Advanced Stats – Pitching: Monday, July 31st
While the A’s insist on torturing us by listing Sonny Gray tonight, the good news is today should be the last day we have to worry about trade deadline scratches. Perhaps he’ll even be gone by the time this article is posted today. As of now on Sunday night and then again Monday morning, he’s still listed (but the Mets have just traded Addison Reed to Boston). As daily fantasy players, we should probably be hoping he stays in place today because he’s one of the top arms on a skimpy board.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Editor’s Note: Sonny Gray has been traded. Paul Blackburn is expected to start in his place for Oakland tonight.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | -0.7 | 4.65 | 6.15 | 47.6% | 0.94 | 4.82 | 3.22 | HOU | 122 | 132 | 109 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | -5.8 | 3.68 | 5.45 | 53.2% | 0.94 | 3.59 | 3.13 | TAM | 96 | 108 | 82 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 3.5 | 4.09 | 6.44 | 48.9% | 1.11 | 4.22 | 4.87 | SEA | 95 | 99 | 96 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 5.8 | 3.96 | 6.06 | 37.6% | 1.02 | 4.18 | 5.06 | BAL | 99 | 91 | 86 |
| Doug Fister | BOS | 7 | 4.88 | 5.54 | 45.8% | 1.13 | 5.07 | 5.79 | CLE | 101 | 107 | 146 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 6.6 | 4.22 | 6.09 | 50.5% | 1.11 | 4.45 | 3.82 | TEX | 105 | 97 | 122 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.1 | 4.08 | 5.78 | 46.8% | 0.94 | 4.28 | 4.45 | MIA | 89 | 100 | 142 |
| James Shields | CHW | 0.2 | 5.02 | 5.57 | 40.4% | 0.98 | 5.31 | 5.83 | TOR | 90 | 90 | 110 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 4.1 | 4.99 | 5.17 | 43.5% | 0.94 | 5.2 | 5.07 | WAS | 104 | 110 | 115 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 1.1 | 3.64 | 5.65 | 49.4% | 1.01 | 3.39 | 3.2 | DET | 92 | 96 | 91 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | -2.8 | 4.48 | 5.91 | 32.5% | 0.98 | 4.69 | 6.23 | CHW | 88 | 86 | 77 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | -0.9 | 5.15 | 5.08 | 39.8% | 0.93 | 5.65 | 5.09 | OAK | 110 | 102 | 84 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 2.8 | 4.15 | 6.37 | 49.5% | 1.01 | 3.95 | 4.13 | NYY | 119 | 115 | 115 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 0 | 4.51 | 4.83 | 38.4% | 1.13 | 4.47 | 4.05 | BOS | 88 | 88 | 67 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | -2.5 | 4.36 | 5.61 | 39.9% | 0.96 | 4.18 | 4.09 | PHI | 97 | 89 | 117 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 4.1 | 4.39 | 5.36 | 40.0% | 0.96 | 3.04 | 3.32 | ATL | 90 | 87 | 91 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | -12.2 | 4.14 | 5.75 | 53.4% | 0.93 | 3.78 | 2.84 | SFO | 83 | 80 | 86 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | -4.6 | 4.64 | 5.36 | 48.7% | 1.02 | 4.71 | 3.84 | KAN | 88 | 91 | 112 |
Charlie Morton threw seven shutout innings, striking out nine Phillies in his last start, the second time he’s struck out at least that many in three starts and the third time he’s pitches as many innings this year. The strikeout rate is fantastic (26.1%) even if the run prevention has been a bit hit or miss. The ground ball remains barely above half his balls in play (50.7%) with solid contact management (85.9 mph aEV, 5% Barrels/BBE), which keeps the ball in the yard (10 HRs despite a 16.1 HR/FB). That’s good news tonight hosting the Rays (17.9 HR/FB), which is also a high strikeout spot (25.1% vs RHP).
Danny Duffy has struck out exactly four in each of his last three starts and four or less in five of his last six, but has had at least a 9.9 SwStr% in four of those. In fact, in his last start, his 93 mph average velocity was his highest since returning from the DL, even though he only throws his fastball around half the time now. He’s struggled against RHBs (36.3 GB%, .330 wOBA), but has been a solid contact manager overall (86.2 mph aEV, 4.6% Barrels/BBE, 29.3% 95+ mph EV) and the Baltimore RH bats have struggled against LHP (team 17.4 K-BB% vs LHP). The park is a concern if he’s going to generate that many fly balls though.
Felix Hernandez struggled in his last start, allowing four runs to the Red Sox with four strikeouts and was unable to complete six innings coming off his best start of the season. While he’s generated just an 86.7 mph aEV, his 9.8% Barrels/BBE is the highest on the board and he has certainly struggled with the long ball this year (23.3 HR/FB). While the Rangers have a 23.8 K% vs RHP, they also have a 17.5 HR/FB.
Luis Severino has gone seven innings in four straight and now in 12 of 20 starts this year with a 21.8 K-BB% that’s eighth in baseball along with a 51.8 GB% that’s also eighth among qualifiers. While contact management has been average, he’s done a decent job of avoiding barrels (5.6% of BBEs) and the Detroit Tigers have now traded away two of their top bats this season and the two biggest reasons for their 40.5 Hard% vs RHP. There are still some formidable bats in the lineup, though you could easily consider than an neutral matchup here as their full season numbers on the road or vs RHP are not even all that terrific.
Michael Fulmer has seen a precipitous drop in his strikeout rate as the season has evolved, but did strike out six of 31 Royals in his last start and does have a SwStr rate above 11% in each of his last two starts (both against the Royals). He has gone at least eight innings in four of his last six starts and has generated exactly half his contact on the ground this season with a board low 28% of his contact above a 95 mph exit velocity. The Yankees are a very difficult matchup at home for a RHP, but they are also second worst in the majors against ground ball pitchers (76 sOPS+ via Baseball-Reference).
Mike Clevinger has a 27.2 K% that’s second on the board with a 13.4 SwStr% that tops it. He has occasional problems with contact (88.3 mph aEV, 38.6 GB%) and control (12.2 BB%) that frequently prohibits him from getting deep into games. While he just had a string of four straight with exactly six innings snapped in his last start, he’s gone more than that just twice and five innings or fewer in six of his 13 starts. The Boston offense has been terrible without much power at all (9.0 HR/FB at home, 10.6 HR/FB vs RHP), but they are disciplined (8.8 K-BB% at home, 10.6 K-BB% vs RHP).
Sonny Gray struck out nine of 26 in his last start for the Athletics…I mean his last time out. His 23.5 K% is his highest since a rookie year in which he threw just 64 innings, while his 56.7 GB% is sixth among those with at least 90 IP. While his 38.9% 95+ mph EV is fairly high, his 86.3 mph aEV and 5.5% Barrels/BBE are both lower than league average in a park that enhances contact management. He has the top matchup on the board, hosting the Giants (we hope), although it’s a below average spot for strikeouts.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 14.4 HR/FB)
Gio Gonzalez (.251 – 84.5% – 12.4) is going to be the shocking omission on a difficult board, but it’s really the price tag ($11.2K on DraftKings) that prohibits him today. He’s a league average bat misser, who has been a competent contact manager (85.3 mph aEV), but with a 10% walk rate (although it’s been just 7.6% since the start of June). The Marlins are one of the hottest offenses on the board, but if you have the leftover salary, I do have him pretty much in line with the third and fourth tier usables overall.
Cole Hamels (.234 – 72.2% – 13) still mixes in some clunkers with his decent starts, but that right there is the major issue. His decent starts have been just decent. He hasn’t struck out more than six in any start this year. The risk certainly doesn’t seem worth $8.5K anymore. While Seattle is a marginal offense on the road and vs LHP, the Texas heat will enhance them.
Alex Cobb (.268 – 75.6% – 11.8) has an 8.6% unearned run rate, which isn’t too bad. Over his last six starts, he has a .152 BABIP and 85.4 LOB% and has gone at least 7.2 innings four times with marginal contact management. Except for one start, four of his five runs allowed have been home runs. However, he still has just a 14.7 K% over that span. There’s no upside against the top offense in baseball, although without two of their top bats.
Jose Urena (.249 – 76.3% – 11.9) has increased his strikeout rate in July, but without the requisite increase in swinging strike rate (in fact it’s dropped) and an 11.2 BB%.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Marco Estrada walked another four in his last start and still has a 0.0 K-BB% over his last seven starts (18.9% each).
Ubaldo Jimenez has a board high 40.9% 95+ mph EV with an 88.3 mph aEV that’s tied for highest on the slate.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 15.9% | 6.1% | Road | 13.8% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 1.9% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Years | 24.2% | 8.2% | Home | 25.6% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 1.9% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 21.6% | 8.3% | Home | 21.2% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 15.1% | 7.6% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 22.8% | 6.7% | Road | 25.5% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 2.0% |
| Doug Fister | Red Sox | L2 Years | 15.8% | 8.5% | Home | 13.6% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 15.0% | 15.0% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Years | 20.1% | 8.3% | Road | 18.2% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 8.3% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 23.1% | 8.9% | Road | 19.9% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 20.8% | 7.6% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 17.8% | 10.6% | Home | 17.8% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 14.9% | 12.8% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 15.2% | 8.4% | Home | 15.1% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 12.5% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 24.6% | 7.3% | Home | 25.6% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 5.3% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 22.1% | 9.0% | Road | 23.2% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 17.2% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 14.8% | 8.6% | Road | 13.5% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 14.0% | 7.0% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 19.1% | 5.9% | Road | 20.0% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 16.3% | 2.0% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 24.6% | 12.3% | Road | 25.2% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 8.5% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 20.2% | 7.3% | Road | 21.4% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 9.1% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Years | 24.1% | 10.2% | Home | 32.8% | 3.2% | L14 Days | 23.9% | 4.4% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | L2 Years | 19.8% | 8.1% | Home | 20.5% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 7.4% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 19.7% | 10.7% | Home | 18.9% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 5.7% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | Home | 16.9% | 7.9% | RH | 17.5% | 8.1% | L7Days | 18.9% | 5.7% |
| Rays | Road | 25.9% | 8.5% | RH | 25.1% | 8.8% | L7Days | 30.7% | 9.7% |
| Mariners | Road | 20.6% | 7.3% | LH | 19.2% | 9.3% | L7Days | 27.1% | 8.9% |
| Orioles | Home | 22.0% | 7.3% | LH | 24.2% | 6.8% | L7Days | 16.9% | 8.0% |
| Indians | Road | 18.1% | 9.5% | RH | 19.2% | 9.6% | L7Days | 15.4% | 13.3% |
| Rangers | Home | 21.8% | 9.5% | RH | 23.8% | 9.1% | L7Days | 20.5% | 9.0% |
| Marlins | Home | 20.6% | 8.4% | LH | 20.3% | 7.3% | L7Days | 20.6% | 12.8% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.4% | 9.2% | RH | 20.7% | 8.4% | L7Days | 18.7% | 10.9% |
| Nationals | Road | 20.7% | 8.7% | RH | 20.1% | 9.2% | L7Days | 25.9% | 5.9% |
| Tigers | Road | 22.8% | 9.1% | RH | 21.7% | 9.4% | L7Days | 18.9% | 9.2% |
| White Sox | Home | 23.3% | 7.5% | RH | 22.8% | 6.6% | L7Days | 29.5% | 6.3% |
| Athletics | Home | 24.8% | 9.4% | RH | 25.0% | 9.5% | L7Days | 21.3% | 10.5% |
| Yankees | Home | 23.4% | 10.6% | RH | 22.6% | 9.6% | L7Days | 22.4% | 9.2% |
| Red Sox | Home | 18.2% | 9.4% | RH | 19.3% | 8.7% | L7Days | 19.1% | 7.1% |
| Phillies | Home | 22.6% | 8.4% | RH | 23.7% | 8.0% | L7Days | 27.8% | 8.7% |
| Braves | Road | 19.7% | 7.5% | RH | 19.9% | 7.1% | L7Days | 19.8% | 8.0% |
| Giants | Road | 19.4% | 8.1% | RH | 19.3% | 7.5% | L7Days | 16.0% | 8.9% |
| Royals | Road | 21.3% | 6.0% | RH | 20.6% | 6.5% | L7Days | 18.9% | 5.1% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | Rays | L2 Years | 35.7% | 13.2% | 20.7% | 2017 | 36.9% | 11.8% | 22.4% | Road | 33.2% | 12.6% | 19.2% | L14 Days | 41.5% | 33.3% | 26.9% |
| Charlie Morton | Astros | L2 Years | 30.0% | 15.3% | 10.5% | 2017 | 31.8% | 16.1% | 10.4% | Home | 31.0% | 18.2% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 7.7% | -18.9% |
| Cole Hamels | Rangers | L2 Years | 31.9% | 13.6% | 13.6% | 2017 | 36.9% | 13.0% | 23.8% | Home | 34.8% | 14.9% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 33.3% | 25.7% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 32.0% | 10.6% | 13.4% | 2017 | 29.0% | 5.8% | 11.5% | Road | 31.2% | 11.9% | 12.4% | L14 Days | 35.0% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Doug Fister | Red Sox | L2 Years | 30.9% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 2017 | 29.3% | 12.9% | 8.6% | Home | 30.1% | 8.3% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 11.1% | -3.6% |
| Felix Hernandez | Mariners | L2 Years | 28.4% | 17.3% | 11.0% | 2017 | 29.9% | 23.3% | 8.8% | Road | 25.7% | 18.3% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 35.5% | 18.2% | 6.5% |
| Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | L2 Years | 31.2% | 11.0% | 11.6% | 2017 | 30.5% | 12.4% | 9.0% | Road | 31.3% | 11.7% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 21.1% | 12.5% | 2.7% |
| James Shields | White Sox | L2 Years | 33.2% | 17.2% | 16.5% | 2017 | 34.5% | 15.4% | 15.4% | Home | 33.3% | 17.4% | 19.1% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 8.3% | 14.7% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 32.5% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 2017 | 32.5% | 11.9% | 13.2% | Home | 32.3% | 11.5% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 12.5% | 13.3% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 28.5% | 14.7% | 6.9% | 2017 | 29.1% | 12.2% | 9.5% | Home | 30.2% | 20.7% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 0.0% | 5.1% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 30.4% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 2017 | 29.9% | 12.1% | 10.0% | Road | 31.3% | 10.3% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 9.1% | -2.4% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 32.6% | 14.7% | 14.5% | 2017 | 31.7% | 13.0% | 15.4% | Road | 33.0% | 14.8% | 14.9% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 11.1% | 8.8% |
| Michael Fulmer | Tigers | L2 Years | 29.7% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 2017 | 28.9% | 7.4% | 11.1% | Road | 26.5% | 10.1% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 18.2% | 20.5% |
| Mike Clevinger | Indians | L2 Years | 32.5% | 13.2% | 15.6% | 2017 | 33.7% | 13.2% | 18.0% | Road | 30.7% | 11.9% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 38.7% | 14.3% | 16.1% |
| Mike Foltynewicz | Braves | L2 Years | 29.8% | 14.2% | 12.1% | 2017 | 28.0% | 13.8% | 12.4% | Road | 28.5% | 17.0% | 10.1% | L14 Days | 38.2% | 15.4% | 26.4% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Years | 38.4% | 18.4% | 25.1% | 2017 | 38.4% | 18.4% | 25.1% | Home | 38.5% | 23.5% | 25.7% | L14 Days | 39.4% | 25.0% | 21.2% |
| Sonny Gray | Athletics | L2 Years | 31.1% | 15.5% | 15.1% | 2017 | 28.4% | 13.1% | 11.7% | Home | 29.4% | 12.1% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | -2.9% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 32.0% | 14.8% | 13.4% | 2017 | 36.4% | 21.3% | 18.9% | Home | 34.5% | 18.6% | 15.2% | L14 Days | 48.0% | 25.0% | 30.0% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | Home | 31.0% | 15.4% | 13.3% | RH | 33.7% | 16.0% | 16.2% | L7Days | 28.4% | 9.5% | 8.9% |
| Rays | Road | 33.0% | 16.8% | 13.2% | RH | 35.8% | 17.9% | 17.9% | L7Days | 30.5% | 17.0% | 3.3% |
| Mariners | Road | 31.7% | 11.8% | 13.7% | LH | 30.3% | 9.8% | 10.4% | L7Days | 36.1% | 11.8% | 18.4% |
| Orioles | Home | 30.8% | 16.3% | 10.2% | LH | 34.9% | 13.8% | 16.2% | L7Days | 37.5% | 14.5% | 14.9% |
| Indians | Road | 34.8% | 11.4% | 18.3% | RH | 33.7% | 11.9% | 17.0% | L7Days | 32.3% | 14.7% | 16.9% |
| Rangers | Home | 36.2% | 16.9% | 17.9% | RH | 34.2% | 17.5% | 14.9% | L7Days | 39.0% | 14.3% | 22.6% |
| Marlins | Home | 31.6% | 15.3% | 9.9% | LH | 27.2% | 16.1% | 4.0% | L7Days | 37.3% | 17.6% | 21.1% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 31.5% | 14.3% | 12.6% | RH | 30.9% | 14.9% | 11.2% | L7Days | 31.7% | 17.1% | 18.4% |
| Nationals | Road | 31.5% | 15.8% | 13.0% | RH | 32.1% | 15.6% | 15.3% | L7Days | 36.7% | 25.0% | 24.0% |
| Tigers | Road | 35.4% | 12.1% | 18.2% | RH | 40.5% | 11.5% | 25.1% | L7Days | 36.5% | 6.9% | 19.1% |
| White Sox | Home | 28.9% | 13.5% | 7.5% | RH | 31.0% | 13.5% | 12.0% | L7Days | 26.9% | 19.3% | 6.4% |
| Athletics | Home | 31.7% | 15.1% | 16.6% | RH | 33.2% | 14.9% | 16.3% | L7Days | 31.3% | 9.8% | 12.1% |
| Yankees | Home | 30.3% | 20.2% | 9.7% | RH | 31.6% | 16.9% | 12.8% | L7Days | 26.3% | 23.4% | 7.2% |
| Red Sox | Home | 35.2% | 9.0% | 16.8% | RH | 34.0% | 10.6% | 15.8% | L7Days | 26.7% | 10.5% | 2.3% |
| Phillies | Home | 29.9% | 15.1% | 9.7% | RH | 30.5% | 12.1% | 9.9% | L7Days | 25.2% | 16.3% | 4.1% |
| Braves | Road | 31.6% | 12.4% | 13.5% | RH | 30.8% | 11.4% | 12.2% | L7Days | 34.5% | 12.3% | 19.0% |
| Giants | Road | 31.2% | 11.0% | 10.6% | RH | 28.0% | 8.6% | 6.5% | L7Days | 26.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% |
| Royals | Road | 32.8% | 14.7% | 13.3% | RH | 32.3% | 12.3% | 13.2% | L7Days | 39.2% | 14.3% | 22.8% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.5 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 16.0% | 7.0% | 2.29 | 14.6% | 6.7% | 2.18 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 26.1% | 10.4% | 2.51 | 26.7% | 11.0% | 2.43 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 14.4% | 7.9% | 1.82 | 19.5% | 9.4% | 2.07 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 19.0% | 11.4% | 1.67 | 19.7% | 10.7% | 1.84 |
| Doug Fister | BOS | 17.2% | 7.2% | 2.39 | 15.5% | 6.3% | 2.46 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 22.0% | 9.5% | 2.32 | 25.2% | 10.8% | 2.33 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 23.0% | 9.3% | 2.47 | 23.7% | 9.6% | 2.47 |
| James Shields | CHW | 16.0% | 8.7% | 1.84 | 12.5% | 8.0% | 1.56 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.88 | 20.6% | 7.5% | 2.75 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 27.9% | 12.5% | 2.23 | 27.1% | 13.6% | 1.99 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 24.2% | 11.5% | 2.10 | 18.7% | 9.4% | 1.99 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 12.9% | 4.8% | 2.69 | 12.3% | 5.0% | 2.46 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 17.5% | 9.8% | 1.79 | 13.1% | 8.9% | 1.47 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 27.2% | 13.4% | 2.03 | 24.5% | 11.7% | 2.09 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 20.8% | 8.7% | 2.39 | 23.9% | 9.5% | 2.52 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 24.1% | 8.4% | 2.87 | 23.8% | 9.0% | 2.64 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 23.5% | 12.1% | 1.94 | 23.4% | 12.5% | 1.87 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 19.8% | 7.6% | 2.61 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 2.92 |
Danny Duffy has had at least a 9.9 SwStr% in four of his last six starts, but the SwStr% is down overall. We should still see him striking out at least one-fifth to a quarter of the batters he faces.
Michael Fulmer had a sub-seven SwStr% in each of his first three July starts, but has been above 11% in each of his last two against the Royals.
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.48 ERA – 4.48 SIERA – 4.41 xFIP – 4.50 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 3.46 | 4.67 | 1.21 | 4.47 | 1.01 | 4.22 | 0.76 | 3.84 | 0.38 | 2.7 | 4.44 | 1.74 | 4.14 | 1.44 | 4.76 | 2.06 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 3.83 | 3.81 | -0.02 | 3.71 | -0.12 | 3.95 | 0.12 | 3.90 | 0.07 | 3.28 | 3.75 | 0.47 | 4.03 | 0.75 | 3.88 | 0.6 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 3.97 | 5.04 | 1.07 | 4.97 | 1 | 4.88 | 0.91 | 4.77 | 0.80 | 3.51 | 4.13 | 0.62 | 4.22 | 0.71 | 4.41 | 0.9 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 3.56 | 4.59 | 1.03 | 4.67 | 1.11 | 3.43 | -0.13 | 4.27 | 0.71 | 3.62 | 4.12 | 0.5 | 4.29 | 0.67 | 3.18 | -0.44 |
| Doug Fister | BOS | 7.46 | 5.65 | -1.81 | 5.92 | -1.54 | 5.79 | -1.67 | 7.47 | 0.01 | 8.38 | 5.97 | -2.41 | 6.57 | -1.81 | 6.77 | -1.61 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 4.08 | 4 | -0.08 | 3.81 | -0.27 | 4.9 | 0.82 | 3.32 | -0.76 | 3.34 | 4.07 | 0.73 | 4 | 0.66 | 4.56 | 1.22 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 2.81 | 4.42 | 1.61 | 4.26 | 1.45 | 4.1 | 1.29 | 3.47 | 0.66 | 2.65 | 3.84 | 1.19 | 3.62 | 0.97 | 3.29 | 0.64 |
| James Shields | CHW | 5.86 | 5.67 | -0.19 | 6.23 | 0.37 | 6.56 | 0.7 | 7.23 | 1.37 | 9 | 6 | -3 | 6.44 | -2.56 | 7.04 | -1.96 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 4.04 | 5.15 | 1.11 | 5.49 | 1.45 | 5.19 | 1.15 | 5.28 | 1.24 | 6 | 4.93 | -1.07 | 5.27 | -0.73 | 6.44 | 0.44 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 3.03 | 3.3 | 0.27 | 3.09 | 0.06 | 2.94 | -0.09 | 2.89 | -0.14 | 2.7 | 3.49 | 0.79 | 3.48 | 0.78 | 2.55 | -0.15 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 5.43 | 4.45 | -0.98 | 4.8 | -0.63 | 4.51 | -0.92 | 7.45 | 2.02 | 7.66 | 6.88 | -0.78 | 7.19 | -0.47 | 6.64 | -1.02 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 5.45 | 5.5 | 0.05 | 5.23 | -0.22 | 5.13 | -0.32 | 7.71 | 2.26 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 0.2 | 5.18 | -0.22 | 4.71 | -0.69 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 3.35 | 4.29 | 0.94 | 4.09 | 0.74 | 3.34 | -0.01 | 2.99 | -0.36 | 3.86 | 4.65 | 0.79 | 4.48 | 0.62 | 4.56 | 0.7 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 3.2 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 4.23 | 1.03 | 4.17 | 0.97 | 3.35 | 0.15 | 2.42 | 4.54 | 2.12 | 4.48 | 2.06 | 3.73 | 1.31 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 3.82 | 4.48 | 0.66 | 4.52 | 0.7 | 4.54 | 0.72 | 5.50 | 1.68 | 3.13 | 4.32 | 1.19 | 4.51 | 1.38 | 4.13 | 1 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 5.73 | 4.39 | -1.34 | 4.53 | -1.2 | 5.23 | -0.5 | 5.59 | -0.14 | 6.23 | 4.14 | -2.09 | 4.63 | -1.6 | 5.65 | -0.58 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 3.43 | 3.69 | 0.26 | 3.29 | -0.14 | 3.24 | -0.19 | 3.05 | -0.38 | 1.39 | 3.43 | 2.04 | 3.09 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.11 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 6.93 | 4.78 | -2.15 | 4.78 | -2.15 | 5.85 | -1.08 | 6.97 | 0.04 | 8.28 | 4.46 | -3.82 | 4.58 | -3.7 | 6.15 | -2.13 |
Danny Duffy has just a 5.8 HR/FB. The hope is that his strikeout rate would come in line with his SwStr% and lower his estimators, but it doesn’t appear to be moving that way. It’s the SwStr% that’s declined recently.
Michael Fulmer has just a 7.4 HR/FB. He has managed contact well, but I’m not sure that’s a sustainable mark anymore in this era of HRs.
Mike Clevinger has a .252 BABIP and 80.7 LOB%. While he has the lowest Z-Contact% on the board, the rest of his profile is marginal.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.5 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 86.7 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | 95+ MPH EV | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Cobb | TAM | 0.284 | 0.268 | -0.016 | 46.7% | 0.216 | 6.6% | 90.5% | 87.9 | 6.00% | 35.70% | 434 |
| Charlie Morton | HOU | 0.295 | 0.294 | -0.001 | 50.7% | 0.21 | 11.3% | 84.0% | 85.9 | 5.00% | 35.00% | 220 |
| Cole Hamels | TEX | 0.289 | 0.234 | -0.055 | 49.3% | 0.183 | 7.2% | 89.4% | 87.7 | 5.10% | 35.00% | 214 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.299 | 0.313 | 0.014 | 38.9% | 0.203 | 10.7% | 86.4% | 86.2 | 4.60% | 29.30% | 304 |
| Doug Fister | BOS | 0.305 | 0.333 | 0.028 | 39.2% | 0.215 | 9.7% | 89.7% | 85.9 | 7.30% | 35.40% | 82 |
| Felix Hernandez | SEA | 0.279 | 0.309 | 0.03 | 45.0% | 0.252 | 10.0% | 89.8% | 86.7 | 9.80% | 32.40% | 204 |
| Gio Gonzalez | WAS | 0.293 | 0.251 | -0.042 | 45.7% | 0.182 | 9.3% | 86.5% | 85.3 | 5.70% | 29.20% | 367 |
| James Shields | CHW | 0.288 | 0.282 | -0.006 | 36.9% | 0.167 | 6.4% | 85.6% | 88.2 | 7.70% | 39.30% | 168 |
| Jose Urena | MIA | 0.293 | 0.249 | -0.044 | 40.8% | 0.178 | 10.3% | 88.9% | 85.2 | 9.30% | 28.80% | 312 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 0.290 | 0.291 | 0.001 | 51.8% | 0.187 | 11.2% | 84.3% | 87.3 | 5.60% | 35.30% | 337 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.307 | 0.323 | 0.016 | 32.1% | 0.199 | 14.0% | 80.6% | 87.5 | 8.50% | 34.10% | 331 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 0.317 | 0.327 | 0.01 | 42.9% | 0.243 | 8.7% | 92.1% | 87.5 | 5.30% | 33.90% | 357 |
| Michael Fulmer | DET | 0.309 | 0.273 | -0.036 | 50.0% | 0.204 | 10.7% | 87.8% | 85.7 | 4.60% | 28.00% | 415 |
| Mike Clevinger | CLE | 0.303 | 0.252 | -0.051 | 38.6% | 0.216 | 8.8% | 79.2% | 88.3 | 8.10% | 35.50% | 172 |
| Mike Foltynewicz | ATL | 0.292 | 0.301 | 0.009 | 38.8% | 0.239 | 7.3% | 85.2% | 86.7 | 6.20% | 31.90% | 339 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 0.297 | 0.303 | 0.006 | 40.0% | 0.186 | 8.0% | 87.6% | 88.7 | 8.50% | 39.30% | 211 |
| Sonny Gray | OAK | 0.292 | 0.285 | -0.007 | 56.7% | 0.207 | 3.3% | 85.8% | 86.3 | 5.50% | 38.90% | 275 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.315 | 0.298 | -0.017 | 45.2% | 0.191 | 9.3% | 89.9% | 88.3 | 8.80% | 40.90% | 308 |
Felix Hernandez has an elevated line drive rate, which seems strange considering that he hasn’t allowed a ton of hard contact and most of that seems to be wrapped up in barrels and home runs.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
The thing to realize today is that pricing is such that even the top values are generally third tier guys on a standard day with only really the top three guys (top two if Gray is traded) are ideal plays.
Value Tier One
Luis Severino (1) is going deep into games consistently and is top 10 in the majors via K-BB% and GB%. What more could you want? Maybe a lower price tag?
Charlie Morton (2) hits the $10K mark on DraftKings, but is nearly $2K less on FanDuel. He projects for the top strikeout rate facing the Rays and generally does keep the ball in the yard, but does occasionally struggle to prevent runs.
Value Tier Two
Editor’s Note: Sonny Gray has been traded. Paul Blackburn is expected to start in his place for Oakland tonight.
Sonny Gray (3) has a 12.1 SwStr% that is his highest career mark by more two full points, while he’s still generating ground balls at an elite level and is in a great spot at home (for now) against the Giants. The $11.7K cost on DraftKings is bordering on extreme though.
Value Tier Three
Danny Duffy is in a decent spot because the Orioles have been poor vs LHP, but the environment is still a bit of a concern for a pitcher who has failed to often meet his upside this year.
Mike Clevinger has the upside to cover a $7.8K cost on either site, but does have flaws in his contact and control profiles, while he faces a struggling offense, but not a high strikeout one in a difficult run environment.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Felix Hernandez has shown flashes of the King in recent starts, but it hasn’t been consistent and he’s in a dangerous environment tonight in Texas for more than $8K tonight.
Michael Fulmer is the third most expensive pitcher on FanDuel with the largest negative gap (tied) on the board towards a DraftKings cost that smack in the middle of the board. While it’s a difficult matchup at Yankee Stadium for a pitcher who has seen his strikeout rate plummet, he’s been going very deep into games with an increase in his SwStr% over his last couple of starts, while the Yankees have a severe drop off against ground ball pitchers.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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