10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for May 14th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Saturday, May 14, 2016.
1. Since 2015, Jake Arrieta has faced the Pittsburgh Pirates six times. In those starts, he’s allowed a .188 average and just three extra-base hits (all doubles) in 43 innings pitched. The last time he allowed more than one earned run against them was on September 13, 2013, when he allowed three solo home runs (the only three homers he’s ever allowed to the Pirates). That was his seventh game as a Cub, though, and he wasn’t the same Arrieta that will take the mound on Saturday (and even that start wasn’t terrible – he fanned six batters, walked just one, and didn’t allow any earned runs besides the three). Arrieta, especially in a matchup he’s dominated since joining the Cubs, is the premiere cash game pitcher if you’re playing the early slate on Saturday.
2. Stacking the Cubs is certainly a viable option on Saturday, given they’re facing Jeff Locke, who, in four games started against the Cubs since 2015, has allowed 18 earned runs in 18 innings. If you do take that route, consider leaving out Addison Russell. Yes, Locke is a lefty, and Russell has the platoon advantage. But Russell hasn’t shown the ability to hit lefty pitching in the majors. Since entering the league in 2015, his .142 average against LHP is the second-worst mark in MLB (minimum 100 PAs against LHP). Only Ryan Howard (.132 average) has been worse during that span.
3. Only two pitchers in Major League Baseball have strikeout rates above 25.0%, walk rates below 5.0%, and groundball rates above 50.0%. One of them is Noah Syndergaard. The other is Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola, who faces the Reds on Saturday. Nola is a better strikeout pitcher than he gets credit for – if he manages to strike out six or more Reds, he’ll join Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, and Madison Bumgarner as the only pitchers in baseball to have struck out six or more batters in seven games this year (although it should be noted that Jake Arrieta and Stephen Strasburg could join that group, as well, if they K six or more on Saturday).
4. Jose Quintana ranks second in MLB in FIP with a 2.13 mark that trails only Clayton Kershaw (1.48 FIP). He’s also one of just four players in the majors to have pitched 40+ innings while allowing a single home run (Jason Hammel, Chris Tillman, and another pitcher on Saturday’s slate, Tanner Roark, are the others). Against a Yankees lineup that ranks in the bottom-five in MLB in ISO against LHP, Quintana is, as usual, a super safe cash game option on Saturday.
5. Scott Kazmir, on the other hand, is not. This year, Kazmir has allowed 2+ home runs on four separate occasions – that’s tied with Jon Niese for the most such games by a pitcher this year.
6. In his first 24 games of 2016, Adam Jones had just 16 hits. In the six games since, he’s got 11 hits, including three of the four home runs he’s hit this year. On Saturday, Jones will square off against Anibal Sanchez, whose 2.07 HR/9 to RHB since the start of 2015 is the worst rate in MLB.
7. Jackie Bradley, Jr. has 14 hits over the past week, the most in MLB, and he’s doing his damage while hitting out of the ninth spot in the order for Boston. If you go by wRC+, Bradley is currently the second-most productive #9 hitter in MLB history, his 108 wRC+ trailing only Kelly Shoppach’s 123 career mark (minimum 500 PAs from that spot in the order). Unfortunately, Bradley has played himself out of being usable for DFS purposes, particularly at FanDuel – at $3,900 at on Saturday, he’s priced in the same range as guys like MIchael Conforto, Carlos Gonzalez, and Ryan Braun (all priced at $4,000).
8. Throughout his career, Corey Dickerson has posted a .298 ISO, .337 average, .635 slugging, and 1.006 OPS against ground ball pitchers, all of which are the best in MLB among active players (minimum 300 PAs in that split). Against Kendall Graveman (52.5% groundball rate), Dickerson is a decent bet to homer on Saturday, but if he doesn’t go yard, brace yourself for an 0-for-4 day. Among qualified hitters, Dickerson ranks 13th in ISO this year (.293) and 188th in average (.182), and he’s the only player in MLB this year with more home runs (8) than singles (5). Until he starts hitting for average, he’s probably better suited to GPPs.
9. Generally, players who strike out at extremely low rates tend to be slap hitters who can put the ball in play but don’t possess much power upside. For example, this year, 13 players in MLB have strikeout rates at or below 10.0%, and of those 13, only five are above this year’s league average in ISO (.155). That’s what makes what Nolan Arenado is doing this year so impressive – he has a 10.0 K%, and his .358 ISO towers over the other players on that list (Aledmys Diaz is a distant second with a .271 ISO). Even against a righty, Arenado is one of the top hitting options on the slate.
10. Eddie Butler takes the mound for the Rockies at Coors on Saturday, and he probably rather wouldn’t. The Mets’ lineup is full of lefty power hitters (Granderson, Conforto, Duda, even Neil Walker), and Butler’s career .356 average, .445 on-base percentage, .627 slugging, and .451 wOBA all rank dead last among SPs against LHB (minimum 40 IP) since 2014. Not only that, but he’s one of just eight pitchers to walk more LHB than he’s struck out during that span (33 walks against just 23 strikeouts in 47.2 IP). Maybe he’ll fan 10 batters, issue no walks, and even that number out on Saturday. Or maybe not. That’s why they play the games.