Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, April 17th
DRA has been updated on the Baseball Prospectus website for the current season and we also have new Statcast numbers as well. There’s a little bit of trickery involved in the latter as the option to select 2017 is not available on the Baseball Savant leaderboard yet, but changing 2016 to 2017 in the URL achieves the desired results. As with all April numbers, we want to be extremely cautious with the sample sizes. We’re seeing some early numbers that certainly won’t be there in another month or two. We’re only waiting for team defense for the new season at this point.
This week brings our first two full night slates on Tuesday and Friday, but Monday brings us a cozy little nine game slate first. It’s not the top of the rotation, but the middle of a few who aren’t so bad and at least a few interesting arms to talk about.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 1.9 | 4.61 | 5.12 | 29.3% | 0.93 | 5.15 | 4.34 | OAK | 113 | 124 | 105 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | -4.3 | 4.73 | 5.43 | 32.3% | 0.89 | 4.36 | 4.6 | FLA | 98 | 104 | 99 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 2.3 | 4.5 | 4.85 | 36.4% | 0.89 | 4.4 | 4.42 | ARI | 52 | 116 | 48 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 4.2 | 3.87 | 5.42 | 56.8% | 0.94 | 3.58 | 4.04 | ANA | 52 | 105 | 60 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | -7.2 | 4.48 | 5.34 | 39.0% | 0.96 | 4.67 | 3.83 | CHC | 82 | 73 | 81 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 5.4 | 3.54 | 5.86 | 45.4% | 1.04 | 3.73 | 2.5 | MIN | 111 | 103 | 96 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 3.3 | 4.85 | 5.65 | 39.1% | 1.01 | 5.61 | 4.7 | NYY | 142 | 57 | 143 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | -2.8 | 4.07 | 5.64 | 51.5% | 0.98 | 3.67 | 4.41 | STL | 75 | 78 | 74 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | -0.9 | 3.78 | 5.89 | 57.8% | 1 | 3.45 | 5.56 | SDG | 69 | 60 | 79 |
| Jered Weaver | SDG | -5.9 | 5.14 | 5.92 | 31.8% | 1 | 5.94 | 4.52 | ATL | 129 | 100 | 117 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 6.5 | 3.89 | 5.72 | 42.6% | 0.94 | 4.6 | 3.93 | HOU | 104 | 130 | 129 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | -8.3 | 4.06 | 5.74 | 37.6% | 0.93 | 4.33 | 4.28 | TEX | 101 | 107 | 97 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 9.1 | 3.8 | 6.54 | 44.1% | 0.96 | 3.85 | 2.86 | MIL | 122 | 96 | 120 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 0.8 | 2.85 | 4.2 | 36.4% | 1.01 | 3.58 | 2.85 | CHW | 66 | 110 | 65 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | -5.8 | 4.33 | 5.97 | 51.6% | 1.04 | 4.06 | 4.18 | CLE | 88 | 122 | 123 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | -5.3 | 4.12 | 5.62 | 44.8% | 0.98 | 3.5 | 4.78 | PIT | 80 | 102 | 90 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | -6.1 | 3.79 | 5.51 | 44.4% | 0.89 | 3.41 | 4.29 | LOS | 140 | 82 | 90 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 2.8 | 4.77 | 5.63 | 44.3% | 0.89 | 4.86 | 5.61 | SEA | 142 | 93 | 138 |
Brandon McCarthy has been merely okay in his first couple of starts, but finding success due to a low BABIP with the Dodger defense putting on an early season charade of the 2016 Cubs. There’s really nothing special concerning him here, but the Diamondbacks have struck out in a quarter of their plate appearances so far this season. Their predominantly RH lineup generally struggles against RHP on the road and Dodger Stadium is only likely to enhance this feature as one of the most negative overall run environments in the league.
Charlie Morton has been one of two elite ground ball generators on the board today. This year, in two starts against the Mariners, he has only been inducing them at a league average rate, but he does have the lowest aEV on the board so far. He came out throwing harder in his first start and then picked up another mph in his second start, sitting at nearly 96 mph. As a consequence, he’s missing more bats than he traditionally has. As a consequence, he’s more DFS relevant because we do love a good bat missing spike. While Houston is power friendly, it’s really not that much so and it was actually the most negative run environment in baseball last year according to ESPN (0.808). The Angels are likely to strike out more often than they did last year and have done so thus far, but still not lot.
Danny Salazar has a 0.67 DRA. I thought that was some kind of super early season mistake type outlier thing in their secret formula that could safely be ignored. He has faced 49 batters and struck 20 of them out! He’s walked six as well because he is who he is, but only 29 batters have not struck out against him and seven of them have scored. No, he’s not going to continue at this pace, but it’s interesting to note that he’s thrown his changeup 40% of the time in each of his first two starts, popping a whiff just over 20% of the time with it. Minnesota is unexpectedly the most hitter friendly environment in play tonight (and yes I did double check that), while the Twins have been over-achieving a bit offensively, but it’s not like you should actually fear this matchup.
Jharel Cotton shut out the Royals for seven innings after a rough box score in his first start. I say box score because it was mentioned on twitter (though I can’t find the link) that none of the four run scoring hits in that start had an exit velocity of more than 75 mph. In fact, he’s one of two pitchers on the slate who hasn’t allowed a single Barrel yet. The changeup is already considered one of the best in baseball. He’s missed bats at a slightly above average rate and a more dominant one in the minors. He’s been a fly ball pitcher, but that’s usually an asset in Oakland, where he faces an average Texas offense tonight.
John Lackey has only looked dominant through two starts after I called for him to be the guy who took a step back this year. Strangely, after sitting at 91 mph for his entire career and I mean every single season, the velocity has dropped about a mile per hour this year. He’s compensated by throwing almost no sinkers and is using his cutter 32.5% of the time along with an increase in four-seamers. He’s also allowed very little hard contact so far, another change from last year. The Brewers have shown power (20.5 HR/FB vs RHP), but strike out a ton (26.7% vs RHP).
Jordan Montgomery was merely the 14th rated prospect in an admittedly deep system by Fangraphs this pre-season. All of his pitches are regarded as about average as is the command. He didn’t make it out of the fifth inning on 89 pitches in his first start (and we have to watch for a conservative pitch count), but still struck out seven of 21 Rays. The White Sox may be decent against LHP again this year, but are not a strong offense overall. Yankee Stadium is really only a neutral run environment despite the short porch in right.
Robbie Ray is doing much of the same as last year. He’s missing bats at an elite rate and allowing hard contact in the air, though it’s been more hard contact (51.7%) and more often elevated (37.9 GB%). He’s also walked eight of 51 batters. However, he’s only allowed one Barrel in two games (a HR) and gets his second straight start in a pitcher’s park, facing an offense that has struggled greatly against LHP since last season. They do appear to have more RH fire power this year, but Gutierrez is already hurt and Forsythe left yesterday’s game with a hamstring issue, while Trayce Thompson was surprisingly optioned to the minors. Bad timing for the Dodgers, who still have Puig, Van Slyke and Turner, though the last of those has shown reverse splits since his break out.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Kyle Gibson has thrown 144 pitches and missed 19 bats. He generally accumulates an average amount of swinging strikes, yet a pathetic strikeout rate. Both have improved so far, though still with a well below average K/SwStr (1.36). He has faced 39 batters overall with four Barrels against him, the highest rate on the slate. He usually generates ground balls on a bit more than half his contact, but that’s been down closer to league average as well. Cleveland is a tough assignment. They’ve been punishing RHP so far (27.1 Hard-Soft%). He is the lowest priced pitcher on DraftKings though, where he’s potentially a better SP2 choice than anyone up to $1K above him if Montgomery is expected to be too highly owned.
Ivan Nova (.311 – 66.7% – 0) has allowed five runs in 12 innings, though just three have been earned. In two starts at home, against below average offenses, he has yet to allow a HR, but has generated just six swinging strikes total so far with just an average GB% and 35.6% hard contact. Things could be, maybe should be even worse than his current estimators. The St Louis offense hasn’t gotten on track yet.
Chase Anderson (.156 – 100% – 7.1) hasn’t looked bad in his first two starts, shutting down Colorado at home and then a surprisingly struggling Toronto team. He’s missing bats at a league average rate, but BABIP and strand rate have made him look great and he should be stepping up in competition here. The Cubs shouldn’t be a below average offense against RHP by far this year.
Tom Koehler (.194 – 100% – 25) is one of two pitchers today to not have allowed a single Barrel this year, yet he’s allowed three HRs, all in power suppressing parks. This is…confusing. His 0.0 K-BB% is not. His hard contact rate (26.5%) seems to align with the Statcast information. Not all HRs are barreled and it’s certainly possible Statcast is still missing plays, but they generally tend to overlook some of the weakest contact, not HRs.
Derek Holland (.147 – 72.7% – 0) has likely fluked his way through two starts with favorable results, as you can tell by the miniscule BABIP without a HR allowed. While his barrel rate are fairly low, a 36.4 Hard% with only 33.3% of his contact on the ground means batters are just missing the optimal launch angles on him thus far. He’s not missing many bats and certainly very few in the strike zone (96.2 Z-Contact%). He even walked as many as he struck out (four each) in his last outing. It seems just a matter of time, though the Yankees have not done much in limited opportunities against LHP so far, but are the hottest team on the board overall.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Jesse Chavez pitched well in his first start, but was torched in his second against Texas, both at home. He’s been missing bats at an above average rate and not allowing too much hard contact, but just 31% of it on the ground. The Astros are the top offense against RHP today and aside from continuing to exhibit power, they haven’t been striking out at all this season.
Lance Lynn looked okay in his first start back from TJS, not so much his second one (four walks, three HRs).
Jaime Garcia might be in the best spot on the board, at home against the Padres. He’s the other elite ground ball generators on the slate, but has been doing so at a well below average rate so far this season (40.2%). He has cut down on his sinkers by 13% in favor of his four-seam, but to what end, it’s unknown. His SwStr% is down. His K% is way down, though he should at least eventually double that mark.
Jered Weaver escaped Coors barely scathed last week. He had a .071 BABIP and stranded all his runners. He still allowed two HRs. In fact, with a .133 BABIP and 93.8 LOB% through two starts, he still has an ERA just below five. He’s had a well below average K/SwStr each of the last two seasons. I’m not expecting much better this year.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | Rangers | L2 Years | 20.9% | 8.9% | Road | 21.6% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 19.5% | 7.3% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 18.9% | 8.2% | Home | 23.4% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 10.4% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | L2 Years | 24.0% | 12.8% | Home | 26.2% | 13.9% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 9.1% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Years | 18.3% | 7.8% | Home | 23.6% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 20.4% | 8.2% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 17.9% | 7.2% | Road | 18.2% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 8.3% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 27.1% | 8.8% | Road | 28.7% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 40.8% | 12.2% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 15.6% | 7.6% | Road | 14.0% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 10.2% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 17.0% | 5.3% | Road | 19.2% | 3.3% | L14 Days | 9.8% | 0.0% |
| Jaime Garcia | Braves | L2 Years | 19.3% | 7.0% | Home | 20.5% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 8.0% | 8.0% |
| Jered Weaver | Padres | L2 Years | 13.5% | 5.8% | Road | 11.7% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 15.6% | 6.7% |
| Jesse Chavez | Angels | L2 Years | 20.8% | 7.0% | Road | 21.4% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 7.3% |
| Jharel Cotton | Athletics | L2 Years | 20.8% | 5.7% | Home | 20.7% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 10.6% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.2% | 6.5% | Home | 24.1% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 9.8% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 33.3% | 9.5% | Home | 33.3% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 9.5% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 17.3% | 8.1% | Home | 16.5% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 7.7% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 21.5% | 9.4% | Home | 18.2% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 10.6% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 25.6% | 9.3% | Road | 29.9% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 27.5% | 15.7% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | L2 Years | 18.0% | 10.2% | Road | 17.6% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 11.4% | 11.4% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | Home | 25.2% | 8.7% | RH | 22.5% | 8.6% | L7Days | 21.9% | 8.0% |
| Marlins | Road | 22.7% | 7.6% | LH | 22.8% | 11.4% | L7Days | 24.3% | 8.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 26.5% | 6.5% | RH | 25.7% | 8.6% | L7Days | 26.5% | 6.5% |
| Angels | Road | 22.0% | 8.4% | RH | 20.8% | 8.1% | L7Days | 22.9% | 8.7% |
| Cubs | Home | 23.9% | 10.4% | RH | 24.8% | 8.5% | L7Days | 23.9% | 10.4% |
| Twins | Home | 20.1% | 15.4% | RH | 20.9% | 12.5% | L7Days | 19.2% | 12.7% |
| Yankees | Home | 21.0% | 13.4% | LH | 16.7% | 19.4% | L7Days | 21.0% | 13.4% |
| Cardinals | Home | 22.6% | 13.3% | RH | 23.4% | 10.2% | L7Days | 24.0% | 5.8% |
| Padres | Road | 24.4% | 7.2% | LH | 22.1% | 9.9% | L7Days | 24.5% | 8.0% |
| Braves | Home | 16.3% | 9.6% | RH | 20.9% | 8.0% | L7Days | 18.6% | 9.0% |
| Astros | Home | 17.5% | 8.6% | RH | 16.8% | 9.9% | L7Days | 17.1% | 11.4% |
| Rangers | Road | 20.4% | 7.0% | RH | 21.7% | 7.0% | L7Days | 20.4% | 7.0% |
| Brewers | Road | 22.8% | 8.2% | RH | 26.7% | 8.6% | L7Days | 22.8% | 8.2% |
| White Sox | Road | 24.5% | 4.5% | LH | 16.8% | 9.5% | L7Days | 24.5% | 4.5% |
| Indians | Road | 17.7% | 9.3% | RH | 22.0% | 9.3% | L7Days | 22.4% | 11.6% |
| Pirates | Road | 20.1% | 7.9% | RH | 15.3% | 8.8% | L7Days | 22.3% | 10.0% |
| Dodgers | Home | 17.5% | 11.9% | LH | 21.2% | 9.4% | L7Days | 21.6% | 10.6% |
| Mariners | Home | 17.0% | 8.9% | RH | 21.9% | 7.7% | L7Days | 17.0% | 8.9% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | Rangers | L2 Years | 39.2% | 17.1% | 21.2% | 2017 | 51.7% | 20.0% | 34.5% | Road | 38.8% | 15.9% | 17.9% | L14 Days | 51.7% | 20.0% | 34.5% |
| Ariel Miranda | Mariners | L2 Years | 35.5% | 15.0% | 16.3% | 2017 | 27.3% | 23.1% | 0.0% | Home | 38.5% | 16.9% | 21.4% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 23.1% | 0.0% |
| Brandon McCarthy | Dodgers | L2 Years | 34.2% | 10.2% | 14.3% | 2017 | 25.0% | 9.1% | 6.2% | Home | 38.2% | 10.3% | 18.5% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 9.1% | 6.2% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Years | 29.9% | 14.0% | 9.2% | 2017 | 26.5% | 7.7% | 8.8% | Home | 21.3% | 8.3% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 7.7% | 8.8% |
| Chase Anderson | Brewers | L2 Years | 31.6% | 13.0% | 15.9% | 2017 | 30.3% | 7.1% | 9.1% | Road | 35.6% | 16.0% | 19.5% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 7.1% | 9.1% |
| Danny Salazar | Indians | L2 Years | 30.8% | 12.6% | 14.7% | 2017 | 27.3% | 14.3% | 18.2% | Road | 32.1% | 13.1% | 14.2% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 14.3% | 18.2% |
| Derek Holland | White Sox | L2 Years | 33.3% | 11.5% | 17.8% | 2017 | 36.4% | 0.0% | 24.3% | Road | 32.7% | 12.0% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 0.0% | 24.3% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 33.7% | 14.3% | 15.1% | 2017 | 35.6% | 0.0% | 15.6% | Road | 38.7% | 16.7% | 23.9% | L14 Days | 35.6% | 0.0% | 15.6% |
| Jaime Garcia | Braves | L2 Years | 29.6% | 15.5% | 9.9% | 2017 | 33.3% | 23.1% | 11.9% | Home | 31.9% | 27.1% | 16.0% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 23.1% | 11.9% |
| Jered Weaver | Padres | L2 Years | 32.4% | 11.7% | 12.2% | 2017 | 35.3% | 28.6% | 14.7% | Road | 35.8% | 14.2% | 17.9% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 28.6% | 14.7% |
| Jesse Chavez | Angels | L2 Years | 31.3% | 12.7% | 13.6% | 2017 | 27.6% | 15.4% | 20.7% | Road | 32.9% | 10.3% | 21.1% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 15.4% | 20.7% |
| Jharel Cotton | Athletics | L2 Years | 27.4% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 2017 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 3.1% | Home | 29.2% | 9.4% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 3.1% |
| John Lackey | Cubs | L2 Years | 31.4% | 10.9% | 14.3% | 2017 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 3.5% | Home | 31.6% | 11.4% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 9.1% | 3.5% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 45.5% | 20.0% | 36.4% | 2017 | 45.5% | 20.0% | 36.4% | Home | 45.5% | 20.0% | 36.4% | L14 Days | 45.5% | 20.0% | 36.4% |
| Kyle Gibson | Twins | L2 Years | 29.6% | 13.6% | 11.5% | 2017 | 35.7% | 33.3% | 14.3% | Home | 31.2% | 18.8% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 33.3% | 14.3% |
| Lance Lynn | Cardinals | L2 Years | 28.1% | 9.4% | 10.1% | 2017 | 29.4% | 23.1% | 23.5% | Home | 23.5% | 0.0% | 17.6% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 23.1% | 23.5% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 36.4% | 11.8% | 20.7% | 2017 | 51.7% | 11.1% | 34.5% | Road | 36.1% | 15.3% | 19.6% | L14 Days | 51.7% | 11.1% | 34.5% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | L2 Years | 31.4% | 11.6% | 13.1% | 2017 | 26.5% | 25.0% | 14.7% | Road | 26.6% | 10.2% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 25.0% | 14.7% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | Home | 25.0% | 18.5% | 4.2% | RH | 36.4% | 15.0% | 16.5% | L7Days | 30.5% | 11.5% | 5.3% |
| Marlins | Road | 30.9% | 8.5% | 11.1% | LH | 21.8% | 14.3% | -5.1% | L7Days | 32.5% | 18.2% | 10.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 32.4% | 6.5% | 19.0% | RH | 36.6% | 11.9% | 24.4% | L7Days | 32.4% | 6.5% | 19.0% |
| Angels | Road | 28.1% | 4.2% | 11.7% | RH | 27.9% | 14.1% | 8.8% | L7Days | 29.3% | 8.3% | 10.2% |
| Cubs | Home | 26.1% | 8.5% | 3.6% | RH | 26.6% | 6.0% | 6.9% | L7Days | 26.1% | 8.5% | 3.6% |
| Twins | Home | 30.0% | 5.1% | 10.7% | RH | 34.9% | 9.5% | 19.0% | L7Days | 37.0% | 8.5% | 18.2% |
| Yankees | Home | 32.7% | 19.6% | 14.3% | LH | 19.6% | 6.7% | -2.1% | L7Days | 32.7% | 19.6% | 14.3% |
| Cardinals | Home | 21.5% | 6.1% | 1.4% | RH | 22.9% | 12.3% | 3.7% | L7Days | 29.9% | 13.8% | 15.0% |
| Padres | Road | 28.9% | 13.1% | 7.2% | LH | 27.3% | 8.3% | 3.4% | L7Days | 27.3% | 17.1% | 4.3% |
| Braves | Home | 40.3% | 21.1% | 27.3% | RH | 33.2% | 12.2% | 18.4% | L7Days | 37.8% | 22.9% | 26.8% |
| Astros | Home | 24.1% | 17.7% | 1.0% | RH | 26.7% | 14.3% | 2.6% | L7Days | 28.6% | 6.8% | 8.2% |
| Rangers | Road | 24.5% | 11.3% | 4.2% | RH | 32.4% | 15.7% | 16.0% | L7Days | 24.5% | 11.3% | 4.2% |
| Brewers | Road | 28.0% | 20.7% | 10.8% | RH | 31.5% | 20.5% | 11.9% | L7Days | 28.0% | 20.7% | 10.8% |
| White Sox | Road | 22.9% | 9.6% | 10.5% | LH | 32.4% | 4.3% | 17.7% | L7Days | 22.9% | 9.6% | 10.5% |
| Indians | Road | 42.7% | 10.2% | 31.1% | RH | 40.2% | 15.5% | 27.1% | L7Days | 35.0% | 15.1% | 18.4% |
| Pirates | Road | 34.0% | 9.2% | 15.5% | RH | 31.4% | 8.6% | 10.4% | L7Days | 29.1% | 11.9% | 8.2% |
| Dodgers | Home | 38.3% | 15.9% | 24.1% | LH | 30.9% | 6.7% | 12.9% | L7Days | 30.0% | 7.1% | 13.3% |
| Mariners | Home | 30.3% | 11.5% | 6.8% | RH | 25.0% | 9.0% | 2.8% | L7Days | 30.3% | 11.5% | 6.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 19.5% | 7.6% | 2.57 | 19.5% | 7.6% | 2.57 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 18.8% | 9.0% | 2.09 | 18.8% | 9.0% | 2.09 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 18.2% | 7.7% | 2.36 | 18.2% | 7.7% | 2.36 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 20.4% | 10.6% | 1.92 | 20.4% | 10.6% | 1.92 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 22.9% | 9.6% | 2.39 | 22.9% | 9.6% | 2.39 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 40.8% | 16.4% | 2.49 | 40.8% | 16.4% | 2.49 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 18.4% | 7.2% | 2.56 | 18.4% | 7.2% | 2.56 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 9.8% | 3.4% | 2.88 | 9.8% | 3.4% | 2.88 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 8.0% | 8.1% | 0.99 | 8.0% | 8.1% | 0.99 |
| Jered Weaver | SDG | 15.6% | 9.0% | 1.73 | 15.6% | 9.0% | 1.73 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 22.0% | 10.3% | 2.14 | 22.0% | 10.3% | 2.14 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.05 | 21.3% | 10.4% | 2.05 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 33.3% | 12.8% | 2.60 | 33.3% | 12.8% | 2.60 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 33.3% | 16.9% | 1.97 | 33.3% | 16.9% | 1.97 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 18.0% | 13.2% | 1.36 | 18.0% | 13.2% | 1.36 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 17.0% | 7.0% | 2.43 | 17.0% | 7.0% | 2.43 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 27.5% | 12.4% | 2.22 | 27.5% | 12.4% | 2.22 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 11.4% | 7.8% | 1.46 | 11.4% | 7.8% | 1.46 |
Jered Weaver and Kyle Gibson are up to their old under-performing their SwStr% tricks. Weaver, along with Jaime Garcia and Tom Koehler don’t project for a ton of strikeouts either way, but Gibson has always been frustrating and might be an interesting trade target for some teams with the right pitching coach and philosophy.
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.34 ERA – 4.30 SIERA – 4.24 xFIP – 4.30 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 6.75 | 4.34 | -2.41 | 5.08 | -1.67 | 6.69 | -0.06 | 9.68 | 2.93 | 6.75 | 4.34 | -2.41 | 5.08 | -1.67 | 6.69 | -0.06 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 5.06 | 4.58 | -0.48 | 4.89 | -0.17 | 6.59 | 1.53 | 6.81 | 1.75 | 5.06 | 4.6 | -0.46 | 4.89 | -0.17 | 6.59 | 1.53 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 1.5 | 4.42 | 2.92 | 4.07 | 2.57 | 3.69 | 2.19 | 4.31 | 2.81 | 1.5 | 4.42 | 2.92 | 4.07 | 2.57 | 3.69 | 2.19 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 4.09 | 4.04 | -0.05 | 4.37 | 0.28 | 3.66 | -0.43 | 2.79 | -1.30 | 4.09 | 4.04 | -0.05 | 4.37 | 0.28 | 3.66 | -0.43 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 0.69 | 3.83 | 3.14 | 3.89 | 3.2 | 3.17 | 2.48 | 7.34 | 6.65 | 0.69 | 3.83 | 3.14 | 3.89 | 3.2 | 3.17 | 2.48 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 4.63 | 2.49 | -2.14 | 2.27 | -2.36 | 2.42 | -2.21 | 0.67 | -3.96 | 4.63 | 2.5 | -2.13 | 2.27 | -2.36 | 2.42 | -2.21 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 1.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 4.94 | 3.44 | 2.94 | 1.44 | 5.05 | 3.55 | 1.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 4.94 | 3.44 | 2.94 | 1.44 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 2.25 | 4.41 | 2.16 | 4.22 | 1.97 | 2.35 | 0.1 | 6.99 | 4.74 | 2.25 | 4.41 | 2.16 | 4.22 | 1.97 | 2.35 | 0.1 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 5.73 | 5.56 | -0.17 | 5.19 | -0.54 | 6.85 | 1.12 | 8.59 | 2.86 | 5.73 | 5.56 | -0.17 | 5.19 | -0.54 | 6.85 | 1.12 |
| Jered Weaver | SDG | 4.91 | 4.52 | -0.39 | 4.79 | -0.12 | 7.48 | 2.57 | 12.51 | 7.60 | 4.91 | 4.52 | -0.39 | 4.79 | -0.12 | 7.48 | 2.57 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 5.4 | 3.93 | -1.47 | 4.12 | -1.28 | 4.64 | -0.76 | 6.46 | 1.06 | 5.4 | 3.93 | -1.47 | 4.12 | -1.28 | 4.64 | -0.76 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 3.97 | 4.27 | 0.3 | 4.05 | 0.08 | 2.5 | -1.47 | 4.70 | 0.73 | 3.97 | 4.28 | 0.31 | 4.05 | 0.08 | 2.5 | -1.47 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 3 | 2.86 | -0.14 | 2.82 | -0.18 | 2.44 | -0.56 | 1.89 | -1.11 | 3 | 2.86 | -0.14 | 2.82 | -0.18 | 2.44 | -0.56 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 3.86 | 2.82 | -1.04 | 3.58 | -0.28 | 4.65 | 0.79 | 1.05 | -2.81 | 3.86 | 2.85 | -1.01 | 3.58 | -0.28 | 4.65 | 0.79 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 8 | 4.18 | -3.82 | 4.31 | -3.69 | 7.05 | -0.95 | 2.92 | -5.08 | 8 | 4.18 | -3.82 | 4.31 | -3.69 | 7.05 | -0.95 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 5.23 | 4.77 | -0.46 | 4.85 | -0.38 | 6.61 | 1.38 | 12.17 | 6.94 | 5.23 | 4.78 | -0.45 | 4.85 | -0.38 | 6.61 | 1.38 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 2.19 | 4.28 | 2.09 | 3.78 | 1.59 | 3.67 | 1.48 | 2.17 | -0.02 | 2.19 | 4.29 | 2.1 | 3.78 | 1.59 | 3.67 | 1.48 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 3.27 | 5.61 | 2.34 | 5.14 | 1.87 | 6.94 | 3.67 | 5.46 | 2.19 | 3.27 | 5.61 | 2.34 | 5.14 | 1.87 | 6.94 | 3.67 |
I’m still trying to figure out how you have a 4.63 ERA with a 40.8 K%.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.2 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Griffin | TEX | 0.290 | 0.192 | -0.098 | 31.0% | 0.172 | 13.3% | 88.5% | 88.9 | 13.80% | 9.80% | 29 |
| Ariel Miranda | SEA | 0.304 | 0.300 | -0.004 | 38.7% | 0.194 | 23.1% | 87.9% | 89.3 | 13.30% | 8.30% | 30 |
| Brandon McCarthy | LOS | 0.256 | 0.226 | -0.03 | 43.3% | 0.2 | 0.0% | 90.2% | 89 | 7.10% | 4.50% | 28 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 0.261 | 0.333 | 0.072 | 44.1% | 0.176 | 0.0% | 87.3% | 85.1 | 5.90% | 4.10% | 34 |
| Chase Anderson | MIL | 0.286 | 0.156 | -0.13 | 41.9% | 0.129 | 14.3% | 89.3% | 86.5 | 6.50% | 4.20% | 31 |
| Danny Salazar | CLE | 0.338 | 0.381 | 0.043 | 42.9% | 0.238 | 28.6% | 77.6% | 90 | 9.50% | 4.10% | 21 |
| Derek Holland | CHW | 0.252 | 0.147 | -0.105 | 33.3% | 0.212 | 6.7% | 96.2% | 91 | 3.20% | 2.00% | 31 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 0.306 | 0.311 | 0.005 | 45.2% | 0.214 | 21.4% | 100.0% | 88.7 | 4.90% | 3.90% | 41 |
| Jaime Garcia | ATL | 0.263 | 0.256 | -0.007 | 40.5% | 0.286 | 0.0% | 87.9% | 88.2 | 7.50% | 6.00% | 40 |
| Jered Weaver | SDG | 0.252 | 0.133 | -0.119 | 41.2% | 0.176 | 7.1% | 88.6% | 86.4 | 8.80% | 6.70% | 34 |
| Jesse Chavez | ANA | 0.261 | 0.259 | -0.002 | 31.0% | 0.241 | 7.7% | 84.0% | 90.1 | 6.90% | 4.90% | 29 |
| Jharel Cotton | OAK | 0.269 | 0.313 | 0.044 | 37.5% | 0.281 | 9.1% | 80.6% | 85.3 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 32 |
| John Lackey | CHC | 0.254 | 0.321 | 0.067 | 44.8% | 0.172 | 18.2% | 82.1% | 89.3 | 3.80% | 2.00% | 26 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 0.280 | 0.400 | 0.12 | 36.4% | 0.182 | 20.0% | 86.4% | 96.2 | 9.10% | 4.80% | 11 |
| Kyle Gibson | MIN | 0.215 | 0.240 | 0.025 | 46.4% | 0.214 | 0.0% | 81.8% | 87.3 | 14.80% | 10.30% | 27 |
| Lance Lynn | STL | 0.329 | 0.226 | -0.103 | 44.1% | 0.176 | 0.0% | 85.7% | 88.9 | 8.80% | 6.40% | 34 |
| Robbie Ray | ARI | 0.303 | 0.214 | -0.089 | 37.9% | 0.31 | 22.2% | 81.4% | 90.5 | 3.40% | 2.00% | 29 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 0.251 | 0.194 | -0.057 | 43.8% | 0.188 | 8.3% | 90.5% | 87.8 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 30 |
Low ground ball rates and team BABIPs across the board are particularly interesting today and probably not mutually exclusive.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Danny Salazar (1) is today’s highest priced pitcher, but still only right around $10K. He’s an inconsistent pitcher with control problems, contact issues and an injury to end his post-season, combined factors that had us passing on him in his first start in Texas, while his second one was on Wednesday’s day slate. He certainly looks healthy so far, exhibiting upside that can’t be ignored on today’s board. The current numbers for the Twins are probably inflated a bit over true talent and skill set. He certainly has the highest strikeout projection on the slate.
Value Tier Two
Charlie Morton (4) is now more DFS friendly than most people remember him. He’s not as much of a ground ball machine, but is throwing much harder (only six starters exceed his 95.5 mph four seamer and just four exceed the 94.9 mph two seamer he’s thrown more often) and missing more bats. He may have a lowered strikeout expectation against the Angels tonight, but should still have the upside to exceed a $6.5K price tag with his seemingly brand new arm. The sharper players may be onto him already, but casuals most likely won’t. Note that coming off an injury riddled season, he’s been held to 90 pitches in each of his two starts.
John Lackey (2) has come out of the gate strong. Perhaps the call should have been for another second half decline again rather than a strong case of full season regression, as predicted here initially. The stuff has been more than enough, even with reduced velocity (as all Cubs pitchers seem to be experiencing after two straight post-season runs). He’s just below the top priced Salazar tonight and carries some risk against a high powered offense (17 of 23 HRs allowed to RHBs last year), but also one that strikes out a ton.
Value Tier Three
Jharel Cotton (5) is starting to become slightly more expensive and hasn’t generated strikeouts at the rate he did in the minors yet, but it’s still a solid rate and he’s in a decent spot tonight. The biggest problem so far is that he’s had trouble throwing first pitch strikes (59.6%), which has led to a few more walks than normal, as batters are only chasing 26.4% of pitches out of the zone.
Robbie Ray (3) is a higher priced arm with continued hard contact issues and now perhaps a control problem, but he’s still missing a lot of bats and could be in a nice spot in LA tonight. He’s catching an offense that has been very poor against LHP at a time when they’re hurting from the right side.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jordan Montgomery looked good in his first major league start, but only threw 89 pitches and had the rookie debut, previously unseen bonus going for him. That said, he projects to be something of a league average arm and is in a decent spot at home against the White Sox at a below average cost. Beware that he may be the popular SP2 on DraftKings tonight, in which case, a fade could be in order.
Brandon McCarthy could be an average pitcher and that’s what the underlying numbers have shown so far. Matchup and park are both in his favor tonight. Six to eight strikeouts are likely with potentially a quality start. Though he’s probably priced accurately on DraftKings at just $100 from $8K, there’s a decent chance he exceeds his FanDuel price tag for $900 less. He may not be someone I’m looking for spots to fit in, but could tolerate landing here once or twice if playing several lineups.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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