10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for June 8th
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This MLB season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 MLB notes for Thursday, June 8th.
1. The last time Jon Lester allowed more than three earned runs in a start at home was on September 20, 2015; that’s a streak of 23 games, which is the second-longest active streak in baseball (Lance McCullers, at 26 such games of three or fewer earned at home, is longest). On Thursday, Lester is the largest favorite of the day at -200 in a matchup against Tyler Chatwood and the Rockies. Colorado is no push-over against left-handed pitching, ranking ninth in MLB with a .334 wOBA. But they have a park-adjusted wRC+ of 90, which means that when you take Coors Field out of the equation, the Rockies are 10 percent below league average at creating runs against left-handed pitching. They also strike out at a 23.4% clip, which is ninth-highest in MLB. The only two Rockies players with better-than-average wRC+ plus marks against lefties since 2016 are Nolan Arenado (139), D.J. LeMahieu (130), and Charlie Blackmon (110). At a discounted rate across the industry, Lester is a top cash game option for Thursday’s main slate.
2. Among pitchers who have pitched at least 250 innings since 2015, only Alex Wood, Clayton Kershaw, and Jake Arrieta have a lower HR/9 than Lance McCullers’s 0.68. It’s really unlikely that he’lol be beaten by the long ball against the Royals (especially in Kauffman Stadium, which suppresses home runs). Instead, it’ll take a perfect storm of contact and bad luck, which is what happened in McCullers’s last start against the Rangers in Texas. In that game, he allowed just 25.0% hard hits on a 75.0% ground ball rate, but a .500 BABIP led to a bad fifth inning in which he gave up four earned runs. Don’t be swayed by the box score, though – McCullers was as dominant as ever, striking out eight batters in the first four frames (seven of whom went down swinging). Pairing Lester and McCullers at two-pitcher sites is doable, since neither has a prohibitive price tag, and it’s probably the optimal way to build cash game lineups.
3. In his last five starts against the Yankees, here are the earned runs David Price has allowed in each start: 6, 5, 3, 6, 6. In fact, since 2014, David Price has allowed six or more earned runs six times against the Yankees. No other pitcher has done it more than twice. Price looked great in his last start, and while “Price Struggles Versus the Yankees” might be more narrative than anything, the matchup with New York (ninth in wRC+ against RHP) isnt ideal, especially coupled with the fact that it’s only Price’s third start off the DL. The elevated risk means Price makes more sense as a tournament play on Thursday.
4. Since 2016, Gerrit Cole ranks 103rd out of 105 qualified starters in hard hit rate against lefties (38.4%). During that same stretch, he ranks 10th out of 102 pitchers (min. 100 innings) in hard contact against righties (26.0%). This is significant because on Thursday, Cole takes on a Marlins team that, without Justin Bour, is mostly devoid of dangerous lefties. Cole has developed a home run problem (he’s already surpassed his previous career high of 11 home runs by four, allowing 15 through just 12 starts). And despite his elite stuff, he’s settled in as a roughly league average strikeout pitcher. But the Marlins (22nd in wOBA and wRC+, 25th in ISO against RHP this year) are a matchup Cole should be able to exploit, putting him on the map as an SP2 for GPPs.
5. In 103.1 IP against right-handed batters, Christian Bergman has allowed a .347 average to hitters. Ted Williams’s career batting average: .344. In other words, Bergman is not a good pitcher against right-handed hitters. He also has a comically low 10.5% strikeout rate, as well, which makes Miguel Sano and Brian Dozier (way underpriced at DraftKings) elite plays in all formats.
6. Against righties at home this year, Bryce Harper has a .439 ISO – that’s the same as Kris Bryant (.238) and Nolan Arenado (.201) combined against righties this year. It’s an 83 plate appearance sample, so obviously the .439 ISO is a little silly. But even so, it underscores how dominant he’s been against righties this year. On Thursday, he takes on a righty, and a below average one at that. Baltimore’s Alec Asher has a career 45.9% fly ball rate and 35.0% hard hits against lefties, making Harper one of the top raw points plays of the day.
7. Odubel Herrera had 15 extra-base hits all season up to May 31st. Since May 31st, he’s had nine extra-base hits. That means that 37.5% of Herrera’s extra-base hits for the season have come in the past week. He’s likely not as bad as he showed earlier in the season or as good as he’s shown in the past week. But against R.A. Dickey (career-high 5.81 SIERA, career-low 10.7% strikeout rate this year), Phillies bats are much more desirable than usual on Thursday, and Herrera is a fine cash game play.
8. One more Herrera note: since May 31st, he has a league-leading eight barrels (and for those unfamiliar, “barrel” is a StatCast term for a ball that is squared up with essentially the perfect combination of exit velocity and launch angle). For the entire rest of the season up to May 31st, he had six barrels.
9. Robinson Cano has a rare combination of contact skills and power against right-handed pitching. In fact, he has a sub-10.0% strikeout rate and a .246 ISO against righties this year, and if they hold, he’ll be one of just three players in the last decade to record those numbers in a season (the others are Daniel Murphy in 2015 and Albert Pujols in 2008 and 2009). Cano is the premier cash game play at second base against Kyle Gibson, who is one of just two qualified pitchers since 2016 to allow a .388 wOBA and have a strikeout rate under 15.0 percent against left-handed hitters.
10. The current leader in wRC+ against right-handed pitching among catchers is not Gary Sanchez, or Yasmani Grandal, or even Buster Posey; it’s Tyler Flowers, whose 159 mark stands heads and shoulders above all other catchers (Posey ranks second at 143). He’s doing it on the back of a .438 BABIP, which is extremely high even for a fleet-footed player, which Flowers is not. With the Braves having one of the higher implied run totals on the slate, we should be looking for some exposure to the Atlanta offense, and Flowers provides that at FanDuel, where his price is still suppressed.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles throughout the year, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to keep the discussion going!