Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, April 10th
We now have a week full of stats for the 2017 season and almost every pitcher has started one game. One would think it would be pretty easy to simply plug in this season’s stats and carry on at this point, but turns out that not everything fits so perfectly right away. We’re still using 2016 stats in a few instances:
1 – Baseball Savant does not yet have updated leaderboards for Statcast.
2 – Baseball Prospectus takes a few weeks to calculate DRA for the new season.
3 – Team defense.
Otherwise, everything else (excluding Park Factors, which have not been updated by Seamheads yet either) including 2017 statistics. Please consider sample size for the next couple of weeks.
All 20 starters are listed for today. Only the five game night slate will be covered in the notes. And yes, it is basically all about Jacob deGrom, but the short slate gives us an opportunity to dig into some other arms as well, even if you’re not considering using them on this particular occasion.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2016 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | -5.3 | 4.25 | 6.01 | 44.4% | 1.02 | 4.31 | 3.45 | WAS | 135 | 112 | 121 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | -1.4 | 4.46 | 4.53 | 50.0% | 1.02 | 5.12 | 4.07 | NYY | 125 | 114 | |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 2.3 | 3.99 | 5.88 | 50.2% | 1.03 | 3.4 | 5.31 | CHC | 213 | 97 | |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 0.4 | 4.61 | 5.56 | 42.0% | 0.95 | 5.25 | 1.36 | PIT | 126 | -16 | 78 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 4.2 | 3.89 | 5.43 | 57.2% | 0.9 | 3.29 | 4.64 | SEA | 63 | 56 | |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 4.1 | 2.97 | 6.91 | 41.8% | 1.01 | 3.81 | 2.64 | DET | 148 | 212 | 131 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 4.9 | 3.98 | 5.77 | 35.6% | 1.04 | 4.85 | 6.03 | OAK | 102 | 106 | 106 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 1.3 | 3.26 | 6.28 | 45.4% | 1.02 | 3.66 | 2.01 | PHI | 140 | 121 | 114 |
| James Paxton | SEA | -4.3 | 3.85 | 5.7 | 48.2% | 0.9 | 3.45 | 3.43 | HOU | 92 | 104 | |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 1.9 | 3.93 | 6.07 | 40.4% | 1.02 | 4.06 | 3.08 | NYM | 43 | 64 | |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | -8.3 | 4.06 | 5.53 | 36.6% | 1.04 | 4.11 | 4.39 | KAN | 92 | 80 | |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 9.1 | 3.39 | 6.38 | 47.8% | 1.03 | 3.36 | 3.08 | LOS | 98 | 79 | 123 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | -5.1 | 3.58 | 6.67 | 34.1% | 1.01 | 3.67 | 2.11 | BOS | 112 | 96 | 102 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 4.8 | 4.47 | 5.79 | 38.9% | 0.89 | 4.3 | 4.74 | ARI | 103 | 128 | |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 0.8 | 3.23 | 5.66 | 47.3% | 1.02 | 3.42 | 1.34 | TAM | 118 | 124 | |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | -6.1 | 3.86 | 5.64 | 41.0% | 0.89 | 4.3 | 2.81 | SFO | 103 | 102 | |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 1.1 | 4.24 | 6.07 | 48.5% | 1.02 | 4.18 | 3.3 | STL | 73 | 70 | |
| Trevor Cahill | SDG | -5.9 | 3.71 | 4.6 | 58.8% | 1.37 | 3.74 | 3.67 | COL | 59 | 77 | 80 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | -3.1 | 4.56 | 5.86 | 57.3% | 1.37 | 4.33 | 2.89 | SDG | 53 | 107 | 76 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | -2.8 | 4.46 | 4.03 | 47.6% | 0.95 | 5.11 | CIN | 114 | 100 | 109 |
Adam Wainwright was surprisingly excellent in his first start against the Cubs, throwing just 82 pitches, but striking out six of 21 batters, allowing hard contact on just three batted balls and inducing weak contact on five of 13. The Washington bats have strong, but could be without sparkplug Trea Turner, who left Saturday’s game with a hamstring issue.
Alex Wood threw two innings out of the pen last week and gets his first start tonight against the Cubs at Wrigley. After striking out just 12 of his first 100 batters last season, he struck out 50 of the next 142 before suffering two separate elbow injuries that kept him out until September, when he came back to make four single inning bullpen appearances. We like the second guy, even if his GB rate dropped 17 points from the first month to the second. The Cubs are a difficult offense to face to be sure, but temperatures are expected to be around 50 degrees and Kevin’s forecast calls for a bit of a wind blowing out to RF, which should affect him less as a LHP.
Brandon Finnegan dominated the Phillies, who were supposed to be better against LHP this year, in his first start. He struck out nine of 23 batters, allowing only two base runners. Twelve of his 88 pitches were swung on and missed with nine of his 13 batted balls on the ground and only three hit hard. Although all velocity is up this year due to new measurement methods, he was up 1.5 miles with the norm being about half of that so far. While not entirely aboard this train after one start, it’s nice to see any improvement from his 8.3 K-BB% last year. Twenty-four of Pittsburgh’s 31 PAs against LHP this season have come against Chris Sale, which implores the mention of sample size again.
Jacob deGrom struck out six of 21 Braves, allowing just three base runners in his first start. Ten of 14 batted balls were on the ground and only one was contacted hard, while his velocity was up over a mile per hour. The caveat was that his velocity dropped off from regularly hitting 95 and above through his first two innings to mostly 94 mph and then 93 over his last few innings. The Phillies have some impressive offensive numbers so far, but one-third of their MLB third best 35 runs this year came in one inning against Jeremy Guthrie. They’ve struck out in 26.2% of PAs so far and still have rarely hit the ball hard.
Jerad Eickhoff allowed just eight HRs in his first 86 career innings in Philadelphia. Over his last 42 innings at home last year, he allowed 12. That’s not normally how the regression monkey works, but it’s fairly easy to say that’s suppression that nobody expected to continue. Over those 42 innings, LHBs have a 20.6 HR/FB with a 34.3 Hard% against him. He’s allowed 15 extra-base hits to 93 total LHBs with just a 26.1 GB%. While he pitched well in his first start, the only legitimate LHB he saw (Joey Votto) homered.
Jon Lester was down nearly a mile per hour in his first start, which means he was probably down more like a mile and a half. There was some concern about his velocity early this spring as well. He’s not really a guy who relies on high velocity though, and it certainly didn’t stop him from striking out seven Cardinals in his first start (a team that really struggles against LHP in recent seasons for some reason), but he did allow nine base runners on a 46.7 Hard%. The Dodgers should be better against LHP this season, though that hasn’t been the case so far in their MLB second most PAs (114) against southpaws already this season. They’ve struck out a quarter of the time.
Tyler Glasnow landed at #26 on the Fangaphs top 100 minor league prospects list last month. There is some question about whether he eventually lands in the bullpen because he has issues finding the plate and no third pitch. However, the two pitches he does have (fastball & curveball) are considered above average offerings already and the latter of those should keep LHBs honest. He shouldn’t find too many difficult spots in this Cincinnati offense in his favorable home park.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Tanner Roark (.269 – 79.5% – 9.4 in 2016) is a soft contact generator, who normally doesn’t strike out batters, though he nabbed six Marlins in his first start. That’s basically the upside for him. He exceeded a 20% strikeout rate in just one-third of his 33 starts last season, while his weak contact magic from the first half of last season became more good than great in the second half. Sure, he could always spike one of those starts, it happened one out of every three last year, but betting on him at a cost above $8K against a good St Louis offense vs RHP will not very often pay dividends beyond the price tag.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Jerad Eickhoff allowed just eight HRs in his first 86 career innings in Philadelphia. Over his last 42 innings at home last year, he allowed 12. That’s not normally how the regression monkey works, but it’s fairly easy to say that’s suppression that nobody expected to continue. Over those 42 innings, LHBs have a 20.6 HR/FB with a 34.3 Hard% against him. He’s allowed 15 extra-base hits to 93 total LHBs with just a 26.1 GB%. While he pitched well in his first start, the only legitimate LHB he saw (Joey Votto) homered. Stack Mets LHBs?
Trevor Cahill and Tyler Chatwood are ground ball pitchers, which should show some benefit in Coors, but these are not the pitchers DFS players should be considering today.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 18.9% | 6.8% | Road | 18.1% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 9.5% |
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 15.9% | 6.4% | Road | 10.0% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 4.6% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 19.4% | 7.4% | Road | 26.0% | 8.4% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | L2 Years | 20.9% | 11.1% | Road | 20.0% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 39.1% | 4.4% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Years | 18.1% | 7.7% | Road | 25.0% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 8.0% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 28.8% | 4.9% | Road | 23.9% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 4.2% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 23.4% | 7.9% | Home | 22.2% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 21.7% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 25.8% | 5.4% | Road | 17.6% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 4.8% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 21.4% | 6.6% | Home | 23.1% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 4.4% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 21.4% | 5.4% | Home | 22.1% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 24.0% | 4.0% |
| Jharel Cotton | Athletics | L2 Years | 20.2% | 4.5% | Road | 19.2% | 4.3% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 9.1% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 24.9% | 6.1% | Home | 25.4% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 29.2% | 8.3% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 25.8% | 6.2% | Home | 30.0% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 7.7% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 19.9% | 8.5% | Home | 22.4% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 7.4% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 25.6% | 5.2% | Home | 27.7% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 21.7% | 6.0% | Road | 20.0% | 5.5% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 3.9% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 18.4% | 7.5% | Home | 21.9% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 8.3% |
| Trevor Cahill | Padres | L2 Years | 21.9% | 10.9% | Road | 23.2% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 11.5% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 17.6% | 10.3% | Home | 16.0% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 21.7% | 4.4% |
| Tyler Glasnow | Pirates | L2 Years | 22.9% | 12.4% | Home | 20.4% | 10.2% | L14 Days |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | Home | 18.8% | 11.6% | RH | 23.8% | 10.7% | L7Days | 23.9% | 11.1% |
| Yankees | Home | RH | 18.2% | 9.9% | L7Days | 18.9% | 11.3% | ||
| Cubs | Home | LH | 10.9% | 10.9% | L7Days | 22.0% | 9.6% | ||
| Pirates | Home | 9.4% | 9.4% | LH | 29.0% | 3.2% | L7Days | 14.2% | 7.1% |
| Mariners | Home | RH | 24.2% | 7.8% | L7Days | 23.5% | 8.1% | ||
| Tigers | Home | 27.5% | 13.8% | LH | 14.9% | 12.8% | L7Days | 23.9% | 14.7% |
| Athletics | Road | 22.6% | 8.7% | RH | 23.8% | 8.5% | L7Days | 23.0% | 9.0% |
| Phillies | Home | 22.3% | 11.6% | RH | 25.5% | 11.5% | L7Days | 26.2% | 11.4% |
| Astros | Road | LH | 15.6% | 8.6% | L7Days | 17.5% | 8.6% | ||
| Mets | Road | RH | 26.3% | 6.6% | L7Days | 22.2% | 8.6% | ||
| Royals | Home | RH | 24.4% | 6.5% | L7Days | 23.1% | 7.6% | ||
| Dodgers | Road | 22.6% | 9.6% | LH | 25.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 19.9% | 12.0% |
| Red Sox | Road | 13.8% | 9.5% | RH | 18.4% | 8.1% | L7Days | 16.8% | 9.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | LH | 23.9% | 6.0% | L7Days | 23.1% | 7.8% | ||
| Rays | Road | RH | 25.4% | 9.8% | L7Days | 24.4% | 11.8% | ||
| Giants | Home | RH | 22.4% | 6.7% | L7Days | 21.0% | 8.5% | ||
| Cardinals | Road | RH | 22.3% | 13.9% | L7Days | 22.6% | 13.3% | ||
| Rockies | Home | 28.2% | 2.9% | RH | 21.8% | 10.6% | L7Days | 22.4% | 8.3% |
| Padres | Road | 24.1% | 5.8% | RH | 18.7% | 9.7% | L7Days | 20.4% | 8.8% |
| Reds | Road | 17.9% | 7.1% | RH | 18.6% | 5.7% | L7Days | 18.5% | 6.0% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 29.9% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 2017 | 23.1% | 0.0% | -15.4% | Road | 31.1% | 18.6% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 0.0% | -15.4% |
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 32.7% | 19.4% | 16.4% | 2017 | 47.1% | 12.5% | 35.3% | Road | 24.1% | 22.2% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 47.1% | 12.5% | 35.3% |
| Alex Wood | Dodgers | L2 Years | 27.8% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 2017 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | 29.6% | 11.5% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | L2 Years | 34.6% | 15.8% | 17.2% | 2017 | 23.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Road | 35.5% | 12.2% | 18.4% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Years | 30.0% | 14.6% | 9.0% | 2017 | 26.3% | 11.1% | 5.2% | Road | 25.0% | 25.0% | 18.7% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 11.1% | 5.2% |
| Chris Sale | Red Sox | L2 Years | 28.8% | 12.0% | 10.0% | 2017 | 37.5% | 0.0% | 18.7% | Road | 30.0% | 4.8% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 37.5% | 0.0% | 18.7% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 35.9% | 14.4% | 19.3% | 2017 | 38.5% | 0.0% | 30.8% | Home | 40.2% | 10.0% | 24.6% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 0.0% | 30.8% |
| Jacob deGrom | Mets | L2 Years | 28.4% | 10.2% | 9.2% | 2017 | 7.1% | 0.0% | -21.5% | Road | 34.2% | 11.9% | 17.5% | L14 Days | 7.1% | 0.0% | -21.5% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 31.8% | 8.8% | 16.1% | 2017 | 29.4% | 0.0% | 5.9% | Home | 32.9% | 7.0% | 20.0% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 0.0% | 5.9% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 32.0% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 2017 | 38.9% | 14.3% | 27.8% | Home | 28.8% | 14.6% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 38.9% | 14.3% | 27.8% |
| Jharel Cotton | Athletics | L2 Years | 27.7% | 8.9% | 5.9% | 2017 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 6.2% | Road | 25.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 6.2% |
| Jon Lester | Cubs | L2 Years | 28.1% | 11.0% | 8.1% | 2017 | 46.7% | 0.0% | 33.4% | Home | 28.3% | 10.7% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 46.7% | 0.0% | 33.4% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 26.6% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 2017 | 28.6% | 0.0% | 14.3% | Home | 30.5% | 12.2% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Matt Moore | Giants | L2 Years | 30.8% | 10.4% | 13.9% | 2017 | 22.7% | 0.0% | 9.1% | Home | 31.0% | 9.6% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 0.0% | 9.1% |
| Michael Pineda | Yankees | L2 Years | 31.7% | 16.5% | 14.3% | 2017 | 33.3% | 33.3% | 25.0% | Home | 35.2% | 23.3% | 19.7% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 33.3% | 25.0% |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 29.9% | 15.1% | 11.4% | 2017 | 50.0% | 16.7% | 38.9% | Road | 30.0% | 20.0% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 16.7% | 38.9% |
| Tanner Roark | Nationals | L2 Years | 25.1% | 11.5% | 2.5% | 2017 | 28.6% | 0.0% | 7.2% | Home | 25.5% | 6.9% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 0.0% | 7.2% |
| Trevor Cahill | Padres | L2 Years | 31.3% | 18.2% | 10.4% | 2017 | 40.0% | 20.0% | 26.7% | Road | 39.7% | 20.8% | 20.7% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 20.0% | 26.7% |
| Tyler Chatwood | Rockies | L2 Years | 29.7% | 13.6% | 10.2% | 2017 | 35.3% | 50.0% | 0.0% | Home | 33.5% | 19.6% | 18.7% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Glasnow | Pirates | L2 Years | 27.7% | 10.0% | 6.2% | 2017 | Home | 15.6% | 0.0% | -6.3% | L14 Days |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | Home | 33.3% | 19.4% | 12.8% | RH | 32.9% | 15.5% | 15.8% | L7Days | 32.0% | 16.9% | 14.3% |
| Yankees | Home | RH | 31.7% | 10.3% | 11.0% | L7Days | 30.9% | 9.7% | 10.3% | |||
| Cubs | Home | LH | 28.6% | 6.7% | 0.0% | L7Days | 28.3% | 7.5% | 6.0% | |||
| Pirates | Home | 30.1% | 9.4% | 9.7% | LH | 38.1% | 0.0% | 19.0% | L7Days | 32.2% | 5.5% | 11.1% |
| Mariners | Home | RH | 19.3% | 8.6% | -1.8% | L7Days | 18.9% | 7.8% | -2.8% | |||
| Tigers | Home | 57.1% | 21.1% | 46.0% | LH | 45.5% | 33.3% | 36.4% | L7Days | 46.0% | 18.2% | 35.2% |
| Athletics | Road | 42.9% | 12.5% | 27.3% | RH | 37.3% | 15.9% | 19.0% | L7Days | 36.1% | 14.5% | 17.5% |
| Phillies | Home | 27.5% | 12.1% | 8.7% | RH | 25.0% | 14.0% | 6.7% | L7Days | 28.7% | 14.5% | 10.5% |
| Astros | Road | LH | 24.2% | 12.9% | 6.3% | L7Days | 23.6% | 17.5% | 0.5% | |||
| Mets | Road | RH | 27.5% | 10.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 28.3% | 9.7% | 11.2% | |||
| Royals | Home | RH | 29.0% | 23.7% | 5.3% | L7Days | 26.8% | 21.3% | 0.0% | |||
| Dodgers | Road | 28.2% | 9.5% | 5.1% | LH | 33.3% | 9.1% | 12.0% | L7Days | 36.5% | 16.4% | 18.5% |
| Red Sox | Road | 51.2% | 3.2% | 33.8% | RH | 52.6% | 6.5% | 35.1% | L7Days | 51.8% | 6.8% | 36.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | LH | 40.4% | 5.9% | 23.4% | L7Days | 38.6% | 13.1% | 26.6% | |||
| Rays | Road | RH | 31.8% | 16.2% | 12.9% | L7Days | 30.8% | 15.2% | 8.1% | |||
| Giants | Home | RH | 31.6% | 11.1% | 16.2% | L7Days | 32.5% | 14.8% | 16.8% | |||
| Cardinals | Road | RH | 18.1% | 9.1% | -4.8% | L7Days | 21.5% | 6.1% | 1.4% | |||
| Rockies | Home | 26.8% | 21.7% | 4.3% | RH | 25.2% | 11.1% | 4.2% | L7Days | 27.6% | 15.7% | 5.2% |
| Padres | Road | 31.3% | 9.3% | 11.5% | RH | 27.3% | 12.8% | 5.5% | L7Days | 27.4% | 10.5% | 6.3% |
| Reds | Road | 25.6% | 15.6% | -1.2% | RH | 27.1% | 10.3% | 6.3% | L7Days | 29.4% | 14.5% | 9.4% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 28.6% | 12.2% | 2.34 | 28.6% | 12.2% | 2.34 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 18.2% | 12.2% | 1.49 | 18.2% | 12.2% | 1.49 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 14.3% | 13.6% | 1.05 | 14.3% | 13.6% | 1.05 |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 39.1% | 13.6% | 2.88 | 39.1% | 13.6% | 2.88 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 16.0% | 12.2% | 1.31 | 16.0% | 12.2% | 1.31 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 29.2% | 12.5% | 2.34 | 29.2% | 12.5% | 2.34 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 21.7% | 12.6% | 1.72 | 21.7% | 12.6% | 1.72 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 28.6% | 9.5% | 3.01 | 28.6% | 9.5% | 3.01 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 21.7% | 18.0% | 1.21 | 21.7% | 18.0% | 1.21 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 24.0% | 8.8% | 2.73 | 24.0% | 8.8% | 2.73 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 18.2% | 7.1% | 2.56 | 18.2% | 7.1% | 2.56 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 29.2% | 10.8% | 2.70 | 29.2% | 10.8% | 2.70 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 38.5% | 13.6% | 2.83 | 38.5% | 13.6% | 2.83 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 11.1% | 10.1% | 1.10 | 11.1% | 10.1% | 1.10 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 33.3% | 15.5% | 2.15 | 33.3% | 15.5% | 2.15 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 26.9% | 11.7% | 2.30 | 26.9% | 11.7% | 2.30 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 25.0% | 10.3% | 2.43 | 25.0% | 10.3% | 2.43 |
| Trevor Cahill | SDG | 26.9% | 14.1% | 1.91 | 26.9% | 14.1% | 1.91 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 21.7% | 8.5% | 2.55 | 21.7% | 8.5% | 2.55 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT |
Eleven of today’s 20 overall pitchers exceeded a 12 SwStr% in their first start of the season. Is this going to be like the HR thing last year? Probably not. Consider we’re in the top of rotations today, so a little more swing and miss stuff is expected, but these are not all names you’d expect to remain in this territory much longer.
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.34 ERA – 4.30 SIERA – 4.24 xFIP – 4.30 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 3.6 | 3.45 | -0.15 | 3.75 | 0.15 | 1.84 | -1.76 | 4.78 | 1.18 | 3.6 | 3.45 | -0.15 | 3.75 | 0.15 | 1.84 | -1.76 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 1.59 | 4.04 | 2.45 | 4.4 | 2.81 | 4.45 | 2.86 | 5.04 | 3.45 | 1.59 | 4.07 | 2.48 | 4.4 | 2.81 | 4.45 | 2.86 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 0 | 5.31 | 5.31 | 5.13 | 5.13 | 3.54 | 3.54 | 3.43 | 3.43 | 0 | 5.31 | 5.31 | 5.13 | 5.13 | 3.54 | 3.54 |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 0 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.58 | 1.58 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 4.84 | 4.84 | 0 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.58 | 1.58 | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 3 | 4.64 | 1.64 | 5.09 | 2.09 | 4.87 | 1.87 | 3.06 | 0.06 | 3 | 4.64 | 1.64 | 5.09 | 2.09 | 4.87 | 1.87 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 0 | 2.64 | 2.64 | 2.83 | 2.83 | 1.47 | 1.47 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 0 | 2.64 | 2.64 | 2.83 | 2.83 | 1.47 | 1.47 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 5.4 | 6.03 | 0.63 | 6.26 | 0.86 | 4.04 | -1.36 | 4.09 | -1.31 | 5.4 | 6.03 | 0.63 | 6.26 | 0.86 | 4.04 | -1.36 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0 | 2.01 | 2.01 | 2.33 | 2.33 | 1.54 | 1.54 | 3.86 | 3.86 | 0 | 2.01 | 2.01 | 2.33 | 2.33 | 1.54 | 1.54 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 0 | 3.43 | 3.43 | 3.46 | 3.46 | 1.87 | 1.87 | 3.51 | 3.51 | 0 | 3.43 | 3.43 | 3.46 | 3.46 | 1.87 | 1.87 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 2.7 | 3.06 | 0.36 | 3.36 | 0.66 | 3.64 | 0.94 | 3.90 | 1.20 | 2.7 | 3.08 | 0.38 | 3.36 | 0.66 | 3.64 | 0.94 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 10.38 | 4.37 | -6.01 | 4.04 | -6.34 | 2.58 | -7.8 | 4.21 | -6.17 | 10.38 | 4.39 | -5.99 | 4.04 | -6.34 | 2.58 | -7.8 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 1.8 | 3.08 | 1.28 | 3.03 | 1.23 | 1.44 | -0.36 | 3.23 | 1.43 | 1.8 | 3.08 | 1.28 | 3.03 | 1.23 | 1.44 | -0.36 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 2.84 | 2.1 | -0.74 | 2.08 | -0.76 | 0.83 | -2.01 | 2.75 | -0.09 | 2.84 | 2.11 | -0.73 | 2.08 | -0.76 | 0.83 | -2.01 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 5.06 | 4.73 | -0.33 | 5.12 | 0.06 | 3.04 | -2.02 | 4.98 | -0.08 | 5.06 | 4.74 | -0.32 | 5.12 | 0.06 | 3.04 | -2.02 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 9.82 | 1.29 | -8.53 | 1.07 | -8.75 | 3.31 | -6.51 | 3.49 | -6.33 | 9.82 | 1.34 | -8.48 | 1.07 | -8.75 | 3.31 | -6.51 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 6 | 2.81 | -3.19 | 2.79 | -3.21 | 3.37 | -2.63 | 4.13 | -1.87 | 6 | 2.81 | -3.19 | 2.79 | -3.21 | 3.37 | -2.63 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 3 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 3.04 | 0.04 | 3.88 | 0.88 | 3 | 3.3 | 0.3 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 3.04 | 0.04 |
| Trevor Cahill | SDG | 3.18 | 3.64 | 0.46 | 4.09 | 0.91 | 4.98 | 1.8 | 3.77 | 0.59 | 3.18 | 3.67 | 0.49 | 4.09 | 0.91 | 4.98 | 1.8 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 6 | 2.89 | -3.11 | 2.93 | -3.07 | 6.21 | 0.21 | 4.29 | -1.71 | 6 | 2.89 | -3.11 | 2.93 | -3.07 | 6.21 | 0.21 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 4.09 |
Remember that DRA is still from last year at this point.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.2 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 0.264 | 0.231 | -0.033 | 25.0% | 0.25 | 16.7% | 84.6% | 87.3 | 6.30% | 4.10% | 557 |
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 0.255 | 0.188 | -0.067 | 37.5% | 0.125 | 0.0% | 100.0% | 90.5 | 9.70% | 6.70% | 72 |
| Alex Wood | LOS | 0.241 | 0.000 | -0.241 | 40.0% | 0.2 | 50.0% | 87.5% | 89.4 | 5.00% | 2.70% | 141 |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 0.250 | 0.077 | -0.173 | 69.2% | 0.077 | 0.0% | 86.4% | 88.8 | 7.90% | 4.90% | 454 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 0.221 | 0.222 | 0.001 | 42.1% | 0.105 | 0.0% | 79.3% | 88.9 | 5.30% | 2.80% | 38 |
| Chris Sale | BOS | 0.245 | 0.188 | -0.057 | 37.5% | 0.25 | 0.0% | 89.2% | 89.2 | 5.70% | 3.40% | 542 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 0.314 | 0.231 | -0.083 | 38.5% | 0.077 | 14.3% | 69.7% | 89.9 | 8.00% | 4.90% | 498 |
| Jacob deGrom | NYM | 0.311 | 0.143 | -0.168 | 71.4% | 0.071 | 0.0% | 77.8% | 88.7 | 6.50% | 4.00% | 371 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 0.279 | 0.118 | -0.161 | 41.2% | 0.235 | 33.3% | 71.4% | 91 | 3.80% | 2.50% | 338 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.363 | 0.235 | -0.128 | 50.0% | 0.111 | 0.0% | 91.7% | 89.5 | 6.20% | 3.90% | 513 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 0.275 | 0.500 | 0.225 | 31.3% | 0.438 | 0.0% | 80.8% | 88.9 | 5.20% | 3.60% | 77 |
| Jon Lester | CHC | 0.267 | 0.467 | 0.2 | 33.3% | 0.333 | 0.0% | 90.5% | 87.8 | 4.60% | 2.60% | 452 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.310 | 0.429 | 0.119 | 35.7% | 0.286 | 0.0% | 77.4% | 88.4 | 7.80% | 4.50% | 528 |
| Matt Moore | SFO | 0.331 | 0.364 | 0.033 | 54.5% | 0.136 | 0.0% | 80.6% | 89.2 | 7.10% | 4.30% | 504 |
| Michael Pineda | NYY | 0.330 | 0.636 | 0.306 | 66.7% | 0.083 | 0.0% | 77.8% | 90.3 | 7.30% | 4.20% | 439 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 0.299 | 0.353 | 0.054 | 38.9% | 0.278 | 16.7% | 86.1% | 90 | 8.40% | 5.20% | 358 |
| Tanner Roark | WAS | 0.353 | 0.214 | -0.139 | 61.5% | 0.077 | 0.0% | 93.6% | 87.8 | 6.00% | 3.60% | 518 |
| Trevor Cahill | SDG | 0.262 | 0.286 | 0.024 | 46.7% | 0.2 | 0.0% | 84.0% | 89.4 | 5.70% | 2.80% | 140 |
| Tyler Chatwood | COL | 0.308 | 0.333 | 0.025 | 58.8% | 0.176 | 0.0% | 96.8% | 87.9 | 4.40% | 2.70% | 409 |
| Tyler Glasnow | PIT | 0.333 | 86.6 | 4.40% | 1.90% | 45 |
Statcast is still from last year. There’s not much we can benefit from here after just one start in other numbers.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Jacob deGrom (1) is a no-brainer tonight and doesn’t require any sleuth work analysis on my part. The problem is that everyone else knows it too, so you’re probably looking for reasons to fade. The obvious one would be that weird stuff happens in baseball every day, but we could use that cop out and pick names out of a hat instead of writing any of this stuff on any given day. Your outs here might be the drop off in velocity in his first start and the Phillies potentially being better offensively this year than people expect, though there was really nowhere to go from the last few seasons, but up. A $9.3K price tag on DraftKings ($2K less than Lester) is hard to resist.
Value Tier Two
Jon Lester (2) is facing an offense that struggled against RHP last year and have so far again this year in a larger sample size than most teams so far. This is a pitcher who looked both good and bad in his first start. We’ll table velocity concerns for the short slate as he wasn’t an extremely hard thrower to start off with anyway, but it still may be tough to find a way from deGrom to he on DraftKIngs. Check ownership projections later for FanDuel, where they’re distanced by only $100.
Value Tier Three
Adam Wainwright – You need pitching options today and he’s not the worst. His first start was strong. The Nationals could have a stronger offense against RHP. He’s likely an average arm at an average price. It’s not exciting, but could work out better than most arms tonight.
Alex Wood is facing a tough lineup at Wrigley, but early season conditions should favor LH pitching tonight. The guy we saw in May last year could be a great choice, where if April’s version of the pitcher shows up, owners will have to rely on the defense much more.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Brandon Finnegan has always had upside and might have the most of any $7-8K ranged pitcher tonight. He also may have the most blowup potential and a patient, predominantly RH lineup could be a disaster for him, though he’s at least pitching in a park which crushes RH power.
Tyler Glasnow has strikeout upside, but significant control issues as well. Cincinnati is certainly the type of team to speculate on him against. Votto is going to take his free pass(es), but there’s not much to be concerned about otherwise. Strangely, it’s the two pitcher site where I’d have more difficulty rostering him. I’d surely at least consider pairing him with a Coors stack for just $4.4K on FanDuel tonight.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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