10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful NFL Notes for Thanksgiving
This NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between.
I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for Week 11.
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Week 12 (Thanksgiving Slate)
1. Kirk Cousins has posted 300+ yards in 23 of his first 56 NFL games; that’s the second-most in NFL history for any player in his first 56 games, trailing only Kurt Warner (who had 30 such games from 1999-2003. If only DFS had been around during the Greatest Show on Turf…). Just for some added context, Cousins’s 23 such games is six more than Peyton Manning and Tom Brady (7) combined. Yeah, it was a different era, yada yada yada, but there’s no disputing Cousins’s ability to rack up monster yardage totals. Coming off two straight 300-yard games – and against the stout pass defenses of Minnesota and New Orleans, no less – it’s highly unlikely that Cousins disappoints in the best matchup of the day for a QB, as he takes on the broken-down husk of the New York Giants defense, which ranks 29th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA. At just $7,100, Cousins is reasonably priced given his upside (he’s got five games of 25+ DraftKings points this year, second only to Russell Wilson). He’s likely to be the chalk, which means there’s merit for going elsewhere in tournaments, but in cash games, he’s an easy plug-and-play at QB.
2. In Weeks 1-9 (with left tackle Tyron Smith in the lineup), Dak Prescott was pressured on 33.2% of his dropbacks, 22nd-most among qualified QBs; in Weeks 10-11 (with Tyron Smith injured and out of the lineup), Prescott was pressured on 45.5% of dropbacks, second-most in the NFL behind only Tom Savage (46.0%). While under pressure in Weeks 10-11, Prescott had a QB rating of 9.2 (not a typo), completing just 35 percent of his passes for no touchdowns and three interceptions. It’s fair to say that Smith’s absence is being felt at least as much as Ezekiel Elliott, but luckily for Prescott, Smith has practiced all week and looks in good shape to play on Thanksgiving. Dallas’s line will certainly need to be at full strength to Chargers’ fearsome pass-rushing duo of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram, and even if they do, it’s hard to know how effectively the Cowboys will move the ball against the Chargers’ elite set of cornerbacks: Casey Heyward, Trevor Williams, and Desmond King all carry top-15 cornerback grades at Pro Football Focus. Prescott is a tournament play at best, but the fact that he’s at home matters: since 2016, no QB has more games of 18+ DK points at home than Prescott’s 10.
3. Samaje Perine has three games of 19+ carries this season, and while one of them was a success (he put up 127 yards and a score on 23 carries last week), the other two were disasters; in Week 2, he posted just 67 yards on 21 carries against the Rams, and in Week 3, he only managed 49 yards on 19 carries against the Raiders. Neither of these defenses has been particularly stout against the run this year, with the Rams giving up the sixth-most DraftKings points per game to RBs (26.8) and the Raiders giving up the fifth-most (27.1). Look: based on volume alone, Perine is an easy, don’t-overthink-it cash game play at DraftKings at just $5,000. He’ll certainly get the lion’s share of carries in a home game the Redskins should win easily (they’re favored by more than a touchdown at time of writing). But he’s proven to be an inefficient runner, even in exploitable matchups, and that means he can be faded if you want a different lineup build in tournaments.
4. Melvin Gordon has caught seven passes for 28 receiving yards over the past four games combined; over that stretch, Austin Ekeler has 114 receiving yards on 12 receptions. Ekeler’s snap count has steadily risen as of late, culminating in a season-high 44% snap share last week. Conversely, Gordon saw the field on just 51% of snaps, his second-lowest mark of the year. When you add Ekeler’s increased presence in the offense with Gordon’s at times brutal inefficiency (he’s averaged fewer than 3.0 yards per carry in five of 10 games this year), it makes Gordon a difficult ask at his steep $8,100 price tag at DraftKings. There is the chance that Gordon’s targets rise again, and Dallas has been generous to pass-catching backs (51 yards to Shane Vereen in Week 1; 59 to Andre Ellington in Week 3; 94 to Todd Gurley in Week 4; 76 to Chris Thompson in Week 8). However, if ownership is going to be high (as it should be with Gordon being the only high-priced back on the board), fading his inefficiency and diminishing role seems to be a more optimal approach.
Correction: Left out of the original article was the fact that Gordon’s usage took a hit last week because the game was a blowout more so than that he was ineffective. Ekeler’s season-high snap count was somewhat of a mirage and probably won’t repeat this week, unless you expect the Chargers to get up big. However, I do think Gordon’s role has diminished a bit since he was getting nearly 90% of the snaps earlier in the year. Prior to last week, Ekeler had seen 33%, 33%, and 34% of snaps. Full disclosure, though: I have ended up with Gordon in most of my lineups, simply because it’s not that difficult to fit him in.
5. Since Week 6, only three players have posted 67+ carries and 21+ receptions: Le’Veon Bell, Carlos Hyde, and … Jerick McKinnon. Now, there are some obvious differences here (Bell has 130 carries to McKinnon’s 67, for starters). But McKinnon has remained steadily involved in both Minnesota’s offensive game plan, despite the continued presence of Latavius “Matt Asiata 2.0” Murray. It only takes a semi-functioning set of eyeballs to see that McKinnon is the far more electric player, but I can tell you want numbers so here you go: over that same stretch (since Week 6), McKinnon has forced 19 missed tackles on just 67 carries. That’s a lot. For context, Bell has forced 17 missed tackles in 130 carries, and Mark Ingram has forced 19 in 113 carries. In 20 more carries than McKinnon over this stretch, Todd Gurley has forced 14 missed tackles, five fewer than McKinnon. McKinnon’s opponent on Thursday, the Detroit Lions, has allowed 27.6 DK points per game to opposing RBs, fourth-most in the NFL. And while there’s always the risk that he disappoints after Latavius Murray falls into the endzone twice, it’s worth noting that McKinnon has out-snapped Murray in every week dating back to Week 4; he’s bound to have another big day soon, and it could be on Thanksgiving day.
6. If Adam Thielen reaches five receptions on Thursday, he’ll tie Cris Carter’s Vikings franchise record with 11 straight five-catch games. Now, before you start thinking I’m equating Thielen with the Hall of Famer, I can’t leave out this fact: Carter had 13 TDs during his 11-game streak (“All he does is catch touchdowns”); Thielen has had three during his 10-game streak. You don’t have to squint too hard to realize that, as good as he’s been, Thielen actually may be due for some positive touchdown regression: his 31.7% team market share on passes inside the red zone ranks fifth in the NFL behind only Davante Adams, Jimmy Graham, Dez Bryant, and DeAndre Hopkins among qualified receivers. On Thursday, he’s in an elite matchup in the slot against the Lions’ Quandre Diggs, who, since Week 2, has allowed a 143.2 QB rating, worst in the NFL among slot corners. Sure, ownership will likely be high (which makes a Stefon Diggs pivot interesting in tournaments), but given the floor, there aren’t many better places to allocate your funds on this three-game slate.
7. Since 2015, Golden Tate has scored 13 touchdowns while indoors; since 2015, Golden Tate has scored zero touchdowns outdoors. It makes sense, given that Tate’s game depends largely on catching short passes, then using his quickness and burst to break big plays after the catch. On Thursday, the matchup is a bit better than it appears at first glance. Tate has played out of the slot on over 80 percent of his passes this year, and Minnesota’s shutdown corner, Xavier Rhodes, has only been in the slot on four percent of his snaps. Instead, Tate will be matched up with Terence Newman, which isn’t a gimme matchup at all, but which is still far preferable to Rhodes. On a three-game slate, Tate is a bargain at just $6,200 at DraftKings, making him a building block for cash games and tournaments.
8. In the past two weeks, Josh Doctson has been targeted 20 yards downfield six times; only DeAndre Hopkins, Antonio Brown, and Brandin Cooks have been targeted deep more frequently than Doctson over that stretch. True, he’s only caught one of those targets, but only one was deemed “catchable” by Pro Football Focus. He’s a boom-or-bust, big play threat in a matchup perfectly suited for boom-or-bust, big play receivers, as the Giants have allowed 34 pass completions of 20 yards or more since Week 3, the most in the NFL during that stretch. He’s staying on the field constantly, as well; prior to Week 7, Doctson never exceeded 55 percent of snaps, but from that point on, he’s played 87%, 81%, 93%, 95%, and 90% of Washington’s snaps. With the lack of productivity keeping his price reasonable, and with Terrelle Pryor now on injured reserve, now is the time for the “big game” that keeps eluding Doctson.
9. Speaking of long gains downfield, Vernon Davis has nine gains of 20+ yards this year, third-most among tight ends and behind only Travis Kelce (13) and Rob Gronkowski (10). While Kelce is in a class by himself, Davis has been even more reliable for big plays than Gronkowski, needing almost 100 fewer pass routes to post his nine deep catches (Davis has run 205 routes this year; Gronkowski has run 301). But the real selling point here, the reason why Davis should probably be the first player you lock into cash games, is the matchup. The Giants are a legendarily positive matchup for opposing tight ends, allowing a touchdown to a tight end in every game until Week 11, when they held Travis Kelce scoreless but still allowed him to be the TE1 on the week. The Giants rank 31st in DVOA against deep passes, and 26th in passes over the middle. It’s tough to envision a scenario where “Big Vern” doesn’t catch 5-6 passes for 60-70 yards, which would be a fine return on investment, especially given the upside is much higher.
10. Only one tight end in the NFL has a streak of six games of 7+ targets this year, and it’s not Gronk, Kelce, Ertz – it’s Kyle Rudolph. Davis is going to garner insane ownership, and while it is justified, Rudolph is severely underpriced at DraftKings at just $4,100 if these targets continue. The matchup is sneaky good, as well, as the Lions rank 29th in DVOA against the tight end position. He’s not an exciting player to roster, but Rudolph makes an excellent pivot for GPPs.
If you’ve made it this far, congratulations! It’s time to play a bit of Thanksgiving NFL trivia, with the winner getting a brand new, soft, stylish RotoGrinders t-shirt sent right to your very doorstep. In order to play, just leave your answer in the comments thread below. First to answer the question correctly wins the t-shirt. One guess only, please. I’ll announce the winner as soon as I see it listed. Here we go…
In note #10 above, I mentioned Kyle Rudolph’s current six-game streak of games with 7+ targets. Since the start of the 2015 season, only one tight end had a streak longer than Rudolph’s active streak of six such games. Who is that tight end?
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Thanks for reading, and Happy Thanksgiving! Stats from this article were pulled from RotoGrinders’ Daily Research Console, Player Profiler, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, NFL.com, and Pro Football Reference.
Check back for more “10 Notes” NFL articles throughout this football season, and feel free to drop a comment below if you want to leave any feedback or keep the discussion going!