Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, July 30th
Well, this is certainly a late slate, if we can say anything about it. More pacific time zone games than not with just two starting in the first hour after lock, which itself is a few minutes later today. Doesn’t look like a bad group of pitchers at all though, even if one or two of them are in difficult spots.
One more thing to remember, which I mentioned on Friday: remember that rosters are turning over this week and some season stat totals may not be where these teams are right now.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | -8.1 | 3.58 | 6.3 | 50.4% | 1.12 | 3.85 | 4.78 | Red Sox | 122 | 117 | 116 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | -0.9 | 4.05 | 6.2 | 51.5% | 0.93 | 4.03 | 5.15 | Rockies | 85 | 81 | 98 |
| David Price | Red Sox | 6 | 3.94 | 6.1 | 41.1% | 1.12 | 4.05 | 4.08 | Phillies | 89 | 86 | 105 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | -6.4 | 4.87 | 5.2 | 38.4% | 0.91 | 5.41 | 3.51 | Padres | 94 | 88 | 62 |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | 2.3 | 4.87 | 5.6 | 38.6% | 0.95 | 5.24 | 3.84 | Blue Jays | 97 | 103 | 123 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | -2.7 | 4.72 | 4.8 | 36.7% | 0.91 | 4.08 | 4.47 | Giants | 81 | 89 | 85 |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | 0.5 | 4.41 | 6.3 | 41.2% | 1.04 | 4.78 | 4.30 | Indians | 97 | 106 | 108 |
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | 6.2 | 3.67 | 5.4 | 31.1% | 0.90 | 3.84 | 4.99 | Dodgers | 107 | 111 | 91 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 0.8 | 3.66 | 6.1 | 42.8% | 0.91 | 3.61 | 2.20 | Mariners | 102 | 102 | 109 |
| James Paxton | Mariners | -1.4 | 3.25 | 5.9 | 42.6% | 0.91 | 3.17 | Astros | 116 | 117 | 64 | |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 4.2 | 4.68 | 5.7 | 39.5% | 0.99 | 4.94 | 4.66 | Marlins | 88 | 88 | 66 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | -5.1 | 3.64 | 5.2 | 39.6% | 0.90 | 3.48 | 2.84 | Brewers | 94 | 96 | 108 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | -4 | 4.68 | 5.5 | 29.5% | 0.95 | 5.16 | Athletics | 88 | 107 | 142 | |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | 2.8 | 4.99 | 5.8 | 49.2% | 1.00 | 4.67 | 4.89 | Diamondbacks | 92 | 101 | 118 |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 0.7 | 3.54 | 5.5 | 41.3% | 1.00 | 3.88 | 4.26 | Rangers | 85 | 101 | 113 |
| Shane Bieber | Indians | 5.8 | 3.60 | 5.6 | 46.1% | 1.04 | 4.22 | 4.74 | Twins | 100 | 97 | 90 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | -1.8 | 4.13 | 5.7 | 42.5% | 0.93 | 4.06 | 4.19 | Cardinals | 91 | 103 | 88 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 0.5 | 4.67 | 4.9 | 38.5% | 0.99 | 5.48 | 5.21 | Braves | 87 | 109 | 87 |
Carlos Martinez has had issues with consistency this season, most recently allowing six runs at Wrigley last time out. Strikeouts, walks, even ground ball rates seem to rocket and plummet from start to start. The overall results are a near league average strikeout rate and near 50% ground ball rate, but he also owns the lowest aEV (84.8 mph) by nearly a full mile per hour and lowest rate of Barrels/BBE (3.6%) by a half point. You can’t argue with a matchup that pits the Rockies (81 wRC+, 23.5 K% vs RHP) against a RHP in a negative run environment either.
Derek Holland has had just two starts over the last four weeks (12.1 IP – 2 ER – 1 HR – 1 BB – 12 K – 46 BF), while working mostly in relief. While those two starts came in extremely negative run environments, they were against good offenses in the Mariners and Cubs. In total, he hasn’t even been that bad this year. While the park helps, the estimators are fine as well and his 24.1 K% is easily a career high, as is his 10.7 SwStr%. It might be interesting to see what’s going on here, but while Fangraphs cites increased curveball usage (21.5%), which started last season (23.8%), Statcast has him throwing one only 12.3% of the time this year. They think it’s the slider usage that’s increased from 12% to 23.5% with a .303 xwOBA and 41.4 Whiff% this year. It makes some sense because he’s dominated LHBs (.221 wOBA), though even the .341 wOBA against RHBs is more than a 50 points improvement. He moves from one great park to another one tonight and while the Padres have a bit of thump against LHP (14.8 HR/FB), that comes with an 88 wRC+ and 24.9 K%, along with a board low 62 wRC+ and 22 K-BB% over the last week (despite a 24 HR/FB).
Eric Lauer stuck at Citi Field last time out (6 ER – 4 IP) after stinking at home against the Cubs (5 ER – 2 IP). I’m not going to pretend this is about anything other than a useful strikeout rate (19.2% for the season with an 11.1 SwStr% over the last month) and a decent matchup against a banged up offense (Giants 81 wRC+, 16.7 K-BB%, 10 HR/FB on the road, 89 wRC+, 10.8 HR/FB vs LHP) in a great park at a low price.
Freddy Peralta allowed two HRs and seven total runs to the Nationals last time out, but still struck out seven of 27 batters. It’s been perplexing that he throws a 90.7 mph fastball 77.1% of the time(Statcast), seemingly all over the place and had been wildly successful doing so. One thought is that great extension allowed his effective velocity to play up, so I went with it (look at the Statcast page, nobody else is even close), still suspecting the league might catch up. His two most recent starts were the first two with a single digit SwStr%. He’s had a hard hit rate at least 40% in each of his last four starts, while being below that mark in each of his first four. He faces a good offense, but the most negative run environment on the board, neutralizes the matchup.
Gerrit Cole has struck out 28 of his last 71 batters, so that aspect of his early season barrage seems to have returned at least. He’s thrown exactly 18 innings (three runs) over that span, so the workload isn’t the same, but he did record a seventh inning out for just the second time in nine starts last time out. He faces a decent and difficult (19.9 K% vs RHP) offense, but does so in a great park.
Kenta Maeda has not reached 100 pitches in any of his last five starts, but has completed seven innings in three of them. The word is efficiency. He has a 30.7 K-BB% over this span that stretches a little over a month and has always been at least a quality contact manager. While the Brewers have some dangerous bats, they have been an overall average offense at best with a split high 25.1 K% vs RHP in addition to the most negative run environment on the board tonight.
Robbie Ray is the Adam Dunn of starting pitchers. Strikeouts (30.8%), walks (11%) and hard contact (89.8 mph aEV). He’s walked just one batter in each of his last two starts, but has also only struck out eight of 49 batters. He’s allowed multiple HRs in three of his last five starts, but none in the other two. You never know what you’re going to get, but the upside is certainly there. The Rangers have a lowered 23.3 K% vs LHP, but they lose the DH along with the park downgrade tonight.
Shane Bieber was lit up by the Pirates for seven runs last time out, but still has an 18.5 K-BB% through eight starts that his lowest mark at any level. The problem, of course, is contact. His 89.9 mph aEV is highest on the board with particular issues against LHBs (.444 wOBA, 53.6 Hard%). This is occasionally an issue with these guys who arrive on the scene with exceptional control. They’re over the plate too much. That’s not to say that there isn’t any upside here and the Twins are a very marginal matchup, who just traded away one of their top bats from the left side.
Tyler Anderson has struck out just 10 of his last 50 batters, but has pitched into the eighth inning in three of his last five starts and has allowed a total of five runs over his last four starts (four earned), all at home. Gone are the ground balls, but he’s missing bats at an above average rate and has been an excellent contact manager (27.7% 95+ mph EV is best on the board, as is his .218 xwOBA over the last month). The Cardinals have a dangerous 17.5 HR/FB vs LHP, but it’s an otherwise marginal matchup with a significant park upgrade.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is usually extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm.
League AVG (.290 BABIP – 72.8 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Aaron Nola (.262 – 79.2% – 6.7) may be due for slight regression in a few spots, but he’s a damn good pitcher, who I hate placing here, especially with a major price drop. Perhaps if it were in Philly, where the Red Sox lose the DH…but this is not only, by far, the worst park adjusted matchup on the board, it may even be the only really bad one.
Edwin Jackson (.232 – 71.9% – 13.2) has not been terrible for the A’s, but got blown up in Texas last time out and has a fairly marginal park adjusted matchup against the Jays tonight.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
James Paxton is an elite lefty with a reverse split at a cost now below $10K against a banged up offense in a great park. At or near full strength, the Astros are one of the top offenses in baseball, especially against LHP, but with two of their top four bats down, they have just a team 64 wRC+ over the last seven days. It’s a damn shame we can’t trust Paxton’s back though. He through a bullpen and proclaimed himself fit over the weekend, but he did the same before he was scratched and placed on the DL before his last expected start. He faced just five batters before leaving the game on the 12th, so his last outing anywhere was really on the 7th. This should probably go extremely well now that I’m finally off him though.
Julio Teheran has missed bats at a slightly above average rate and is reasonably priced against a poor Miami offense (88 wRC+, 15.9 K-BB% vs RHP). This is a pitcher I expect some people to be one, who I am fading because he has a allowed 14 HRs over his last 12 starts with a 12.2 BB%. Marginal upside (more than six strikeouts just twice over this span, but double digits both times) with some blow up potential (at least four runs in six of those starts).
David Price threw 6.1 shutout innings last time out, has a 26.9 K% over the last month, and is facing the questionable offense of the Phillies (86 wRC+, 10.7 HR/FB, 6.4 Hard-Soft% vs LHP), but he does so in a terrible park, while the Phillies strike out a bit less often vs LHP as well (23.1%) with a 10.6 BB%. Price had also allowed 11 HRs over five starts previous to shutting down Detroit. He has a .425 xwOBA over the last month (highest by anyone with more than one start) and a hard hit rate above 45% in three of his last four. He’s not that expensive and may even be popular tonight, but I think there’s more than enough justification to fade him.
Wei-Yin Chen is extremely cheap on DK, but is not at home and really doesn’t have any upside against a good offense vs LHP.
Ervin Santana was unimpressive in his season debut and the Indians are probably the second worst park adjusted matchup on the board tonight.
Marco Estrada last faced more than three major league batters more than a month ago and struck out just one of 24 batters in that start. He faced 14 AAA batters six days ago, allowing two HRs. The A’s have been on fire since the break and have the top team wRC+ on the board over the last week.
Peripherals (Pitcher)
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | L2 Yrs | 26.2% | 7.2% | 10.0% | 7.3% | Season | 26.0% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 4.3% | Road | 22.7% | 8.1% | 8.9% | 10.5% | L14Days | 23.8% | 9.5% | 11.1% | 7.1% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Yrs | 23.8% | 9.2% | 12.5% | 13.4% | Season | 20.9% | 11.3% | 5.8% | 17.3% | Home | 22.7% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 8.4% | L14Days | 8.3% | 4.2% | 20.0% | 33.4% |
| David Price | Red Sox | L2 Yrs | 23.3% | 6.8% | 12.5% | 13.4% | Season | 24.0% | 7.4% | 13.7% | 14.3% | Home | 24.7% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 12.3% | L14Days | 20.0% | 4.0% | 50.0% | |
| Derek Holland | Giants | L2 Yrs | 19.4% | 10.1% | 15.2% | 21.2% | Season | 24.1% | 8.6% | 12.1% | 21.5% | Road | 17.5% | 10.4% | 17.3% | 21.6% | L14Days | 23.1% | 3.9% | 16.7% | 23.5% |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | L2 Yrs | 18.0% | 8.7% | 16.2% | 13.4% | Season | 19.0% | 7.0% | 13.2% | 10.6% | Home | 20.5% | 9.4% | 19.2% | 8.3% | L14Days | 22.7% | 6.8% | 30.0% | 22.5% |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | L2 Yrs | 19.2% | 9.3% | 13.3% | 25.5% | Season | 19.2% | 9.3% | 13.3% | 25.5% | Home | 19.8% | 6.6% | 17.9% | 31.1% | L14Days | 23.5% | 11.8% | 16.7% | 14.2% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Yrs | 20.7% | 7.4% | 11.2% | 7.5% | Season | 21.7% | 4.4% | 18.7% | Home | 19.6% | 7.8% | 13.9% | 5.6% | L14Days | 21.7% | 4.4% | 18.7% | ||
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | L2 Yrs | 33.1% | 12.8% | 8.7% | 24.2% | Season | 33.1% | 12.8% | 8.7% | 24.2% | Road | 33.7% | 13.9% | 8.3% | 26.9% | L14Days | 25.9% | 14.8% | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | L2 Yrs | 26.9% | 7.5% | 14.3% | 10.1% | Season | 35.3% | 8.7% | 11.4% | 16.2% | Road | 27.6% | 7.4% | 15.3% | 12.8% | L14Days | 37.5% | 4.2% | 28.6% | |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Yrs | 29.2% | 6.1% | 10.1% | 14.1% | Season | 32.2% | 6.9% | 13.4% | 17.4% | Home | 30.8% | 7.9% | 11.3% | 9.9% | L14Days | ||||
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Yrs | 20.0% | 9.1% | 13.5% | 13.1% | Season | 21.9% | 11.5% | 16.5% | 21.6% | Home | 19.5% | 10.4% | 14.8% | 13.4% | L14Days | 19.2% | 10.6% | 22.2% | 34.3% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | L2 Yrs | 26.5% | 7.0% | 13.1% | 11.2% | Season | 29.4% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 20.3% | Home | 27.8% | 6.6% | 9.9% | 10.9% | L14Days | 27.6% | 22.2% | 10.0% | |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Yrs | 21.1% | 8.3% | 10.6% | 7.5% | Season | 18.6% | 6.6% | 10.3% | Road | 20.5% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 6.9% | L14Days | |||||
| Martin Perez | Rangers | L2 Yrs | 14.0% | 8.0% | 13.2% | 18.3% | Season | 12.8% | 9.7% | 19.6% | 30.7% | Road | 13.2% | 6.7% | 14.1% | 21.5% | L14Days | 15.7% | 9.8% | 20.0% | 36.9% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | L2 Yrs | 31.8% | 10.6% | 16.9% | 25.2% | Season | 30.8% | 11.0% | 19.7% | 29.3% | Home | 29.7% | 11.5% | 24.7% | 31.7% | L14Days | 16.3% | 4.1% | 16.7% | 13.2% |
| Shane Bieber | Indians | L2 Yrs | 22.6% | 4.1% | 12.8% | 38.3% | Season | 22.6% | 4.1% | 12.8% | 38.3% | Road | 16.9% | 3.9% | 16.7% | 40.7% | L14Days | 16.7% | 40.0% | 80.0% | |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | L2 Yrs | 22.2% | 7.5% | 14.9% | 6.8% | Season | 22.7% | 8.3% | 13.1% | 7.7% | Road | 21.9% | 7.1% | 17.8% | 11.4% | L14Days | 20.0% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 5.5% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Yrs | 18.3% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 13.9% | Season | 17.7% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 18.6% | Road | 14.3% | 8.2% | 12.8% | 7.0% | L14Days | 16.0% | 12.0% | 25.0% | 16.6% |
Peripherals (Opponent)
| OpTm | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% | Split | K% | BB% | HR/FB | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | Home | 18.6% | 8.4% | 13.7% | 16.8% | RH | 18.7% | 8.5% | 14.6% | 19.9% | L7Days | 22.6% | 9.6% | 15.3% | 11.1% |
| Rockies | Road | 23.8% | 8.0% | 14.5% | 17.2% | RH | 23.5% | 8.3% | 14.3% | 14.8% | L7Days | 23.6% | 7.3% | 15.4% | 1.6% |
| Phillies | Road | 25.7% | 9.7% | 12.3% | 8.2% | LH | 23.1% | 10.6% | 10.7% | 6.4% | L7Days | 28.0% | 6.0% | 24.0% | 9.8% |
| Padres | Home | 25.0% | 9.1% | 12.7% | 20.6% | LH | 24.9% | 8.1% | 14.8% | 19.1% | L7Days | 25.5% | 5.8% | 9.3% | 4.9% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.9% | 8.9% | 14.5% | 18.4% | RH | 22.9% | 8.9% | 14.5% | 16.4% | L7Days | 21.0% | 6.2% | 13.2% | 7.6% |
| Giants | Road | 24.3% | 7.6% | 10.6% | 18.3% | LH | 21.2% | 7.7% | 10.8% | 19.4% | L7Days | 22.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.2% |
| Indians | Road | 20.3% | 7.8% | 12.3% | 20.4% | RH | 19.9% | 8.5% | 14.2% | 25.4% | L7Days | 12.7% | 7.0% | 15.2% | 21.7% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.6% | 9.1% | 14.7% | 17.1% | RH | 21.9% | 9.8% | 14.9% | 18.4% | L7Days | 25.4% | 11.5% | 15.3% | 25.7% |
| Mariners | Home | 21.5% | 6.7% | 13.0% | 8.8% | RH | 19.9% | 6.8% | 13.7% | 15.0% | L7Days | 15.4% | 6.4% | 18.4% | 24.3% |
| Astros | Road | 19.4% | 9.2% | 12.8% | 21.7% | LH | 20.1% | 8.9% | 11.6% | 17.3% | L7Days | 21.9% | 9.0% | 13.3% | 12.3% |
| Marlins | Road | 24.4% | 7.5% | 12.2% | 13.8% | RH | 23.0% | 7.1% | 11.4% | 16.7% | L7Days | 21.0% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 20.8% |
| Brewers | Road | 23.1% | 7.7% | 15.9% | 12.6% | RH | 25.1% | 8.3% | 16.5% | 17.4% | L7Days | 19.7% | 6.7% | 15.7% | 21.3% |
| Athletics | Home | 22.8% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 26.1% | RH | 22.0% | 8.5% | 13.2% | 23.8% | L7Days | 20.3% | 10.0% | 17.1% | 20.7% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.7% | 9.8% | 12.1% | 25.3% | LH | 23.0% | 9.3% | 14.6% | 24.7% | L7Days | 19.6% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 17.4% |
| Rangers | Road | 25.8% | 8.2% | 13.2% | 16.1% | LH | 23.3% | 9.0% | 13.7% | 16.9% | L7Days | 27.5% | 6.7% | 20.7% | 18.9% |
| Twins | Home | 21.8% | 9.5% | 10.0% | 20.7% | RH | 21.2% | 9.1% | 10.9% | 20.7% | L7Days | 22.9% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 9.9% |
| Cardinals | Home | 20.5% | 7.7% | 12.4% | 23.7% | LH | 22.1% | 10.0% | 17.5% | 21.0% | L7Days | 22.3% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 18.9% |
| Braves | Home | 20.7% | 8.2% | 10.0% | 19.7% | LH | 20.2% | 8.2% | 15.0% | 21.1% | L7Days | 21.8% | 6.8% | 13.6% | 17.2% |
K/SwStr Chart (2018 LG AVG – 21.5 K% – 10.1 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 26.0% | 11.7% | 2.22 | 29.6% | 13.0% | 2.28 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 20.9% | 9.7% | 2.15 | 16.0% | 9.9% | 1.62 |
| David Price | Red Sox | 24.0% | 8.9% | 2.70 | 26.9% | 10.0% | 2.69 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 24.1% | 10.8% | 2.23 | 31.6% | 15.3% | 2.07 |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | 19.0% | 8.4% | 2.26 | 17.1% | 8.2% | 2.09 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 19.2% | 8.4% | 2.29 | 18.8% | 11.1% | 1.69 |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | 21.7% | 6.2% | 3.50 | 21.7% | 6.2% | 3.50 |
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | 33.1% | 12.3% | 2.69 | 25.0% | 9.7% | 2.58 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 35.3% | 14.0% | 2.52 | 32.0% | 15.2% | 2.11 |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 32.2% | 13.8% | 2.33 | 33.9% | 17.8% | 1.90 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 21.9% | 11.0% | 1.99 | 23.3% | 12.9% | 1.81 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 29.4% | 14.5% | 2.03 | 35.0% | 17.7% | 1.98 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 18.6% | 9.9% | 1.88 | 33.3% | 8.3% | 4.01 |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | 12.8% | 5.7% | 2.25 | 15.6% | 6.6% | 2.36 |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 30.8% | 13.1% | 2.35 | 25.4% | 12.9% | 1.97 |
| Shane Bieber | Indians | 22.6% | 11.3% | 2.00 | 18.5% | 10.1% | 1.83 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 22.7% | 11.6% | 1.96 | 27.1% | 9.8% | 2.77 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 17.7% | 8.2% | 2.16 | 22.0% | 8.2% | 2.68 |
Carlos Martinez had a 2.2 SwStr% against the Cubs last time out, but it had been at least 11% in six of seven previous starts.
Tyler Anderson has a K/SwStr less than two for the season, so it’s really strange that his strikeout rate would shoot up with a two plus point drop in his SwStr% over the last month. It seems a smaller sample fluke with the AS break and some up and down numbers in individual starts.
No season outliers with more than one start. Believe that’s the first time we’ve seen that this season?
ERA Estimators Chart (2018 LG AVG – 4.21 ERA – 4.2 SIERA – 4.16 xFIP – 4.23 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 2.42 | 3.50 | 1.08 | 2.42 | 0.90 | 2.71 | 0.29 | 2.35 | -0.07 | 2.16 | 3.11 | 0.95 | 3.2 | 1.04 | 2.21 | 0.05 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 3.39 | 4.62 | 1.23 | 3.39 | 1.24 | 3.83 | 0.44 | 5.61 | 2.22 | 3.91 | 4.27 | 0.36 | 4.13 | 0.22 | 3.69 | -0.22 |
| David Price | Red Sox | 4.17 | 3.92 | -0.25 | 4.17 | -0.04 | 4.29 | 0.12 | 4.36 | 0.19 | 6.43 | 3.10 | -3.33 | 3.6 | -2.83 | 6.59 | 0.16 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 3.92 | 4.04 | 0.12 | 3.92 | 0.16 | 4.00 | 0.08 | 3.94 | 0.02 | 2.74 | 2.85 | 0.11 | 2.81 | 0.07 | 2.73 | -0.01 |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | 3.86 | 4.47 | 0.61 | 3.86 | 0.49 | 4.42 | 0.56 | 5.55 | 1.69 | 4.34 | 4.89 | 0.55 | 4.79 | 0.45 | 5.17 | 0.83 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 5.29 | 4.71 | -0.58 | 5.29 | -0.72 | 4.67 | -0.62 | 6.12 | 0.83 | 5.84 | 4.47 | -1.37 | 4.41 | -1.43 | 4.26 | -1.58 |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | 5.40 | 4.30 | -1.10 | 5.40 | -0.41 | 2.37 | -3.03 | 9.27 | 3.87 | 5.40 | 4.30 | -1.10 | 4.99 | -0.41 | 2.37 | -3.03 |
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | 3.74 | 3.67 | -0.07 | 3.74 | 0.20 | 3.40 | -0.34 | 4.01 | 0.27 | 6.10 | 4.92 | -1.18 | 5.36 | -0.74 | 5.10 | -1.00 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 2.54 | 2.91 | 0.37 | 2.54 | 0.50 | 2.89 | 0.35 | 2.12 | -0.42 | 2.48 | 3.42 | 0.94 | 3.32 | 0.84 | 2.41 | -0.07 |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 3.70 | 2.99 | -0.71 | 3.70 | -0.64 | 3.17 | -0.53 | 2.61 | -1.09 | 4.02 | 2.62 | -1.40 | 2.74 | -1.28 | 3.55 | -0.47 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 4.42 | 4.68 | 0.26 | 4.42 | 0.30 | 5.27 | 0.85 | 4.43 | 0.01 | 4.13 | 4.48 | 0.35 | 4.23 | 0.10 | 5.07 | 0.94 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 3.27 | 3.40 | 0.13 | 3.27 | 0.03 | 2.94 | -0.33 | 2.36 | -0.91 | 2.81 | 2.51 | -0.30 | 2.61 | -0.20 | 2.66 | -0.15 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 4.72 | 4.92 | 0.20 | 4.72 | 0.51 | 4.62 | -0.10 | 6.41 | 1.69 | 54.00 | 7.73 | -46.27 | 11.09 | -42.91 | 45.17 | -8.83 |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | 7.08 | 5.34 | -1.74 | 7.08 | -1.74 | 6.36 | -0.72 | 8.66 | 1.58 | 3.93 | 4.79 | 0.86 | 4.35 | 0.42 | 4.42 | 0.49 |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 4.90 | 3.63 | -1.27 | 4.90 | -1.17 | 4.65 | -0.25 | 2.91 | -1.99 | 6.00 | 3.88 | -2.12 | 4.04 | -1.96 | 5.65 | -0.35 |
| Shane Bieber | Indians | 4.80 | 3.60 | -1.20 | 4.80 | -1.21 | 3.61 | -1.19 | 4.16 | -0.64 | 7.84 | 4.20 | -3.64 | 4.17 | -3.67 | 4.62 | -3.22 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 3.57 | 4.18 | 0.61 | 3.57 | 0.58 | 4.21 | 0.64 | 4.00 | 0.43 | 1.02 | 3.67 | 2.65 | 3.61 | 2.59 | 2.85 | 1.83 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 5.65 | 4.90 | -0.75 | 5.65 | -0.69 | 4.83 | -0.82 | 5.90 | 0.25 | 4.43 | 3.95 | -0.48 | 3.65 | -0.78 | 3.34 | -1.09 |
Carlos Martinez has a 5.8 HR/FB and 16.3% of his runs allowed have been unearned.
Eric Lauer has a .361 BABIP, but I’m not even going to venture below because the 28.1 LD% is easily worst on the board (more than one start), though the optimist would see an 86.9 mph aEV and 5.6% Barrels/BBE.
Robbie Ray has a .326 BABIP and 19.7 HR/FB. Hard contact problems though.
Shane Bieber has a .378 BABIP.
Tyler Anderson has a .264 BABIP.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .290 BABIP – 43.2 GB% – 21.2 LD% – 10.1 IFFB% – 86.4 Z-Contact% – 36.3 Z-O-Swing%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | LD% | IFFB% | Z-contact% | Z-O-Swing% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 0.297 | 0.262 | -0.035 | 50.6% | 18.2% | 13.3% | 83.0% | 31.3% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 0.289 | 0.293 | 0.004 | 49.4% | 18.8% | 14.0% | 87.4% | 32.9% |
| David Price | Red Sox | 0.292 | 0.288 | -0.004 | 39.5% | 19.4% | 13.0% | 86.2% | 36.7% |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 0.296 | 0.292 | -0.004 | 37.8% | 22.8% | 12.9% | 84.7% | 40.0% |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | 0.276 | 0.232 | -0.044 | 37.6% | 24.8% | 15.8% | 92.0% | 42.2% |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 0.306 | 0.361 | 0.055 | 36.7% | 28.1% | 8.9% | 86.1% | 40.8% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | 0.311 | 0.438 | 0.127 | 18.8% | 31.3% | 12.5% | 100.0% | 32.8% |
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | 0.278 | 0.207 | -0.071 | 31.1% | 17.8% | 6.5% | 81.3% | 35.1% |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 0.280 | 0.261 | -0.019 | 35.1% | 21.8% | 13.8% | 79.0% | 37.6% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 0.295 | 0.293 | -0.002 | 38.1% | 20.8% | 10.1% | 81.7% | 36.0% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 0.278 | 0.227 | -0.051 | 40.1% | 19.2% | 10.7% | 85.0% | 36.9% |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 0.288 | 0.309 | 0.021 | 39.4% | 25.0% | 6.0% | 83.9% | 34.8% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 0.309 | 0.292 | -0.017 | 25.7% | 20.0% | 15.8% | 83.4% | 43.6% |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | 0.303 | 0.383 | 0.080 | 49.0% | 20.1% | 4.3% | 93.8% | 40.8% |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 0.283 | 0.326 | 0.043 | 37.2% | 21.6% | 11.5% | 84.9% | 34.1% |
| Shane Bieber | Indians | 0.295 | 0.378 | 0.083 | 46.1% | 20.6% | 4.3% | 85.1% | 31.7% |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 0.304 | 0.264 | -0.040 | 39.0% | 21.9% | 9.2% | 84.5% | 40.8% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 0.293 | 0.304 | 0.011 | 37.4% | 21.5% | 11.9% | 86.8% | 35.4% |
Aaron Nola has an incredible BABIP profile despite the omission from our wish list tonight. Only pitcher on the board much better than league average in Z-Contact% and Z-O-Swing%.
Freddy Peralta has a .207 BABIP and I don’t know how it doesn’t affect his ERA/estimators gap. The 69.3 LOB% is not that low. The profile is fine, the defense is great, but it’s a .207 BABIP.
Robbie Ray has a .326 BABIP and while the profile is clean, the defense is fine and contact authority doesn’t really correlate strongly with BABIP, he does have a .320 career rate.
Shane Bieber has hard contact issues (especially against LHBs) and hasn’t generated a lot of popups, but the profile is otherwise clean. Expect some positive regression here.
Tyler Anderson is the rare Rockies’ pitcher with a low BABIP. It’s not that it’s an unsustainably low number and the profile is fine, but not exceptional. It’s just really hard to stay much under .300 in that park.
StatCast Chart (2018 LG AVG – .314 wOBA)
All stats from BaseballSavant.com.
| Player | Team | xwOBA | wOBA-xwOBA | xwOBA H/A | wOBA-xwOBA H/A | xwOBA L30 Days | wOBA-xwOBA L30 Days | Effective Velocity | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH ExV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Nola | Phillies | 0.263 | -0.019 | 0.293 | -0.006 | 0.239 | -0.011 | 0.200 | 85.7 | 4.3 | 31.100 | 347 |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | 0.312 | -0.008 | 0.286 | 0.004 | 0.315 | -0.007 | -1.700 | 84.8 | 3.6 | 30.600 | 278 |
| David Price | Red Sox | 0.341 | -0.024 | 0.315 | -0.037 | 0.425 | -0.027 | -0.800 | 88.1 | 8.8 | 36.300 | 320 |
| Derek Holland | Giants | 0.349 | -0.035 | 0.390 | -0.010 | 0.336 | -0.057 | -0.900 | 88 | 7.9 | 37.100 | 302 |
| Edwin Jackson | Athletics | 0.345 | -0.055 | 0.345 | -0.002 | 0.361 | -0.065 | -0.200 | 86.4 | 8.7 | 33.700 | 104 |
| Eric Lauer | Padres | 0.351 | 0.020 | 0.349 | 0.018 | 0.332 | 0.022 | -0.700 | 86.9 | 5.6 | 33.000 | 267 |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | 0.432 | -0.055 | 0.314 | -0.002 | 0.432 | -0.055 | -0.400 | ||||
| Freddy Peralta | Brewers | 0.304 | -0.051 | 0.320 | -0.054 | 0.383 | -0.050 | 1.500 | 86.8 | 6.6 | 38.500 | 91 |
| Gerrit Cole | Astros | 0.294 | -0.038 | 0.326 | -0.022 | 0.297 | -0.008 | -0.600 | 88.2 | 7.6 | 41.400 | 290 |
| James Paxton | Mariners | 0.302 | -0.021 | 0.268 | -0.006 | 0.278 | -0.012 | -0.400 | 89.6 | 8.9 | 42.100 | 292 |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | 0.345 | -0.028 | 0.354 | -0.017 | 0.343 | -0.006 | -0.500 | 88.7 | 7.9 | 40.400 | 302 |
| Kenta Maeda | Dodgers | 0.296 | -0.009 | 0.282 | -0.009 | 0.271 | -0.018 | -0.800 | 86.5 | 6.2 | 31.500 | 241 |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | 0.349 | -0.006 | 0.320 | 0.018 | 0.268 | 0.643 | -1.800 | 87.3 | 10.7 | 36.300 | 281 |
| Martin Perez | Rangers | 0.389 | 0.041 | 0.348 | 0.000 | 0.313 | 0.051 | -0.900 | 89.6 | 6.7 | 43.300 | 150 |
| Robbie Ray | Diamondbacks | 0.325 | 0.016 | 0.352 | -0.002 | 0.336 | 0.050 | -0.300 | 89.8 | 9.3 | 40.700 | 150 |
| Shane Bieber | Indians | 0.339 | 0.021 | 0.373 | 0.003 | 0.402 | 0.000 | 0.100 | 89.9 | 7.8 | 37.600 | 141 |
| Tyler Anderson | Rockies | 0.288 | 0.012 | 0.305 | 0.018 | 0.218 | -0.012 | -0.200 | 86.1 | 4.1 | 27.700 | 339 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | 0.313 | 0.031 | 0.336 | 0.035 | 0.276 | 0.007 | -0.500 | 86.4 | 4.4 | 32.100 | 252 |
Carlos Martinez may have a HR/FB rate that’s unsustainable, but he has been the best contact generator on the board to this point.
Freddy Peralta has had a spike in xwOBA, but not actual wOBA over the last month.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top few. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
It feels as if about two-thirds of the board is bunched together in a gray area tonight. Tier separation is very difficult as are some omissions. Even though we have top and second tier values, it doesn’t really feel like those guys are far separated from the fourth tier guys tonight, so take those tier choices with a larger grain of salt than usual. There is no clear great value tonight, despite a lot of strong pitchers. The good news is that the top arms don’t seem to be over-priced tonight (probably because they’re so good it may not even be possible).
Value Tier One
Kenta Maeda (2) has been extremely efficient, finding a way to work deeper into games without an increased pitch count and still racking up the Ks. He’s in a high upside spot in a great park tonight and barely breaks $10K on DraftKings.
Value Tier Two
Robbie Ray (3) is a high upside, high risk pitcher in a marginal spot tonight, but the cost seems too cheap (less than $8.5K on either site).
Value Tier Three
Eric Lauer is just really cheap on DraftKings ($4.2K). Don’t use him on FanDuel, but there really doesn’t seem to be anything else very reasonable below $7K on DK.
Tyler Anderson has been pitching well at home and often going deep into games. He faces a dangerous offense tonight for a LHP, but he does so with a massive park upgrade.
Derek Holland has not been bad this year. Of course, the park helps and while he’s not home tonight, he’s in a great spot in San Diego and is not expensive.
Carlos Martinez hasn’t pitched up to expectations and this would seem like a boom or bust spot considering his performance this season and drop in strikeouts this season, but he’s less than $8K in a great spot.
Shane Bieber has an 18.5 K-BB% and while I’m probably using Minnesota lefties against him, it’s not like there’s more than one or two bats to be concerned with here. He should see some BABIP improvement and costs less than $8K.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Gerrit Cole (1) has magnificent rate stats over the last month that can’t be ignored. He’s easily the most expensive pitcher on the board though, and not in a high upside matchup. The expectation is probably closer to six innings than seven at this point too, but one can hope.
Freddy Peralta is probably not someone I’d be using a lot of tonight because there have been red flags in his profile since the beginning, but I’ll be honest and admit that I’m still not entirely sure how all this works, so maybe others like the price here. I feel like there’s a decent chance I’ll regret even listing him at some point today.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.