10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for June 25th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Saturday, June 25, 2016.
1. Madison Bumgarner hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in a regular season start at home since April 16, 2015 – that’s a string of 24 consecutive starts. And he’s been red-hot lately – over his past eight starts, he’s posted a 1.07 ERA that represents the best eight-game stretch of his career, at least in terms of ERA. If you changed all 23 of the singles Bumgarner has allowed during that eight-game stretch to earned runs, his 1.07 ERA would rise to 4.58, barely half a run higher than this year’s league average ERA of 4.13. Bumgarner has given up six homers in seven career starts against the Phillies. But that’s no concern – this is a primo matchup, as…
2. The 2016 version of the Phillies has a total of 8 home runs against left-handed pitchers…the same number that the Mariners have against lefties since June 12.
3. In his first six starts of 2016, Jacob deGrom had a 15.7 K%. In the six starts since, he’s nearly doubled that, posting a 31.8 K%. During this most recent six-game stretch, deGrom has a SIERA of 2.69, a mark that ranks fourth in all of baseball (trailing Jose Fernandez, Clayton Kershaw, and Dallas Keuchel), just a few ticks above teammate Noah Syndergaard (2.72). Given that last night Steven Matz gave up six earned runs and struck out exactly zero Braves last night (the first pitcher since Mat Latos in April 2015 to give up six without any Ks against Atlanta), deGrom could see suppressed ownership in GPPs on Saturday, making him an interesting pivot if you can stomach fading Bumgarner.
4. Throughout his career, Carlos Carrasco has been historically bad against the Tigers. In 16 career games (including 11 starts) against Detroit since his debut season in 2009, the Indians righty has a 6.02 ERA, the worst mark of any pitcher against the Tigers (minimum 60 IP). He also ranks dead last in this matchup in batting average (.340), on-base percentage (.389), slugging percentage (.519), and WHIP (1.793).
5. Since the start of May, Julio Teheran has allowed a .151 batting average to opposing hitters (second only to Marco Estrada, .135) – that’s better than Clayton Kershaw (.161), Max Scherzer (.179), Jose Fernandez (.180), and Bumgarner (.180). In his last start, against the same Mets team he faces Saturday, he spun a complete game, one-hit shutout with seven strikeouts and zero walks. It was the first time a Braves pitcher had such a game since Kevin Millwood on April 14, 1998 (Millwood had 13 Ks), and the third time in Braves history (the other Brave to do it was Warren Spahn on August 1, 1953). It’s worth noting that Teheran’s previous start against the Mets, back on June 21, 2015, he also held them scoreless, allowing just one hit in seven innings of work.
5. Last night, Paul Goldschmidt notched a hit in his 12th consecutive game at Coors Field. That’s tied with Chase Utley for the longest streak among active players. During the streak, Goldschmidt is slashing .348/.407/.696. Goldschmidt faces another lefty on Saturday. The term “mashes” gets thrown around pretty haphazardly in DFS circles, but Goldschmidt truly “mashes lefties” – since the start of 2014, he leads all of MLB (minimum 200 PA) in OPS (1.110), wRC+ (196), and hard-hit rate (48.8%) against southpaws. He’s the clear-cut number one option at first base. However, once again, there’s a must-have pitcher in Madison Bumgarner, which will make it difficult to find the space for Goldschmidt.
7. Since 1913, 146 players have recorded hits in their first six major-league games with at least one plate appearance. Of those 146, seven had recorded three home runs in their first six games up to last night, including such notables as Trevor Story (seven home runs in his first six career games this year), Jorge Soler (three in 2014), Willie McCovey (three in 1959), and Roger Maris (three in 1957). Cubs rookie Willson Contreras, who homered in the first inning last night before hitting what would be the game-winning single in the seventh, is now the eighth member of that list. It took Contreras just 19 plate appearances, fewer than any other player on that list, to hit his third home run.
8. Christian Yelich is one of 7 players with an on-base percentage north of .400 in the past calendar year – he joins Joey Votto, Bryce Harper, Paul Goldschmidt, Mike Trout, David Ortiz, and Miguel Cabrera. Four of those players (Votto, Harper, Trout, Cabrera) have won MVP awards, and the two who haven’t (Ortiz, Goldschmidt) will likely have plaques in Cooperstown one day.
9. Jose Altuve has not had a multi-strikeout game this season. The high-contact approach employed by Altuve is not one that is shared by his teammates – Colby Rasmus, Carlos Correa, Carlos Gomez, Jason Castro, Luis Valbuena, and George Springer have combined for 111 multi-strikeout games this year.
10. It’s still early in his career, but Carlos Correa appears to be a vastly better hitter against fly ball pitchers. In 120 plate appearances against them, he’s hit 20 home runs. In 293 plate appearances against ground ball pitchers, he’s hit…two. His OPS is also nearly 300 points higher than when he faces ground ball pitchers, as well (.675 against FB pitchers, .959 against GB pitchers). On Saturday, he faces the most homer-prone fly ball pitcher in recent memory in the Royals’ Chris Young (1.62 HR/9 and 57.7% fly ball rate since 2014, both tops in MLB by a wide margin). Correa doesn’t have the platoon edge against Young, but that hasn’t mattered so far for the Astros shortstop – his career batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, wOBA, and wRC+ are all higher against right-handed pitching.