10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for May 19th
Every day while doing MLB DFS research, I inevitably end up in a statistical wormhole, where I’ll stumble across some unexpected bits of information that are possibly helpful, but at the very least, are interesting in one way or another. Here are 10 notes for Thursday, May 19, 2016.
1. On Thursday, Chris Sale faces an Astros team that strikes out at the third-highest rate in MLB against LHP (25.8 K%). He may need the help in order to put up a K total that satisfies DFS players. Much has been made of Sale’s new pitch-to-contact approach, and for good reason. He hasn’t reached double figures in strikeouts in any of his eight starts this season (the longest stretch of games with 10 or fewer Ks for Sale since April 2013). And in his last start against the Yankees, he took the approach to a new level, inducing a minuscule 4.0% swinging strike rate to go with a 91.3% contact rate. You have to go all the way back to August 6, 2013 to find a SwStr% that low in any of Sale’s starts, and the Contact% is the highest in any game he’s ever started. How did it work out for Sale? He threw a complete game and allowed one run on one hit, and the White Sox won the game. The pitch-to-contact approach is real, and it looks like it’s here to stay.
2. Only one pitcher on Saturday’s slate has a K% above 30.0%, and it’s not Chris Sale (as we’ve discussed), or even Stephen Strasburg – it’s Colorado’s Jonathan Gray. It’s not just the strikeouts, either. Gray is limiting walks, as well. In fact, he’s one of three pitchers in MLB with a strikeout rate above 30.0% and a walk rate below 6.0%. The other two on that list are guys you might have heard of: Noah Syndergaard and Clayton Kershaw. Gray faces the Cardinals on Thursday (not at Coors, which is why we’re even talking about him), and against RHP, they lead MLB in ISO (.215) and rank 2nd in wRC+ (124) and wOBA (.360). This makes Gray too risky for cash. But with that kind of K upside, he’s an ideal tournament play.
3. Jason Hammel has an ERA of 1.77 this year. The only pitchers who rank higher are Jake Arrieta (1.29), Jose Quintana (1.54), Chris Sale (1.67), and Clayton Kershaw (1.74). The chief culprit, it seems, to Hammel’s lower-than-expected ERA is a much lower-than-expected HR/FB%. Hammel’s 2.9 HR/FB% is third-lowest in MLB, and given that he’s never sustained a HR/FB% below 9.7% for a full season in his career, his current 2016 mark seems poised to rise in the not-too-distant future.
4. Daniel Murphy visits CitiField on Thursday for a revenge game against the Mets, and one thing is certain: he’s going to put the ball in play. Murphy has struck out just five times this month (7.9 K%), and his contact rate of 96.2% contact rate in May is the best in baseball.
5. If Murphy’s teammate, Bryce Harper, is able to manage a hit off the Mets’ Matt Harvey, it’ll be his first. Harper is a career 0-for-20 with seven strikeouts against Harvey.
6. In the entire second half of his 2015 season (14 starts), Jeff Samardzija was only able to hold his opponents to three earned runs or fewer on four occasions. In his first eight starts as a San Francisco Giant, Samardzija has already allowed three or fewer earned runs on seven occasions. The one exception? His April 27 start against the San Diego Padres, who he faces again on Thursday. In that game, his worst start of the year (and it wasn’t even that bad), he allowed five earned on five hits, but still managed to strike out seven.
7. Samardzija figures to be extremely chalky on Thursday, and if Samardzija’s general effectiveness and the Padres’ general ineptitude against RHP isn’t enough to convince you, here’s this: Matt Kemp, one of the Padres’ two somewhat dangerous hitters (sorry Travis Jankowski – the other is Wil Myers) is chasing everything out of the zone as of late. Kemp has a 54.3% O-Swing% in May, nearly 7 percentage points higher than second-place Gerardo Parra (47.5%). The distance that separates Kemp and Parra is the same distance that separates Parra and the 17th player on the list, Marcell Ozuna (39.7%).
8. Joc Pederson has been heating up as of late (and if you need proof, just look at the number of “#jocjamz” tweets on @stevietpfl’s Twitter feed). On Wednesday, he’s in an ideal spot, as he faces the Angels’ Jhoulys Chacin, a groundball pitcher. Joc ranks second among active players against ground ball pitchers (minimum 200 PAs in this split) with a .289 ISO. Compare that to his .214 ISO versus flyball pitchers (still not bad, but much lower), and it’s clear which type of pitching Joc prefers. And it doesn’t stop there – Pederson hits for a higher average (.249 vs. GB pitchers, .193 vs. FB pitchers) and strikes out far less often (24.5 K% vs. GB pitchers, 34.0% vs. FB pitchers).
9. Adam Duvall has a .316 ISO against right-handed pitchers this year. He’s in good company, ranking eighth in MLB, behind only David Ortiz, Chris Carter, Anthony Rizzo, Manny Machado, Corey Dickerson, Robinson Cano, and Yoenis Cespedes. All seven of his home runs this year (and 14 of 15 for his career) have come off of right-handed pitchers, and on Thursday, he faces Cleveland starter Josh Tomlin, who owns a 1.78 HR/9 since 2015, the third-worst mark in all of MLB (minimum 100 IP).
10. When Stephen Strasburg has gotten off to an 0-1 count this year, he’s struck out 42 batters and walked just one. Only Clayton Kershaw 53:1 K/BB ratio is better in that split. He’s got his work cut out for him on Thursday, though, as he faces a Mets team who takes first strikes just 56.0% of the time, the best rate in MLB. Okay, so this one falls more on the “interesting” side of the spectrum than the “helpful” side (which is why it’s last on the list), but it’s worth paying attention to if you’re watching the game.
Good luck on Thursday, Grinders!