Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Monday, September 14th
Maybe you were disappointed by (enter the name of the bastard who ruined your daily fantasy football Sunday in Week 1) yesterday. Daily fantasy baseball exists on Monday so you don’t have to wait a full week to avenge your losses. This column exists to enhance your prowess at picking the exact pitcher(s) who will help you accomplish your goal (you know, that whole avenging thing).
For those new to this column or DFS baseball in general, what we try to do here is use advanced stats to come to conclusions that casual fans may not when they look at things like Wins or even ERA, which don’t always paint the correct picture. Sometimes we just enforce the obvious conclusion, but occasionally we discover some interesting things and find ourselves off the beaten path, which can be a good thing.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | -4.8 | 3.84 | 6.02 | 1.25 | 1.01 | 3.47 | 3.28 | WAS | 92 | 96 | 79 | 22.5% | 6.9% | 19.4% | 12.5% | 10.3% |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 2.1 | 2.76 | 6.28 | 1.76 | 0.94 | 2.67 | 4.48 | KAN | 93 | 103 | 95 | 22.1% | 8.1% | 20.2% | 19.7% | 7.5% |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | -5.6 | 3.87 | 5.77 | 1.41 | 0.94 | 3.81 | 4.72 | TAM | 99 | 112 | 112 | 21.1% | 7.8% | 22.8% | 12.5% | 12.6% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.9 | 2.15 | 7.23 | 1.81 | 0.89 | 1.78 | 1.97 | COL | 77 | 64 | 48 | 30.4% | 5.7% | 19.5% | 10.0% | 11.1% |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 5 | 3.37 | 6.68 | 1.51 | 1.08 | 3.14 | 3.55 | HOU | 93 | 103 | 119 | 21.8% | 6.8% | 21.8% | 10.7% | 11.6% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 7.7 | 4.25 | 6.08 | 1.5 | 0.94 | 4.1 | 3.82 | CLE | 110 | 99 | 128 | 17.7% | 7.6% | 21.9% | 11.5% | 7.5% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | -1 | 4.23 | 5.78 | 1.32 | 1.04 | 4.29 | 4.25 | BAL | 110 | 87 | 156 | 20.4% | 7.9% | 23.8% | 13.2% | 13.5% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 6.2 | 4.21 | 5.08 | 1.27 | 0.94 | 4.51 | 2.09 | NYY | 105 | 102 | 90 | 21.0% | 6.4% | 19.1% | 14.5% | 10.1% |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 2.4 | 3.62 | 6.42 | 1.87 | 0.85 | 3.42 | 4.66 | SEA | 104 | 98 | 99 | 22.0% | 9.3% | 18.7% | 11.2% | 7.9% |
| James Shields | SDG | -6.9 | 3.59 | 6.42 | 1.3 | 1.09 | 3.61 | 4.55 | ARI | 97 | 95 | 113 | 21.7% | 8.4% | 20.6% | 16.0% | 9.7% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 2.3 | 4.07 | 5.26 | 1.06 | 1.09 | 4.23 | SDG | 80 | 91 | 87 | ||||||
| John Danks | CHW | -6.3 | 4.63 | 5.99 | 1.06 | 1.08 | 4.48 | 3.66 | OAK | 91 | 96 | 98 | 17.3% | 7.4% | 19.5% | 8.8% | 7.3% |
| Jonathan Gray | COL | -4.3 | 4.13 | 4.44 | 1.47 | 0.89 | 3.63 | 4.37 | LOS | 114 | 107 | 121 | 21.2% | 9.2% | 23.4% | 9.1% | 13.9% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | -4.4 | 3.48 | 6.27 | 1.14 | 1.01 | 3.29 | 3.78 | PHI | 88 | 85 | 77 | 22.3% | 6.6% | 20.4% | 10.1% | 11.7% |
| Justin Nicolino | FLA | 2.6 | 5.45 | 6.01 | 1.4 | 0.88 | 4.52 | 5.41 | NYM | 101 | 101 | 138 | 14.6% | 8.1% | 20.6% | 9.2% | 8.6% |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 5.5 | 3.85 | 5.7 | 1.15 | 1.04 | 3.87 | 4.73 | BOS | 86 | 98 | 135 | 18.6% | 7.2% | 20.0% | 13.5% | 8.9% |
| Keyvius Sampson | CIN | 1.9 | 4.73 | 4.39 | 1.17 | 0.87 | 5.12 | 5.47 | SFO | 114 | 108 | 131 | 17.8% | 10.7% | 21.9% | 9.4% | 13.9% |
| Kyle Lobstein | DET | 2.4 | 4.71 | 5.69 | 1.57 | 1.05 | 4 | 4.68 | MIN | 103 | 97 | 103 | 17.4% | 8.5% | 18.8% | 11.5% | 9.7% |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | 1.6 | 3.7 | 8. | 1.24 | 0.88 | 4.71 | FLA | 88 | 81 | 77 | ||||||
| Scott Kazmir | HOU | 1.6 | 3.66 | 6. | 1.19 | 1.08 | 3.85 | 4.79 | TEX | 101 | 88 | 91 | 20.4% | 8.2% | 19.0% | 11.7% | 7.4% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | -6.2 | 3.6 | 6.69 | 1.97 | 1.08 | 3.33 | 4.91 | CHW | 84 | 92 | 85 | 19.6% | 6.9% | 19.8% | 9.4% | 9.1% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | -3.9 | 3.78 | 5.79 | 1.08 | 0.85 | 3.6 | 5.3 | ANA | 89 | 99 | 92 | 19.6% | 6.7% | 20.5% | 14.0% | 7.1% |
| Tim Hudson | SFO | 4.5 | 3.84 | 6.04 | 2.21 | 0.87 | 3.45 | 2.07 | CIN | 85 | 91 | 84 | 18.9% | 5.8% | 19.6% | 9.1% | 5.8% |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 2.8 | 4.2 | 5.35 | 1.62 | 1.05 | 4.53 | 3.35 | DET | 104 | 101 | 116 | 21.4% | 10.1% | 16.3% | 6.6% | 14.4% |
Aaron Nola has gone at least seven innings with six strikeouts and one run or less in three of his last four starts (of course, in the other start, he was pounded). Overall, he has an above average 14.5 K-BB% with an ERA not too far from his estimators. He gets a below average offense that strikes out above average and has just fallen apart lately. They do have a 13.0 HR/FB vs RHP, but keep an eye on the status of Bryce Harper, who had to leave Sunday’s game.
Carlos Carrasco showed some rust after nearly a three week layoff in his return that lasted less than three innings, but the good news is that his velocity was stable, so we don’t have much reason to expect less than his elite 22.3 K-BB% going forward once his mechanics are back to normal. Kansas City may diminish his K rate tonight, but they are a below average road offense in an unfavorable run environment.
Clayton Kershaw won’t have two catches for 38 yards after you sacrifice several positions in order to fit him. He should not even be allowed to face the Rockies at home, where he has a 31.9 K-BB% since last season. The Rockies are the worst road offense in the majors (18.1 K-BB%) and the worst against LHP (23.2 K%, 8.2 HR/FB) along with a 28.6 K% over the last week.
Cole Hamels remains inconsistent since the trade to Texas, but has at least pitched six inning or more in each start and less than seven innings only twice after changing homes. He’s also struck out at least eight in three of his last five starts, but a total of five in the other two. Houston is a below average road offense (15.0 K-BB%), but above average vs LHP (13.8 HR/FB) with a 22.1 K%. While he has a good chance at having one of his above average strikeout games, it is one of the more difficult park adjusted matchups of the day.
Erasmo Ramirez has struggled over the last month and we’ll get into that later, but in the meantime, he has otherwise been about a league average pitcher this year and actually struck out a season high nine in his last start, though he hasn’t gone more than five innings in any of his last three. He faces an above average offense on the road and against RHP, but not a terrifying one that adjusts to a slightly favorable matchup in the negative run environment.
Garrett Richards was expected to turn things around if you’ve been a regular reader, but his last four starts have been interesting to say the least. He’s struck out 20 of 57 in 14.2 innings with five runs in two of them and in the alternating two, he walked eight with five strikeouts and 11 runs in 11 innings. One of the bad starts was against Toronto and his overall SwStr rate is high, while his hard contact rate is very low. That allows us to continue to remain positive. Seattle is about an average offense vs RHP, though they hit the ball hard (16.2 Hard-Soft%), but strike out more than average and park adjust very favorably here.
Jonathan Gray has a 3.63 xFIP, higher than his 2.35 road ERA in just three road starts, but also an 18.0 K-BB%. That’s a severely small sample to go on, but it’s a start for a minimally priced pitcher despite being on a pitch count. The Dodgers are a top home offense and good against RHP (13.7 HR/FB), but adjust down to neutral in a negative run environment at home.
Jordan Zimmermann has allowed exactly one ER in each of his last three starts and five of his last seven with an increased K% in the 2nd half that almost has his rate for the year up to league average. He has an excellent 18.9 K-BB% on the road since last season and has a great matchup against a home offense and one with a 14.2 K-BB% vs RHP. The Phillies have just a 6.3 Hard-Soft% and it’s a great overall park adjusted matchup.
Kevin Gausman had his first good start in three outings, allowing just one run in five innings at Yankee Stadium with five strikeouts last time out. He does have some league average tendencies (league average K%, league average K-BB% at home since last season) with the dreaded potential label. He has done a great job managing contact this year though (3.3 Hard-Soft%). The Red Sox are a hot (18.6 Hard-Soft%, 17.2 HR/FB over the last week) offense with just a 17.3 K-BB% vs RHP, but are below average on the road and only a slightly unfavorable park adjusted matchup here.
Logan Verrett gets the start in Harvey’s spot tonight. The last time that happened, he shut out the Rockies for eight innings in Colorado with eight strikeouts. He has a 13.4 K-BB% overall with most of his work out of the bullpen in long relief (many multiple inning outings). On many other teams he’d at least be in competition for a back end of rotation spot, but for the Mets, he’s a fill-in or 6th starter. He faces an awful offense (14.0 K-BB% on the road) with a 6.9 Hard-Soft% vs RHP and just a 5.1 HR/FB (3.3 Hard-Soft%) over the last week.
Taijuan Walker has allowed nine runs with just five strikeouts over his last two starts and seems to bomb whenever I waste time on him. However, despite a diminished K% over the last month, his rate for the year is still above average with an 18.7 K-BB% at home since last season, though a 16.1 HR/FB at Safeco is a problem. He’s also in a great spot against a below average road offense and great park adjusted matchup overall with the Angels.
Tim Hudson had a great start in Arizona in his first one since July. While we won’t expect a lot of strikeouts out of him, he still keeps the ball on the ground 56.1% of the time and pitches in a great park where he will face a very poor road team and below average one vs RHP. The Reds have a 23.6 K% over the last week.
Tyler Duffey has been inconsistent, but found some success as a major league starters (six innings with two ERs or less and at least seven strikeouts in three of six starts). Control has been his main issue as he has a below average 10.6 K-BB% despite an above average strikeout rate. Although he gets Detroit at home, they are a slightly above average road offense in a positive run environment tonight, making them one of the more difficult park adjusted matchups tonight.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Sonny Gray (.243 BABIP – 78.8 LOB% – 8.3 HR/FB) – We could quibble with each of the last two rates as well, but we won’t in Oakland. He has a decent matchup, but gets a huge park downgrade and his underlying numbers have actually been below average over the last month. He would seem over-priced for the daily fantasy production you would expect from him.
Scott Kazmir (.266 BABIP – 77.2 LOB% – 8.6 HR/FB) – A lot of his numbers are from Oakland, though the BABIP may be sustainable for a Houston team that shifts frequently. He’s just often over-priced as if he’s still pitching in a great park and has an overall neutral matchup tonight.
Edinson Volquez (.287 BABIP – 71.4 LOB% – 7.0 HR/FB) – Although his brand of baseball, including the HR rate is more susceptible to sustainability at home, he is not at home tonight and Cleveland is a very disciplined who may severely cap his upside here.
Justin Nicolino (.287 BABIP – 76.6 LOB% – 7.3 HR/FB) – He also has struck out just two more batters (16) than he’s walked (14) in 48.1 innings.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
James Shields is a HR prone pitcher with a terrible walk rate over the last month in a park that greatly enhances power and overall offense.
C.C. Sabathia has walked seven of his last 37 batters and is now wearing a knee brace enabling him to remain active. This does not inspire confidence.
Eduardo Rodriguez has just a 15.5 K% over the last month, with an ERA backed by an 82.2 LOB%.
John Danks may occasionally throw nine innings of one run ball, like he did in his last start, but more often than not, Danks gets spanked and low strikeout potential falls even lower against Oakland (16.9 K% vs LHP).
Jeremy Hellickson hasn’t pitched in the majors nearly a month and hasn’t often pitched well when he has. His lone minor league start eight days ago was very mediocre.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 20.6% | 6.1% | Home | 22.5% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 2.1% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 27.1% | 5.5% | Home | 27.0% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 20.0% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 19.6% | 6.4% | Road | 18.3% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 13.6% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 32.7% | 4.3% | Home | 35.4% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 38.3% | 5.0% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 24.1% | 7.2% | Home | 24.3% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 19.0% | 3.5% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | 17.7% | 8.5% | Road | 18.5% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 13.6% | 2.3% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 18.0% | 7.0% | Road | 17.7% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 7.3% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | 18.2% | 7.9% | Home | 18.9% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 21.1% | 7.6% | Road | 22.2% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 14.6% |
| James Shields | Padres | 22.1% | 6.6% | Road | 21.5% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 22.8% | 13.9% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Diamondbacks | 19.4% | 7.1% | Home | 18.8% | 7.0% | L14 Days | ||
| John Danks | White Sox | 15.3% | 7.8% | Home | 16.8% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 3.0% |
| Jonathan Gray | Rockies | 19.4% | 7.9% | Road | 27.9% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 15.9% | 9.1% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | 21.2% | 4.1% | Road | 22.8% | 3.7% | L14 Days | 26.2% | 11.9% |
| Justin Nicolino | Marlins | 8.0% | 7.0% | Road | 10.0% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 8.0% | 6.0% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 20.1% | 6.9% | Home | 18.6% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 7.9% |
| Keyvius Sampson | Reds | 18.5% | 11.0% | Road | 14.9% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 15.0% |
| Kyle Lobstein | Tigers | 13.3% | 8.2% | Road | 15.6% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 8.7% |
| Logan Verrett | Mets | 20.5% | 7.1% | Home | 14.0% | 9.3% | L14 Days | ||
| Scott Kazmir | Astros | 22.1% | 7.0% | Road | 21.0% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 20.5% | 7.5% | Road | 21.7% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 11.5% | 5.8% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 21.9% | 6.9% | Home | 25.3% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 11.6% | 7.0% |
| Tim Hudson | Giants | 14.3% | 4.8% | Home | 16.1% | 4.1% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Duffey | Twins | 21.6% | 10.8% | Home | 21.4% | 19.1% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 8.9% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | Road | 22.2% | 8.4% | RH | 21.7% | 8.6% | L7Days | 24.8% | 9.3% |
| Royals | Road | 16.3% | 5.5% | RH | 15.3% | 6.3% | L7Days | 13.4% | 6.0% |
| Rays | Home | 22.7% | 7.2% | LH | 22.1% | 7.4% | L7Days | 21.2% | 6.7% |
| Rockies | Road | 24.2% | 6.1% | LH | 23.2% | 7.6% | L7Days | 28.6% | 7.9% |
| Astros | Road | 22.5% | 7.5% | LH | 22.1% | 9.4% | L7Days | 18.7% | 6.1% |
| Indians | Home | 18.7% | 9.5% | RH | 18.6% | 8.9% | L7Days | 18.9% | 8.4% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.8% | 7.1% | LH | 22.9% | 5.8% | L7Days | 22.8% | 11.8% |
| Yankees | Road | 18.8% | 8.7% | RH | 19.4% | 8.3% | L7Days | 18.8% | 4.9% |
| Mariners | Home | 22.9% | 8.1% | RH | 21.7% | 8.6% | L7Days | 22.2% | 9.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.2% | 8.0% | RH | 20.7% | 7.6% | L7Days | 21.9% | 7.3% |
| Padres | Road | 21.6% | 6.9% | RH | 21.5% | 6.5% | L7Days | 22.0% | 5.7% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.1% | 7.6% | LH | 16.9% | 8.3% | L7Days | 20.6% | 9.9% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.2% | 8.4% | RH | 20.5% | 9.3% | L7Days | 23.5% | 10.8% |
| Phillies | Home | 20.1% | 6.7% | RH | 20.3% | 6.1% | L7Days | 23.1% | 7.0% |
| Mets | Home | 20.1% | 8.4% | LH | 23.2% | 8.1% | L7Days | 18.5% | 11.5% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.1% | 7.6% | RH | 17.3% | 7.4% | L7Days | 20.5% | 6.7% |
| Giants | Home | 18.3% | 7.8% | RH | 18.5% | 7.5% | L7Days | 19.1% | 11.0% |
| Twins | Home | 19.2% | 7.0% | LH | 20.6% | 7.0% | L7Days | 18.2% | 11.3% |
| Marlins | Road | 19.9% | 5.9% | RH | 19.0% | 6.2% | L7Days | 16.6% | 8.0% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.5% | 8.4% | LH | 22.1% | 7.7% | L7Days | 21.8% | 10.5% |
| White Sox | Home | 21.0% | 6.9% | RH | 20.3% | 6.4% | L7Days | 22.6% | 6.9% |
| Angels | Road | 18.6% | 7.2% | RH | 19.4% | 7.0% | L7Days | 20.5% | 6.2% |
| Reds | Road | 19.7% | 7.3% | RH | 19.2% | 8.0% | L7Days | 23.6% | 10.4% |
| Tigers | Road | 21.9% | 7.1% | RH | 20.0% | 6.7% | L7Days | 21.5% | 7.7% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 17.5% | 12.3% | 9.2% | Home | 17.9% | 14.8% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 13.3% | 13.3% |
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | 19.2% | 10.1% | 5.7% | Home | 19.5% | 12.6% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 22.8% | 17.6% | 9.8% | Road | 20.9% | 20.2% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | 20.2% | 8.3% | 11.6% | Home | 20.0% | 9.4% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 8.3% | 0.0% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | 21.9% | 9.4% | 10.3% | Home | 24.5% | 14.8% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | 18.7% | 8.6% | 6.5% | Road | 19.6% | 11.8% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | 23.2% | 11.2% | 15.0% | Road | 23.3% | 10.8% | 18.9% | L14 Days | 30.8% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | Rays | 19.6% | 12.0% | 11.2% | Home | 18.5% | 10.7% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 11.5% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Garrett Richards | Angels | 19.4% | 8.1% | 10.2% | Road | 19.7% | 8.2% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| James Shields | Padres | 21.1% | 12.7% | 10.1% | Road | 19.2% | 13.7% | 13.7% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 26.7% | 13.3% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Diamondbacks | 20.5% | 12.4% | 4.0% | Home | 20.1% | 10.0% | 4.2% | L14 Days | |||
| John Danks | White Sox | 20.1% | 10.4% | 8.2% | Home | 19.4% | 9.8% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonathan Gray | Rockies | 22.9% | 6.7% | 13.3% | Road | 24.3% | 6.3% | 18.8% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | 22.5% | 7.8% | 12.7% | Road | 23.4% | 10.3% | 15.5% | L14 Days | 11.5% | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Justin Nicolino | Marlins | 19.5% | 7.3% | 9.1% | Road | 23.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 6.7% | 13.3% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | 20.8% | 9.5% | 11.2% | Home | 21.3% | 9.0% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Keyvius Sampson | Reds | 24.2% | 11.9% | 21.4% | Road | 26.5% | 5.9% | 17.6% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 10.0% | 20.0% |
| Kyle Lobstein | Tigers | 18.4% | 8.8% | 9.8% | Road | 17.0% | 4.2% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 17.6% | 20.0% | 13.3% |
| Logan Verrett | Mets | 14.6% | 11.8% | 5.9% | Home | 9.1% | 27.3% | 0.0% | L14 Days | |||
| Scott Kazmir | Astros | 20.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | Road | 21.6% | 12.4% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 11.8% | 5.9% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | 17.1% | 9.1% | 7.9% | Road | 15.1% | 6.0% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | 23.5% | 12.7% | 10.8% | Home | 21.2% | 16.1% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 20.6% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Tim Hudson | Giants | 21.2% | 11.5% | 7.0% | Home | 20.7% | 10.7% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Duffey | Twins | 18.3% | 10.3% | 13.8% | Home | 8.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% | L14 Days | 9.7% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | Road | 22.0% | 12.8% | 9.1% | RH | 20.8% | 13.0% | 8.6% | L7Days | 19.0% | 8.5% | 10.6% |
| Royals | Road | 22.7% | 8.9% | 9.9% | RH | 21.2% | 9.3% | 9.9% | L7Days | 24.0% | 10.5% | 15.8% |
| Rays | Home | 21.3% | 10.8% | 9.5% | LH | 20.7% | 12.3% | 11.5% | L7Days | 17.9% | 14.1% | 16.9% |
| Rockies | Road | 19.9% | 12.5% | 11.1% | LH | 21.7% | 8.2% | 9.4% | L7Days | 16.6% | 13.3% | 23.3% |
| Astros | Road | 21.3% | 11.6% | 10.8% | LH | 19.4% | 13.8% | 8.8% | L7Days | 17.2% | 14.8% | 7.4% |
| Indians | Home | 23.9% | 8.7% | 10.7% | RH | 21.4% | 10.0% | 12.4% | L7Days | 19.9% | 17.2% | 6.9% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.6% | 16.6% | 8.0% | LH | 21.1% | 12.0% | 9.8% | L7Days | 23.8% | 28.3% | 17.0% |
| Yankees | Road | 21.2% | 12.4% | 8.0% | RH | 20.9% | 13.9% | 9.2% | L7Days | 22.9% | 17.9% | 19.4% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.2% | 12.6% | 8.8% | RH | 20.0% | 12.6% | 6.8% | L7Days | 16.4% | 14.3% | 11.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 21.7% | 10.7% | 7.6% | RH | 21.5% | 10.9% | 8.6% | L7Days | 19.4% | 21.4% | 4.8% |
| Padres | Road | 19.5% | 9.0% | 9.7% | RH | 19.8% | 10.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 23.4% | 11.5% | 9.8% |
| Athletics | Road | 20.6% | 10.6% | 8.5% | LH | 18.9% | 8.0% | 11.4% | L7Days | 19.5% | 14.1% | 7.8% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.3% | 13.4% | 8.6% | RH | 21.6% | 13.7% | 9.9% | L7Days | 25.0% | 14.3% | 16.1% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.9% | 10.5% | 8.8% | RH | 22.3% | 9.4% | 8.4% | L7Days | 21.0% | 10.0% | 12.0% |
| Mets | Home | 21.8% | 12.2% | 12.0% | LH | 21.9% | 13.4% | 9.2% | L7Days | 19.6% | 15.6% | 7.8% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.6% | 9.8% | 11.4% | RH | 20.5% | 10.2% | 10.1% | L7Days | 20.7% | 17.2% | 6.9% |
| Giants | Home | 20.5% | 8.0% | 6.7% | RH | 21.4% | 10.3% | 6.9% | L7Days | 19.3% | 10.5% | 10.5% |
| Twins | Home | 21.4% | 12.5% | 11.1% | LH | 19.6% | 12.3% | 9.4% | L7Days | 18.6% | 11.3% | 14.5% |
| Marlins | Road | 21.5% | 11.5% | 8.5% | RH | 20.2% | 9.5% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.0% | 5.1% | 12.8% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.8% | 12.1% | 8.3% | LH | 19.1% | 12.7% | 9.6% | L7Days | 16.8% | 13.6% | 7.6% |
| White Sox | Home | 20.9% | 11.1% | 9.5% | RH | 21.0% | 11.2% | 9.7% | L7Days | 16.0% | 11.5% | 9.6% |
| Angels | Road | 19.1% | 10.4% | 8.6% | RH | 20.5% | 11.8% | 9.1% | L7Days | 17.8% | 13.0% | 7.4% |
| Reds | Road | 19.6% | 10.3% | 8.6% | RH | 20.8% | 10.5% | 9.1% | L7Days | 17.6% | 11.7% | 5.0% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.5% | 11.4% | 7.4% | RH | 21.6% | 10.0% | 8.6% | L7Days | 17.8% | 7.7% | 9.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.06 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 20.6% | 8.4% | 2.45 | 22.6% | 7.7% | 2.94 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 27.8% | 13.2% | 2.11 | 32.4% | 14.3% | 2.27 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 18.9% | 8.7% | 2.17 | 17.5% | 7.4% | 2.36 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 33.5% | 15.8% | 2.12 | 37.0% | 17.1% | 2.16 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 24.6% | 13.4% | 1.84 | 21.5% | 13.2% | 1.63 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 17.6% | 9.4% | 1.87 | 18.7% | 7.8% | 2.40 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 18.0% | 7.5% | 2.40 | 15.5% | 6.2% | 2.50 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 19.0% | 11.5% | 1.65 | 19.1% | 10.0% | 1.91 |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 19.5% | 11.1% | 1.76 | 21.0% | 11.7% | 1.79 |
| James Shields | SDG | 25.0% | 12.7% | 1.97 | 20.5% | 11.3% | 1.81 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 19.1% | 10.6% | 1.80 | 19.1% | 10.9% | 1.75 |
| John Danks | CHW | 16.2% | 8.8% | 1.84 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 1.70 |
| Jonathan Gray | COL | 19.4% | 9.8% | 1.98 | 18.4% | 9.5% | 1.94 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 19.5% | 8.1% | 2.41 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 2.81 |
| Justin Nicolino | FLA | 8.0% | 4.9% | 1.63 | 9.1% | 6.0% | 1.52 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 20.2% | 9.9% | 2.04 | 19.7% | 7.5% | 2.63 |
| Keyvius Sampson | CIN | 18.5% | 9.0% | 2.06 | 16.5% | 9.6% | 1.72 |
| Kyle Lobstein | DET | 11.2% | 7.3% | 1.53 | 17.4% | 6.3% | 2.76 |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | 20.5% | 11.9% | 1.72 | 27.5% | 13.2% | 2.08 |
| Scott Kazmir | HOU | 21.6% | 10.6% | 2.04 | 22.4% | 10.6% | 2.11 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 20.5% | 9.7% | 2.11 | 14.7% | 9.6% | 1.53 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 22.0% | 9.8% | 2.24 | 15.4% | 7.0% | 2.20 |
| Tim Hudson | SFO | 12.8% | 8.8% | 1.45 | 20.7% | 11.8% | 1.75 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 21.6% | 9.3% | 2.32 | 23.0% | 9.2% | 2.50 |
Aaron Nola has increased his K% over the last month, but maxed out his SwStr% at league average in his last start over that span and hasn’t had a double digit SwStr% since his 2nd start. In fact, he’d gone six straight starts with a SwStr at or below 8% before his last start.
Cole Hamels – Much like his rollercoaster strikeout performances over the last month, his SwStr marks have been up and down too (above 15% three times and below 9% twice).
Jordan Zimmermann – It’s difficult to fully trust his above average K% for the last month with exactly the same SwStr% for the season, but his nearly league average season K% is in line with his SwStr%.
Tim Hudson – We’ve noticed a SwStr% that projects at least a somewhat higher K% all season long, but a league average K% over the last month is limited to just 8.1 total innings. I still think he’s better than 12.8% based on a SwStr% that’s almost right at his career average (9.0%).
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.85 ERA – 3.78 SIERA – 3.85 xFIP – 3.85 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 3.56 | 3.84 | 0.28 | 3.88 | 0.32 | 4.02 | 0.46 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 3.87 | 0.97 | 3.88 | 0.98 |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 3.7 | 2.88 | -0.82 | 2.84 | -0.86 | 2.97 | -0.73 | 3.86 | 3.06 | -0.8 | 3.05 | -0.81 | 3.2 | -0.66 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 5.16 | 4.04 | -1.12 | 3.97 | -1.19 | 4.8 | -0.36 | 4.5 | 5.74 | 1.24 | 5.92 | 1.42 | 5.79 | 1.29 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2.15 | 2.24 | 0.09 | 2.11 | -0.04 | 2.08 | -0.07 | 1.15 | 1.98 | 0.83 | 1.93 | 0.78 | 1.5 | 0.35 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 3.76 | 3.47 | -0.29 | 3.38 | -0.38 | 3.36 | -0.4 | 3.34 | 3.94 | 0.6 | 3.62 | 0.28 | 2.4 | -0.94 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 3.49 | 4.36 | 0.87 | 4.27 | 0.78 | 3.71 | 0.22 | 4.6 | 3.93 | -0.67 | 3.9 | -0.7 | 3.28 | -1.32 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 4.05 | 4.23 | 0.18 | 4.09 | 0.04 | 4.08 | 0.03 | 1.73 | 4.08 | 2.35 | 3.77 | 2.04 | 3.3 | 1.57 |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 3.96 | 3.97 | 0.01 | 4.02 | 0.06 | 4.02 | 0.06 | 5.54 | 3.97 | -1.57 | 3.9 | -1.64 | 5.26 | -0.28 |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 3.71 | 3.94 | 0.23 | 3.84 | 0.13 | 3.79 | 0.08 | 4.41 | 3.45 | -0.96 | 3.37 | -1.04 | 3.76 | -0.65 |
| James Shields | SDG | 3.9 | 3.7 | -0.2 | 3.66 | -0.24 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 3.94 | 4.69 | 0.75 | 4.48 | 0.54 | 5.33 | 1.39 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 4.6 | 4.12 | -0.48 | 4.16 | -0.44 | 4.38 | -0.22 | 1.69 | 4.69 | 3 | 5.24 | 3.55 | 4.64 | 2.95 |
| John Danks | CHW | 4.6 | 4.55 | -0.05 | 4.55 | -0.05 | 4.36 | -0.24 | 4.67 | 4 | -0.67 | 3.86 | -0.81 | 4.96 | 0.29 |
| Jonathan Gray | COL | 5.17 | 4.13 | -1.04 | 3.98 | -1.19 | 3.4 | -1.77 | 6.33 | 4.09 | -2.24 | 3.89 | -2.44 | 3.19 | -3.14 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 3.32 | 3.85 | 0.53 | 3.84 | 0.52 | 3.61 | 0.29 | 3.26 | 3.49 | 0.23 | 3.59 | 0.33 | 5.29 | 2.03 |
| Justin Nicolino | FLA | 3.72 | 5.45 | 1.73 | 5.15 | 1.43 | 4.55 | 0.83 | 3.13 | 5.37 | 2.24 | 5.1 | 1.97 | 4.66 | 1.53 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 4.43 | 3.84 | -0.59 | 4.03 | -0.4 | 4.45 | 0.02 | 4.33 | 3.7 | -0.63 | 3.68 | -0.65 | 5.85 | 1.52 |
| Keyvius Sampson | CIN | 6.94 | 4.72 | -2.22 | 4.65 | -2.29 | 4.74 | -2.2 | 10.24 | 4.97 | -5.27 | 4.84 | -5.4 | 5.26 | -4.98 |
| Kyle Lobstein | DET | 5.31 | 4.9 | -0.41 | 4.64 | -0.67 | 4.56 | -0.75 | 9.9 | 4.68 | -5.22 | 4.95 | -4.95 | 6.64 | -3.26 |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | 3.06 | 3.7 | 0.64 | 4.01 | 0.95 | 4.07 | 1.01 | 3.27 | 2.86 | -0.41 | 3.56 | 0.29 | 5.23 | 1.96 |
| Scott Kazmir | HOU | 2.63 | 3.93 | 1.3 | 3.88 | 1.25 | 3.53 | 0.9 | 5.02 | 3.85 | -1.17 | 4.03 | -0.99 | 4.15 | -0.87 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 2.28 | 3.68 | 1.4 | 3.6 | 1.32 | 3.26 | 0.98 | 3.38 | 4.23 | 0.85 | 4.07 | 0.69 | 4.77 | 1.39 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 4.7 | 3.74 | -0.96 | 3.87 | -0.83 | 4.18 | -0.52 | 5.2 | 4.34 | -0.86 | 4.14 | -1.06 | 4.37 | -0.83 |
| Tim Hudson | SFO | 4.51 | 4.13 | -0.38 | 4.01 | -0.5 | 4.46 | -0.05 | 1.08 | 2.07 | 0.99 | 2.41 | 1.33 | 1.7 | 0.62 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 4.18 | 4.2 | 0.02 | 4 | -0.18 | 3.89 | -0.29 | 2.67 | 3.88 | 1.21 | 3.63 | 0.96 | 2.95 | 0.28 |
Aaron Nola – While he’s pitched well over the last month, he has just a .241 BABIP with an 83.9 LOB%. He does have just a 14.1 LD% and 1.2 Hard-Soft% over that span though, so some of that may be justified, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t expect regression in those numbers.
Carlos Carrasco was basically in range of his estimators prior to a BABIP over .350 in each of his last two starts, to bring his season rate up above .300 again. A 12.6 HR/FB is a little higher than expected and a point above his career rate, but not out of control.
Erasmo Ramirez has an ERA and FIP much higher than his xFIP and SIERA over the last month due to an extremely elevated 20.7 HR/FB. His hard contact rate has increased by 5.5 points over his season rate, but it is way out of range with his career norm, which is a little above average. He has also pitched on the road, in unfavorable parks, against tough offenses in three of his last five starts.
Kevin Gausman – The HR rate is elevated significantly over the last month (eight of his 15 HRs allowed for the season in his last five starts), but also an 89.2 LOB%. Almost all of his runs have come on HRs with an above average 15.4 K-BB%.
Logan Verrett – The .207 BABIP is obviously unsustainable and he is not a true talent 3.06 ERA pitcher, but we’ll refrain from further judging limited innings mostly out of the bullpen at this point.
Taijuan Walker – A 13.4 HR/FB is a bit elevated and has surprisingly been much worse at home, so we don’t yet know what to make of that, but there should be at least some positive regression in his 67.4 LOB%.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
Last year, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if you have a pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it may be onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 0.317 | 0.267 | -0.05 | 9.2% | 87.5% |
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.291 | 0.303 | 0.012 | 6.3% | 85.6% |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.300 | 0.326 | 0.026 | 9.4% | 89.9% |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.298 | 0.283 | -0.015 | 10.2% | 78.3% |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 0.293 | 0.303 | 0.01 | 13.8% | 84.4% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 0.285 | 0.287 | 0.002 | 5.2% | 87.2% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.306 | 0.283 | -0.023 | 15.0% | 89.2% |
| Erasmo Ramirez | TAM | 0.285 | 0.268 | -0.017 | 13.5% | 84.1% |
| Garrett Richards | ANA | 0.285 | 0.281 | -0.004 | 10.9% | 88.2% |
| James Shields | SDG | 0.300 | 0.306 | 0.006 | 10.3% | 84.2% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | ARI | 0.295 | 0.293 | -0.002 | 4.0% | 86.3% |
| John Danks | CHW | 0.313 | 0.302 | -0.011 | 9.1% | 86.7% |
| Jonathan Gray | COL | 0.316 | 0.357 | 0.041 | 13.3% | 87.9% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | WAS | 0.306 | 0.302 | -0.004 | 11.7% | 90.0% |
| Justin Nicolino | FLA | 0.294 | 0.287 | -0.007 | 9.1% | 91.5% |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.295 | 0.287 | -0.008 | 13.0% | 85.4% |
| Keyvius Sampson | CIN | 0.290 | 0.359 | 0.069 | 21.4% | 84.4% |
| Kyle Lobstein | DET | 0.303 | 0.316 | 0.013 | 10.7% | 88.8% |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | 0.286 | 0.207 | -0.079 | 5.9% | 87.2% |
| Scott Kazmir | HOU | 0.280 | 0.266 | -0.014 | 5.5% | 86.1% |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 0.285 | 0.243 | -0.042 | 8.9% | 88.2% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 0.295 | 0.292 | -0.003 | 10.2% | 85.9% |
| Tim Hudson | SFO | 0.283 | 0.306 | 0.023 | 7.3% | 89.8% |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 0.300 | 0.319 | 0.019 | 13.8% | 86.8% |
No additional notes.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Tim Hudson – You’re paying not too much more than the minimum price and while the decline is evident and I would no longer call him even a league average pitcher, he can at least fake that in a good spot in a great park.
Value Tier Two
Clayton Kershaw (1) seems to have broken the pricing algorithms and that’s the only thing that keeps him from the top tier. It’s the best pitcher on the planet it perhaps the best possible matchup.
Value Tier Three
Erasmo Ramirez would seem to be undervalued (severely in some places) on sites not named FanDuel. He’s had a bit of a HR problem recently, but most in poor parks against good offenses and returns home to face not a weak offense, but not an unfavorable matchup in a good park. We’re getting a good to great price on a near league average pitcher in a slightly favorable spot.
Carlos Carrasco (2t) – If we choose to believe he exhibited some rust in his first start back with his velocity still intact, he should be better this time out. While Kansas City may hurt his K%, he’s got room to spare and still be above average. They are a below average road offense. Something that might concern me is if he’s on a pitch count that I’m unaware of.
Jordan Zimmermann (2t) has been pitching well and finds himself in a great spot in Philly for a price not too far about average and significantly below the top pitchers tonight, while expecting him to give you just as much (and quite possibly more) than Sonny Gray or Scott Kazmir.
Aaron Nola is the rare pitcher priced much lower on FanDuel (and Fantasy Aces) where is league average profile would likely return the most value. I know he’s going against a better pitcher and FanDuel values the win highly, but when was the last time the Nationals won a game. The status of Bryce Harper could either give him a slight bump or drop, but he’s still probably essentially remain in the same spot for me.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Garrett Richards should give you what you pay for here in a good spot, but it may come more in terms of weak contact than an enormous strikeout rate, though potentially an above average one.
Jonathan Gray is not in a great spot, but should probably garner a bit of a higher price tag on the road.
Kevin Gausman hasn’t been great, but hasn’t been terrible and has a very low price tag, especially on DraftKings.
Taijuan Walker is in a very good spot, but you never know what you’re going to get.
Cole Hamels – He should generate quite a few strikeouts, but is inconsistent and in a high risk spot. This could go great, but also blow up completely. He’s down here not because he lacks potential, but due to potential for such an incredibly wide range of outcomes.
Tyler Duffey has flashed some potential, but doesn’t have good control and isn’t in the greatest spot tonight.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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