger (.470 ISO, fifth-best in MLB), Corey Seager (.467 OBP, fifth-best in MLB), Justin Turner (.476 batting average, best in MLB), Yasiel Puig (.292 ISO), and Yasmani Grandal (.288 ISO). Even though Dodger Stadium isn’t an ideal spot to stack against a fly ball pitcher, the Dodgers are so loaded with bats that are well-positioned to take advantage of Kennedy that I can’t wait to stack up the Dodgers on Saturday.
8. Three players in MLB have a .490+ wOBA and a .369+ ISO against righties at home this year: Aaron Judge, Charlie Blackmon, and … Carlos Gomez. Now, admittedly, it’s a very small sample of 94 plate appearances. But Gomez has been far better against righties in recent years (67 wRC+ vs. LHP, 104 wRC+ vs. RHP since 2015), and Globe Life Park in Arlington is one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball for righties, so the park certainly works in his favor. He’ll face off against Jesse Chavez, who has shown reverse splits this year, allowing more fly balls and hard hits to right-handed hitters. Gomez should be a key part of any Texas stack, and he’s an excellent one-off play, as well, especially if he’s hitting high in the order.
9. Take a look at the following table, which shows the hard hit rate of a few notable sluggers against left-handed pitching since the start of last season:
| Player | Hard% vs. LHP (since 2016) |
|---|---|
| Paul Goldschmidt | 46.0% |
| Miguel Cabrera | 46.7% |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 48.6% |
| ??? | 51.2% |
The mystery player is none other than Baltimore catcher Welington Castillo, who ranks second in MLB in hard hits against lefties during that span, trailing only Trevor Story. Now, just to be clear, I’m not equating Castillo with any of the above hitters – it’s a small sample, and hard hit rates take a very long time to stabilize. But in this small sample, he’s demonstrated the ability to crush left-handed pitching, so why not take a chance on him against Minnesota southpaw Adalberto Mejia, especially when he slots in at the the always-shallow catcher position?
10. In 36 career at-bats against Julio Teheran, Bryce Harper has seven home runs. That’s more home runs than the Philadelphia Phillies have managed in 350 career at-bats against Teheran (they’re at six) during his career. If you don’t want to play Harper because of the BvP, play him because Teheran has devolved from a merely bad pitcher against lefties to an absolute train wreck. This year, he’s one of two pitchers with a 14.5% strikeout rate or lower and a 2.0+ HR/9; the other pitcher on that list…is Jered Weaver.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!
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