Advanced Stats – Pitching: Monday, August 28th
Before getting started, I want to let readers know that we’ll be finishing up this week as the site gets more geared towards football and the best daily fantasy football coverage in the industry. I’ll probably say this again when wrapping up Thursday, but I want to thank readers for another great season. If you guys didn’t read it, they probably wouldn’t let me write it.
We start the week with the best one I’m going to have the privilege to write about for the remainder of the season. All the studs, or at least most of them, on a 10-game slate on Monday. Although, with Jordan Zimmermann pitching in Colorado, players are probably going to want to save a lot of salary for bats. That’s going to be difficult with a lot of high priced pitching, but it may not be impossible for those who are willing to embrace some risk.
I also wanted to mention the tragic circumstances in Houston and beyond extending my sympathies and positive thoughts to the people of Houston (I was lucky enough to come out of a hurricane relatively unscathed five years ago), DraftKings is doing something to benefit the victims and those with $5 or more in their account are encouraged to support their efforts.
Also, and minor GoT spoiler here, I saw an undead dragon spit blue fire…on Sunday night! Whatever it was, it was freaking amazing and I refuse to wait another year to see the next one. The real pain is going to come Sunday night at nine when I’m sitting there thinking there’s still a chance.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 0.8 | 3.53 | 5.88 | 51.5% | 0.96 | 2.99 | 4.88 | ATL | 91 | 88 | 105 |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 4.1 | 4.19 | 5.51 | 35.5% | 0.91 | 3.02 | 3.9 | OAK | 89 | 90 | 140 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | -3 | 4.54 | 5.64 | 49.5% | 1.39 | 4.59 | 2.79 | DET | 88 | 93 | 97 |
| Austin Pruitt | TAM | 2.1 | 4.38 | 5.29 | 45.4% | 1.06 | 4.28 | 5.67 | KAN | 90 | 91 | 53 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | -6 | 4.9 | 5.32 | 41.4% | 1.02 | 5 | 6.94 | SEA | 92 | 102 | 80 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 1.1 | 3.15 | 6.7 | 44.8% | 1.01 | 3.18 | 2.94 | NYY | 113 | 111 | 127 |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | -9.8 | 4.54 | 5.36 | 45.5% | 0.91 | 4.27 | 3.62 | ANA | 99 | 97 | 93 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 5.3 | 3.88 | 5.55 | 44.4% | 1.03 | 3.96 | 3.66 | TOR | 92 | 96 | 96 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 3 | 4.31 | 5.67 | 35.2% | 1.06 | 4.99 | 5.63 | TAM | 98 | 104 | 130 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | -4.1 | 3.94 | 6.38 | 43.3% | 0.91 | 3.73 | 4.59 | SDG | 87 | 86 | 78 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | -3.9 | 4.52 | 5.47 | 49.3% | 0.91 | 4.21 | 5.62 | SFO | 81 | 83 | 66 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 1 | 4.86 | 5.68 | 38.0% | 1.39 | 5.01 | 6.48 | COL | 90 | 81 | 74 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 1.8 | 4.94 | 5.37 | 43.8% | 1.01 | 5 | 4.46 | WAS | 112 | 102 | 70 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 0.9 | 3.61 | 5.66 | 49.7% | 1.01 | 3.44 | 3.17 | CLE | 101 | 104 | 123 |
| Luke Sims | ATL | -1 | 5.45 | 5.62 | 36.3% | 0.96 | 5.82 | 5.78 | PHI | 99 | 89 | 126 |
| Marco Gonzales | SEA | 7 | 4.88 | 3.85 | 47.8% | 1.02 | 3.24 | 4.04 | BAL | 104 | 98 | 117 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | -0.7 | 3.69 | 6.37 | 61.2% | 1.03 | 3.48 | 4.03 | BOS | 94 | 91 | 82 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 2 | 2.83 | 6.76 | 35.4% | 1.01 | 2.97 | 2.17 | MIA | 101 | 98 | 134 |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 4 | 4 | 5.13 | 58.5% | 0.96 | 3.89 | 4.21 | PIT | 85 | 88 | 66 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | -1.6 | 4.64 | 5.48 | 48.0% | 0.96 | 4.41 | 5.66 | CHC | 105 | 98 | 121 |
Aaron Nola has allowed 12 runs over his last two starts, in which he has just a 42.1 GB% and 39.5 Hard%, but did strike out seven last time out. It was the 10th time in 12 stars that he’s struck out at least that many. Some concern is reasonable, as he has some issues last year later in the season and 141 professional innings this year is 30 higher than last year, a career high. A 17.7 K-BB%, 49 GB% and 85.9 mph aEV on the season is not something we’re quick to throw away. There are five teams with strikeout rates below 20% on the board vs the handedness of tonight’s pitcher, but none are below 19%. The Braves are one of those teams (19.4% vs RHP) and their 16.4% over the last week is second lowest on the board, but they add a lack of power that still makes this a favorable spot for this pitcher in a power friendly, but run negative environment.
Andrew Heaney has thrown 168 pitches in two starts this year. He has generated 21 swinging strikes (12.5%), striking out nine of the 46 batters he’s faced (19.6%), but has also allowed a HR every 24 pitches or 6.57 batters with a 46% hard hit rate and 18.9% Barrels/BBE. Neither that nor his 53.8 HR/FB can continue. Major league hitters don’t even hit batting practice pitches out that often. They miss meatballs sometimes. He hasn’t walked a batter yet, but perhaps he needs to. The point is that he’s missing enough bats to be useful against an offense with a 24.8 K% on the road and 23.8 K% with an 11 HR/FB vs LHP. They are, however, the hottest offense on the board. A hard hit rate more than 10 points above your ground ball rate is a significant problem, but there are some good things happening here as well.
Corey Kluber has struck out at least eight in each of the last 18 starts he did not leave early due to an injury. That’s more than enough information. I bet you didn’t even know that he’s allowed a HR in eight straight starts and you probably shouldn’t even care all that much. What you might care a little bit about is that he has what might be the second worst matchup on the board at Yankee Stadium, in which he may be likely allow another HR. He’s more than likely to make up for it by pitching more than six innings, which he’s done in every start since the break in which he was not injured, with a high strikeout total.
Drew Pomeranz walked four Cleveland Indians, but also struck out nine of 23 batters in 5.1 shutout innings in his last start. He was also removed from his previous start early with an injury, but showed few effects. His 25 K% is fifth best on the board with nearly average ground ball and Statcast rates. He faces a slightly below average Toronto offense in a slightly run positive environment, making this somewhat of a neutral spot. The Blue Jays do have a 10.4 BB% vs LHP against a pitcher who can occasionally struggle with his control (9 BB%). They have a hard hit rate below 30% both at home and vs LHP this year, but a 29.5 Hard-Soft% over the last week.
Jeff Samardzija has just a 6.7 SwStr% and 17.5 K% in five August starts. His ERA is improved, but lest you think this is a conscious decision, his hard hit rate is up five points without a consistent shift in pitch selection or any change in velocity. Location would take a bit longer to figure out. His 20.7 K-BB% sits just outside the top 10 among qualified pitchers and he has one of the top matchups on the board in San Diego (25 K%, 6.9 Hard-Soft% both at home and vs RHP).
Luis Severino has bounced back from his worst start of the season with two great starts (13 IP – 2 R – 1 HR – 4 BB – 17 K – 55 BF). He’s struck out at least eight in five of his last six. His 21.9 K-BB% is seventh best among qualified pitchers, but just third best on today’s board. Nobody above him exceeds his 50.5 GB% though. He dominated Cleveland on the road in his first start of the month (6.1 IP – 1 ER – 9 K), but he has an occasional tendency towards hard contact (87.4 mph aEV) in a power friendly park and this is not a favorable matchup, though it’s not the worst on the slate.
Marcus Stroman has a 62.2 GB% that leads all quailed pitchers by 2.8 points and is nearly eight points ahead of the third best pitcher. He combines that with a double digit SwStr% and nearly league average strikeout rate, but not a lot of hard contact suppression, which runs his BABIP above .300 consistently. His 38.8% 95+ mph EV is highest on the board among qualified pitchers today. The Red Sox do not strike out a lot, but are a below average offense with below average power, making this a reasonably decent spot for him.
Max Scherzer has not pitched in two weeks and is likely to have some limitation imposed upon him, though it’s Dusty, so who knows and I can’t find it. Also to consider, the Nationals are coming off of a double-header yesterday, so maybe he throws 100. After the initial neck issue, he returned to strike out 19 of 53 batters over his next two starts before hitting the DL. The Marins have a 26.2 HR/FB over the last week.
Mike Montgomery lasted 89 pitches and six innings in his first start in over a month last week. He’s struck out eight of his last 39 batters with a 66.7 GB% and -17.8 Hard-Soft% over these two outings. His 3.1% Barrels/BBE and 27.8% 95+ mph EV are lowest on the board in a great matchup against a Pittsburgh offense with a 25.8 K% over the last week and not a lot of power.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Jose Urena (.245 – 78.3% – 11.7) has kept himself afloat by generating an above average amount of weak contact, though his hard hit rate has been above 35% and below average GB% in three of his last four starts. After a double-header on Sunday, Dusty is just as likely to run out another AAA lineup with not much to play for until October, but a 16.2 K% still makes him obsolete in a daily fantasy setting.
Luke Sims (.280 – 76.9% – 11.8) has just a 5.7 K-BB% and while none of these numbers is very far out of line, the sum of their parts has generated estimators well above his peripherals through five starts. His 83.9 mph aEV is lowest on the board.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Austin Pruitt lasted less than four innings in his last start, allowing four HRs to the Blue Jays. He allowed three HRs in his first start of the season about a month ago at Yankee Stadium, but just one over the five in between. He has just a 12.2 K% in August with a 43.1 Hard%. He’s very cheap and facing the coldest offense on the board. The Royals don’t walk, have a -3.8 Hard-Soft% over the last week and haven’t scored a run in days, but he’s still unlikely to give you enough. There are probably worse SP2 values on DraftKings though.
Marco Gonzales is not generating strikeouts, but does have a double digit SwStr%. It’s been at least 9.8% in four of his five starts this year, in which he’s generated a 50 GB% and 6.4 Hard-Soft% despite allowing a HR in every start. That’s a little tricky too because his 44.9% 95+ mph EV is highest on the board. He generates a lot of weak contact, but apparently a lot of hard contact too and very little in between. This makes Baltimore (17.2 HR/FB at home, 24.1 HR/FB over the last seven days) a very dangerous spot, but not entirely without upside (17.2 K-BB% vs LHP) at a low cost. He’s a reasonable SP2 compliment to a high cost arm tonight.
Jhoulys Chacin has had some success generating weak contact (85.7 mph aEV, 28.3% 95+ mph EV) in a favorable park this season and might have the top run prevention matchup on the board against the Giants (10.6 HR/FB on the road, 8.7 HR/FB & 7.0 Hard-Soft% vs RHP, 5.6 HR/FB last seven days), while they’ve even struck out in a quarter of their plate appearances over the last week. However, his 5.8 SwStr% over the last month generates the only over-achieving outlier on the K/SwStr board today, while his walk rate has been out of control, at 12.9% over his last six starts, in which his hard hit rate has been a bit more generous (30.9%).
Antonio Senzatela has split the last two months between the rotation and bullpen, spot starting on occasion and sometimes giving his team a respectable effort, but never more than five innings. Detroit has been a below average offense on the road and against RHP. They even have a 17.8 K-BB% over the last week, but are still easily the worst matchup on the board at Coors.
Trevor Williams successfully generates a lot of weak contact (85 mph aEV, 28.8% 95+ mph EV), but does not miss a lot of bats. Despite the increase in strikeouts to league average over the last month, his well below SwStr% hasn’t budged. He has a 10.7 BB% against an offense that takes a lot of walks and has a 17.2 HR/FB at home.
Daniel Gossett made his first start and major league appearance since August 2nd last week, so the above average K% and SwStr% over the last month are not as impressive as they appear. He has allowed 12 HRs in 11 starts, but with just a league average ground ball rate, hard hit rate a 30.8% 95+ mph EV. The Angels appear a neutral offense in a pitcher friendly park, but are one of the lower strikeout offenses on the board.
Ian Kennedy has allowed multiple HRs in three straight starts, the last two at home, in which he lasted fewer than five innings each time. His 89.8 mph aEV is second highest on the board. The Rays strike out a ton (25% on the road and vs RHP, while his SwStr% is up slightly over the last month even if strikeout are down. He’s actually only been above 9% twice in last seven starts and been below a 7 SwStr% in four of those starts. The Rays also have a 17.1 HR/FB vs RHP. He’s had very little split in terms of wOBA or HRs allowed this year with a slight advantage to LHBs.
Jordan Zimmermann has a hard hit rate above 40% in three straight and six of his last eight starts. Good luck in Colorado in a park that greatly bolsters a terrible offense against RHP.
Chris Tillman has allowed 18 HRs with 31 walks over his last 54 innings. His 89.8 mph aEV is highest on the board.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 24.9% | 6.5% | Home | 28.4% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 9.4% |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | L2 Years | 19.8% | 6.3% | Home | 22.9% | 0.0% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 0.0% |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Years | 18.1% | 7.9% | Home | 15.3% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 2.9% |
| Austin Pruitt | Rays | L2 Years | 16.6% | 5.1% | Road | 18.2% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 9.5% | 4.1% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 17.6% | 9.7% | Home | 18.3% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 18.8% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 29.8% | 6.3% | Road | 28.0% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 5.1% |
| Daniel Gossett | Athletics | L2 Years | 16.9% | 5.8% | Road | 17.6% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 8.7% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 25.7% | 8.9% | Road | 24.9% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 13.2% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 22.6% | 8.6% | Home | 21.9% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 12.8% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 21.7% | 5.4% | Road | 22.5% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 5.8% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 19.1% | 9.2% | Home | 20.3% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 14.0% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 15.6% | 6.3% | Road | 15.7% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 9.6% | 5.8% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 15.7% | 8.2% | Road | 17.1% | 7.9% | L14 Days | 15.9% | 6.8% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 25.1% | 7.2% | Home | 25.6% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 30.9% | 7.3% |
| Luke Sims | Braves | L2 Years | 12.1% | 6.5% | Road | 9.8% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 10.6% |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | L2 Years | 12.5% | 5.4% | Road | 23.8% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 7.1% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.4% | 6.8% | Home | 19.1% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 7.7% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 33.3% | 5.9% | Home | 34.3% | 5.6% | L14 Days | 40.0% | 4.0% |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | L2 Years | 20.5% | 10.0% | Home | 21.1% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 7.7% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Years | 17.4% | 7.8% | Road | 17.6% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 11.8% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | Road | 19.2% | 7.6% | RH | 19.4% | 7.1% | L7Days | 16.4% | 8.4% |
| Athletics | Road | 24.8% | 9.2% | LH | 23.8% | 9.1% | L7Days | 19.9% | 10.8% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.6% | 8.7% | RH | 22.2% | 8.9% | L7Days | 23.6% | 5.8% |
| Royals | Home | 18.8% | 6.6% | RH | 20.3% | 6.6% | L7Days | 20.7% | 4.3% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.0% | 7.3% | RH | 20.9% | 7.5% | L7Days | 22.2% | 6.7% |
| Yankees | Home | 22.9% | 10.4% | RH | 22.2% | 9.5% | L7Days | 15.4% | 11.5% |
| Angels | Home | 18.4% | 8.0% | RH | 19.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 18.1% | 9.6% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 20.2% | 8.7% | LH | 21.3% | 10.4% | L7Days | 20.9% | 5.3% |
| Rays | Road | 24.7% | 8.8% | RH | 24.8% | 8.9% | L7Days | 23.3% | 8.5% |
| Padres | Home | 24.8% | 8.3% | RH | 25.1% | 7.5% | L7Days | 22.8% | 6.8% |
| Giants | Road | 19.4% | 7.8% | RH | 19.4% | 7.4% | L7Days | 25.2% | 6.2% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.2% | 8.5% | RH | 22.4% | 8.1% | L7Days | 24.3% | 9.3% |
| Nationals | Home | 20.2% | 8.9% | RH | 20.5% | 9.0% | L7Days | 22.3% | 7.2% |
| Indians | Road | 18.7% | 9.4% | RH | 19.7% | 9.4% | L7Days | 19.6% | 10.8% |
| Phillies | Home | 23.0% | 8.3% | RH | 23.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 26.0% | 7.0% |
| Orioles | Home | 21.7% | 7.2% | LH | 23.8% | 6.6% | L7Days | 23.0% | 5.8% |
| Red Sox | Road | 19.6% | 8.8% | RH | 19.4% | 8.6% | L7Days | 22.0% | 10.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.4% | 6.9% | RH | 20.4% | 7.8% | L7Days | 20.6% | 9.4% |
| Pirates | Road | 20.0% | 8.6% | LH | 20.0% | 9.5% | L7Days | 25.8% | 9.7% |
| Cubs | Home | 22.0% | 9.9% | RH | 22.3% | 9.3% | L7Days | 23.4% | 12.3% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Years | 29.7% | 12.8% | 6.6% | 2017 | 31.2% | 10.9% | 8.3% | Home | 28.9% | 18.3% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 39.5% | 14.3% | 21.1% |
| Andrew Heaney | Angels | L2 Years | 34.3% | 17.1% | 17.2% | 2017 | 46.0% | 53.8% | 32.5% | Home | 35.1% | 41.7% | 24.3% | L14 Days | 46.0% | 53.8% | 32.5% |
| Antonio Senzatela | Rockies | L2 Years | 28.7% | 16.8% | 10.5% | 2017 | 28.7% | 16.8% | 10.5% | Home | 29.6% | 19.7% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 0.0% | -3.7% |
| Austin Pruitt | Rays | L2 Years | 37.3% | 13.3% | 21.9% | 2017 | 37.3% | 13.3% | 21.9% | Road | 33.3% | 16.7% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 49.2% | 17.2% | 38.1% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 32.7% | 13.5% | 14.8% | 2017 | 35.7% | 19.8% | 18.6% | Home | 32.1% | 14.8% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 25.0% | 31.8% |
| Corey Kluber | Indians | L2 Years | 29.0% | 12.7% | 8.4% | 2017 | 30.3% | 14.5% | 7.8% | Road | 31.0% | 12.9% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 31.9% | 17.6% | 10.6% |
| Daniel Gossett | Athletics | L2 Years | 30.4% | 19.7% | 14.5% | 2017 | 30.4% | 19.7% | 14.5% | Road | 31.7% | 19.4% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 33.3% | 26.6% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 31.7% | 13.3% | 11.5% | 2017 | 31.6% | 12.0% | 9.0% | Road | 30.1% | 10.5% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Kennedy | Royals | L2 Years | 38.0% | 13.8% | 22.2% | 2017 | 40.3% | 15.2% | 28.1% | Home | 42.2% | 13.3% | 27.7% | L14 Days | 51.9% | 30.8% | 48.2% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 30.3% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 2017 | 29.4% | 14.3% | 9.0% | Road | 30.9% | 15.5% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 12.5% | 12.8% |
| Jhoulys Chacin | Padres | L2 Years | 31.0% | 12.1% | 11.4% | 2017 | 29.0% | 12.8% | 8.5% | Home | 27.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 0.0% | 17.8% |
| Jordan Zimmermann | Tigers | L2 Years | 33.3% | 13.0% | 16.3% | 2017 | 39.3% | 13.7% | 24.8% | Road | 29.4% | 11.4% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 8.3% | 29.5% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.4% | 11.9% | 11.9% | 2017 | 32.3% | 11.7% | 12.9% | Road | 33.3% | 13.5% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 22.2% | 5.9% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 28.7% | 15.1% | 9.3% | 2017 | 28.6% | 13.2% | 10.4% | Home | 31.1% | 21.1% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 12.5% | 3.0% |
| Luke Sims | Braves | L2 Years | 30.9% | 11.8% | 9.2% | 2017 | 30.9% | 11.8% | 9.2% | Road | 32.5% | 9.1% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | -5.6% |
| Marco Gonzales | Mariners | L2 Years | 32.6% | 29.6% | 9.8% | 2017 | 30.8% | 30.4% | 6.4% | Road | 28.6% | 40.0% | -7.1% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Marcus Stroman | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.6% | 16.6% | 10.7% | 2017 | 30.5% | 17.0% | 9.2% | Home | 31.9% | 12.4% | 12.7% | L14 Days | 40.5% | 33.3% | 18.9% |
| Max Scherzer | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.7% | 12.3% | 8.4% | 2017 | 28.5% | 11.9% | 8.7% | Home | 26.4% | 10.8% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | L2 Years | 28.3% | 13.1% | 8.3% | 2017 | 30.9% | 11.3% | 9.2% | Home | 27.9% | 12.3% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 18.0% | 11.1% | -10.2% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Years | 29.0% | 12.1% | 6.3% | 2017 | 28.8% | 10.1% | 5.5% | Road | 26.7% | 18.5% | 2.6% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 21.4% | 13.9% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | Road | 31.7% | 12.5% | 13.6% | RH | 30.8% | 11.3% | 12.4% | L7Days | 26.4% | 10.4% | 7.2% |
| Athletics | Road | 34.2% | 12.6% | 16.1% | LH | 31.3% | 11.0% | 13.2% | L7Days | 32.3% | 18.6% | 17.3% |
| Tigers | Road | 34.4% | 12.3% | 16.9% | RH | 39.5% | 11.6% | 23.8% | L7Days | 34.2% | 17.3% | 18.4% |
| Royals | Home | 30.0% | 10.8% | 9.1% | RH | 31.0% | 12.1% | 11.2% | L7Days | 21.8% | 6.3% | -3.8% |
| Mariners | Road | 31.5% | 11.0% | 13.3% | RH | 30.4% | 12.1% | 12.2% | L7Days | 25.6% | 6.9% | 4.9% |
| Yankees | Home | 29.5% | 18.2% | 8.6% | RH | 31.0% | 16.3% | 11.7% | L7Days | 33.2% | 10.8% | 11.3% |
| Angels | Home | 29.0% | 12.5% | 9.8% | RH | 31.1% | 13.7% | 11.4% | L7Days | 27.9% | 9.4% | 7.9% |
| Blue Jays | Home | 29.8% | 14.4% | 10.5% | LH | 29.3% | 13.8% | 10.8% | L7Days | 42.8% | 17.4% | 29.5% |
| Rays | Road | 32.3% | 16.3% | 12.3% | RH | 35.1% | 17.1% | 17.1% | L7Days | 37.3% | 18.8% | 22.1% |
| Padres | Home | 29.0% | 12.3% | 6.9% | RH | 29.8% | 13.7% | 6.9% | L7Days | 32.1% | 9.5% | 6.2% |
| Giants | Road | 30.6% | 10.6% | 9.8% | RH | 28.2% | 8.7% | 7.0% | L7Days | 27.0% | 5.6% | 7.1% |
| Rockies | Home | 33.3% | 16.5% | 14.4% | RH | 30.8% | 13.2% | 10.9% | L7Days | 30.9% | 16.7% | 12.1% |
| Nationals | Home | 32.2% | 14.6% | 15.7% | RH | 31.5% | 14.7% | 14.6% | L7Days | 23.7% | 5.5% | 2.7% |
| Indians | Road | 35.0% | 12.4% | 18.7% | RH | 33.8% | 12.8% | 17.2% | L7Days | 26.8% | 17.6% | 10.0% |
| Phillies | Home | 29.4% | 15.6% | 8.4% | RH | 30.4% | 12.6% | 9.8% | L7Days | 30.2% | 25.8% | 6.9% |
| Orioles | Home | 31.5% | 17.2% | 11.7% | LH | 34.4% | 13.9% | 15.9% | L7Days | 34.9% | 24.1% | 16.9% |
| Red Sox | Road | 32.0% | 12.0% | 11.8% | RH | 33.5% | 11.2% | 15.5% | L7Days | 28.1% | 13.2% | 4.5% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.2% | 15.2% | 8.7% | RH | 31.2% | 15.6% | 11.1% | L7Days | 25.7% | 26.2% | 7.4% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.6% | 11.8% | 10.4% | LH | 30.7% | 13.1% | 10.4% | L7Days | 32.0% | 14.3% | 12.5% |
| Cubs | Home | 31.9% | 17.2% | 14.6% | RH | 31.4% | 15.7% | 13.7% | L7Days | 31.0% | 17.2% | 13.9% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 25.1% | 10.3% | 2.44 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.09 |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 19.6% | 12.5% | 1.57 | 19.6% | 12.5% | 1.57 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 18.1% | 7.2% | 2.51 | 20.8% | 8.2% | 2.54 |
| Austin Pruitt | TAM | 16.6% | 9.3% | 1.78 | 15.3% | 8.4% | 1.82 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 15.3% | 7.2% | 2.13 | 16.2% | 6.1% | 2.66 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 35.4% | 16.2% | 2.19 | 35.3% | 16.6% | 2.13 |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | 16.9% | 8.8% | 1.92 | 21.4% | 11.3% | 1.89 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 25.0% | 10.6% | 2.36 | 24.8% | 11.6% | 2.14 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 20.7% | 9.1% | 2.27 | 18.6% | 9.7% | 1.92 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 24.4% | 10.0% | 2.44 | 17.5% | 6.7% | 2.61 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 19.3% | 7.9% | 2.44 | 16.1% | 5.8% | 2.78 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 14.6% | 8.3% | 1.76 | 10.4% | 8.5% | 1.22 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 16.2% | 8.3% | 1.95 | 16.1% | 7.1% | 2.27 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 28.4% | 12.2% | 2.33 | 30.2% | 11.2% | 2.70 |
| Luke Sims | ATL | 12.1% | 7.6% | 1.59 | 12.1% | 7.6% | 1.59 |
| Marco Gonzales | SEA | 13.5% | 10.6% | 1.27 | 13.8% | 10.3% | 1.34 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 19.7% | 10.2% | 1.93 | 18.1% | 10.8% | 1.68 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 35.7% | 15.9% | 2.25 | 33.9% | 13.9% | 2.44 |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 18.9% | 8.0% | 2.36 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 2.34 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 17.3% | 7.9% | 2.19 | 20.6% | 7.8% | 2.64 |
Our season outliers are all small sample size, while we have mostly under-achievers, which have been mentioned, over the last month.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 3.58 | 3.81 | 0.23 | 3.64 | 0.06 | 3.3 | -0.28 | 2.87 | -0.71 | 4.88 | 4.26 | -0.62 | 4.19 | -0.69 | 3.54 | -1.34 |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 8.1 | 3.9 | -4.2 | 3.66 | -4.44 | 10.43 | 2.33 | 3.76 | -4.34 | 8.1 | 3.9 | -4.2 | 3.66 | -4.44 | 10.43 | 2.33 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 4.52 | 4.54 | 0.02 | 4.3 | -0.22 | 4.64 | 0.12 | 5.34 | 0.82 | 2.84 | 3.72 | 0.88 | 3.46 | 0.62 | 2.92 | 0.08 |
| Austin Pruitt | TAM | 5.76 | 4.38 | -1.38 | 4.56 | -1.2 | 4.48 | -1.28 | 4.22 | -1.54 | 5.29 | 4.8 | -0.49 | 5.02 | -0.27 | 5.6 | 0.31 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 7.75 | 5.54 | -2.21 | 5.54 | -2.21 | 6.49 | -1.26 | 8.53 | 0.78 | 10.93 | 5.88 | -5.05 | 5.75 | -5.18 | 8.34 | -2.59 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 2.65 | 2.63 | -0.02 | 2.49 | -0.16 | 2.56 | -0.09 | 2.16 | -0.49 | 2.44 | 2.5 | 0.06 | 2.58 | 0.14 | 2.83 | 0.39 |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | 5.49 | 4.54 | -0.95 | 4.26 | -1.23 | 5.04 | -0.45 | 5.93 | 0.44 | 5.74 | 4.53 | -1.21 | 4.05 | -1.69 | 3.38 | -2.36 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 3.18 | 4.07 | 0.89 | 3.84 | 0.66 | 3.62 | 0.44 | 3.93 | 0.75 | 1.59 | 3.85 | 2.26 | 3.63 | 2.04 | 3.09 | 1.5 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 5.09 | 4.79 | -0.3 | 5.12 | 0.03 | 5.36 | 0.27 | 5.17 | 0.08 | 7.99 | 5.02 | -2.97 | 5.43 | -2.56 | 6.85 | -1.14 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 4.67 | 3.57 | -1.1 | 3.46 | -1.21 | 3.52 | -1.15 | 3.39 | -1.28 | 3.9 | 4.78 | 0.88 | 4.81 | 0.91 | 3.68 | -0.22 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 4.1 | 4.66 | 0.56 | 4.56 | 0.46 | 4.43 | 0.33 | 4.62 | 0.52 | 3.58 | 5.65 | 2.07 | 5.95 | 2.37 | 5.01 | 1.43 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 6.11 | 5.25 | -0.86 | 5.48 | -0.63 | 5.46 | -0.65 | 6.16 | 0.05 | 7.01 | 5.77 | -1.24 | 6.04 | -0.97 | 5.23 | -1.78 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 3.68 | 5.07 | 1.39 | 5.34 | 1.66 | 5 | 1.32 | 4.69 | 1.01 | 2.45 | 4.77 | 2.32 | 4.86 | 2.41 | 4.42 | 1.97 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 3.1 | 3.32 | 0.22 | 3.1 | 0 | 3.04 | -0.06 | 3.13 | 0.03 | 3.41 | 3.38 | -0.03 | 3.17 | -0.24 | 3.54 | 0.13 |
| Luke Sims | ATL | 4.13 | 5.45 | 1.32 | 5.5 | 1.37 | 5.17 | 1.04 | 5.48 | 1.35 | 4.13 | 5.45 | 1.32 | 5.5 | 1.37 | 5.17 | 1.04 |
| Marco Gonzales | SEA | 7.4 | 4.74 | -2.66 | 4.6 | -2.8 | 7 | -0.4 | 4.81 | -2.59 | 6.23 | 4.78 | -1.45 | 4.49 | -1.74 | 5.72 | -0.51 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 3.17 | 3.85 | 0.68 | 3.62 | 0.45 | 3.87 | 0.7 | 3.44 | 0.27 | 3.51 | 3.79 | 0.28 | 3.65 | 0.14 | 4.03 | 0.52 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 2.25 | 2.75 | 0.5 | 3.06 | 0.81 | 2.82 | 0.57 | 2.18 | -0.07 | 2.4 | 2.79 | 0.39 | 2.99 | 0.59 | 2.93 | 0.53 |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 3.43 | 4.43 | 1 | 4.35 | 0.92 | 4.11 | 0.68 | 4.54 | 1.11 | 1.8 | 4.66 | 2.86 | 4.64 | 2.84 | 4.03 | 2.23 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 4.4 | 4.68 | 0.28 | 4.56 | 0.16 | 4.09 | -0.31 | 3.85 | -0.55 | 3.99 | 4.85 | 0.86 | 4.81 | 0.82 | 4.42 | 0.43 |
Aaron Nola has the lowest DRA of any pitcher who overshoots their DRA by more than half a run today. Over the last month, he has just a 9.1 HR/FB (two HRs in his last start), but also a .315 BABIP and 66.1 LOB% with a 14.5 LD%.
Drew Pomeranz has an 80.4 LOB%, which suppresses his ERA a bit.
Jeff Samardzija has a .324 BABIP for the season without a below average BABIP profile, but an average rate of hard contact despite the high LD rate for the season. He’s also stranded just 66.5% of runners, a career low in a starting role. Over the last month, the significant change has been a reduction in his HR rate. He’s actually cut a 14.3 HR/FB rate in half (7.1 HR/FB) despite a hard contact rate five points above his season total. Nothing seems to make sense here.
Max Scherzer has a .237 BABIP and 83.9 LOB%. He gets a ton of popups with a low line drive rate in addition to all the strikeouts, so I don’t have a major issue with any of this, though it should regress a bit.
Mike Montgomery has a .265 BABIP, but a quality defense with little hard contact.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | PHI | 0.297 | 0.301 | 0.004 | 49.0% | 0.18 | 6.7% | 85.7% | 85.9 | 4.70% | 30.40% | 362 |
| Andrew Heaney | ANA | 0.285 | 0.267 | -0.018 | 34.3% | 0.286 | 7.7% | 80.4% | 88.5 | 18.90% | 40.50% | 37 |
| Antonio Senzatela | COL | 0.302 | 0.274 | -0.028 | 49.5% | 0.212 | 5.6% | 89.8% | 87 | 5.70% | 34.40% | 369 |
| Austin Pruitt | TAM | 0.284 | 0.344 | 0.06 | 45.4% | 0.216 | 10.7% | 90.9% | 88 | 8.30% | 32.90% | 228 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 0.315 | 0.367 | 0.052 | 40.5% | 0.248 | 11.0% | 90.6% | 89.9 | 7.60% | 41.40% | 263 |
| Corey Kluber | CLE | 0.303 | 0.276 | -0.027 | 46.5% | 0.191 | 12.0% | 80.8% | 86.2 | 5.80% | 31.20% | 343 |
| Daniel Gossett | OAK | 0.292 | 0.307 | 0.015 | 45.5% | 0.237 | 8.2% | 89.2% | 87.3 | 7.00% | 30.80% | 201 |
| Drew Pomeranz | BOS | 0.305 | 0.315 | 0.01 | 42.9% | 0.236 | 12.0% | 84.8% | 86.4 | 6.60% | 31.60% | 380 |
| Ian Kennedy | KAN | 0.299 | 0.256 | -0.043 | 37.9% | 0.157 | 6.4% | 83.9% | 89.8 | 11.10% | 36.50% | 370 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.317 | 0.324 | 0.007 | 42.0% | 0.237 | 8.9% | 85.4% | 86.6 | 6.00% | 32.30% | 496 |
| Jhoulys Chacin | SDG | 0.307 | 0.275 | -0.032 | 50.8% | 0.18 | 14.3% | 90.1% | 85.7 | 6.20% | 28.30% | 435 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | DET | 0.309 | 0.321 | 0.012 | 32.3% | 0.249 | 13.2% | 90.3% | 88.8 | 7.90% | 35.60% | 483 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 0.293 | 0.245 | -0.048 | 40.4% | 0.185 | 9.9% | 89.4% | 85.4 | 9.40% | 31.00% | 403 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 0.290 | 0.289 | -0.001 | 50.5% | 0.199 | 9.9% | 83.9% | 87.4 | 5.80% | 34.40% | 413 |
| Luke Sims | ATL | 0.292 | 0.280 | -0.012 | 36.3% | 0.264 | 5.9% | 88.4% | 83.9 | 5.20% | 30.90% | 97 |
| Marco Gonzales | SEA | 0.279 | 0.352 | 0.073 | 50.0% | 0.205 | 4.3% | 91.0% | 88.4 | 10.30% | 44.90% | 78 |
| Marcus Stroman | TOR | 0.307 | 0.312 | 0.005 | 62.2% | 0.174 | 5.0% | 88.7% | 88.1 | 5.30% | 38.00% | 492 |
| Max Scherzer | WAS | 0.293 | 0.237 | -0.056 | 38.1% | 0.157 | 12.6% | 79.1% | 86.2 | 6.60% | 30.70% | 348 |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 0.283 | 0.265 | -0.018 | 58.6% | 0.169 | 2.8% | 89.8% | 85 | 3.10% | 27.80% | 295 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 0.308 | 0.291 | -0.017 | 48.3% | 0.202 | 11.8% | 90.3% | 85 | 5.20% | 28.80% | 386 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Max Scherzer (1…2…does not apply???) could walk off the mound in the first inning with his neck bothering him again. He may also be allowed to do whatever he wants and that may be throwing seven innings after a double header. I have no idea what to do with him and the cost is enormous. That’s a major risk and it could keep his ownership down. I’m not really sure what to do with him here, but he ranks well above any other pitcher if we consider him fully healthy and without limitations here. There are not a lot of top pitchers in high strikeout spots.
Value Tier Two
Aaron Nola (2) has run into some trouble last two times out. He is at a career high for innings, but is still below 150. There’s some concern because of how he ended last season, but it’s more a slight concern than a panic. He did strike out seven last time out and faces a weak hitting offense tonight.
Corey Kluber (1) is probably the top overall arm, even considering matchup, on the slate if we figure Scherzer to have any kind of limitation tonight. They are have the top strikeout and swinging strike rates on the board, though his 16.6 SwStr% over the last month blows away the competition. The only two close are Scherzer and Heaney, who have been limited over this span. He’s at least five points above anybody else. The opposition is only a concern in consideration to the cost, which is second only to Scherzer with both being fairly enormous. Over this eight start span where he’s allowed a HR every time out, he has just a 5.5 Hard-Soft%.
Jeff Samardzija (3t) is striking out fewer batters and allowing harder contact leading to better overall results for some reason. The good news is that he’s in a great spot and a high strikeout upside one at a cost of $9K or less in San Diego tonight.
Value Tier Three
Mike Montgomery is in an interesting spot. The Pirates have been striking out more recently and don’t have a lot of power. He got through six innings last time out and could approach 100 pitches here. His cost isn’t so low that you can easily plug him in as an SP2 with someone like Kluber or Scherzer, but he’s much cheaper than most other useful arms tonight. He probably merits some consideration on FanDuel as well if you’re considering stacking Coors bats.
Andrew Heaney can’t possibly continue allowing HRs at this pace even if just by dumb luck. He has been missing a lot of bats though and he’s also facing an offense that swings and misses a lot. You’re not going to find low cost pitchers without a lot of inherent risk and/or a small sample size at this point in the year. He has both, but also some potential upside. This is your high risk GPP SP2 on DraftKings. The quality start requirements on FanDuel make him much less appealing. You’re probably going to want to pay up for your pitching there tonight.
Marcus Stroman (5) is not in a high strikeout spot, but he’s facing a below average offense without a lot of power, which should help his exit velocities, while he keeps most of his contact on the ground. His price actually seems reduced to compensate for a strikeout or two less. The Red Sox do have a 110 sOPS+ against ground ball pitchers, which is sixth best in baseball.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Luis Severino (3t) is a bit below the top two guys on the slate, but surely an elite pitcher this year. We’re just having problems finding those elite arms in favorable spots tonight. This is not only a bit of a dangerous spot for him, but not a high strikeout one either at a high price. He did strike out nine Cleveland Indians in the last time he faced them though.
Drew Pomeranz (6) is the poor man’s pitcher tonight. The fifth highest strikeout rate on this board at a cost below $9K is nothing to sneeze at. If there’s concern that he’s potentially facing an all RH hitting lineup, he’s generated more ground balls against batters from that side with a wOBA 100 points less and similar peripherals plus hard contact rate.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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