Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Tuesday, June 23rd
You know it’s one hell of a crazy night when one of your dumpster diving specials is the top scorer of the night, as Joe Blanton was last night and that was only because nearly everyone else got smashed. Kershaw and Blanton were the only two starting pitchers not only to break 20 points last night on DraftKings, but even 15 points. In fact, there were two relievers in the top six point accumulators overall. That’s the kind of day where if you’re writing a pitching column, you can’t win. At least we had the top two on our list last night, but most of us probably had a lot more Pineda than Blanton. We’ll try to do better today.
One more note before getting to meat of it: I’m taking some personal time Wed through Friday, so this will be the last article this week. We’ll be back on Monday.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com 3 year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Gonzalez | TEX | 0.2 | 5.51 | 7.5 | 1.71 | 1.08 | 5.13 | 5.19 | OAK | 96 | 110 | 138 | 12.6% | 9.1% | 20.6% | 7.8% | 6.3% |
| Alex Wood | ATL | -0.1 | 3.45 | 6.13 | 1.42 | 1.03 | 3.86 | 3.99 | WAS | 96 | 96 | 142 | 20.6% | 8.0% | 18.3% | 11.6% | 9.5% |
| C.J. Wilson | ANA | 1.6 | 4.05 | 6.13 | 1.38 | 0.91 | 3.92 | 2.48 | HOU | 101 | 100 | 132 | 24.8% | 7.7% | 21.8% | 11.4% | 8.6% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 5.5 | 3.48 | 5.53 | 1.96 | 1.01 | 3.3 | 3.54 | FLA | 88 | 81 | 85 | 21.4% | 7.6% | 20.7% | 10.4% | 7.6% |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | -4.4 | 3.74 | 6.08 | 1.41 | 1.02 | 2.8 | 3.05 | PHI | 75 | 90 | 110 | 20.3% | 4.7% | 25.5% | 15.3% | 11.0% |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 2.8 | 3.92 | 5.68 | 1.24 | 1.4 | 3.86 | 4.98 | COL | 92 | 96 | 103 | 17.8% | 6.3% | 23.7% | 8.6% | 6.0% |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 10.2 | 3.44 | 6.03 | 1.53 | 0.94 | 3.25 | 3.47 | TOR | 104 | 111 | 139 | 20.5% | 8.0% | 18.7% | 9.0% | 13.5% |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | -4.1 | 3.5 | 6.03 | 1.22 | 0.91 | 3.39 | 5.33 | ANA | 105 | 96 | 114 | 19.7% | 8.7% | 20.0% | 12.9% | 7.6% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | -5.5 | 3 | 5.6 | 0.94 | 0.94 | 3.26 | 3.59 | DET | 106 | 105 | 99 | 22.2% | 6.9% | 20.6% | 11.1% | 8.3% |
| David Price | DET | 6.4 | 3.04 | 7.23 | 1.09 | 0.94 | 3.07 | 2.47 | CLE | 108 | 104 | 62 | 22.2% | 6.9% | 23.4% | 8.3% | 6.5% |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 3.8 | 3.52 | 6.06 | 1.02 | 1.05 | 3.63 | 4.25 | LOS | 106 | 123 | 116 | 19.8% | 8.6% | 22.6% | 13.3% | 5.5% |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | -4 | 4.22 | 5.76 | 1.84 | 0.91 | 3.77 | 3.31 | CIN | 84 | 104 | 124 | 18.6% | 7.6% | 20.9% | 10.1% | 8.6% |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | -8.7 | 3.44 | 6.59 | 1.45 | 1.05 | 3.38 | 2.79 | MIN | 106 | 85 | 108 | 20.6% | 5.4% | 20.4% | 8.8% | 9.5% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KAN | 13.9 | 4.53 | 6.14 | 1.17 | 0.85 | 4.26 | 3.56 | SEA | 91 | 84 | 51 | 19.3% | 6.7% | 21.6% | 10.3% | 8.1% |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | -10.9 | 3.56 | 6.16 | 1.21 | 1.08 | 3.56 | 3 | TEX | 102 | 97 | 43 | 23.8% | 7.2% | 19.3% | 10.8% | 10.2% |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | -4.1 | 4.33 | 5.64 | 1.95 | 1.07 | 3.92 | 5.23 | BAL | 90 | 104 | 145 | 19.1% | 8.6% | 21.0% | 10.7% | 5.3% |
| Jon Niese | NYM | -1.4 | 3.76 | 6.23 | 1.78 | 1.07 | 3.74 | 3.67 | MIL | 82 | 75 | 95 | 18.8% | 6.8% | 19.1% | 14.8% | 11.9% |
| Jose Urena | FLA | 4.9 | 4.75 | 5.82 | 2.07 | 1.01 | 4.36 | 5.65 | STL | 96 | 109 | 130 | 14.0% | 7.5% | 20.9% | 10.8% | 9.5% |
| Josh Smith | CIN | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0.91 | PIT | 102 | 90 | 63 | ||||||||
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | 1.7 | 4.6 | 6.02 | 1.31 | 1.4 | 4.36 | 5.79 | ARI | 96 | 92 | 62 | 17.1% | 7.3% | 22.0% | 11.6% | 9.7% |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 0.1 | 3.13 | 6.59 | 1.29 | 0.87 | 3.05 | 2.92 | SDG | 88 | 96 | 90 | 24.6% | 6.7% | 20.9% | 8.2% | 9.0% |
| Michael Montgomery | SEA | -4.9 | 5.11 | 6.53 | 1.09 | 0.85 | 5.05 | 5.49 | KAN | 102 | 101 | 141 | 12.1% | 6.8% | 20.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% |
| Mike Fiers | MIL | -1.8 | 3.3 | 5.76 | 0.81 | 1.07 | 3.43 | 4.77 | NYM | 74 | 87 | 50 | 22.3% | 7.3% | 21.0% | 9.3% | 10.7% |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 1.7 | 4.78 | 5.58 | 1.48 | 1.05 | 4.86 | 5.64 | CHW | 77 | 82 | 60 | 14.7% | 7.8% | 21.7% | 8.9% | 8.7% |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | SDG | -12.5 | 4.22 | 6. | 1.75 | 0.87 | 4.26 | 3.83 | SFO | 97 | 109 | 105 | 15.1% | 6.9% | 20.4% | 9.7% | 7.4% |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 4.1 | 4.12 | 6.5 | 1.07 | 0.94 | 4.47 | 4.28 | TAM | 110 | 97 | 123 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 21.9% | 11.5% | 9.6% |
| Sean O’Sullivan | PHI | -2.8 | 5.07 | 5.67 | 1.22 | 1.02 | 5.45 | 5.03 | NYY | 126 | 109 | 167 | 14.1% | 8.9% | 18.8% | 15.3% | 6.8% |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | -2.5 | 3.9 | 6.34 | 1.26 | 1.03 | 3.87 | 3.93 | ATL | 89 | 96 | 80 | 16.9% | 6.3% | 21.5% | 6.6% | 9.1% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 6.9 | 3.89 | 5.72 | 1.23 | 1.07 | 4.16 | 2.9 | BOS | 108 | 103 | 171 | 19.8% | 8.3% | 23.6% | 11.4% | 10.2% |
| Zack Greinke | LOS | 5 | 3.07 | 6.54 | 1.63 | 1.05 | 2.99 | 2.16 | CHC | 87 | 92 | 102 | 24.5% | 6.3% | 19.3% | 11.2% | 9.1% |
Alex Wood bounced back from one of his worst starts of the season against the Mets (6.1 IP – 4 ER – 2 HR – 4 BB – 6 K) with one of his best against Boston (6 IP – 1 ER – 1 HR – 2 BB – 7 K). He’s allowed three of his five HRs this season in his last two starts, exactly doubling his 3.2 HR/FB to 6.4% now. He has just a 10.9 K-BB% on the road since the start of last season and the Nationals, though a neutral matchup at home and vs RHP, have been one of the hottest offenses in baseball over the last week.
C.J. Wilson has at least seven strikeouts in each of his last five starts and has allowed just one ER over his last 15 innings, striking out 17 of 55 batters. We’ll talk more about his recent strikeout surge later. Houston is a hot team that was stifled last night and helps him generate one of the top expected K rates of the evening. They strike out 24.6% on the road, 23.6% vs LHP, and 28.6% over the last week. They do have a 14.5 HR/FB vs LHP and 25.0 HR/FB over the last week, but Wilson has just a 6.6 HR/FB at home, a pitcher’s park both for run value and power, since the start of last season. The biggest concern is that Wilson does allow fly balls on 35.1% of those batted and has a 31.4 Hard% this year.
Carlos Martinez has allowed two ERs or less in 11 of 13 starts this season now and in seven consecutive. He’s not a product of his home park either, with a solid 3.30 xFIP on the road since last season. The Marlins represent a matchup solidly in his favor. They are one of the worst offenses in the league both at home and vs RHP. Though they don’t strike out much, where he may have the real advantage here is limiting hard contact. Martinez has a 6.6 Hard-Soft% this season, including a -2.6% mark over the last two weeks, while the Marlins have just an 8.0 Hard-Soft% on the season and vs RHP.
C.C. Sabathia hasn’t really seen an increase in velocity, but hasn’t lost any more from last season either. What he has done, is pitch better and consistently hit his spots. He has a very respectable 16.5 K-BB% for the season now and a 21.8 K-BB% at home since last season. HRs are a major issue as he’s allowed 15 on the season and has a 23.1 HR/FB at home since 2014. Luckily his faces the Phillies tonight, who have just a 5.0 HR/FB on the road and -2.4 Hard-Soft% vs LHP. They are the 3rd worst road offense in baseball, despite the breakout last night. As you can see in the main chart, Sabathia has potentially the worst expected HR/FB tonight, but also potentially the lowest walk rate, but more than any other pitcher tonight, you really want to keep an eye on the umpire assignment, though the is solid enough that he might be of use either way.
Chris Archer has run into a little bit of a jam over his last two starts, allowing three ERs in each over a total of 12 innings, striking out just eight of 50 batters faced. The most positive take away from his last two outings though is a -18.0 Hard-Soft% which feeds now a 5.7 Hard-Soft% for the season. He’s still having a breakout season overall and pitches in a great park with a great defense behind him, but is not in a great spot tonight against one of the better road offenses and the 2nd best vs RHP. They hit very well over the last week with just a 7.5 K-BB%.
Collin McHugh has a 3.39 road xFIP since the start of last season, but its now fair to say he’s lost most of the gains he made last season and may have been a one hit wonder, though he has faced a run of tough offenses in tough parks over the last month or so and generates some underlying numbers that suggest a better ERA. He’d be a prime candidate to examine on a shorter day, but has a decent park adjusted matchup, though the Angels have just a 6.0 K-BB% over the last week.
Danny Salazar only allowed two ERs in his last start, but struck out just four of 21 batters and didn’t even make it through five full innings. He does have a 19.6 K-BB% and 3.26 xFIP at home since the start of last season and has struck out 17 of 58 Tigers he’s faced this season. The Tigers are a good offense that adjusts down to neutral in a park favorable for the pitcher.
David Price shut out Cleveland almost two weeks ago and has been dominant over the last month. He has some of the best overall ERA estimators of the day in the chart above and a 20.9 K-BB% on the road since last season. Cleveland has been an above average offense at home and vs LHP due to some great plate discipline stats, but have just a 7.4 HR/FB vs LHP and David Price doesn’t walk batters. They’ve been cold over the last week and the park adjusts them down to a slightly favorable matchup.
Jeff Samardzija has finally begun pitching like the guy the White Sox thought they had acquired over his last two starts (14 IP – 5 ER – 0 HR – 1 BB – 14 K) and faces a team that really struggles vs RHP. The Twins have just an 8.0 HR/FB and 7.1 Hard-Soft% vs RHP. Samardzija has a 17.0 K-BB% and 3.38 road xFIP since last season.
Jeremy Guthrie is not a good pitcher and I rarely spend precious time writing about him anymore, but he’s in a great spot tonight. The Mariners were just dominated by Joe Blanton last night and are now the 5th worst offense vs RHP. They’ve been ice cold over the last week and the park adjusts them to potentially the top matchup tonight. Actually, there’s no probably about it. They are the best park adjusted matchup tonight and that’s not even taking into consideration that Nelson Cruz got hurt last night. Seattle strikes out over 23% of the time both at home and vs RHP and may pull Guthrie’s K% up to a useful rate tonight.
Jesse Chavez is someone I like to call a league average pitcher in a great park at a good price in a decent spot where appropriate and that generally makes him a useful daily fantasy pitcher. His last start was such an occasion, but he was much better than that, striking out 11 of 25 Padres. He’s now allowed fewer than three ERs in six of 11 starts and never more than four with a better than league average 16.3 K-BB%. Maybe I have to call him a good pitcher tonight, which kind of helps because the park and matchup aren’t as strong. The Rangers are banged up and the coldest offense in the league though, with a -7.0 Hard-Soft% and 31.4 K% over the last week. They are banged up (AGAIN!) and are not hitting at all right now.
Jon Niese has had shoulder issues over the last few years. He adjusted his delivery this pre-season in order to stay healthy, but it just wasn’t working from a results standpoint, so he shifted back a couple of weeks ago. The results have been a few more strikeouts and a few less runs, but nothing to go too nuts about. The biggest benefit has been a -7.5 Hard-Soft% over the last two weeks. He’s coming off a strong start though, considering he was a LHP facing the Blue Jays in Toronto last time out and allowed only three ERs over 7 IP. Tonight, he faces a team that should be good against LHP in a great park, but have, in fact, been pretty terrible vs LHP. Even adjusted upward for park, this seems like a favorable matchup for Niese because the Brewers have been nearly just as bad at home too.
Madison Bumgarner has gone at least eight innings with seven strikeouts or more in each of his last three starts and is generally just really good as you probably know, so I’ll stop trying to dig up stats to prove so. The Padres have not been good, as you probably also know, and provide further benefit towards the pitcher with an added negative park adjustment for the offense. The Padres have a 23.5 K% vs LHP and 26.5 K% over the last week. One surprising find though, is that they now have the top Hard-Soft rate (16.5%) vs LHP this year despite just a 7.8 HR/FB and normal LD rate. Bumgarner projects potentially one of the top K rates of the day.
Mike Fiers generates hard contact (42.5 Hard% leads the majors by nearly seven points) and pitches in a tough park where he’s allowed a 13.7 HR/FB since last season. He also more than the league average and generates fewer swinging strikes than average. That’s not a great profile, but he does generate strikeouts due to some great framing and other quirks. He also has a very good matchup, even with the park adjustment, against a terrible road team (23.1 K%) who aren’t hitting at all right now.
Tanner Roark may not even start. As of noon on Tuesday, mlb.com still hasn’t listed a starter and there is speculation it may be Strasburg. I elected to show Roark today because you know you’re not trusting Strasburg off the injury layoff, but maybe you want to see Roark’s numbers just in case and they aren’t that bad plus he’s facing a much weaker Atlanta lineup without Freeman.
Zack Greinke used to have a reputation as a bad road pitcher or at least not a stable one, but has a 2.99 xFIP away from Dodger Stadium since the start of last season. He’s allowed two or fewer ERs with seven or more strikeouts in four of his last five starts and has managed contact well on the season (4.8 Hard-Soft%). The Cubs strike out a quarter of the time both at home and vs RHP, putting Greinke right near the top of the board today in expected K rate.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Alex Chi Chi Gonzalez (.183 BABIP – 94.6 LOB% – 3.6 HR/FB)
Michael Montgomery (.247 BABIP – 76.9 LOB% – 2.9 HR/FB)
Mike Pelfrey (.287 BABIP – 79.2 LOB% – 7.6 HR/FB) – None of those numbers are extreme, but each border on an acceptable range with the BABIP and LOB far better than his career rates. He has just a 4.3 K-BB%.
NO THANK YOU
Chase Anderson – Colorado takes a neutral matchup here and blows it up into the worst park adjusted spot tonight.
Jason Hammel has been very good this year, but faces the 2nd best road offense and best vs RHP in what can be an offensive friendly park.
Josh Smith is a nearly 28 year old rookie making his major league debut. He stalled reaching AAA for the first time in 159 innings last year and was even demoted to AA for a month this season.
Sean O’Sullivan
Ubaldo Jimenez – While he’s exceeded expectations this season, the Boston offense has come alive and is the hottest in the land over the last week.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Gonzalez | Rangers | 8.6% | 10.3% | Home | 7.1% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 9.5% | 7.9% |
| Alex Wood | Braves | 22.3% | 6.8% | Road | 18.1% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 24.1% | 11.1% |
| C.J. Wilson | Angels | 20.4% | 9.6% | Home | 20.4% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 30.9% | 5.5% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 22.8% | 9.5% | Road | 23.3% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 7.4% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 19.9% | 6.6% | Home | 24.5% | 2.7% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 0.0% |
| Chase Anderson | Diamondbacks | 19.3% | 7.1% | Road | 19.0% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 8.2% | 4.1% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 22.8% | 7.3% | Home | 24.5% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 6.0% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | 21.8% | 5.9% | Road | 21.9% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 14.6% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | 27.9% | 7.0% | Home | 26.4% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 4.2% |
| David Price | Tigers | 24.2% | 3.8% | Road | 25.7% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 28.0% | 2.0% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | 22.0% | 5.9% | Home | 21.0% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 11.6% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | 17.2% | 9.2% | Home | 16.0% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 6.3% |
| Jeff Samardzija | White Sox | 21.4% | 5.8% | Road | 21.8% | 4.8% | L14 Days | 24.6% | 1.8% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | Royals | 13.3% | 5.7% | Road | 15.3% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 2.0% |
| Jesse Chavez | Athletics | 22.2% | 7.5% | Road | 23.2% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 26.4% | 5.7% |
| Joe Kelly | Red Sox | 15.8% | 9.4% | Home | 18.5% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 10.4% |
| Jon Niese | Mets | 17.7% | 6.0% | Road | 16.7% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 17.9% | 10.7% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 9.8% | 7.5% | Home | 10.4% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 4.0% | 8.0% |
| Josh Smith | Reds | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | ||||
| Kyle Kendrick | Rockies | 13.0% | 6.5% | Home | 15.2% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 9.4% | 9.4% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 24.5% | 5.6% | Home | 25.5% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 26.2% | 6.6% |
| Michael Montgomery | Mariners | 11.3% | 7.6% | Home | 10.0% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 8.9% | 8.9% |
| Mike Fiers | Brewers | 26.0% | 7.4% | Home | 26.2% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 11.3% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Twins | 13.6% | 9.0% | Home | 13.6% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 6.0% | 8.0% |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | Padres | 14.4% | 6.6% | Road | 12.9% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 3.8% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | 18.6% | 7.7% | Road | 16.0% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 10.7% |
| Sean O’Sullivan | Phillies | 11.0% | 7.9% | Road | 7.6% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 12.0% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 16.8% | 5.0% | Home | 16.3% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 13.8% | 3.5% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 23.5% | 10.7% | Road | 22.5% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 3.9% |
| Zack Greinke | Dodgers | 23.9% | 5.4% | Road | 22.5% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 26.8% | 1.8% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | Road | 19.4% | 8.4% | RH | 17.2% | 7.7% | L7Days | 13.6% | 7.9% |
| Nationals | Home | 21.3% | 7.6% | LH | 21.3% | 9.0% | L7Days | 16.5% | 6.1% |
| Astros | Road | 24.6% | 7.3% | LH | 23.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 28.6% | 6.4% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.2% | 6.7% | RH | 20.6% | 6.0% | L7Days | 24.1% | 6.7% |
| Phillies | Road | 19.6% | 5.5% | LH | 19.7% | 6.9% | L7Days | 16.7% | 6.5% |
| Rockies | Home | 17.8% | 6.5% | RH | 20.0% | 5.7% | L7Days | 22.4% | 7.2% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.5% | 7.4% | RH | 19.7% | 8.4% | L7Days | 18.3% | 10.8% |
| Angels | Home | 19.9% | 7.6% | RH | 19.4% | 7.1% | L7Days | 16.6% | 10.6% |
| Tigers | Road | 20.8% | 8.4% | RH | 18.9% | 7.3% | L7Days | 18.3% | 7.7% |
| Indians | Home | 18.5% | 10.6% | LH | 16.4% | 10.2% | L7Days | 20.2% | 10.1% |
| Dodgers | Road | 19.5% | 10.4% | RH | 19.2% | 9.8% | L7Days | 14.0% | 8.6% |
| Reds | Road | 19.7% | 7.8% | LH | 20.4% | 9.1% | L7Days | 17.4% | 6.7% |
| Twins | Home | 18.1% | 6.3% | RH | 20.5% | 6.3% | L7Days | 16.9% | 7.2% |
| Mariners | Home | 23.8% | 7.9% | RH | 23.1% | 8.2% | L7Days | 24.2% | 10.6% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.4% | 8.7% | RH | 20.2% | 8.0% | L7Days | 31.4% | 6.7% |
| Orioles | Road | 24.1% | 7.0% | RH | 22.5% | 7.5% | L7Days | 21.1% | 8.9% |
| Brewers | Home | 22.5% | 6.7% | LH | 22.1% | 6.5% | L7Days | 16.1% | 4.1% |
| Cardinals | Road | 21.9% | 7.4% | RH | 18.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 19.1% | 8.3% |
| Pirates | Home | 18.7% | 6.9% | RH | 20.3% | 6.4% | L7Days | 23.8% | 3.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 19.5% | 7.3% | RH | 19.9% | 7.6% | L7Days | 25.4% | 5.9% |
| Padres | Road | 21.6% | 7.6% | LH | 23.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 26.5% | 5.9% |
| Royals | Road | 16.7% | 5.2% | LH | 14.3% | 5.9% | L7Days | 11.2% | 6.7% |
| Mets | Road | 23.1% | 6.0% | RH | 20.4% | 7.0% | L7Days | 19.3% | 5.0% |
| White Sox | Road | 19.0% | 5.7% | RH | 19.2% | 6.5% | L7Days | 16.9% | 7.1% |
| Giants | Home | 16.8% | 7.6% | RH | 17.0% | 7.5% | L7Days | 16.1% | 9.4% |
| Rays | Home | 22.4% | 7.7% | RH | 21.1% | 7.3% | L7Days | 21.6% | 6.3% |
| Yankees | Home | 18.4% | 8.5% | RH | 18.8% | 7.8% | L7Days | 12.7% | 9.5% |
| Braves | Road | 18.4% | 7.2% | RH | 16.8% | 8.0% | L7Days | 19.4% | 8.8% |
| Red Sox | Home | 16.9% | 8.1% | RH | 15.9% | 8.0% | L7Days | 12.9% | 6.7% |
| Cubs | Home | 25.0% | 9.3% | RH | 25.1% | 8.5% | L7Days | 23.4% | 7.4% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Gonzalez | Rangers | 18.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | Home | 17.8% | 9.1% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 21.6% | 6.3% | 0.0% |
| Alex Wood | Braves | 20.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | Road | 18.9% | 6.6% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 20.0% | 13.3% |
| C.J. Wilson | Angels | 22.4% | 8.8% | 8.0% | Home | 21.9% | 7.1% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 0.0% | 10.0% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 20.4% | 9.2% | 9.9% | Road | 21.5% | 8.2% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| CC Sabathia | Yankees | 22.8% | 16.3% | 9.6% | Home | 26.7% | 23.1% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 27.3% | 18.2% |
| Chase Anderson | Diamondbacks | 24.1% | 9.8% | 9.3% | Road | 26.7% | 7.5% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Chris Archer | Rays | 21.0% | 8.4% | 11.0% | Home | 22.9% | 7.8% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 13.5% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Collin McHugh | Astros | 22.8% | 11.6% | 9.3% | Road | 21.2% | 10.8% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 18.8% | 0.0% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | 22.5% | 12.5% | 12.1% | Home | 20.5% | 10.8% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 13.9% | 12.5% | 6.3% |
| David Price | Tigers | 22.0% | 8.0% | 10.6% | Road | 21.9% | 9.4% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
| Jason Hammel | Cubs | 22.6% | 11.7% | 6.9% | Home | 22.2% | 10.7% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 7.7% | 0.0% |
| Jeff Locke | Pirates | 20.6% | 12.0% | 9.5% | Home | 20.2% | 10.1% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Jeff Samardzija | White Sox | 20.7% | 11.6% | 8.9% | Road | 22.0% | 10.5% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 0.0% | 7.1% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | Royals | 22.5% | 9.5% | 8.2% | Road | 21.1% | 12.7% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Jesse Chavez | Athletics | 22.0% | 8.4% | 10.3% | Road | 20.4% | 11.7% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 8.3% | 16.7% |
| Joe Kelly | Red Sox | 20.7% | 9.4% | 7.6% | Home | 25.0% | 9.7% | 3.2% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jon Niese | Mets | 22.4% | 11.2% | 6.6% | Road | 20.9% | 12.0% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 33.3% | 33.3% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | 19.6% | 10.7% | 14.3% | Home | 17.9% | 10.0% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 9.1% | 0.0% |
| Josh Smith | Reds | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | L14 Days | ||||||
| Kyle Kendrick | Rockies | 21.6% | 12.1% | 11.1% | Home | 22.7% | 14.7% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 17.6% | 11.8% |
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 19.6% | 9.4% | 13.2% | Home | 23.6% | 9.6% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 0.0% | 11.1% |
| Michael Montgomery | Mariners | 17.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | Home | 16.4% | 3.4% | 3.4% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Mike Fiers | Brewers | 21.5% | 9.4% | 14.0% | Home | 22.6% | 13.7% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 16.2% | 11.1% | 5.6% |
| Mike Pelfrey | Twins | 21.3% | 8.4% | 10.5% | Home | 24.4% | 7.7% | 3.8% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 15.4% | 0.0% |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | Padres | 20.8% | 10.1% | 7.4% | Road | 21.2% | 12.9% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | 20.6% | 12.3% | 12.9% | Road | 20.9% | 8.9% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 12.5% | 6.3% |
| Sean O’Sullivan | Phillies | 18.8% | 10.9% | 7.6% | Road | 17.4% | 25.0% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 14.7% | 7.7% | 7.7% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | 20.9% | 8.1% | 11.5% | Home | 19.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 22.4% | 9.2% | 10.8% | Road | 22.9% | 12.0% | 15.2% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 15.4% | 7.7% |
| Zack Greinke | Dodgers | 21.5% | 10.1% | 11.3% | Road | 21.1% | 7.8% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 10.0% | 0.0% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | Road | 20.5% | 10.6% | 8.9% | RH | 21.3% | 9.4% | 9.6% | L7Days | 24.3% | 7.8% | 15.6% |
| Nationals | Home | 19.2% | 12.0% | 8.5% | LH | 18.7% | 11.3% | 5.3% | L7Days | 20.2% | 11.7% | 13.3% |
| Astros | Road | 23.0% | 12.7% | 11.0% | LH | 19.8% | 14.5% | 9.4% | L7Days | 18.0% | 25.0% | 3.1% |
| Marlins | Home | 19.5% | 9.3% | 9.3% | RH | 21.0% | 9.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 21.3% | 13.6% | 9.1% |
| Phillies | Road | 23.7% | 5.0% | 10.3% | LH | 22.9% | 8.0% | 8.8% | L7Days | 26.3% | 11.9% | 6.0% |
| Rockies | Home | 22.4% | 11.6% | 8.2% | RH | 20.9% | 14.2% | 7.9% | L7Days | 18.8% | 8.6% | 1.7% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 19.8% | 11.3% | 14.3% | RH | 18.9% | 13.4% | 13.8% | L7Days | 16.2% | 12.9% | 17.1% |
| Angels | Home | 21.8% | 12.1% | 9.9% | RH | 20.2% | 11.5% | 8.1% | L7Days | 17.5% | 12.5% | 6.3% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.3% | 10.5% | 5.6% | RH | 22.2% | 8.9% | 7.7% | L7Days | 22.2% | 11.4% | 7.1% |
| Indians | Home | 22.4% | 8.7% | 10.4% | LH | 22.1% | 7.4% | 6.1% | L7Days | 22.5% | 6.0% | 4.0% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.1% | 16.0% | 7.8% | RH | 22.1% | 16.2% | 8.2% | L7Days | 28.8% | 17.5% | 3.2% |
| Reds | Road | 20.4% | 9.5% | 9.2% | LH | 23.5% | 13.6% | 7.4% | L7Days | 22.7% | 15.4% | 5.8% |
| Twins | Home | 21.3% | 10.8% | 10.5% | RH | 20.6% | 8.0% | 12.4% | L7Days | 20.3% | 11.7% | 10.0% |
| Mariners | Home | 20.6% | 10.7% | 7.3% | RH | 19.6% | 9.9% | 6.5% | L7Days | 15.9% | 8.8% | 7.0% |
| Rangers | Home | 18.5% | 11.5% | 8.2% | RH | 17.6% | 11.1% | 7.7% | L7Days | 15.2% | 13.9% | 5.6% |
| Orioles | Road | 19.2% | 10.9% | 7.5% | RH | 21.2% | 14.0% | 7.3% | L7Days | 21.1% | 20.3% | 6.3% |
| Brewers | Home | 20.1% | 10.9% | 8.3% | LH | 14.2% | 12.9% | 5.3% | L7Days | 21.8% | 8.3% | 10.4% |
| Cardinals | Road | 20.8% | 11.2% | 11.2% | RH | 22.7% | 9.5% | 9.0% | L7Days | 21.0% | 14.5% | 12.7% |
| Pirates | Home | 21.9% | 11.7% | 5.2% | RH | 21.4% | 9.4% | 7.1% | L7Days | 16.8% | 8.3% | 8.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 19.5% | 10.2% | 9.8% | RH | 21.2% | 10.5% | 8.7% | L7Days | 21.8% | 4.5% | 4.5% |
| Padres | Road | 19.6% | 8.5% | 7.0% | LH | 20.7% | 7.8% | 4.7% | L7Days | 18.1% | 14.0% | 5.3% |
| Royals | Road | 24.0% | 9.3% | 10.0% | LH | 23.5% | 7.4% | 9.9% | L7Days | 20.0% | 6.2% | 11.1% |
| Mets | Road | 23.7% | 9.0% | 10.9% | RH | 23.0% | 8.2% | 12.1% | L7Days | 19.0% | 4.5% | 9.1% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.5% | 7.2% | 12.2% | RH | 21.7% | 9.2% | 11.4% | L7Days | 21.6% | 5.3% | 14.0% |
| Giants | Home | 19.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | RH | 21.7% | 10.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 19.5% | 7.7% | 3.8% |
| Rays | Home | 22.1% | 10.1% | 10.1% | RH | 22.0% | 9.6% | 10.0% | L7Days | 24.7% | 15.3% | 5.1% |
| Yankees | Home | 20.0% | 16.5% | 9.1% | RH | 21.5% | 13.8% | 8.1% | L7Days | 20.6% | 17.9% | 8.3% |
| Braves | Road | 23.0% | 7.3% | 8.7% | RH | 22.5% | 7.6% | 9.3% | L7Days | 16.0% | 0.0% | 8.0% |
| Red Sox | Home | 21.1% | 11.5% | 9.8% | RH | 20.5% | 10.1% | 11.7% | L7Days | 22.0% | 10.3% | 5.9% |
| Cubs | Home | 22.4% | 10.5% | 12.0% | RH | 20.4% | 12.4% | 10.6% | L7Days | 20.0% | 16.2% | 9.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.6 SwStr% – 2.10 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Gonzalez | TEX | 8.6% | 5.8% | 1.48 | 8.6% | 5.8% | 1.48 |
| Alex Wood | ATL | 17.7% | 7.1% | 2.49 | 20.6% | 9.3% | 2.22 |
| C.J. Wilson | ANA | 21.5% | 8.5% | 2.53 | 28.1% | 8.8% | 3.19 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 25.5% | 10.0% | 2.55 | 27.8% | 10.2% | 2.73 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 20.7% | 9.0% | 2.30 | 22.3% | 10.0% | 2.23 |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 15.9% | 7.6% | 2.09 | 13.5% | 8.0% | 1.69 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 31.1% | 13.0% | 2.39 | 34.9% | 15.0% | 2.33 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 19.1% | 10.6% | 1.80 | 17.8% | 9.6% | 1.85 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 30.0% | 13.0% | 2.31 | 24.8% | 10.5% | 2.36 |
| David Price | DET | 22.3% | 11.3% | 1.97 | 23.5% | 12.7% | 1.85 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 25.7% | 11.1% | 2.32 | 29.1% | 13.3% | 2.19 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 18.3% | 8.9% | 2.06 | 18.4% | 10.0% | 1.84 |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | 19.0% | 9.7% | 1.96 | 19.2% | 10.0% | 1.92 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KAN | 10.6% | 6.5% | 1.63 | 13.9% | 7.7% | 1.81 |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | 22.4% | 9.7% | 2.31 | 21.6% | 9.7% | 2.23 |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 18.5% | 7.1% | 2.61 | 13.5% | 5.9% | 2.29 |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 15.9% | 5.7% | 2.79 | 21.6% | 6.4% | 3.38 |
| Jose Urena | FLA | 9.8% | 7.4% | 1.32 | 10.8% | 7.4% | 1.46 |
| Josh Smith | CIN | ||||||
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | 11.1% | 6.0% | 1.85 | 8.2% | 5.7% | 1.44 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 23.3% | 11.5% | 2.03 | 25.9% | 12.5% | 2.07 |
| Michael Montgomery | SEA | 11.3% | 6.9% | 1.64 | 11.3% | 6.9% | 1.64 |
| Mike Fiers | MIL | 24.6% | 9.2% | 2.67 | 20.6% | 8.0% | 2.58 |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 11.4% | 5.3% | 2.15 | 11.4% | 5.1% | 2.24 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | SDG | 12.1% | 5.3% | 2.28 | 14.1% | 5.5% | 2.56 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 15.2% | 9.0% | 1.69 | 21.1% | 11.3% | 1.87 |
| Sean O’Sullivan | PHI | 10.8% | 6.3% | 1.71 | 8.3% | 7.1% | 1.17 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 12.0% | 6.3% | 1.90 | 14.6% | 6.2% | 2.35 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 23.6% | 8.6% | 2.74 | 24.1% | 10.6% | 2.27 |
| Zack Greinke | LOS | 22.7% | 11.4% | 1.99 | 25.8% | 13.1% | 1.97 |
C.J. Wilson – Unfortunately, his strikeout surge has not been accompanied by a rise in his SwStr% over the last month. It’s essentially within a percentage point of where it’s been for the season and his career.
Colin McHugh doesn’t really have a K% that’s that far out of range with his SwStr%, but does have rates that might suggest some optimism. His K% has decreased 6.3 points from last season, but the SwStr% has only dropped 0.4 points. If the truth lies somewhere in between it might help him pull his ERA estimators below four.
Jeremy Guthrie – We’re not looking at anything special here, but his SwStr% is almost exactly in line with his career mark, so I’d expect his K% to trend closer to his 13.8% career mark. It’s not good, but it is better. He’s actually been a bit better than that over the last month.
Mike Fiers will conform just like everybody else. I win!!! No, but seriously, he’s in within an accepted range, although the top end of that range, now and has some great pitch framers catching him. A pitcher with a slightly below average SwStr rate can have an above average K rate, there are just generally limits to how high.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.88 ERA – 3.80 SIERA – 3.88 xFIP – 3.88 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Gonzalez | TEX | 0.9 | 5.51 | 4.61 | 5.04 | 4.14 | 4.17 | 3.27 | 0.9 | 5.51 | 4.61 | 5.04 | 4.14 | 4.17 | 3.27 |
| Alex Wood | ATL | 3.4 | 4.12 | 0.72 | 3.95 | 0.55 | 3.39 | -0.01 | 2.78 | 3.85 | 1.07 | 3.9 | 1.12 | 3.51 | 0.73 |
| C.J. Wilson | ANA | 3.39 | 3.74 | 0.35 | 3.78 | 0.39 | 3.51 | 0.12 | 3.83 | 3.18 | -0.65 | 3.25 | -0.58 | 4.08 | 0.25 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 2.8 | 3.45 | 0.65 | 3.24 | 0.44 | 3.66 | 0.86 | 1.06 | 2.95 | 1.89 | 2.82 | 1.76 | 2.55 | 1.49 |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 5.31 | 3.46 | -1.85 | 3.42 | -1.89 | 4.29 | -1.02 | 6.39 | 3.26 | -3.13 | 3.13 | -3.26 | 4.62 | -1.77 |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 2.84 | 4.11 | 1.27 | 4.03 | 1.19 | 3.18 | 0.34 | 3.34 | 4.1 | 0.76 | 3.98 | 0.64 | 3.1 | -0.24 |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 2.18 | 2.46 | 0.28 | 2.35 | 0.17 | 2.14 | -0.04 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0 | 1.65 | -0.15 | 1.1 | -0.7 |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 5.04 | 3.86 | -1.18 | 4 | -1.04 | 4.42 | -0.62 | 7.07 | 4.36 | -2.71 | 4.8 | -2.27 | 6.1 | -0.97 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 3.56 | 2.72 | -0.84 | 2.84 | -0.72 | 3.51 | -0.05 | 3.64 | 3.44 | -0.2 | 3.44 | -0.2 | 3.88 | 0.24 |
| David Price | DET | 2.5 | 3.53 | 1.03 | 3.54 | 1.04 | 2.94 | 0.44 | 1.19 | 3.42 | 2.23 | 3.42 | 2.23 | 2.36 | 1.17 |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 2.89 | 3.01 | 0.12 | 3.13 | 0.24 | 3.09 | 0.2 | 3.23 | 2.96 | -0.27 | 3.26 | 0.03 | 3.27 | 0.04 |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 4.74 | 4.08 | -0.66 | 3.96 | -0.78 | 4 | -0.74 | 3.86 | 4.21 | 0.35 | 4.11 | 0.25 | 3.89 | 0.03 |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | 4.67 | 3.74 | -0.93 | 3.75 | -0.92 | 3.66 | -1.01 | 5.4 | 3.54 | -1.86 | 3.65 | -1.75 | 3.61 | -1.79 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KAN | 5.55 | 5.15 | -0.4 | 5.05 | -0.5 | 5.19 | -0.36 | 7.13 | 4.75 | -2.38 | 4.89 | -2.24 | 6.1 | -1.03 |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | 2.52 | 3.51 | 0.99 | 3.49 | 0.97 | 2.75 | 0.23 | 2.06 | 3.31 | 1.25 | 3.12 | 1.06 | 2.7 | 0.64 |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 5.32 | 4.2 | -1.12 | 4.08 | -1.24 | 4.02 | -1.3 | 5.7 | 4.69 | -1.01 | 4.64 | -1.06 | 3.65 | -2.05 |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 4.21 | 3.9 | -0.31 | 3.76 | -0.45 | 4.42 | 0.21 | 5.02 | 3.38 | -1.64 | 3.15 | -1.87 | 4.64 | -0.38 |
| Jose Urena | FLA | 4.18 | 4.75 | 0.57 | 4.62 | 0.44 | 4.62 | 0.44 | 3.68 | 4.64 | 0.96 | 4.49 | 0.81 | 4.33 | 0.65 |
| Josh Smith | CIN | ||||||||||||||
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | 5.95 | 5.17 | -0.78 | 5.17 | -0.78 | 6.1 | 0.15 | 4.88 | 5.62 | 0.74 | 5.54 | 0.66 | 6.26 | 1.38 |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 3.09 | 3.27 | 0.18 | 3.33 | 0.24 | 3.29 | 0.2 | 3.47 | 3.01 | -0.46 | 3.01 | -0.46 | 3.21 | -0.26 |
| Michael Montgomery | SEA | 2.73 | 5.11 | 2.38 | 4.91 | 2.18 | 3.6 | 0.87 | 2.73 | 5.11 | 2.38 | 4.91 | 2.18 | 3.6 | 0.87 |
| Mike Fiers | MIL | 4.5 | 3.61 | -0.89 | 3.81 | -0.69 | 3.73 | -0.77 | 4.18 | 4.1 | -0.08 | 4.4 | 0.22 | 3.75 | -0.43 |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 2.97 | 4.55 | 1.58 | 4.48 | 1.51 | 4.13 | 1.16 | 2.94 | 4.6 | 1.66 | 4.17 | 1.23 | 3.7 | 0.76 |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | SDG | 4.92 | 4.36 | -0.56 | 4.3 | -0.62 | 4.69 | -0.23 | 3.62 | 3.87 | 0.25 | 3.78 | 0.16 | 4.09 | 0.47 |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 4.96 | 4.74 | -0.22 | 4.67 | -0.29 | 5.27 | 0.31 | 3.9 | 4.19 | 0.29 | 4.22 | 0.32 | 4.37 | 0.47 |
| Sean O’Sullivan | PHI | 4.79 | 5.02 | 0.23 | 5.08 | 0.29 | 5.63 | 0.84 | 6.04 | 5.57 | -0.47 | 5.62 | -0.42 | 5.89 | -0.15 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 3.38 | 4.32 | 0.94 | 4.28 | 0.9 | 5.08 | 1.7 | 3.86 | 4.18 | 0.32 | 4.12 | 0.26 | 5.51 | 1.65 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 3.27 | 3.46 | 0.19 | 3.31 | 0.04 | 3.43 | 0.16 | 3.94 | 3.64 | -0.3 | 3.63 | -0.31 | 4.01 | 0.07 |
| Zack Greinke | LOS | 1.81 | 3.22 | 1.41 | 3.22 | 1.41 | 2.95 | 1.14 | 2.41 | 2.55 | 0.14 | 2.53 | 0.12 | 2.78 | 0.37 |
Alex Wood is sitting on a .335 BABIP that’s not terribly out of range, but well above his team’s allowed BABIP. His batted ball rates and contact authority stats look to be about league average across the board. The Z-Contact% seems to be the one thing that is not up to par and well above his 86.6% mark last year. I’d expect some regression, but maybe he doesn’t get below .300. We’ve just how sustainable his low HR/FB is over the last two starts where it’s doubled. He’s in a good park most nights, so it has a chance to remain in single digits, but might have a bit more to go.
Carlos Martinez has a surprising 16.0 HR/FB this season, but a heavy ground ball rate. He’s only allowed 50 fly balls all season, so that should regress over time. The 83.9 LOB% is likely what’s allowed him to keep his run of starts with two or fewer ERs allowed going on occasion and is a prime candidate for some regression. It’s increased to 89.6% over the last month.
C.C. Sabathia has diminished stuff and he knows it. What he wants to do is avoid the center of the strike zone as much as possible and he’s done a good job in his walk and strikeout rates. However, he pitches in a lot of parks that do him no favor in the AL East and though he has a hard hit rate just below 30% (29.7%), I’m not sure how much regression we should expect from his 17.0 HR/FB. His 1.33 GB/FB is exactly his career mark, but his lowest mark since 2009. His 21.8 LD% isn’t too high and his other BABIP indicators in the chart below are a bit worse than average, but not too bad, so maybe we can expect some BABIP regression too, but his defense is not going to help him too much in that regard. I don’t even really expect him to be really good again, but he can be useful in the right spots and against a bad team with little power tonight might be one of those spots.
Collin McHugh profiles as a roughly league average or slightly worse pitcher this year, except a power friendly park hasn’t exactly helped and might be more reflected in his FIP. He hasn’t pitched in a pitcher’s park since this LA one he’s pitching in tonight on May 7th and has allowed just one of his 13 HRs in his three pitcher friendly park starts this season. He has to pitch where he has to pitch though and who knows how much we’ll see his 13.7 HR/FB improve, but the Astros have done well to suppress BABIP as a team, so we might see some improvement there and we already talked about the potential for an increased K%.
David Price has a solid 9.0 HR/FB mark for his career, but spent most of that in a great pitcher’s park. Detroit plays more neutral for runs and power, so I wouldn’t expect his career best 6.5 HR/FB to last.
Jeff Samardzija is striking out fewer batters, but still has league average K and SwStr rates. He has an elevated BABIP, but no good indicators, a 24.7 LD%, and a terrible defense. Unfortunately, there’s nothing to suggest much regression in his favor, which might not help his 67.5 LOB% either. His peripherals may translate to a league average pitcher, but his circumstances dictate something worse than that.
Jeremy Guthrie allowed 11 ERs and four HRs to the Yankees in New York on the 25th of May. He’s allowed eight ERs over 23 innings with 14 Ks and just four walks with two HRs since. If he has decent results tonight, which seems like a possibility, his “Last 30 Days” will look much different the next time he starts.
Jesse Chavez has a 5.1 HR/FB that actually rose is his dominant last start. He pitches in a great park, but even now that’s still a small number.
Mike Fiers – I don’t know why his BABIP is 144 points higher than last season. He has a 22.9 LD% that’s a bit higher than last season, but not insane and otherwise solid indicators in the chart below. The defense hasn’t helped, but we’re left looking at the opposite ends of extreme over each of the last two years. You can point to the frequency of hard hit balls, but that’s been shown to correlate less with BABIP and more with overall performance. Considering he has a normal 10.2 HR/FB, most of his hard hit balls are remaining in the park and probably contributing to a terrible BABIP. It’s the most reasonable explanation.
Zack Greinke is having a great season, but with a career low BABIP and 87.6 LOB% that makes it look even better. He does generate a lot of weak contact (22.8 Soft% is top 10 in baseball) and frequently miss bats in the zone, making him difficult to square up, but also only previously has two seasons with a sub .300 BABIP. His overall profile suggests an ERA about a run higher, which still makes him an all-star.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 9.5 IFFB% – 86.8 Z-Contact%)
A couple of years ago, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if a pitcher has a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it and maybe you’re onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Gonzalez | TEX | 0.285 | 0.183 | -0.102 | 3.6% | 90.6% |
| Alex Wood | ATL | 0.295 | 0.335 | 0.04 | 10.3% | 90.4% |
| C.J. Wilson | ANA | 0.275 | 0.270 | -0.005 | 10.9% | 89.0% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.293 | 0.286 | -0.007 | 8.0% | 89.5% |
| CC Sabathia | NYY | 0.308 | 0.343 | 0.035 | 9.1% | 89.9% |
| Chase Anderson | ARI | 0.295 | 0.291 | -0.004 | 9.2% | 88.0% |
| Chris Archer | TAM | 0.281 | 0.295 | 0.014 | 6.6% | 84.0% |
| Collin McHugh | HOU | 0.279 | 0.316 | 0.037 | 7.4% | 85.4% |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.317 | 0.315 | -0.002 | 9.0% | 81.4% |
| David Price | DET | 0.284 | 0.289 | 0.005 | 11.2% | 83.1% |
| Jason Hammel | CHC | 0.294 | 0.266 | -0.028 | 1.2% | 86.9% |
| Jeff Locke | PIT | 0.295 | 0.320 | 0.025 | 6.3% | 87.6% |
| Jeff Samardzija | CHW | 0.323 | 0.334 | 0.011 | 7.3% | 89.1% |
| Jeremy Guthrie | KAN | 0.273 | 0.307 | 0.034 | 8.4% | 89.0% |
| Jesse Chavez | OAK | 0.282 | 0.288 | 0.006 | 15.2% | 83.8% |
| Joe Kelly | BOS | 0.300 | 0.301 | 0.001 | 4.4% | 91.9% |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 0.295 | 0.319 | 0.024 | 7.0% | 92.7% |
| Jose Urena | FLA | 0.294 | 0.286 | -0.008 | 14.3% | 89.4% |
| Josh Smith | CIN | 0.278 | ||||
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | 0.311 | 0.273 | -0.038 | 9.0% | 90.5% |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 0.284 | 0.283 | -0.001 | 15.6% | 87.0% |
| Michael Montgomery | SEA | 0.286 | 0.247 | -0.039 | 2.9% | 90.6% |
| Mike Fiers | MIL | 0.314 | 0.368 | 0.054 | 14.8% | 85.3% |
| Mike Pelfrey | MIN | 0.297 | 0.287 | -0.01 | 6.1% | 93.5% |
| Odrisamer Despaigne | SDG | 0.310 | 0.288 | -0.022 | 4.6% | 92.2% |
| R.A. Dickey | TOR | 0.284 | 0.251 | -0.033 | 9.9% | 83.7% |
| Sean O’Sullivan | PHI | 0.309 | 0.283 | -0.026 | 7.0% | 91.9% |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.319 | 0.258 | -0.061 | 9.1% | 90.6% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.285 | 0.311 | 0.026 | 13.6% | 87.4% |
| Zack Greinke | LOS | 0.295 | 0.254 | -0.041 | 8.3% | 84.6% |
Jeremy Guthrie has a great team defense, but no otherwise even average indicators and a 26.0 LD%, though he does have a .282 career BABIP.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Carlos Martinez has been all the Cardinals can ask for. He generates strikeouts and has managed contact well. He has a very good matchup against an offense that doesn’t hit RHP in a big park tonight at a high, but reasonable price tonight.
C.J. Wilson could generate some strikeouts here and does a good job of generally keeping the ball in the park at home, but his price tag probably makes it difficult for him to generate too much value beyond it.
C.C. Sabathia – If he gets a favorable umpiring situation, he might be my top value of the night. The Phillies may have looked good last night, but have a negative Hard-Soft% vs LHP this year. Sabathia’s struggles this year have come mostly from the long ball as he still has very respectable K and BB rates and the Phillies just don’t have too many guys that can take lefties deep.
Chris Archer has a tough matchup that knocks him outside my top three overall. He could and probably should still be ok, but he better be really good for the price you’re asked to pay.
Danny Salazar – I have ranked pretty close to Archer overall, but with a slightly cheaper price tag across the board and slightly better matchup, he gets the potential value bump here. Both have tremendous upside obviously, but he’s in a slightly better spot with a slightly higher expected K rate, and has handled the Tigers well this year.
David Price – My top three overall guys are all pretty close together in tier one, so you’re basically looking at cost and Price is the most expensive. He absolutely deserves and still should be able to generate some value beyond it as he just shut out this team not too long ago. Cleveland has some great plate discipline stats, but he’s good enough to still generate better than average walk and strikeout rates. I’m fine with any of these three anchoring a double up lineup tonight, but the other two might generate slightly more expected value.
Jeff Samardzija may be a bit risky tonight due to failings this season, but may finally be putting it together with back to back strong starts for the first time in a while and is in a good enough spot here against a team that struggles against RHP that he might be worth taking a shot with tonight. He’s not cheap, but has a reasonable cost attached, close to the middle of most boards.
Jeremy Guthrie – Some pitchers will never be mentioned in this section and I thought he’d be one of them, but sometimes the spot is just perfect enough for a dumpster diving special. He’s in a great park against a struggling offense who may have just lost their cleanup hitter and the only guy really producing for them offensively this year. He hasn’t really been bad either since blowing up against the Yankees almost a month ago. He’s worth a look at the minimum price or close to it tonight.
Jesse Chavez isn’t in Oakland tonight, but the Rangers are really banged up and showing it. Chavez has pitched well enough that I may have to upgrade him from the average pitcher I’ve been calling him all along, but he’s still on the bottom of most boards and only priced excessively on one site that I can see. He’s still on the bottom half of the board on most sites and should be able to put up some decent or better numbers tonight.
Jon Niese – The long ball may be a problem, but he may generate some contrarian value tonight if all other DFS players see is a mediocre lefty facing a bunch of RH sluggers in a hitter’s park. It seems he’s priced more towards what people expect from the Brewers at home against a lefty than what they’ve actually done. We’re almost mid-way through the season and they have been really bad vs LHP at home.
Madison Bumgarner is one of the big three tonight and generally priced as #2 across the board, which is why I mention that I like his potential value a little bit better than Price tonight. He’s got a good matchup in a great park and projects to be one of the top strikeout generators tonight.
Mike Fiers has some major flaws, but faces a bad road offense that is really struggling right now and is priced reasonably in some places with an above average projected strikeout rate.
Zack Greinke is the last of the big three, but only alphabetically. He projects right there with Price and Bumgarner, though closer to Bumgarner at the top in terms of potential K rate tonight. He is the cheapest of the three though by a small margin, which may give him the most value here. It’s really close though. Look for weather, lineup, and umpire reports to really be the deciding factor between these guys tonight as those can make the difference when it’s really close.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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