Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, May 1st
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Against all odds, there will be a pitching article today (this one) despite the bleak outlook for one over the weekend, but it will be abbreviated. Probable pitchers were posted early enough Sunday for the work to be done in the evening. However, the notes were written with day or two old stats for opposing offenses, so keep that in mind if I’ve been sometimes vague on the matchups today.
Due to time constraints, most of the notes will be on pitchers being considered, which is a shame, considering how deep this board is. It really deserves more of an effort. Please note that several omitted pitchers are through no fault of their own, but rather on the strength of the pitchers ahead of them. Things will be back to normal with full 15 game night slates of punishment on Tuesday and Wednesday.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 22.6 | 3.69 | 5.75 | 49.3% | 1.02 | 0.95 | 3.65 | PIT | 85 | 101 | 118 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | -2.4 | 4.55 | 5.36 | 46.7% | 0.94 | 5.33 | 7.46 | HOU | 113 | 123 | 123 |
| Brett Anderson | CHC | 12.7 | 3.69 | 5.59 | 64.5% | 0.96 | 4.76 | 4.42 | PHI | 80 | 92 | 104 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | -11.6 | 2.33 | 7.13 | 49.4% | 0.89 | 2.24 | 2.56 | SFO | 80 | 65 | 55 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 1.6 | 4.23 | 4.96 | 40.9% | 0.98 | 4.52 | 4.74 | CLE | 107 | 85 | 116 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | -11.1 | 4.22 | 5.48 | 34.7% | 1.13 | 4.64 | 4.58 | BOS | 101 | 99 | 75 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | 1.1 | 6.01 | 4.7 | 50.0% | 1.06 | 6 | 5.77 | KAN | 80 | 73 | 74 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 6 | 3.7 | 6.1 | 45.8% | 1.02 | 3.81 | 2.47 | CIN | 80 | 97 | 118 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 5.9 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 36.2% | 0.94 | 4.58 | MIA | 92 | 90 | 80 | |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 14.6 | 3.33 | 5.08 | 41.7% | 1.06 | 2.72 | 2.35 | CHW | 83 | 135 | 151 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 1.3 | 3.82 | 6.63 | 46.3% | 0.89 | 3.49 | 5.12 | LOS | 129 | 117 | 91 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.9 | 4.12 | 6.21 | 39.2% | 1 | 4.09 | 5.94 | NYM | 112 | 79 | 102 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | -5.6 | 3.51 | 5.74 | 51.1% | 0.94 | 2.64 | 3.8 | TEX | 75 | 100 | 102 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 4.2 | 3.69 | 5.27 | 48.6% | 1.01 | 3.08 | 2.2 | TOR | 86 | 75 | 83 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | -1.6 | 4.43 | 6.07 | 33.1% | 1.01 | 4.54 | 2.63 | NYY | 150 | 125 | 146 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | -18.8 | 4.12 | 5.78 | 44.8% | 0.98 | 3.8 | 4.21 | MIL | 116 | 93 | 124 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 1.6 | 3.74 | 6.44 | 44.2% | 1.13 | 3.96 | 3.83 | BAL | 111 | 103 | 104 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 0.4 | 3.72 | 5.56 | 55.3% | 1 | 3.85 | 3.36 | ATL | 91 | 95 | 134 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | -13.7 | 4.19 | 5.97 | 44.4% | 0.98 | 3.92 | 3.4 | DET | 114 | 118 | 124 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 12.2 | 3.73 | 5.43 | 34.8% | 0.96 | 4.11 | 5.62 | CHC | 93 | 93 | 107 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | MIA | 4.8 | 4.03 | 5.91 | 40.3% | 0.94 | 4.51 | 5.67 | TAM | 88 | 110 | 94 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | -7.7 | 4.17 | 5.69 | 47.1% | 0.98 | 4.33 | 3.55 | STL | 92 | 99 | 133 |
Amir Garrett was soundly thumped by the Brewers in his last start, allowing three HRs (four walks, one strikeout) and has actually only struck out more than 20% of batters faced in one start, but has had a double digit SwStr% in two. The reality is obviously somewhere in between the extremes of his last two starts, but that’s still a very wide net to cast. One of his better starts was against these Pirates, who are probably just an average offense vs LHP after the loss of Marte. Interestingly, he’s faced a number of predominantly RH lineups and thrown his changeup 21% of the time in two of his more successful starts before going with it just 15% of the time against the Brewers. A 91 mph fastball is not his best pitch, often coming off the bat as hard as he throws it, so perhaps he’s learned some sort of lessen here.
Clayton Kershaw pitched like something more akin to a Cy Young contender than the best pitcher of the last decade through the month of April. His 26.9 K-BB% is down 2.7 points from last year, 45.1 GB% is down 4.3 points, his 32.6 Hard% is up 3.8 points and most glaringly, his 11.9 SwStr% is down 3.4 points. Yet, it’s right at his 12.0% career average and would have been the highest of his career prior to 2014. All of this and he’s allowed more than two runs only in Colorado through five starts. He’s still great, but just hasn’t been whatever his usual level above great has been. That may still be coming as he started “slowly” two years ago as well. He faces a San Francisco offense that he shut down for seven innings in his last start and one that’s been terrible all season long so far. Despite being more power-friendly, LA has played just pitcher friendly as SF in overall run scoring environment.
Gerrit Cole struck out a total of 11 batters over his first three starts, but has now struck out 16 of his last 49 with a SwStr% above 12% in each of his last two starts. He threw an amazing 91.7% of first pitch strikes in his last start with 60% of contact on the ground. While a couple of strong starts shouldn’t turn our expectations around, consider that he failed to strike out more than seven a single time in 21 starts last year. He’s also in a decent spot against the Reds, who don’t strike out much but may not be as bad as originally perceived, but are far from an offense to avoid.
Jason Vargas is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing three ERs in five innings to the White Sox, who can hit LHP. He struck out a season low five, but still had an above average strikeout rate (21.7%) in the game and generated his highest SwStr rate of the season (17.1%). It’s difficult to pinpoint what appear to be subtle differences that have made a whale of a difference, and accordingly make it more difficult to trust over the long run. You may read that his pitches are moving slightly more, his release point is slightly altered or perhaps it’s location or command. It’s not the velocity. He’s facing those same White Sox tonight at home. Kansas City may an overall positive run environment, but will generally play well towards those fly ball pitchers the Royals love to use due to their strong outfield defense.
Lance McCullers has a 29.0 K% and 55.4 GB% overall with just a 22.1 Hard%. He can be flat out dominant on any given day, but there have also been some pretty large fluctuations in his numbers too. Six of his nine walks have come in just two of his five starts as have all four of his HRs allowed. His ground ball rate has been above 75% twice, but also below 47% in each of his other three. Strikeouts have fluctuated a bit too, but have been at least above average in every start. The Rangers are a pretty average set of bats in most ways and though Houston remains power friendly, it’s actually been playing as one of the more negative run environments the last few years.
Luis Severino has gone at least seven innings in each of his last three starts only failing to strikeout at least 10 against Boston in that time frame. His 28.7 K-BB% is tied with a certain under-achieving teammate for third best in the majors. He’s still not throwing a third pitch more than 10% of the time, but his changeup has graded out better this season. The strikeout rate will likely drop below 30%, but he has had a double digit SwStr% in every start and contact has been exceptional (0.0 Hard-Soft%, 55.6 GB%). The Blue Jays have been a mess and are striking out quite a bit vs RHP.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.3 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Michael Wacha (.277 – 84% – 11.1) is probably fine, like most pitchers are today, but just doesn’t appear to be one of the best choices at his current cost.
Dylan Bundy (.264 – 89% – 5.3) has struck out six of 51 Boston batters and facing them for the third time in a month.
Julio Teheran (.286 – 74.6% – 5.6) has just a 5.6 K-BB%.
Marco Estrada (.289 – 84.9% – 8.1) mostly suffers from the matchup more than anything else tonight. He’s missing a lot of bats, but generates too many fly balls for comfort in that park against the top offense in the land this season.
Andrew Cashner (.250 – 86.2% – 12.5%) has a -7.5 K-BB%.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Johnny Cueto is too expensive against a top offense against RHP.
Vince Velasquez has struck out just five of his last 51 batters.
Wei-Yin Chen
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Garrett | Reds | L2 Years | 22.7% | 7.2% | Home | 42.9% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 9.8% |
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 18.8% | 9.9% | Road | 16.2% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 13.6% | 22.7% |
| Brett Anderson | Cubs | L2 Years | 15.2% | 7.0% | Home | 12.5% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 12.8% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 32.6% | 3.4% | Home | 32.5% | 1.7% | L14 Days | 30.9% | 3.6% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | L2 Years | 20.2% | 7.4% | Home | 20.5% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 8.3% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 21.3% | 8.1% | Road | 21.8% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 5.6% |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | L2 Years | 9.2% | 12.3% | Road | 4.3% | 10.6% | L14 Days | 11.6% | 11.6% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 21.8% | 5.8% | Road | 20.1% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 32.7% | 4.1% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 21.4% | 6.8% | Road | 19.8% | 6.3% | L14 Days | ||
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 24.2% | 3.8% | Home | 28.9% | 3.6% | L14 Days | 29.8% | 0.0% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 20.7% | 5.5% | Road | 23.1% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 11.5% | 7.7% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 21.1% | 7.3% | Home | 22.8% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 14.3% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 27.2% | 9.7% | Home | 31.3% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 27.1% | 12.5% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 23.2% | 7.6% | Home | 26.4% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 30.2% | 3.8% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 20.8% | 8.2% | Road | 22.5% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 34.0% | 6.4% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 20.2% | 7.6% | Home | 20.5% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 18.4% | 6.1% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 20.9% | 4.2% | Home | 21.5% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 23.3% | 8.3% |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 22.2% | 8.3% | Road | 22.2% | 9.3% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 7.4% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 21.8% | 9.2% | Road | 21.8% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 10.0% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 26.5% | 8.9% | Road | 21.9% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 9.8% | 9.8% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Years | 19.1% | 4.7% | Home | 19.9% | 5.2% | L14 Days | 10.6% | 8.5% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.3% | 6.8% | Road | 16.9% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 6.3% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Road | 17.3% | 8.7% | LH | 21.5% | 11.1% | L7Days | 15.7% | 13.2% |
| Astros | Home | 19.2% | 6.5% | RH | 19.9% | 7.2% | L7Days | 23.6% | 4.8% |
| Phillies | Road | 26.6% | 7.6% | LH | 23.7% | 8.4% | L7Days | 21.9% | 8.7% |
| Giants | Road | 19.7% | 7.6% | LH | 20.7% | 8.0% | L7Days | 21.3% | 6.5% |
| Indians | Road | 18.0% | 9.7% | LH | 18.7% | 11.2% | L7Days | 23.0% | 9.4% |
| Red Sox | Home | 18.2% | 8.1% | RH | 17.9% | 7.4% | L7Days | 23.7% | 7.7% |
| Royals | Home | 19.5% | 7.0% | RH | 21.3% | 6.5% | L7Days | 20.5% | 4.9% |
| Reds | Home | 22.0% | 7.1% | RH | 19.8% | 8.0% | L7Days | 21.0% | 9.3% |
| Marlins | Home | 22.8% | 7.8% | RH | 20.9% | 5.8% | L7Days | 16.8% | 5.4% |
| White Sox | Road | 23.4% | 5.6% | LH | 17.2% | 8.2% | L7Days | 18.4% | 7.1% |
| Dodgers | Home | 19.5% | 10.0% | RH | 20.2% | 10.3% | L7Days | 19.0% | 8.0% |
| Mets | Road | 21.4% | 9.4% | RH | 21.4% | 9.3% | L7Days | 17.6% | 7.5% |
| Rangers | Road | 19.9% | 8.0% | RH | 21.7% | 8.7% | L7Days | 23.6% | 8.8% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.6% | 9.1% | RH | 22.7% | 7.7% | L7Days | 19.9% | 8.1% |
| Yankees | Home | 21.2% | 12.2% | RH | 20.9% | 10.4% | L7Days | 24.7% | 12.6% |
| Brewers | Road | 22.8% | 8.1% | RH | 26.2% | 8.4% | L7Days | 20.5% | 10.9% |
| Orioles | Road | 25.3% | 6.9% | RH | 20.7% | 7.8% | L7Days | 22.3% | 10.5% |
| Braves | Home | 20.4% | 8.4% | RH | 20.5% | 8.0% | L7Days | 17.2% | 8.1% |
| Tigers | Home | 20.0% | 9.4% | RH | 21.3% | 10.7% | L7Days | 16.3% | 9.2% |
| Cubs | Home | 24.2% | 9.7% | RH | 23.1% | 9.0% | L7Days | 20.3% | 11.0% |
| Rays | Road | 28.1% | 10.0% | LH | 27.1% | 13.7% | L7Days | 22.8% | 13.1% |
| Cardinals | Home | 20.3% | 10.6% | RH | 20.1% | 9.4% | L7Days | 17.6% | 11.0% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Garrett | Reds | L2 Years | 41.8% | 19.0% | 26.9% | 2017 | 41.8% | 19.0% | 26.9% | Home | 40.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% | L14 Days | 51.5% | 33.3% | 48.5% |
| Andrew Cashner | Rangers | L2 Years | 32.9% | 12.5% | 17.8% | 2017 | 34.8% | 12.5% | 21.8% | Road | 38.3% | 15.8% | 27.5% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 16.7% | 17.9% |
| Brett Anderson | Cubs | L2 Years | 25.5% | 18.8% | -0.3% | 2017 | 32.8% | 8.3% | 7.4% | Home | 40.4% | 26.7% | 17.6% | L14 Days | 30.3% | 33.3% | 6.1% |
| Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | L2 Years | 26.7% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 2017 | 32.6% | 11.4% | 11.9% | Home | 28.0% | 2.9% | 7.1% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Norris | Tigers | L2 Years | 32.8% | 11.1% | 16.7% | 2017 | 41.9% | 4.2% | 25.7% | Home | 37.2% | 15.0% | 22.5% | L14 Days | 41.7% | 8.3% | 25.0% |
| Dylan Bundy | Orioles | L2 Years | 26.8% | 11.6% | 2.5% | 2017 | 22.6% | 5.3% | -4.3% | Road | 27.7% | 12.5% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 8.7% | 1.8% |
| Dylan Covey | White Sox | L2 Years | 32.0% | 18.8% | 6.0% | 2017 | 32.0% | 18.8% | 6.0% | Road | 30.0% | 25.0% | 5.0% | L14 Days | 40.6% | 25.0% | 12.5% |
| Gerrit Cole | Pirates | L2 Years | 30.9% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 2017 | 34.1% | 15.6% | 13.2% | Road | 32.0% | 9.4% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 25.8% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 31.4% | 11.9% | 14.2% | 2017 | 35.0% | 18.8% | 27.5% | Road | 32.9% | 13.1% | 17.5% | L14 Days | |||
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 30.8% | 6.3% | 10.1% | 2017 | 25.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | Home | 32.1% | 0.0% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 9.1% | 6.0% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 28.6% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 2017 | 39.2% | 18.8% | 22.7% | Road | 31.6% | 16.5% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 40.5% | 30.0% | 23.8% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 31.2% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 2017 | 23.3% | 5.6% | 2.4% | Home | 32.4% | 10.7% | 14.0% | L14 Days | 28.6% | 11.8% | 8.6% |
| Lance McCullers | Astros | L2 Years | 26.9% | 11.3% | 5.8% | 2017 | 22.1% | 22.2% | -2.6% | Home | 20.7% | 18.9% | -3.7% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Luis Severino | Yankees | L2 Years | 27.4% | 17.4% | 4.0% | 2017 | 23.4% | 21.1% | 0.0% | Home | 28.8% | 26.1% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 22.2% | -5.7% |
| Marco Estrada | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 29.6% | 9.1% | 9.4% | 2017 | 32.9% | 8.1% | 21.5% | Road | 33.3% | 9.9% | 13.6% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.3% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 2017 | 20.6% | 11.1% | 0.0% | Home | 31.3% | 11.3% | 12.6% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 8.3% | -5.5% |
| Rick Porcello | Red Sox | L2 Years | 32.4% | 11.4% | 15.5% | 2017 | 41.8% | 15.4% | 23.4% | Home | 33.9% | 9.2% | 15.9% | L14 Days | 36.6% | 6.7% | 22.0% |
| Robert Gsellman | Mets | L2 Years | 28.8% | 7.5% | 10.6% | 2017 | 29.6% | 16.7% | 11.3% | Road | 31.5% | 10.0% | 13.7% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 0.0% | 5.1% |
| Trevor Bauer | Indians | L2 Years | 31.9% | 12.7% | 12.6% | 2017 | 33.3% | 20.8% | 15.8% | Road | 30.3% | 6.7% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 14.3% | 16.7% |
| Vince Velasquez | Phillies | L2 Years | 31.3% | 13.3% | 13.4% | 2017 | 33.3% | 22.7% | 18.3% | Road | 32.4% | 14.5% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 29.3% | 14.3% | 14.7% |
| Wei-Yin Chen | Marlins | L2 Years | 30.9% | 13.1% | 11.8% | 2017 | 29.0% | 10.7% | 10.2% | Home | 36.6% | 10.7% | 18.8% | L14 Days | 29.7% | 6.3% | 10.8% |
| Zach Davies | Brewers | L2 Years | 34.0% | 11.7% | 13.8% | 2017 | 37.2% | 9.7% | 15.1% | Road | 31.8% | 9.7% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 44.1% | 9.1% | 32.3% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pirates | Road | 29.8% | 8.2% | 9.9% | LH | 28.1% | 12.9% | 8.3% | L7Days | 30.1% | 8.8% | 10.2% |
| Astros | Home | 28.8% | 15.8% | 8.7% | RH | 32.6% | 13.7% | 12.9% | L7Days | 29.5% | 11.8% | 7.7% |
| Phillies | Road | 32.8% | 12.5% | 10.8% | LH | 31.5% | 13.5% | 6.2% | L7Days | 39.4% | 15.0% | 21.3% |
| Giants | Road | 31.3% | 10.8% | 13.2% | LH | 25.2% | 9.1% | 3.8% | L7Days | 18.6% | 5.1% | -3.7% |
| Indians | Road | 37.9% | 11.0% | 19.7% | LH | 35.5% | 10.3% | 18.0% | L7Days | 27.8% | 14.5% | 12.5% |
| Red Sox | Home | 39.1% | 8.1% | 20.6% | RH | 37.9% | 7.4% | 19.1% | L7Days | 37.9% | 14.8% | 19.8% |
| Royals | Home | 30.0% | 9.5% | 8.3% | RH | 29.8% | 12.0% | 7.7% | L7Days | 35.3% | 10.0% | 14.7% |
| Reds | Home | 29.6% | 13.8% | 8.4% | RH | 29.5% | 11.8% | 7.8% | L7Days | 37.8% | 13.8% | 18.2% |
| Marlins | Home | 32.4% | 15.1% | 12.6% | RH | 31.0% | 14.5% | 11.9% | L7Days | 26.8% | 5.4% | 10.6% |
| White Sox | Road | 25.7% | 13.4% | 9.6% | LH | 28.7% | 10.4% | 10.6% | L7Days | 33.1% | 16.4% | 9.7% |
| Dodgers | Home | 38.5% | 16.7% | 26.1% | RH | 35.4% | 14.6% | 19.5% | L7Days | 36.7% | 14.3% | 22.6% |
| Mets | Road | 32.4% | 16.4% | 14.6% | RH | 28.4% | 11.7% | 9.0% | L7Days | 30.7% | 12.1% | 8.6% |
| Rangers | Road | 26.5% | 9.6% | 5.5% | RH | 34.6% | 15.3% | 16.0% | L7Days | 38.5% | 11.1% | 17.5% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 31.9% | 10.8% | 11.2% | RH | 30.3% | 10.0% | 7.9% | L7Days | 28.1% | 7.9% | 7.8% |
| Yankees | Home | 32.6% | 22.0% | 11.6% | RH | 31.4% | 15.4% | 9.7% | L7Days | 33.8% | 23.4% | 15.7% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.1% | 23.8% | 11.0% | RH | 33.7% | 21.5% | 13.7% | L7Days | 36.5% | 23.9% | 19.8% |
| Orioles | Road | 36.1% | 16.4% | 18.6% | RH | 30.4% | 13.8% | 11.3% | L7Days | 32.1% | 11.3% | 18.4% |
| Braves | Home | 30.9% | 15.9% | 13.5% | RH | 30.9% | 12.4% | 13.3% | L7Days | 32.9% | 18.4% | 13.5% |
| Tigers | Home | 48.4% | 10.9% | 33.2% | RH | 44.0% | 12.1% | 27.1% | L7Days | 44.1% | 7.9% | 24.9% |
| Cubs | Home | 26.4% | 10.8% | 6.8% | RH | 28.9% | 9.2% | 11.8% | L7Days | 30.4% | 12.7% | 11.9% |
| Rays | Road | 31.5% | 14.8% | 8.3% | LH | 33.1% | 8.7% | 8.8% | L7Days | 27.0% | 12.7% | 0.6% |
| Cardinals | Home | 27.2% | 10.1% | 7.5% | RH | 29.5% | 12.1% | 10.2% | L7Days | 32.0% | 12.2% | 12.0% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.2 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.13 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 22.7% | 11.7% | 1.94 | 22.7% | 11.7% | 1.94 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 11.9% | 6.6% | 1.80 | 11.9% | 6.6% | 1.80 |
| Brett Anderson | CHC | 15.2% | 8.8% | 1.73 | 15.2% | 8.8% | 1.73 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 29.1% | 11.9% | 2.45 | 29.1% | 11.9% | 2.45 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 15.0% | 9.2% | 1.63 | 15.0% | 9.2% | 1.63 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 18.9% | 11.0% | 1.72 | 18.9% | 11.0% | 1.72 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | 9.2% | 5.0% | 1.84 | 9.2% | 5.0% | 1.84 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 21.8% | 9.6% | 2.27 | 21.8% | 9.6% | 2.27 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.51 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.51 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 28.9% | 14.5% | 1.99 | 28.9% | 14.5% | 1.99 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 18.2% | 11.2% | 1.63 | 18.2% | 11.2% | 1.63 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 17.6% | 7.8% | 2.26 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 2.26 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 29.0% | 12.0% | 2.42 | 29.0% | 12.0% | 2.42 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 32.7% | 11.8% | 2.77 | 32.7% | 11.8% | 2.77 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 26.8% | 12.9% | 2.08 | 26.8% | 12.9% | 2.08 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 23.5% | 10.8% | 2.18 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 2.18 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 23.0% | 11.3% | 2.04 | 23.0% | 11.3% | 2.04 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 21.2% | 7.2% | 2.94 | 21.2% | 7.2% | 2.94 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 28.6% | 9.1% | 3.14 | 28.6% | 9.1% | 3.14 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 23.2% | 9.3% | 2.49 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 2.49 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | MIA | 14.8% | 8.3% | 1.78 | 14.8% | 8.3% | 1.78 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 18.5% | 7.7% | 2.40 | 18.5% | 7.7% | 2.40 |
Only six pitchers have below average strikeout and swinging strike rates. It’s a really deep board for a short slate. I wish I had more time to do it justice.
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.34 ERA – 4.30 SIERA – 4.24 xFIP – 4.30 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 5.09 | 3.69 | -1.4 | 3.65 | -1.44 | 4.39 | -0.7 | 6.18 | 1.09 | 5.09 | 3.69 | -1.4 | 3.65 | -1.44 | 4.39 | -0.7 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 2.93 | 6.95 | 4.02 | 6.23 | 3.3 | 6.19 | 3.26 | 7.43 | 4.50 | 2.93 | 6.95 | 4.02 | 6.23 | 3.3 | 6.19 | 3.26 |
| Brett Anderson | CHC | 3.54 | 4.85 | 1.31 | 4.23 | 0.69 | 3.88 | 0.34 | 5.79 | 2.25 | 3.54 | 4.85 | 1.31 | 4.23 | 0.69 | 3.88 | 0.34 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 2.29 | 2.62 | 0.33 | 2.69 | 0.4 | 2.52 | 0.23 | 1.88 | -0.41 | 2.29 | 2.63 | 0.34 | 2.69 | 0.4 | 2.52 | 0.23 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 4.71 | 5.22 | 0.51 | 5.04 | 0.33 | 3.76 | -0.95 | 4.59 | -0.12 | 4.71 | 5.22 | 0.51 | 5.04 | 0.33 | 3.76 | -0.95 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 1.65 | 4.19 | 2.54 | 4.08 | 2.43 | 2.93 | 1.28 | 3.83 | 2.18 | 1.65 | 4.2 | 2.55 | 4.08 | 2.43 | 2.93 | 1.28 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | 6.91 | 6 | -0.91 | 5.9 | -1.01 | 6.76 | -0.15 | 7.36 | 0.45 | 6.91 | 6.01 | -0.9 | 5.9 | -1.01 | 6.76 | -0.15 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 3.6 | 3.62 | 0.02 | 3.57 | -0.03 | 3.96 | 0.36 | 3.03 | -0.57 | 3.6 | 3.62 | 0.02 | 3.57 | -0.03 | 3.96 | 0.36 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 4.15 | 4.69 | 0.54 | 4.74 | 0.59 | 5.69 | 1.54 | 6.39 | 2.24 | 4.15 | 4.69 | 0.54 | 4.74 | 0.59 | 5.69 | 1.54 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 1.4 | 2.52 | 1.12 | 2.35 | 0.95 | 1.55 | 0.15 | 2.74 | 1.34 | 1.4 | 2.53 | 1.13 | 2.35 | 0.95 | 1.55 | 0.15 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 5.1 | 4.39 | -0.71 | 4.27 | -0.83 | 5.1 | 0 | 6.34 | 1.24 | 5.1 | 4.39 | -0.71 | 4.27 | -0.83 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 3.38 | 5.17 | 1.79 | 5.28 | 1.9 | 4.12 | 0.74 | 5.10 | 1.72 | 3.38 | 5.17 | 1.79 | 5.28 | 1.9 | 4.12 | 0.74 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 4.34 | 2.91 | -1.43 | 2.69 | -1.65 | 3.44 | -0.9 | 2.05 | -2.29 | 4.34 | 2.91 | -1.43 | 2.69 | -1.65 | 3.44 | -0.9 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 3 | 2.27 | -0.73 | 2.17 | -0.83 | 2.92 | -0.08 | 1.33 | -1.67 | 3 | 2.27 | -0.73 | 2.17 | -0.83 | 2.92 | -0.08 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 2.7 | 3.54 | 0.84 | 3.95 | 1.25 | 3.2 | 0.5 | 5.59 | 2.89 | 2.7 | 3.54 | 0.84 | 3.95 | 1.25 | 3.2 | 0.5 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 2.55 | 3.67 | 1.12 | 3.81 | 1.26 | 3.56 | 1.01 | 3.12 | 0.57 | 2.55 | 3.67 | 1.12 | 3.81 | 1.26 | 3.56 | 1.01 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 4.75 | 3.72 | -1.03 | 3.92 | -0.83 | 4.35 | -0.4 | 5.53 | 0.78 | 4.75 | 3.73 | -1.02 | 3.92 | -0.83 | 4.35 | -0.4 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 6.23 | 3.62 | -2.61 | 3.41 | -2.82 | 3.69 | -2.54 | 6.08 | -0.15 | 6.23 | 3.63 | -2.6 | 3.41 | -2.82 | 3.69 | -2.54 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 6.26 | 3.2 | -3.06 | 3.21 | -3.05 | 4.3 | -1.96 | 2.42 | -3.84 | 6.26 | 3.2 | -3.06 | 3.21 | -3.05 | 4.3 | -1.96 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 6.33 | 4.47 | -1.86 | 4.48 | -1.85 | 5.81 | -0.52 | 4.68 | -1.65 | 6.33 | 4.47 | -1.86 | 4.48 | -1.85 | 5.81 | -0.52 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | MIA | 4.71 | 4.76 | 0.05 | 4.84 | 0.13 | 4.47 | -0.24 | 5.55 | 0.84 | 4.71 | 4.76 | 0.05 | 4.84 | 0.13 | 4.47 | -0.24 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 6.57 | 4.55 | -2.02 | 4.64 | -1.93 | 4.13 | -2.44 | 6.68 | 0.11 | 6.57 | 4.56 | -2.01 | 4.64 | -1.93 | 4.13 | -2.44 |
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 44.3 GB% – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.2 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Garrett | CIN | 0.283 | 0.286 | 0.003 | 49.3% | 0.194 | 4.8% | 85.4% | 91.3 | 6.00% | 6.00% | 67 |
| Andrew Cashner | TEX | 0.272 | 0.250 | -0.022 | 45.7% | 0.196 | 6.3% | 90.6% | 86 | 4.30% | 4.30% | 46 |
| Brett Anderson | CHC | 0.281 | 0.303 | 0.022 | 52.2% | 0.299 | 8.3% | 88.0% | 89.4 | 6.00% | 6.00% | 67 |
| Clayton Kershaw | LOS | 0.287 | 0.239 | -0.048 | 45.1% | 0.165 | 11.4% | 87.2% | 86 | 6.50% | 6.50% | 92 |
| Daniel Norris | DET | 0.311 | 0.342 | 0.031 | 41.7% | 0.25 | 8.3% | 88.1% | 86.9 | 9.50% | 9.50% | 74 |
| Dylan Bundy | BAL | 0.298 | 0.264 | -0.034 | 30.4% | 0.283 | 18.4% | 86.6% | 86.8 | 7.50% | 7.50% | 93 |
| Dylan Covey | CHW | 0.261 | 0.319 | 0.058 | 50.0% | 0.18 | 0.0% | 92.7% | 88.8 | 8.00% | 8.00% | 50 |
| Gerrit Cole | PIT | 0.304 | 0.279 | -0.025 | 47.1% | 0.161 | 3.1% | 86.2% | 86.8 | 7.70% | 7.70% | 91 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.272 | 0.189 | -0.083 | 32.5% | 0.275 | 6.3% | 84.1% | 87.8 | 7.50% | 7.50% | 40 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 0.289 | 0.303 | 0.014 | 47.0% | 0.227 | 10.0% | 74.8% | 84 | 3.00% | 3.00% | 67 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 0.291 | 0.286 | -0.005 | 41.5% | 0.245 | 15.6% | 84.0% | 87.5 | 7.20% | 7.20% | 97 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.277 | 0.286 | 0.009 | 33.3% | 0.238 | 2.8% | 88.3% | 84.8 | 3.50% | 3.50% | 86 |
| Lance McCullers | HOU | 0.274 | 0.342 | 0.068 | 55.4% | 0.203 | 5.6% | 88.2% | 86 | 7.80% | 7.80% | 77 |
| Luis Severino | NYY | 0.279 | 0.217 | -0.062 | 55.6% | 0.143 | 10.5% | 85.8% | 89.2 | 10.90% | 10.90% | 64 |
| Marco Estrada | TOR | 0.298 | 0.289 | -0.009 | 40.3% | 0.117 | 2.7% | 77.4% | 88.3 | 6.30% | 6.30% | 79 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.317 | 0.277 | -0.04 | 37.3% | 0.224 | 3.7% | 86.0% | 83.2 | 5.90% | 5.90% | 68 |
| Rick Porcello | BOS | 0.287 | 0.326 | 0.039 | 42.9% | 0.173 | 12.8% | 86.1% | 90.2 | 13.30% | 13.30% | 98 |
| Robert Gsellman | NYM | 0.315 | 0.377 | 0.062 | 57.1% | 0.257 | 8.3% | 87.8% | 86 | 4.20% | 4.20% | 71 |
| Trevor Bauer | CLE | 0.316 | 0.328 | 0.012 | 40.3% | 0.21 | 16.7% | 84.2% | 90.4 | 12.70% | 12.70% | 63 |
| Vince Velasquez | PHI | 0.279 | 0.291 | 0.012 | 43.3% | 0.2 | 13.6% | 84.1% | 90.9 | 8.30% | 8.30% | 60 |
| Wei-Yin Chen | MIA | 0.272 | 0.273 | 0.001 | 35.4% | 0.215 | 7.1% | 87.3% | 85.5 | 4.30% | 4.30% | 69 |
| Zach Davies | MIL | 0.314 | 0.386 | 0.072 | 44.0% | 0.19 | 9.7% | 90.1% | 85.3 | 8.10% | 8.10% | 86 |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
This is a really deep board on a short slate. Several of the omitted pitchers might be, probably will be, fine tonight. There are really only about five guys you can make an extremely strong case against. The options below just appear to have more value potential. I opted for dominance potential and lower priced upside in most cases. It’s a bad day to be running short on time.
Value Tier One
Luis Severino has been giving up all weak ground balls and striking out battres. Without expecting him to sustain this level of dominance, he still costs $8.5K or less on either site and faces a floundering offense.
Value Tier Two
Amir Garrett is probably much too cheap on DK ($5.5K). A 41.8 Hard% and 91.3 mph aEV are a bit harder than you’d like and I’d probably use every pitcher listed today before him on FD (plus a few omitted), but three of his four starts have been of the quality variety and you’re going to need a cheap arm to pair with Kershaw.
Clayton Kershaw (1) is the most expensive pitcher on either site by thousands of fake dollars, almost three and a half of them on FanDuel. He has been great, yet not as dominant, though he may still have another level in the tank. The Giants have been terrible, but should not remain nearly this bad.
Value Tier Three
Jason Vargas is having success in ways that nobody can pinpoint. Despite a season low of five strikeouts in his last start, he had a season high 17.1 SwStr%. It becomes difficult to argue with after a full month of this. He still costs just $7.4K on DraftKings.
Lance McCullers might give you seven innings of pure dominance. He’s the most likely to give you something like you’d expect from vintage Kershaw on his best day. However, he costs quite a bit and might give you something much less.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Gerrit Cole has shown some signs over his last couple of starts with more strikeouts each time than he had in any start last year. He’s simply throwing a ton of strikes. We don’t want to go over-board on such a small sample and he’s not really cheap, but merits some considerations if there’s a chance he has some strikeout upside again.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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