10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful MLB Notes for Tuesday, May 7th
Welcome to 10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes! In this column, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that day’s slate of MLB games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about today’s MLB plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 Notes for Tuesday, May 7th.
1. According to Statcast data from Baseball Savant, only one pitcher in MLB has thrown over 50 percent of his pitches in the “shadow” zone, the name Statcast applies to the outer edges of the strike zone. That player? Noah Syndergaard, the guy who singlehandedly won his last start for the Mets by homering and tossing a complete game shutout. Syndergaard hasn’t been right for much of the season – he had a 6.35 ERA entering his last start – but if he continues hitting the corners of the zone and generating weak contact (he currently ranks fifth among qualifiers with a 26.3 percent soft contact rate), his current .346 BABIP should fall. On Tuesday, Syndergaard has the privilege of facing the strikeout-happiest team in all of baseball (against righties, at least), the San Diego Padres (27.1% K rate, highest in MLB). He’s priced below Stephen Strasburg and Jose Berrios at both FanDuel and DraftKings, and he’s got the best matchup of the bunch, making him my preferred option for cash games.
2. Hyun-Jin Ryu has a crazy 19.5 K/BB from the beginning of the year to May 1st (Scherzer is second-best in MLB at 8.9 K/BB). He’s the only pitcher this century outside of Clayton Kershaw (2016) to post a 29.0 percent strikeout rate and a walk rate below 2 percent from the beginning of the season to May 1st (the date of his last start). Early in the season, Ryu was a model of efficiency, posting big games despite the always looming quick hook of Dodgers manager Dave Roberts. In his past two starts, however, he’s been allowed to throw 105 and 107 pitches. The results have been stellar, with Ryu striking out 16 batters and not issuing a walk in 15 combined innings over those two starts. Granted, he faced the Pirates and Giants, but even so, he fanned 9 and walked only 1 against the Brewers in the previous start. This isn’t a fluke, and Ryu deserves your attention. He’s priced below $10,000 at both FanDuel and DraftKings, and at Yahoo, his price has dropped from $52 in his last start to $45 in today’s matchup, for some reason. The Braves don’t represent a great matchup, but Ryu is at home, where he’s pitched to a 1.45 ERA (2.22 FIP) over the past two seasons. That’s the best mark in MLB (min. 60 IP): Better than Snell (1.59), better than deGrom (2.14), better than Scherzer (2.58). Okay, so you know what “best” means, so I’ll stop there. Play Ryu.
3. Caleb Smith’s current 26.9 percent K-BB% is tied for the best in Marlins franchise history, with the late Jose Fernandez (2016). Now, is Smith as talented as Fernandez? No, he’s not. Is his K-BB% going to remain this high? I’d bet against it. But Smith is in the midst of a real breakout season, and that shouldn’t be shrugged off. In fact, he’s one of only two pitchers in MLB (joining Max Scherzer) with 33 percent strikeouts and a FIP below 3.00. He’s just getting it done, and he’s doing it even in tough matchups: In a recent four-game stretch against the Phillies, Nationals, and Braves, Smith combined for 24 innings in which he struck out 29, walked only 6, and allowed just 5 earned runs. That’s important, as he faces a tough Cubs offense (tied for 2nd in MLB with a 118 wRC+). He’ll face them in frigid sub-50-degree temperatures, though, and with the wind blowing in. He’s priced aggressively by both FanDuel and DraftKings, which relegates him to tournaments, but he is a very good GPP play whose ownership shouldn’t be out of control due to the matchup.
4. Only one pitcher in all of MLB (min. 200 IP) has a sub-28.0 percent hard-hit rate and better than 26 percent strikeouts since 2017: Aaron Nola. Wait wait wait…hear me out. Yes, Nola has been disappointing to start the season, but his calling card has always been his ability to limit hard hits, and that’s a skill that hasn’t left him (29.7% hard hits in 2019). Plus, his HR/FB rate is out of control. Take a look:
2019 – 21.2% (sixth-highest in MLB among qualifiers)
2018 – 10.6%
2017 – 12.7%
2016 – 12.8%
2015 – 15.1% (in a small sample of only 15 games)
I’ll take the long track record and assume the 21.2% HR/FB will drop. Nola’s bad luck doesn’t stop there. He’s one of only two qualifiers (Eduardo Rodriguez being the other) with a .350+ BABIP despite a hard-hit rate below 30 percent. Nola’s strikeouts have dipped this year, which is a concern, but he’s an easy positive regression candidate. He isn’t cheap enough anywhere to really be in consideration for cash games, especially given the matchup (Cardinals rank sixth in MLB against RHBs with a 115 wRC+). He could easily beat the point totals of guys like Strasburg (against the Brewers) or Ryu (against the Braves) or Jon Lester (who could draw some ownership due to his matchup with the Marlins). Over the long term, I’m betting on a rebound from Nola, and it could start tonight.
5. Through his first 165 innings at the major-league level, Tyler Mahle has some of the craziest platoon splits you’ll ever see. Check it out:
vs. LHBs (70.1 IP): .410 wOBA, 14.8% BB rate, 2.30 HR/9, 48.6% GB rate, 45.2% hard hits
vs. RHBs (94.2 IP): .293 wOBA, 5.1% BB rate, 0.86 HR/9, 33.3% GB rate, 35.6% hard hits
If the Athletics roll out a bunch of righties (and they likely will, with Morales, Grossman, and Profar their only left-handed hitters), Mahle could be in play as a salary saver, particularly at DraftKings where, at $7,000, he’s only $100 more expensive than Taylor Clarke, a D-backs non-prospect who, through six starts in Triple-A this year, has a 6.12 ERA, which is identical to his 6.12 K/9. (That may be the most interesting note of the bunch, and this isn’t even a Taylor Clarke note).
6. If you’ve been playing DFS for, I don’t know, a week or longer, you get it: It’s generally a good idea to play hitters at Coors. There’s no need for a deep dive on Coors hitters, so here are a few quick notes:
— Joe Panik has a .407 batting average at Coors since his debut in 2015; that’s the highest mark in MLB over that span (min. 100 PA).
— Buster Posey has a 1.057 OPS for his career in Coors since 2009 (280 PA); that’s seventh-best in MLB.
WARNING: BvP NUMBERS AHEAD. AVERT YOUR EYES IF YOU ARE DEREK CARTY AND/OR HAVE AN AVERSION TO BvP STATS
—Brandon Crawford is one of the few Giants who hasn’t mastered Coors Field, with a .133 career ISO in Coors that ranks 73rd of the 100 hitters (min. 100 PA) at that park since 2011. He’s also a career 2-for-15 against Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela.
7. Alex Bregman is one of only two qualified hitters in MLB have posted a .240+ ISO and a sub-12.0% strikeout rate against lefties since 2017; the other is reigning AL MVP Mookie Betts. It still doesn’t feel like Bregman gets as much credit as he deserves, though that may change this year; he’s the only player in MLB with 9 home runs and a higher walk rate than strikeout rate. He’s feasted on left-handers throughout his career, and on Tuesday, he faces a hittable one in the Royals’ Danny Duffy. Duffy isn’t a terrible pitcher, but his platoon splits are significant (career .250 wOBA vs. LHPs; .334 wOBA vs. RHPs). With the Astros owning the highest implied team total at 5.63 (and on a slate with Coors Field in play, no less), Bregman becomes one of the top overall bats of the day.
8. But Bregman isn’t the only Astros bat deserving of your attention and American dollars: George Springer is putting a hurtin’ on baseballs these days. An astounding 55.1 percent of his batted balls have been of the hard-hit variety (95 mph or better), up nearly 18 percentage points from his 37.2 percent mark of 2018. Springer has also fared well historically with the platoon edge, boasting a .241 career ISO against southpaws (.195 vs. RHPs). There’s absolutely nothing sneaky about a top-of-the-order Astros stack. But that doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be high on your list of priorities, especially when you consider that Duffy will be followed by a bad Royals bullpen with a 5.14 ERA for the season, fifth-worst in MLB.
9. Javier Baez is hitting the ball to the opposite field 10 percentage points more than he did last season, and when he does, he’s hitting it with authority; his xwOBA of .756 on oppo hits is by far best in MLB, with Jorge Alfaro coming in a distant second at .641. When everyone was ready to write off Baez as a regression candidate, he’s upped his game and added a new wrinkle. Caleb Smith is a good pitcher, but Baez much prefers lefties (138 wRC+ and a 24.0% K rate vs. LHPs for his career; 96 and 29.5% vs. RHPs). On a day where his ownership is not likely to be crazy high (especially considering there’s a light wind blowing in at Wrigley Field), I love Baez as an upside tournament play. As with the Astros, the Cubs will have the added benefit of facing a horrible Marlins ‘pen whose 5.81 ERA is third-worst in MLB, not to mention 1.73 HR/9, second-most in MLB.
10. Mitch Moreland has 15 barrels; last season, he didn’t hit his 15th barrel until June 3rd. He ranks ninth in percentage of hard-hit balls at 54.4 percent (min. 50 BBE), where he’s situated nicely between Nelson Cruz and Javier Baez. He’s hitting the cover off the ball, and he gets to take hacks against David Hess, who has allowed a crazy 2.49 HR/9 against left-handed batters for his career (65.0 IP). Betts, Benintendi, Bogaerts, and J.D. are all obvious Red Sox bats worth rostering, but don’t sleep on Moreland’s power upside.
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Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ PlateIQ tool, FanGraphs, Baseball Prospectus, Baseball Savant, Brooks Baseball, and Baseball Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” MLB articles every Tuesday and Friday throughout the year, and feel free to leave a question or comment down below!