Advanced Stats - Pitching Charts: Tuesday, September 1st
Leading off, a quick note that there will not be an article on Wednesday, tomorrow. Now that that’s out of the way, today is the first day of let’s see how many people you can stuff in a dugout month and the chaos has started already. At least three pitchers listed on MLB.com as of 9pm last night had already been scratched with Baltimore showing a TBD. There’s also the matter of a mid-day double-header in Colorado that’s more likely to wreak havoc with your hitting options when lineups for Game 2 potentially run late, but hopefully we got the pitching order correct there too. The good news is that if I guessed wrong, we’re probably not missing anyone highly coveted anyway.
Don’t forget to watch for lineups, umpire assignments, and Kevin’s weather report (and I’ll now add lineup movement) as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most of the stats in these charts are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats I use in these charts.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2014 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+. Combo stats are explained below.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ | Comb K% | Comb BB% | Comb LD% | Comb HR/FB% | Comb IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | -4.9 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 0.93 | 0.88 | 4.26 | 6.85 | NYM | 99 | 95 | 109 | 16.1% | 9.3% | 21.3% | 10.4% | 12.9% |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | -8.2 | 3.7 | 6.35 | 1.62 | 0.84 | 2.97 | 2.93 | TEX | 89 | 97 | 109 | 21.1% | 7.1% | 19.6% | 11.4% | 6.7% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 3 | 4.19 | 5.8 | 1.22 | 1.05 | 3.9 | 3.06 | CHC | 95 | 95 | 81 | 22.4% | 6.7% | 22.0% | 15.1% | 10.9% |
| Chris Sale | CHW | -7.4 | 2.53 | 6.77 | 1.12 | 1.05 | 2.63 | 1.93 | MIN | 105 | 97 | 118 | 28.1% | 6.3% | 19.6% | 11.3% | 11.5% |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 7.7 | 4.31 | 5.97 | 1.08 | 1.04 | 4.21 | 4.95 | TAM | 95 | 91 | 122 | 18.1% | 7.4% | 21.5% | 10.8% | 8.8% |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | -1.3 | 4.71 | 5.79 | 1.37 | 1.05 | 4.82 | 4.48 | TOR | 126 | 111 | 163 | 16.6% | 9.1% | 20.4% | 15.9% | 17.8% |
| Cody Martin | OAK | -8.4 | 3.12 | 0.72 | 0.93 | 3.07 | ANA | 89 | 98 | 78 | |||||||
| Dan Haren | CHC | 4.1 | 3.95 | 5.8 | 0.88 | 1.05 | 4.17 | 4.98 | CIN | 85 | 89 | 89 | 18.0% | 6.8% | 19.5% | 10.3% | 7.8% |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | 9.4 | 3.58 | 5.68 | 0.84 | 1.04 | 4.02 | 4.6 | BAL | 107 | 88 | 62 | 21.5% | 6.0% | 21.6% | 11.3% | 9.5% |
| Manuel Banuelos | ATL | -2.3 | 4.83 | 5.05 | 1.08 | 0.98 | 3.85 | FLA | 87 | 99 | 78 | ||||||
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | -3.4 | 3.14 | 6.4 | 1.69 | 1.07 | 3.19 | 3.54 | MIL | 87 | 90 | 107 | 23.1% | 6.4% | 23.3% | 10.8% | 7.7% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -3.9 | 3.96 | 5.93 | 1.6 | 1.07 | 3.63 | 6.68 | PIT | 92 | 99 | 84 | 20.2% | 10.1% | 20.4% | 10.2% | 7.3% |
| Joe Ross | WAS | -5 | 3.09 | 6.02 | 1.43 | 0.98 | 2.67 | 3.12 | STL | 101 | 100 | 127 | 21.4% | 6.0% | 16.2% | 9.4% | 7.7% |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 10.2 | 3.32 | 7. | 1.25 | 1.04 | 3.03 | 3.54 | DET | 104 | 102 | 70 | 21.8% | 5.5% | 20.9% | 12.9% | 9.0% |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 2 | 3.92 | 6.2 | 1.83 | 0.88 | 3.71 | 5.24 | PHI | 85 | 94 | 82 | 19.7% | 7.6% | 22.5% | 12.7% | 8.2% |
| Justin Nicolino | FLA | 4.3 | 5.42 | 6.17 | 1.45 | 0.98 | 5.41 | 5.3 | ATL | 90 | 81 | 91 | 14.4% | 9.0% | 19.9% | 9.4% | 7.8% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 4.2 | 3.94 | 6.49 | 0.88 | 1.04 | 4.59 | 2.56 | KAN | 108 | 103 | 98 | 18.9% | 6.9% | 19.5% | 6.4% | 12.1% |
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | -2.8 | 4.65 | 5.86 | 1.17 | 1.4 | 4.45 | ARI | 94 | 95 | 66 | ||||||
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 2.2 | 2.91 | 6.63 | 1.23 | 0.89 | 2.76 | 2.1 | LOS | 115 | 113 | 86 | 25.4% | 7.2% | 21.6% | 9.0% | 11.6% |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | -1.6 | 4.04 | 6.05 | 0.65 | 1.05 | 4.38 | 4.21 | CLE | 90 | 101 | 142 | 19.7% | 7.9% | 19.3% | 10.0% | 11.2% |
| Marco Gonzales | STL | 1.7 | 4.65 | 5.04 | 0.88 | 0.98 | 4.49 | WAS | 94 | 92 | 138 | ||||||
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 3.3 | 3.5 | 5.81 | 0.98 | 0.93 | 3.24 | 3.59 | OAK | 99 | 97 | 117 | 20.6% | 6.5% | 19.9% | 8.3% | 7.2% |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | -5.2 | 3.14 | 6.01 | 1.38 | 1.07 | 3.11 | 3.72 | BOS | 112 | 98 | 82 | 20.4% | 5.3% | 21.9% | 18.5% | 8.5% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | -3.8 | 3.84 | 6.25 | 1.54 | 1.07 | 3.75 | 3.34 | NYY | 105 | 104 | 136 | 18.3% | 6.8% | 20.8% | 9.9% | 9.1% |
| Roenis Elias | SEA | -2.9 | 4.03 | 5.77 | 1.29 | 1.01 | 4.08 | 4.64 | HOU | 109 | 101 | 139 | 19.2% | 7.9% | 18.2% | 11.2% | 8.1% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 3.2 | 4.08 | 5.93 | 1.52 | 1.4 | 3.79 | 4.46 | COL | 94 | 94 | 67 | 18.7% | 7.8% | 19.7% | 12.9% | 9.0% |
| Scott Feldman | HOU | -0.9 | 4.3 | 6.21 | 1.63 | 1.01 | 4.12 | 4.15 | SEA | 94 | 98 | 131 | 17.5% | 6.2% | 20.3% | 12.7% | 8.3% |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 2.6 | 4.45 | 5.25 | 1.18 | 1.05 | 3.77 | 3.92 | CHW | 90 | 91 | 86 | 21.5% | 9.9% | 21.0% | 7.2% | 25.8% |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 2.9 | 4.09 | 5.94 | 1.71 | 0.84 | 4.11 | 4.72 | SDG | 97 | 91 | 90 | 18.4% | 7.3% | 20.6% | 9.0% | 8.2% |
| Zack Greinke | LOS | 1.8 | 3 | 6.52 | 1.55 | 0.89 | 2.79 | 2.92 | SFO | 103 | 108 | 102 | 22.5% | 6.0% | 20.5% | 10.1% | 8.6% |
Andrew Cashner hasn’t had the best season with just an average 12.6 K-BB%, the same as last year, but does have an 18.3 K-BB% and 6.4 HR/FB at home since last season. A reduction in his ability to miss bats is a bit concerning, but he may be able to make up for some of that facing a Texas team on the road, without a DH, in the comfort of his friendly home park. The Rangers are a below average road team (14.9 K-BB%) and great park adjusted matchup.
Anthony DeSclafani has pitched at least six innings with two ERs or less in four of his last six starts. His 10.1 K-BB% is below average, but he has a chance to bump that K rate tonight against an offense that strikes out a lot. The Cubs have a 24.0 K% both at home and vs RHP and a 29.8 K% over the last week. They are a slightly below average offense at home and vs RHP, park adjusting to somewhere around neutral.
Chris Sale struck out just seven of 28 batters in his last start. It tied his lowest mark over his last seven starts and he hasn’t struck out fewer than six since April. He’s regularly getting through seven innings and has one of the highest fantasy floors in the league. He retains a 27.0 K-BB% on the road since last season and has one of the highest SwStr%’s of the pitchf/x era this season in addition to the highest K% in baseball this year as he has struck out 1/3 of the batters he’s faced. When contact is made, it’s more often of the weak variety (-0.9 Hard-Soft%). Minnesota is a good home offense with some power, but have a 27.2 K% over the last week. They park adjust to a tough matchup in a positive run environment.
Drew Smyly has allowed three HRs in 14 innings over three starts since returning, allowing eight total runs with 11 strikeouts over 68 batters. That’s below expectations for sure, but the velocity and the SwStr rate has been there, so there’s reason for optimism. He also faces a team that struggles against LHPs. Baltimore is a good home offense (15.7 HR/FB), but bad vs LHP (16.7 K-BB%) and ice cold (28.9 K% over the last week), remaining a favorable matchup even with the positive park adjustment.
Gerrit Cole is just one of the top pitchers in the National League that doesn’t really get talked about as much as some of the others. His 18.8 K-BB% is 14th in all of baseball with a 17.7 K-BB% on the road since last season. Oddly just two of his nine HRs have come on the road this season despite a home park that suppresses power. He gets a big park downgrade tonight, but gets to face the poor offense that inhabits it. They are one of the worst home offenses and below average vs RHP, but adjust to near neutral with a positive park bump.
Joe Ross and his 20.3 K-BB% would be just outside the top 10 in baseball if he qualified. Heavy slider usage is apparently a Ross family philosophy, but whatever works. He doesn’t generate the ground ball rate his brother does, but seems to have better control, at least so far. The Cardinals don’t hit a lot of HRs at home (8.3 HR/FB), but are an average offense both at home and vs RHP and a fairly neutral matchup with little park adjustment here.
Johnny Cueto has allowed 12 ERs over his last 11 innings and has a 3.95 ERA in six Kansas City starts because, as everyone expected, his BABIP blew up to .320 after being traded to the best defensive team in baseball who play in a much bigger park. However, his 16.1 K-BB% isn’t much lower than his full season mark and may leave us an opportunity to zig when everyone zags against a tough Detroit team. The Tigers are a decent road offense, but with a 15.0 K-BB% and neutral against RHP, but cold over the last week and park adjust to neutral in a positive overall run environment.
Jon Niese was pitching well before being roughed up for being roughed up for 12 runs over his last two starts. One was in Colorado, but the most recent was just a disaster in Philly where he walked five batters. He gets the rematch tonight at home, where he’s been a league average pitcher since last season. The Phillies are a poor road offense (15.0 K-BB%, 7.9 HR/FB) and below average vs LHP (0.5 Hard-Soft%) with a 27.9 K% over the last week. They are one of tonight’s top park adjusted matchups.
Madison Bumgarner has allowed one run or less in six of eight starts since the All-Star break with double digit strikeouts in three of his last four. His career high 23.1 K-BB% is now 5th in the majors and the 3rd straight season it’s improved. The Dodgers are the 2nd best home offense in baseball (13.4 HR/FB) and after two no-hitters, now better vs LHP than RHP, but adjust down to a neutral matchup in a tough overall run environment at home.
Matt Shoemaker had been pitching great for a month and a half since late June, then got smashed in two straight starts, made a start in the minors, and came back to throw seven shutout innings of one hit ball against Detroit because baseball. His 15.1 K-BB% is not as good as last season, but an above average mark. HRs have been an issue for him, even in power suppressing environments, though it’s something he’d seemed to have under control recently, aside from those two terrible starts where he allowed four. He’s already faced Oakland four times this season without success, but not since the end of June when his hot run started. In fact, his last two starts before pitching well were against Oakland. The A’s are an average offense both at home and against RHP. They don’t strike out often, but rarely leave the yard either. A negative park adjustment leaves them a slightly favorable matchup here.
Michael Pineda has allowed 14 ERs over his last 16 starts with four HRs and a total nine strikeouts with a gap of a month between his last start and previous two for a forearm issue not helping much. With just one start in August, I wouldn’t pay too much attention to his stats over the last month below, but his velocity seemed ok in his return. If healthy, we know he’s better than this and may offer an opportunity with a reduced price tag, though he faces a tough home offense in a difficult run environment, where they result in an unfavorable matchup who don’t strike out much.
Rick Porcello has allowed two ERs or less in four of his last five starts with seven innings of one run or better ball in two of his last three. He’s having a down year, mostly due to an increase in HRs and a change in pitching style that’s resulted in fewer ground balls, but he does have a respectable 13.3 K-BB% and has only allowed seven of 20 HRs at home in the same number of innings with a 14.6 K-BB%. He faces a tough Yankees offense with a 13.3 HR/FB vs RHP, but much of that damage is due to the short porch at home. Still, they rate as a very unfavorable park adjusted matchup in a difficult run environment.
Tyler Duffey was very mediocre after being endorsed as a low cost upside play here in his last outing, but that’s the risk with low cost plays and he didn’t hurt you that bad. He both walked and struck out four in 27 batters, his second start with at least four walks in four tries. The overall profile in the small sample of four starts is below average due to the high walk rate, but that wasn’t a problem in the minors and he has shown league average swing and miss ability so far, which is more or less consistent with his most recent minor league numbers. He faces a below average offense at home tonight and even with a positive park bump, they remain a favorable matchup. The White Sox have just a 1.9 HR/FB and 0.5 Hard-Soft% over the last week with just a 5.7 BB% on the road, which should help with his control issue.
Zack Greinke has struck out at least eight in six of his last nine starts with no fewer than six innings in any start this season. In fact, he’s gone at least seven in nine of his last 11. He has a 21.7 K-BB% at home since last season with an increase in both SwStr% and K% over the last month. The Giants are one of just a few teams with an above average offense on the road and are 2nd best vs RHP, but they are modest numbers overall and still park adjust down to a slightly favorable matchup here.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.294 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 10.8 HR/FB)
Extreme deviations from league averages are italicized
Dan Haren (.254 BABIP – 80.3 LOB% – 12.4 HR/FB)
Yovani Gallardo (.284 BABIP – 77.0 LOB% – 7.5 HR/FB) – The HR rate is well below his career average, which has been at least 11.9% each of the last four years. Although, I would now consider Texas an upgrade from Milwaukee in terms of how power plays, it’s not that much of an upgrade. Unfortunately, a 6.2 K-BB% is awful and half his career mark. It’s a shame he can’t be more useful in a great matchup here.
Marco Estrada (.234 BABIP – 76.3 LOB% – 7.5 HR/FB) – He does generate a lot of pop ups and has a career .268 BABIP, but that’s still 34 points higher. He has a career 11.0 HR/FB and it’s not like he’s suddenly pitching in San Francisco every start now.
Justin Nicolino (.268 BABIP – 75.3 LOB% – 7.5 HR/FB) – He has a 0.7 K-BB% with just 12 strikeouts in 37 innings.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Justin Verlander nearly threw a no-hitter last time out and would be given much more consideration today if he weren’t facing the Royals at an increased price tag. Is he back? He’s certainly been pitching great and all the numbers back him up. It would be a great story, though I don’t know if he’ll ever be a Cy Young contender again. It’s just too bad he likely loses too much value facing the Royals.
Rubby de la Rosa
Jimmy Nelson – Slightly below average pitcher, average price, average offense, in a tough park.
Marco Gonzales was the 19th overall pick in 2013 and pitched 34.2 difficult innings with the big league team last season with five starts, but hasn’t seen the major leagues yet this year. His 8.1 K-BB% with nine HRs allowed in 64 AAA innings this season is unimpressive. He hasn’t gone more than six innings in any of 16 minor league starts this year. It’s difficult to imagine a St Louis prospect not working out though. They don’t do busts in that organization.
Cody Martin came over from Atlanta in one trade or another at some point this season, but put up an average K% in 10 AAA starts for Oakland, but also a 12.1 BB%. His strikeouts played up, but he had issues with hard contact out of the Atlanta bullpen in 21.2 innings this season.
Manuel Banuelos has pitched a total of four minor league innings over the last month, walking four of the 20 batters he faced and gets an unplanned start on Tuesday that will probably feature many innings from the bullpen. He was pitching over his head with an 85.1 LOB% in his four major league starts this year.
Combo K/BB Charts
These are the Combo K & BB numbers from above fleshed out. They are weighted equally in the main chart above. They probably shouldn’t be, but originally were due to size limitations. What’s the correct weighting? Who knows? But now you have all 6 components (Pitcher: L2Yrs, H/R, L14Days – Opposition: H/A, vL/R, L7Days) that make up the above numbers.
| Pitcher | Team | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | Phillies | 17.3% | 7.9% | Road | 18.0% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 5.4% | 12.5% |
| Andrew Cashner | Padres | 19.8% | 6.4% | Home | 23.2% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 26.4% | 9.4% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 17.9% | 7.0% | Road | 18.0% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 2.0% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | 31.1% | 5.4% | Road | 32.2% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 38.9% | 5.6% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 17.5% | 7.8% | Home | 17.1% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| Cody Anderson | Indians | 11.4% | 4.8% | Road | 11.7% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 11.8% |
| Cody Martin | Athletics | 26.1% | 7.6% | Home | 32.6% | 8.7% | L14 Days | ||
| Dan Haren | Cubs | 18.4% | 4.8% | Home | 17.0% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 14.9% | 6.4% |
| Drew Smyly | Rays | 22.4% | 6.5% | Road | 20.1% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 14.9% | 4.3% |
| Manuel Banuelos | Braves | 17.2% | 10.8% | Home | 25.6% | 7.0% | L14 Days | ||
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | 24.9% | 6.4% | Road | 23.7% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 4.9% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | 19.8% | 8.3% | Home | 21.4% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 18.6% | 23.3% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | 24.4% | 4.1% | Road | 25.9% | 2.1% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 4.3% |
| Johnny Cueto | Royals | 23.9% | 6.1% | Home | 27.1% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 1.9% |
| Jon Niese | Mets | 16.8% | 6.2% | Home | 17.4% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 14.6% | 12.7% |
| Justin Nicolino | Marlins | 8.0% | 7.3% | Road | 7.2% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 9.8% | 8.5% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | 20.0% | 6.8% | Road | 16.9% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 5.7% |
| Kyle Kendrick | Rockies | 13.5% | 6.7% | Home | 14.6% | 7.1% | L14 Days | ||
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 26.4% | 4.8% | Road | 28.7% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 6.1% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 20.5% | 7.3% | Home | 20.0% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 6.5% |
| Marco Gonzales | Cardinals | 19.9% | 13.5% | Home | 24.4% | 13.4% | L14 Days | ||
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | 22.1% | 5.3% | Road | 25.0% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 4.6% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | 22.4% | 2.9% | Road | 23.1% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 5.3% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 17.2% | 5.1% | Home | 16.6% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 0.0% |
| Roenis Elias | Mariners | 19.9% | 8.6% | Road | 20.7% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 9.1% | 3.0% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | Diamondbacks | 17.9% | 7.5% | Road | 18.8% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 9.3% |
| Scott Feldman | Astros | 14.1% | 6.3% | Home | 12.6% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 13.6% | 3.4% |
| Tyler Duffey | Twins | 21.3% | 11.7% | Home | 30.4% | 21.7% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 6.9% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 17.1% | 7.6% | Road | 16.9% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 8.7% |
| Zack Greinke | Dodgers | 24.8% | 4.9% | Home | 26.2% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 3.9% |
Combo K/BB Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | Home | 20.3% | 8.5% | RH | 20.2% | 7.6% | L7Days | 15.1% | 11.7% |
| Rangers | Road | 21.7% | 6.8% | RH | 19.0% | 7.7% | L7Days | 16.5% | 7.1% |
| Cubs | Home | 24.0% | 9.4% | RH | 24.0% | 8.9% | L7Days | 29.8% | 7.5% |
| Twins | Home | 18.9% | 6.9% | LH | 20.1% | 6.9% | L7Days | 27.2% | 7.6% |
| Rays | Road | 20.7% | 7.2% | RH | 21.6% | 7.0% | L7Days | 19.1% | 7.6% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 16.8% | 9.5% | RH | 18.9% | 8.6% | L7Days | 17.3% | 12.7% |
| Angels | Road | 18.9% | 7.3% | RH | 19.6% | 7.1% | L7Days | 21.2% | 9.0% |
| Reds | Road | 19.6% | 7.4% | RH | 19.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 18.4% | 9.7% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.7% | 6.9% | LH | 22.1% | 5.4% | L7Days | 28.9% | 6.6% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.0% | 5.9% | LH | 21.2% | 6.3% | L7Days | 17.2% | 2.1% |
| Brewers | Home | 20.9% | 7.6% | RH | 20.7% | 6.6% | L7Days | 27.5% | 6.6% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.1% | 7.0% | RH | 20.6% | 7.1% | L7Days | 18.7% | 9.1% |
| Cardinals | Home | 18.6% | 8.4% | RH | 19.2% | 7.6% | L7Days | 17.0% | 9.7% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.1% | 7.1% | RH | 19.9% | 6.7% | L7Days | 17.3% | 6.1% |
| Phillies | Road | 20.8% | 5.8% | LH | 20.8% | 7.2% | L7Days | 27.9% | 8.3% |
| Braves | Home | 18.5% | 8.9% | LH | 20.7% | 8.5% | L7Days | 22.3% | 13.7% |
| Royals | Home | 14.0% | 6.7% | RH | 15.5% | 6.4% | L7Days | 14.7% | 8.5% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 20.8% | 7.3% | RH | 20.8% | 7.5% | L7Days | 22.3% | 5.8% |
| Dodgers | Home | 20.1% | 8.5% | LH | 20.6% | 9.6% | L7Days | 19.9% | 8.1% |
| Indians | Road | 18.9% | 8.6% | RH | 18.9% | 9.1% | L7Days | 18.4% | 9.2% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.3% | 8.4% | LH | 21.9% | 8.7% | L7Days | 21.1% | 10.9% |
| Athletics | Home | 16.2% | 7.5% | RH | 18.0% | 7.1% | L7Days | 19.3% | 8.6% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.0% | 7.6% | RH | 17.2% | 7.4% | L7Days | 26.7% | 5.0% |
| Yankees | Road | 18.5% | 8.7% | RH | 19.4% | 8.4% | L7Days | 19.0% | 14.0% |
| Astros | Home | 24.4% | 8.5% | LH | 22.8% | 9.3% | L7Days | 18.0% | 9.0% |
| Rockies | Home | 18.3% | 7.0% | RH | 20.3% | 6.1% | L7Days | 18.5% | 8.6% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.9% | 7.1% | RH | 21.6% | 8.2% | L7Days | 22.3% | 7.4% |
| White Sox | Road | 19.8% | 5.7% | RH | 20.2% | 6.3% | L7Days | 16.8% | 6.9% |
| Padres | Home | 22.1% | 6.5% | RH | 21.5% | 6.6% | L7Days | 19.8% | 5.0% |
| Giants | Road | 18.9% | 7.2% | RH | 18.6% | 7.4% | L7Days | 19.1% | 8.2% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts
See the explanation for the K/BB chart above.
| Pitcher | Team | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | Phillies | 21.8% | 8.5% | 9.2% | Road | 21.9% | 7.2% | 12.1% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 14.3% | 23.8% |
| Andrew Cashner | Padres | 20.0% | 9.0% | 7.6% | Home | 20.7% | 6.4% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 20.0% | 0.0% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | Reds | 21.8% | 9.6% | 7.6% | Road | 22.7% | 13.3% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 25.7% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | 19.6% | 9.1% | 12.2% | Road | 19.6% | 10.0% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 17.2% | 9.1% | 18.2% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | 20.0% | 9.3% | 10.4% | Home | 20.3% | 7.2% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 15.0% | 5.0% |
| Cody Anderson | Indians | 22.0% | 12.3% | 14.0% | Road | 18.2% | 12.9% | 16.1% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 16.7% | 33.3% |
| Cody Martin | Athletics | 25.9% | 16.0% | 4.0% | Home | 28.0% | 10.0% | 10.0% | L14 Days | |||
| Dan Haren | Cubs | 19.9% | 12.1% | 10.9% | Home | 19.2% | 9.3% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 10.5% | 0.0% |
| Drew Smyly | Rays | 20.2% | 10.6% | 14.0% | Road | 18.4% | 10.7% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Manuel Banuelos | Braves | 23.1% | 8.3% | 4.2% | Home | 25.9% | 0.0% | 10.0% | L14 Days | |||
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | 21.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | Road | 21.1% | 11.2% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 25.4% | 5.9% | 0.0% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | 20.3% | 10.2% | 10.2% | Home | 19.6% | 13.9% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 12.5% | 0.0% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | 15.0% | 11.1% | 11.1% | Road | 13.5% | 6.5% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 6.5% | 9.1% | 9.1% |
| Johnny Cueto | Royals | 20.4% | 9.8% | 10.8% | Home | 19.0% | 12.6% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 23.5% | 11.8% |
| Jon Niese | Mets | 21.6% | 11.6% | 6.7% | Home | 22.7% | 12.7% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 22.2% | 11.1% |
| Justin Nicolino | Marlins | 20.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | Road | 17.5% | 10.0% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 9.5% | 9.5% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | 20.7% | 7.2% | 12.2% | Road | 16.7% | 7.4% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Kyle Kendrick | Rockies | 21.5% | 13.3% | 10.0% | Home | 23.3% | 15.8% | 11.5% | L14 Days | |||
| Madison Bumgarner | Giants | 20.7% | 9.6% | 12.4% | Road | 25.0% | 8.8% | 13.8% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 17.7% | 10.0% | 12.2% | Home | 17.7% | 9.4% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 10.5% | 10.5% |
| Marco Gonzales | Cardinals | 22.5% | 9.5% | 23.8% | Home | 22.0% | 4.3% | 26.1% | L14 Days | |||
| Matt Shoemaker | Angels | 19.3% | 11.3% | 7.1% | Road | 18.9% | 10.8% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | 19.9% | 9.6% | 11.2% | Road | 19.0% | 11.2% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | 22.0% | 12.0% | 8.3% | Home | 21.3% | 11.8% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 0.0% | 12.5% |
| Roenis Elias | Mariners | 20.3% | 10.8% | 10.4% | Road | 22.1% | 9.9% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 7.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | Diamondbacks | 19.5% | 14.6% | 7.5% | Road | 17.5% | 15.3% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 15.8% | 13.3% | 13.3% |
| Scott Feldman | Astros | 22.4% | 10.7% | 7.4% | Home | 22.4% | 12.5% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% |
| Tyler Duffey | Twins | 22.6% | 13.6% | 13.6% | Home | 9.1% | 0.0% | 100.0% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Rangers | 20.3% | 10.3% | 6.6% | Road | 20.7% | 12.1% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 0.0% | 11.1% |
| Zack Greinke | Dodgers | 21.7% | 9.0% | 12.2% | Home | 22.0% | 10.8% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 12.5% | 6.3% |
Combo Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% | Split | LD% | HR/FB% | IFFB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mets | Home | 21.6% | 12.1% | 12.2% | RH | 22.5% | 10.6% | 11.9% | L7Days | 24.6% | 9.6% | 8.2% |
| Rangers | Road | 18.6% | 11.0% | 9.6% | RH | 18.9% | 10.6% | 9.1% | L7Days | 21.1% | 11.3% | 7.5% |
| Cubs | Home | 21.2% | 12.7% | 10.9% | RH | 20.2% | 12.6% | 9.7% | L7Days | 20.3% | 17.1% | 7.3% |
| Twins | Home | 21.5% | 12.6% | 10.8% | LH | 19.7% | 11.9% | 9.0% | L7Days | 19.7% | 15.3% | 6.8% |
| Rays | Road | 20.9% | 10.2% | 10.2% | RH | 21.4% | 9.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 24.6% | 13.5% | 8.1% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 19.6% | 15.6% | 14.2% | RH | 19.2% | 14.7% | 12.9% | L7Days | 24.9% | 23.3% | 16.4% |
| Angels | Road | 18.8% | 10.3% | 8.8% | RH | 20.3% | 11.6% | 9.2% | L7Days | 23.6% | 7.1% | 5.4% |
| Reds | Road | 19.6% | 10.1% | 8.8% | RH | 20.9% | 10.0% | 9.3% | L7Days | 18.5% | 9.6% | 5.8% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.6% | 15.7% | 7.5% | LH | 20.8% | 11.7% | 9.3% | L7Days | 20.5% | 12.5% | 10.7% |
| Marlins | Road | 21.5% | 11.5% | 8.8% | LH | 21.1% | 12.9% | 8.1% | L7Days | 20.1% | 12.3% | 12.3% |
| Brewers | Home | 21.7% | 11.4% | 7.1% | RH | 21.2% | 10.5% | 7.7% | L7Days | 28.8% | 17.9% | 12.8% |
| Pirates | Road | 21.1% | 9.0% | 7.9% | RH | 21.1% | 9.9% | 6.9% | L7Days | 20.3% | 5.6% | 9.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.8% | 8.3% | 8.6% | RH | 22.3% | 9.5% | 9.4% | L7Days | 18.1% | 12.1% | 1.7% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.6% | 12.2% | 7.6% | RH | 21.7% | 10.3% | 8.6% | L7Days | 18.1% | 8.8% | 5.9% |
| Phillies | Road | 22.7% | 7.9% | 8.8% | LH | 22.3% | 8.9% | 8.9% | L7Days | 17.6% | 12.8% | 6.4% |
| Braves | Home | 21.2% | 8.4% | 8.6% | LH | 20.7% | 10.1% | 6.0% | L7Days | 21.2% | 10.8% | 5.4% |
| Royals | Home | 21.2% | 7.7% | 8.7% | RH | 21.3% | 8.8% | 9.7% | L7Days | 18.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 20.6% | 11.4% | 9.8% | RH | 21.7% | 10.4% | 8.9% | L7Days | 24.6% | 9.3% | 4.7% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.2% | 13.4% | 8.5% | LH | 22.3% | 11.4% | 8.4% | L7Days | 21.1% | 10.8% | 13.8% |
| Indians | Road | 20.5% | 10.0% | 10.5% | RH | 21.6% | 10.0% | 12.3% | L7Days | 25.5% | 10.2% | 10.2% |
| Nationals | Road | 22.1% | 13.0% | 8.9% | LH | 19.8% | 12.6% | 9.5% | L7Days | 22.1% | 22.6% | 7.5% |
| Athletics | Home | 19.7% | 6.7% | 11.5% | RH | 20.5% | 9.0% | 9.6% | L7Days | 16.2% | 11.7% | 8.3% |
| Red Sox | Home | 20.9% | 11.5% | 9.2% | RH | 20.3% | 10.2% | 10.3% | L7Days | 15.4% | 18.6% | 9.3% |
| Yankees | Road | 21.4% | 11.9% | 8.1% | RH | 21.0% | 13.3% | 8.9% | L7Days | 25.0% | 10.4% | 9.0% |
| Astros | Home | 17.9% | 17.7% | 9.9% | LH | 19.7% | 13.6% | 8.8% | L7Days | 22.0% | 14.9% | 7.5% |
| Rockies | Home | 22.4% | 13.1% | 8.2% | RH | 21.2% | 14.1% | 8.8% | L7Days | 21.8% | 6.7% | 10.0% |
| Mariners | Road | 19.9% | 14.1% | 7.3% | RH | 20.1% | 12.6% | 6.7% | L7Days | 20.6% | 20.0% | 13.3% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.8% | 9.6% | 10.8% | RH | 21.5% | 11.1% | 10.0% | L7Days | 22.2% | 1.9% | 13.5% |
| Padres | Home | 20.5% | 11.2% | 7.3% | RH | 19.4% | 10.3% | 8.3% | L7Days | 19.8% | 10.0% | 10.0% |
| Giants | Road | 22.3% | 12.0% | 6.3% | RH | 21.4% | 10.4% | 6.9% | L7Days | 21.2% | 6.0% | 9.0% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.8 SwStr% – 2.06 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | 14.3% | 7.7% | 1.86 | 7.6% | 5.6% | 1.36 |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 19.9% | 7.9% | 2.52 | 19.2% | 6.8% | 2.82 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 17.9% | 8.6% | 2.08 | 22.8% | 8.0% | 2.85 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 33.2% | 15.3% | 2.17 | 38.5% | 15.5% | 2.48 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 16.1% | 7.6% | 2.12 | 12.6% | 6.4% | 1.97 |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 11.4% | 8.4% | 1.36 | 17.5% | 8.0% | 2.19 |
| Cody Martin | OAK | 26.1% | 8.4% | 3.11 | |||
| Dan Haren | CHC | 16.9% | 6.0% | 2.82 | 17.4% | 6.7% | 2.60 |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | 24.4% | 10.7% | 2.28 | 16.2% | 10.1% | 1.60 |
| Manuel Banuelos | ATL | 17.2% | 9.1% | 1.89 | |||
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 24.3% | 10.1% | 2.41 | 23.4% | 10.5% | 2.23 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 20.4% | 10.3% | 1.98 | 20.6% | 9.2% | 2.24 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 24.4% | 12.8% | 1.91 | 22.6% | 12.0% | 1.88 |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 22.2% | 10.4% | 2.13 | 17.6% | 8.7% | 2.02 |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 15.7% | 5.9% | 2.66 | 18.1% | 5.4% | 3.35 |
| Justin Nicolino | FLA | 8.0% | 5.1% | 1.57 | 7.5% | 5.1% | 1.47 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 20.7% | 10.5% | 1.97 | 26.7% | 12.0% | 2.23 |
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | 11.6% | 6.1% | 1.90 | |||
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 27.4% | 12.7% | 2.16 | 37.9% | 15.2% | 2.49 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 19.1% | 10.3% | 1.85 | 20.2% | 9.1% | 2.22 |
| Marco Gonzales | STL | ||||||
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 21.1% | 9.2% | 2.29 | 21.8% | 9.0% | 2.42 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 23.6% | 12.0% | 1.97 | 15.8% | 7.0% | 2.26 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 18.4% | 8.4% | 2.19 | 19.2% | 8.5% | 2.26 |
| Roenis Elias | SEA | 18.6% | 9.6% | 1.94 | 9.1% | 10.1% | 0.90 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 18.9% | 11.5% | 1.64 | 14.7% | 11.5% | 1.28 |
| Scott Feldman | HOU | 13.6% | 6.9% | 1.97 | 14.2% | 7.7% | 1.84 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 21.3% | 9.1% | 2.34 | 21.3% | 9.1% | 2.34 |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 15.0% | 6.6% | 2.27 | 13.0% | 6.7% | 1.94 |
| Zack Greinke | LOS | 24.1% | 12.0% | 2.01 | 27.7% | 14.9% | 1.86 |
Andrew Cashner hasn’t lost much off of a slightly below average K% over the last month, but has seen his SwStr% drop to a disturbing rate. Despite picking up 14 Ks over his last 53 batters, his SwStr did not exceed 6.1% in either start. He has not had a double digit SwStr% in 10 starts.
Anthony DeSclafani – It’s difficult to trust a significant rise in K% that comes with a drop in SwStr%.
Drew Smyly has had a double digit SwStr% in two of his three starts since returning despite the lower K%, which is something to be encouraged by.
Jon Niese – Don’t buy into the slight rise in K% over the last month as the SwStr% has remained steady.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 3.85 ERA – 3.78 SIERA – 3.85 xFIP – 3.85 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | 4.79 | 4.86 | 0.07 | 4.95 | 0.16 | 4.68 | -0.11 | 8.04 | 6.2 | -1.84 | 6.18 | -1.86 | 7.16 | -0.88 |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 4.05 | 3.91 | -0.14 | 3.81 | -0.24 | 3.92 | -0.13 | 3.72 | 3.89 | 0.17 | 3.64 | -0.08 | 3.54 | -0.18 |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 3.84 | 4.3 | 0.46 | 4.17 | 0.33 | 3.98 | 0.14 | 4.2 | 3.18 | -1.02 | 3.01 | -1.19 | 3.92 | -0.28 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 3.2 | 2.39 | -0.81 | 2.51 | -0.69 | 2.38 | -0.82 | 3.21 | 2.16 | -1.05 | 2.49 | -0.72 | 2.44 | -0.77 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 4.58 | 4.63 | 0.05 | 4.53 | -0.05 | 4.33 | -0.25 | 5.73 | 4.74 | -0.99 | 4.43 | -1.3 | 5.81 | 0.08 |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 4.3 | 4.71 | 0.41 | 4.41 | 0.11 | 4.58 | 0.28 | 7.24 | 4.57 | -2.67 | 4.56 | -2.68 | 4.66 | -2.58 |
| Cody Martin | OAK | 5.4 | 3.12 | -2.28 | 3.69 | -1.71 | 4.42 | -0.98 | |||||||
| Dan Haren | CHC | 3.9 | 4.43 | 0.53 | 4.64 | 0.74 | 4.9 | 1 | 6.31 | 4.35 | -1.96 | 4.58 | -1.73 | 6.32 | 0.01 |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | 3.82 | 3.43 | -0.39 | 3.56 | -0.26 | 4.69 | 0.87 | 5.14 | 4.65 | -0.49 | 4.68 | -0.46 | 5.2 | 0.06 |
| Manuel Banuelos | ATL | 2.49 | 4.82 | 2.33 | 4.91 | 2.42 | 4.51 | 2.02 | |||||||
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 2.44 | 3.16 | 0.72 | 3.08 | 0.64 | 2.69 | 0.25 | 3.13 | 3.52 | 0.39 | 3.36 | 0.23 | 2.43 | -0.7 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 3.81 | 4.05 | 0.24 | 4.01 | 0.2 | 4.07 | 0.26 | 4.03 | 4.25 | 0.22 | 4.28 | 0.25 | 4.23 | 0.2 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 3.24 | 3.09 | -0.15 | 3.13 | -0.11 | 3.12 | -0.12 | 3.44 | 3.55 | 0.11 | 3.62 | 0.18 | 4.3 | 0.86 |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 2.94 | 3.53 | 0.59 | 3.56 | 0.62 | 3.28 | 0.34 | 3.86 | 3.85 | -0.01 | 3.78 | -0.08 | 3.9 | 0.04 |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 3.95 | 4.12 | 0.17 | 4.01 | 0.06 | 4.38 | 0.43 | 5.17 | 4.01 | -1.16 | 3.95 | -1.22 | 4.91 | -0.26 |
| Justin Nicolino | FLA | 3.65 | 5.42 | 1.77 | 5.01 | 1.36 | 4.5 | 0.85 | 3.46 | 5.4 | 1.94 | 4.93 | 1.47 | 4.43 | 0.97 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 3.45 | 3.97 | 0.52 | 4.14 | 0.69 | 3.75 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 3.28 | 1.78 | 3.52 | 2.02 | 2.15 | 0.65 |
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | 6.43 | 5.09 | -1.34 | 5.12 | -1.31 | 6.15 | -0.28 | |||||||
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 2.97 | 2.88 | -0.09 | 2.9 | -0.07 | 2.75 | -0.22 | 1.43 | 1.7 | 0.27 | 1.59 | 0.16 | 0.71 | -0.72 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 3.19 | 4.46 | 1.27 | 4.76 | 1.57 | 4.05 | 0.86 | 2.05 | 4.69 | 2.64 | 5 | 2.95 | 4.43 | 2.38 |
| Marco Gonzales | STL | ||||||||||||||
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 4.48 | 3.83 | -0.65 | 4.02 | -0.46 | 4.39 | -0.09 | 5.66 | 3.83 | -1.83 | 3.84 | -1.82 | 4.82 | -0.84 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 4.19 | 2.96 | -1.23 | 2.83 | -1.36 | 3.09 | -1.1 | 10.38 | 3.72 | -6.66 | 3.1 | -7.28 | 5.43 | -4.95 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 5.47 | 3.96 | -1.51 | 4.02 | -1.45 | 4.53 | -0.94 | 0 | 3.34 | 3.34 | 3.35 | 3.35 | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Roenis Elias | SEA | 4.2 | 4.17 | -0.03 | 4.29 | 0.09 | 4.38 | 0.18 | 3.52 | 4.64 | 1.12 | 5.01 | 1.49 | 3.12 | -0.4 |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 4.46 | 4 | -0.46 | 3.88 | -0.58 | 4.67 | 0.21 | 3.9 | 5.01 | 1.11 | 4.94 | 1.04 | 4.46 | 0.56 |
| Scott Feldman | HOU | 3.75 | 4.27 | 0.52 | 3.93 | 0.18 | 4.11 | 0.36 | 1.33 | 4.41 | 3.08 | 4.23 | 2.9 | 4.01 | 2.68 |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 4.29 | 4.45 | 0.16 | 4.31 | 0.02 | 4.65 | 0.36 | 4.29 | 4.45 | 0.16 | 4.31 | 0.02 | 4.65 | 0.36 |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 3.14 | 4.6 | 1.46 | 4.35 | 1.21 | 3.91 | 0.77 | 1.98 | 4.7 | 2.72 | 4.4 | 2.42 | 3.71 | 1.73 |
| Zack Greinke | LOS | 1.61 | 3.19 | 1.58 | 3.16 | 1.55 | 2.62 | 1.01 | 2.45 | 2.9 | 0.45 | 2.8 | 0.35 | 2.67 | 0.22 |
Anthony DeSclafani improved his K-BB rate to 19.5% in August, doubling his previous rate for the season. We’ve expressed some skepticism in the higher K% already, but perhaps more impressive was a 3.3 BB% that’s nearly 1/3 his season rate.
Chris Sale – The .313 BABIP is a bit high because the White Sox don’t play defense, but perhaps part of the issue is an exactly league average LOB% when his career rate is 5 points higher and you might expect more with a 28.2 K-BB%.
Gerrit Cole – Part of his success has been his ability to keep the ball in the yard and you would think that’s a function of his home park, but as mentioned, only two of his nine HRs have come on the road. While his career is still a fairly small sample, his 7.1 HR/FB is fairly in line with a single digit rate in each of his last two abbreviated seasons. If this is a real talent or something that pitching in Pittsburgh affords him, then expect an ERA closer to his FIP. He gets a tougher park tonight in Milwaukee.
Johnny Cueto – Perhaps the amazing thing, is after a below average month (or a really rough one for him), his BABIP and ERA are closer in line with the rest of his peripherals than they’ve been in years. His BABIP has been above .400 in three of his six Kansas City starts.
Jon Niese allowed five HRs and had a 20.8 HR/FB in August. He now has a 14.6 HR/FB for the season, a career high, which you figure should stabilize to somewhere around his career rate of 11.1%.
Michael Pineda has an elite 20.4 K-BB%, but a .339 BABIP, 68.2 LOB%, and 13.5 HR/FB. We’ll cover the obvious one first. It’s Yankee Stadium and the AL East where pop ups occasionally soar for HRs. That’s something he’s going to have to live with, so let’s focus on the FIP, which is still excellent. His indicators and profile (IFFB, Z-Contact, LD) are all average or better with a 1.78 GB% and a fairly normal 10.2 Hard-Soft%, so the high BABIP doesn’t make much sense and should improve along with the low strand rate.
Rick Porcello – Even if we account for the sharp increase in HRs this season, his FIP still does not match his ERA. Without great indicators or a prohibitive defense, he may not be able to do much about the BABIP and his 67.3 LOB% is likewise close enough to his 67.3% career mark. One would think a complete change in batted ball profile (1.23 GB/FB vs 1.81 career GB/FB) would alter these things more, but they have not. Only the strikeouts have increased, which is the one coveted result this experiment has seemingly produced.
Zack Greinke – The ERA still reflects that great run of BABIP and stranding runners he experiences in June and July, but August was really his best month in many ways with his ERA estimators dropping below three. His .236 BABIP and 86.0 LOB% for the season are still unsustainable. His .259 and 78.4% in August were both much more reasonable.
BABIP Chart (2015 LG AVG – .295 BABIP – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.9 Z-Contact%)
Last year, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. For example, if you have a pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team’s allowed (red), then you look for some factors that may support it may be onto something (check batted ball profile too).
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Harang | PHI | 0.314 | 0.291 | -0.023 | 12.7% | 90.2% |
| Andrew Cashner | SDG | 0.298 | 0.316 | 0.018 | 8.5% | 89.9% |
| Anthony DeSclafani | CIN | 0.288 | 0.307 | 0.019 | 9.7% | 87.2% |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 0.315 | 0.313 | -0.002 | 10.0% | 77.5% |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 0.293 | 0.286 | -0.007 | 14.4% | 87.6% |
| Cody Anderson | CLE | 0.292 | 0.244 | -0.048 | 14.0% | 89.4% |
| Cody Martin | OAK | 0.283 | 0.357 | 0.074 | 4.0% | 88.0% |
| Dan Haren | CHC | 0.294 | 0.254 | -0.04 | 11.6% | 92.2% |
| Drew Smyly | TAM | 0.284 | 0.282 | -0.002 | 10.3% | 89.8% |
| Manuel Banuelos | ATL | 0.307 | 0.270 | -0.037 | 4.2% | 91.1% |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.301 | 0.307 | 0.006 | 5.5% | 89.6% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.304 | 0.282 | -0.022 | 10.9% | 87.3% |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 0.307 | 0.271 | -0.036 | 11.1% | 83.9% |
| Johnny Cueto | KAN | 0.280 | 0.257 | -0.023 | 10.7% | 86.4% |
| Jon Niese | NYM | 0.282 | 0.295 | 0.013 | 5.7% | 92.6% |
| Justin Nicolino | FLA | 0.293 | 0.268 | -0.025 | 7.5% | 91.7% |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.300 | 0.258 | -0.042 | 12.4% | 84.2% |
| Kyle Kendrick | COL | 0.316 | 0.302 | -0.014 | 7.8% | 90.5% |
| Madison Bumgarner | SFO | 0.286 | 0.294 | 0.008 | 14.2% | 86.6% |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.282 | 0.234 | -0.048 | 10.4% | 81.0% |
| Marco Gonzales | STL | 0.293 | ||||
| Matt Shoemaker | ANA | 0.286 | 0.289 | 0.003 | 9.6% | 88.4% |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 0.299 | 0.339 | 0.04 | 10.6% | 84.9% |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.307 | 0.327 | 0.02 | 5.1% | 86.5% |
| Roenis Elias | SEA | 0.297 | 0.281 | -0.016 | 10.8% | 84.9% |
| Rubby de la Rosa | ARI | 0.294 | 0.285 | -0.009 | 5.8% | 83.5% |
| Scott Feldman | HOU | 0.280 | 0.292 | 0.012 | 6.3% | 91.0% |
| Tyler Duffey | MIN | 0.300 | 0.333 | 0.033 | 13.6% | 87.0% |
| Yovani Gallardo | TEX | 0.294 | 0.284 | -0.01 | 8.2% | 89.4% |
| Zack Greinke | LOS | 0.300 | 0.236 | -0.064 | 10.3% | 84.3% |
Joe Ross – The only reason we’re even talking about a .271 BABIP with a profile this solid (above average IFFB%, great Z-Contact%, 15.0 LD%) is because the Nationals can’t turn ground balls into outs. Theoretically, his BABIP should be fine if the defense cooperates.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Andrew Cashner (8) isn’t having his best season and we’ve seen real decline in a couple of areas that are concerning, but he’s generally been better at home and faces a poor road team without their DH in a great home environment at a reduced price. This is less true on FanDuel and Fantasy Aces though.
Joe Ross (4t) has an elite K-BB over 20%. He may not be that good, but he has been good and while the Cardinals are a good offense, they are still a bit banged up and not unbeatable. His cost is high end, but below the top five and even Verlander in Kansas City tonight.
Matt Shoemaker (7) may see a reduction in K% and Oakland has handled him well in four starts already this season, but none since he seemingly turned it around in June. He had a small glitch last month, but returned strong in his last start and is priced reasonably or better on most sites.
Value Tier Two
Madison Bumgarner (2) is the first of the studs to appear today and it’s simply a reflection of a lower price than Sale in most places. Although he may have the tougher offense to handle, he has the better overall run environment and has been pitching his best ball of the season of late. He has tonight’s 2nd projected K% with a sizable gap until #3.
Chris Sale (1) – Basically everything I just said about the guy directly above with a higher cost, but higher projected K% as well. He may have a small edge in opposing offense, but in a far worse run environment, though nothing he shouldn’t be able to handle.
Value Tier Three
Johnny Cueto (4t) – This is where we speculate a little because we assume a lot of people are going to be off him after struggling recently and facing a tough offense at home, but the underlying numbers aren’t that bad and we know he’s better than he’s been. I don’t mind using at all tonight and hoping it’s a contrarian move, but at this point maybe everyone is thinking the same thing.
Anthony DeSclafani – While I’m not a huge fan of his overall body of work or potential as a starting pitcher, he does come reasonably priced and could bump up to a league average strikeout rate against a high K offense.
Zack Greinke (3) is still a tad over-priced and taking on an offense that’s banged up, but about as good as it gets against RHP on the road. He’s pitching his best ball of the season right now though, I don’t care what the traditional box score and ERA says.
Drew Smyly – The stuff is still there to draw swings and misses even if it hasn’t shown in his K% since returning and he faces a cold offense that has struggled vs LHP at a below average cost, albeit in a difficult run environment.
Tyler Duffey is one of the few pitchers who shows a much better price on FanDuel, but when the win matters more there and you’re going against “(player-popup)Chris Sale”:/players/chris-sale-10976….? He’s flashed decent stuff aside from the control issue and is in a solid spot tonight.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Michael Pineda could return some value if healthy because we know he’s better than recent results, which have slightly reduced his cost, but it’s a big risk right now.
Gerrit Cole (6) is a very good pitcher facing a very bad offense, but in a difficult environment. He’s basically price for what we’d expect out of him. He has an above average K%, but has only hit 10 strikeouts in a start once this season and the same with nine.
Jon Niese has been roughed up of late and is a slightly below average pitcher at an average or better price, facing a weak offense in a good park.
Rick Porcello is very cheap on DraftKings.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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