10 Definitely Interesting, Possibly Helpful Notes for Week 1
Each week during the NFL season, I’ll work to uncover some interesting bits of information that might shed some light on players from that week’s slate of NFL games. This is not a picks column, nor is it a “fun facts” article – it’s something in between. I hope you enjoy it, and I hope it helps you think about this week’s NFL plays in a new way as you build your DFS lineups. Here are 10 notes for NFL Week 1:
1. Last season, DeAngelo Williams had four games of 20+ fantasy points, which tied him with Adrian Peterson and Devonta Freeman for most in the NFL. He finished the season ranking fourth in the NFL with 191 fantasy points, and this despite getting just 200 carries. He made the most of a limited work load, becoming just the fifth player in NFL history to record 900+ yards and 11+ TDs on 200 or fewer carries, joining Maurice Jones-Drew (2006), Mercury Morris (1973 and 1972), Franco Harris (1972), and Joe Perry (1953). You could argue that those numbers are bound to regress, or you could argue that Williams is an aging running back whose skills have been on the decline for years. But there’s no denying the volume Williams will see as long as Le’Veon Bell is out, and the Week 1 matchup is solid, as the Redskins ranked 22nd in rush defense DVOA in 2015.
2. Two receivers in NFL history have recorded seasons of 1400 yards and 14 TDs within their first two years in the league: Jerry Rice (1,570 yards and 15 TDs in 1986) and Allen Robinson (1,400 yards and 14 TDs in 2015). Robinson busted out in a big way last season, largely on the strength of Jacksonville seemingly being in garbage time all the time (11 of his 14 TDs came when the Jaguars were trailing, and 11 came when Blake Bortles was throwing out of the shotgun). The good news (for fantasy players, not Robinson or the Jaguars, or Jaguars fans) is that there’s a good chance they’ll be playing from behind again on Sunday against the Packers, putting Robinson in line for a big day.
3. Drew Brees has 19 career home games of 300+ yards, 3+ TDs, and zero interceptions. That’s the most by any QB since 1960 (as far back as Pro Football Reference tracks this data), and it’s not close – Peyton Manning ranks second and is five behind Brees, with 14 such games. In his career, Brees has more such games than Roger Staubach (1), Joe Montana (1), Dan Marino (2), Phil Simms (2), John Elway (2), Steve Young (3), and Brett Favre (7) combined. Obviously, that stat says more about how the NFL has changed than about Brees in particular, but there’s no denying that Brees at home is a thing. If you can’t bring yourself to play #DakInCash and really want to spend up at QB, Brees makes for a fine cash game option – in a game with one of the highest projected totals of the week, there’s almost no way Brees doesn’t put up big numbers.
4. If you do roll with Brees, you’ll more than likely want to pair him with one of his receivers, and therein lies the problem: Brees spreads the ball around so much that it caps the upside of his pass catchers. For example: Brandin Cooks only had 3 games of 10 or more targets last year. Here are a few other players with at least 3 games of 10+ targets – Jacob Tamme, Cecil Shorts, James Jones, Ted Ginn, Davante Adams, Brian Hartline. Julio Jones had double-digit targets in 14 games. Cooks is rarely a bad play, but he’s rarely an elite play, which makes him more viable for cash games than tournaments.
5. Adrian Peterson has exceeded 20 rushing attempts in 57 career games. He’s scored touchdowns in 38 of those games, including multiple touchdowns in 12 of them. In fact, his 19 multi-TD games are the most by any running back since he entered the league in 2008. Given the Vikings muddled QB situation, Peterson seems assured of 20+ carries on Sunday, and while the Titans could stack the box against him on Sunday, let’s be honest – Christian Ponder was never exactly the main focus of the defense, and that didn’t stop Peterson from being productive (from reaching 2,097 yards in 2012 with Ponder behind center, in fact).
6. A.J. Green had 1,297 yards and 10 TDs last season, and it feels like it went a bit unnoticed given some of the other historically productive WRs currently in the league. Green is one of six players all time (joining Lance Alworth, Randy Moss, Dez Bryant, Larry Fitzgerald, and Demaryius Thomas) with three 1,200+ yard, 10+ TD seasons in his first five seasons as a pro. He has three of the five such seasons in Bengals franchise history – Carl Pickens (1995) and Chad Johnson (2003) had the other seasons. He’ll be on “Revis Island” on Sunday, and that used to mean something, but the 2015 version of Darelle Revis was Pro Football Focus’s 35th-ranked cornerback – not terrible, but not someone to shy away from. Given the number of other high-end WRs that will likely draw massive ownership (Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, Jr., DeAndre Hopkins, Antonio Brown), Green could be an interesting lower-owned option for tournaments.
7. Only one player in the NFL was targeted 7+ times in all 16 of his games in 2016, and it wasn’t Julio, or Beckham, or Nuke, or Antonio Brown. It was Brandon Marshall, who will be re-united (sort of, even though he never left) with Ryan Fitzpatrick in 2016. In Week 1, Marshall will be covered primarily by Dre Kirkpatrick according to Pro Football Focus. PFF ranked Kirkpatrick 104th out of 111 cornerbacks in 2016, making Marshall, like Green, a receiver with upside who will be lower-owned than many of the other big names.
8. In the past three seasons, Matt Ryan has two games of 300+ yards and 3 TDs…the same number as the 49ers’ Colin Kaepernick (yes, there was a time when Kaepernick was kind of good at football) and the Rams’ Austin Davis (yes, there was a time that Austin Davis was an NFL starting QB). Eight QBs had twice that many games of 300+ TDs and 3 TDs in 2015 alone. Matt Ryan is a big name (and Matty Ice is a terrible nickname), but at this point in his career, his upside cannot be trusted.
9. From Week 10 on (after the Ravens bye in Week 9) in 2015, Kamar Aiken had 80 targets, the same number as Julio Jones. Here is the list of players with more targets than Aiken during that stretch: Antonio Brown (91), Jarvis Landry (85), and Brandon Marshall (82). That’s it. On Sunday, Aiken will man the slot and most likely be covered by Nickell Robey-Coleman (per Pro Football Focus) while the Bills’ tandem of elite CBs (Ronald Darby, Stephon Gilmore) should cover Steve Smith and Mike Wallace on the outside. Aiken is underpriced across the industry, and while it’s never fun to roster players from the Ravens, he made great strides toward the end of 2016 and appears to be ready for a breakout year.
10. Golden Tate has ranked in the top five of the NFL in yards every year over the past four seasons. Only one player has cracked the top five in YAC on even two occasions during that stretch (Josh Gordon, 2012 and 2013). Calvin Johnson and his 149 targets are now absent from the Lions offense, which could lead to a bigger role for Tate in 2016. The Lions’ matchup with the Colts could easily turn into a shootout, and Vontae Davis, the Colts’ best cornerback, will be out of action. Most will likely roster Marvin Jones if they’re going to roster a Lions WR (due to his ridiculously low Week 1 price of $5500 at FanDuel and $4600 at DraftKings), which means Tate could see lower ownership than is expected in a near-perfect matchup.
Thanks for reading! Stats from this article were pulled from Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, and Pro Football Reference.
Be sure to check back on Thursdays this NFL season for more “10 Notes” articles!