Advanced Stats - Pitching: Monday, September 17th
After a break yesterday, it’s a bleaker pitching outlook tonight. There’s just one high priced pitcher tonight and the only other strikeout rate above 23% is in Colorado. If you’re playing daily fantasy baseball though, you have to use a pitcher (and on some sites two). Somebody has to be the best, even if the best is not very good.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Stewart | LOS | 1.6 | 4.92 | 4.75 | 1.03 | 1.07 | 4.98 | 7.01 | ARI | 98 | 88 | 154 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | -4.2 | 4.58 | 5.75 | 1.17 | 1.04 | 4.35 | 4.44 | TAM | 104 | 99 | 105 |
| Edwin Jackson | SDG | -8.3 | 4.88 | 5.2 | 1.06 | 1.37 | 5.16 | 3.01 | COL | 100 | 96 | 91 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | -5.1 | 4.38 | 6.13 | 1.16 | 0.87 | 4.44 | 4.6 | NYM | 100 | 93 | 78 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 3.7 | 3.97 | 5.77 | 1.81 | 0.92 | 3.88 | 2.85 | ANA | 100 | 102 | 56 |
| James Paxton | SEA | -4.3 | 4.05 | 5.58 | 1.61 | 0.9 | 3.95 | 3.45 | HOU | 105 | 101 | 91 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 5.9 | 4.91 | 4.55 | 1 | 1.04 | 4.31 | CHW | 91 | 103 | 102 | |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 5.3 | 4.13 | 6.55 | 1.15 | 0.89 | 4.06 | 3.01 | STL | 107 | 106 | 30 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 0.4 | 4.16 | 5.6 | 1.16 | 1.02 | 3.79 | 4.68 | FLA | 98 | 93 | 78 |
| Jon Gray | COL | -1.1 | 3.87 | 5.43 | 1.41 | 1.37 | 3.51 | 5.26 | SDG | 80 | 82 | 89 |
| Jose Urena | FLA | 3.9 | 4.92 | 5.51 | 1.54 | 1.02 | 4.87 | 3.57 | PHI | 72 | 81 | 84 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | -0.4 | 3.95 | 5.13 | 1.26 | 1.04 | 4.14 | 3.96 | BAL | 108 | 109 | 102 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 4.1 | 4.51 | 5.61 | 1.12 | 1.04 | 4.49 | 4.92 | KAN | 91 | 83 | 64 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 7.2 | 4.07 | 5.67 | 1.02 | 0.9 | 4.42 | 5.98 | SEA | 114 | 108 | 113 |
| Mike Leake | STL | -6.7 | 4.02 | 6.21 | 2.03 | 0.89 | 3.77 | 4.27 | SFO | 111 | 98 | 114 |
| Raul Alcantara | OAK | -8.6 | 5.48 | 4.1 | 0.93 | 1.07 | 5.48 | TEX | 108 | 98 | 93 | |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 5.2 | 4.29 | 5.76 | 1.17 | 0.92 | 4.38 | 4.63 | TOR | 96 | 102 | 92 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | -0.3 | 4.17 | 6.24 | 1.17 | 0.87 | 4.5 | 4.06 | MIN | 99 | 96 | 69 |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | -9.8 | 4.39 | 5.77 | 1.36 | 1.07 | 4.03 | 4.48 | LOS | 91 | 107 | 52 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 0.8 | 3.23 | 5.86 | 1.05 | 1.07 | 3.63 | 3.31 | OAK | 97 | 92 | 137 |
Brock Stewart struck out more than 25% of batters with a walk rate of 5.1% or less (so a 20+ K-BB%) at three different levels of the minors this season. He’s had four starts in the majors (plus one long relief appearance in which he walked four of 15 batters). In two of those starts, he struck out exactly one batter (vs ARI, COL) and in the other two, a combined 15 of 42 batters (vs CHC, MIL). Throw the 16.1 HR/FB out the window because four of them came in Colorado. A lot of his numbers look ugly here, but there is some talent here. It’s a difficult park tonight, but an offense that really struggles against RHP (15.4 K-BB%).
Francisco Liriano has a 24.1 K% with a league average walk rate (8.3%) in the 31 innings since being traded. He has allowed six HRs, but that’s not a big surprise with the significant park and division downgrade. He gets a park upgrade tonight, facing the lowest strikeout rate in baseball (16.7% vs LHP), but also a low power (10.9 HR/FB vs LHP) and ice cold offense.
James Paxton is one of the hardest throwers in the majors, averaging nearly 97 mph on his fastball this season, but has only been able to generate a 21.6 K% out of that. It works though, because he’s only walked 5% of the batters he’s faced. His biggest drawback has been an inability to generate a lot of weak contact. His 13.4 Soft% would be lowest in baseball by a full point and a half with enough innings to qualify. The good news is that it’s been a more acceptable 17.6% since the All-Star break. His results haven’t been very strong since returning from the DL last month, but his peripherals remain strong (17.2 K-BB%). He faces a patient and dangerous offense against LHP, but with great control in a negative run environment, he should be able to navigate his way to a decent or better performance here, getting a boost from their 23.1 K% vs LHP.
Jeff Samardzija has struck out nearly a quarter of the batters he’s faced over the last month, going seven innings in three of his five starts as he tried to salvage his first season in San Francisco after signing a rather large contract. His perfectly league average 12.5 K-BB% is exactly the same as last year, while his hard contact rate is five points higher, but he’s generating more ground balls in a much friendlier park. The Cardinals are normally a very difficult offense on the road and vs RHP, but are the coldest offense on the board (26.0 K%, 5.0 HR/FB over the last week) in an incredibly negative run environment.
Matt Andriese has started eight games since the start of August. Five of them have been against other AL East teams, three in difficult road parks. Thus, he has allowed 11 HRs with a 7.62 ERA, but ERAs that double their estimators generally don’t last. In fact, his hard contact rate is a very reasonable 29% and he has a borderline elite 19.7 K-BB%. That mark would tie him for 12th with Corey Kluber among qualified pitchers. It may be incredibly difficult waiting on them, but better results are coming. Unfortunately, he’s in another rough spot, facing the Orioles (17.3 HR/FB vs RHP) at home (17.2 HR/FB at home).
Seth Lugo has allowed too much hard contact (40%), but has decent peripherals (12.9 K-BB%) through his first 48.2 major league innings, his last five outings as a starter. He faces a slightly below average Minnesota offense, but without a couple of bats that normally bat in the middle of the order with Sano banged up and the loss of the DH In an NL park. It’s also a greatly negative run environment against an offense with a 24.1 K% on the road.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.1 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Miguel Gonzalez (.297 – 72.1 – 7.6) started his career with a 9.8 HR/FB in just over 100 innings in 2012 and had increased substantially every year since until this one. While he’s in a more favorable park now because most parks aren’t as power friendly as Baltimore, he’s still allowing the same amount of hard contact in the air. It’s not a lot (1.11 GB/FB, 29.2 Hard%), but shouldn’t suddenly give him any great suppression skills either. He hasn’t allowed a HR in two starts since returning from the DL either.
Chris Tillman (.277 – 77.7% – 10.8) was surprisingly allowed to throw more than 100 pitches in his first start in six weeks, turning in a nice performance in Detroit, despite just striking out four of 23 batters. As you can see, none of his numbers are emphasized because they’re not much out of line, though perhaps his HR rate should be higher in this new power happy environment around baseball. Unfortunately, he has just a 10.9 K-BB% this season and has only struck out more than four in a game three times since the middle of June with a high of seven over that span. The Rays strike out 23.9% of the time vs RHP, but it’s still difficult to justify $8K or more here.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Yu Darvish is tonight’s top pitcher and this is the first time I’ve left the top pitcher off the main list, but there are a couple of concerns here. He was pushed back a few days from his originally scheduled start this week. After reaching at least 99 pitches in four straight starts, he’s been held to 95 or less in each of his last two. While he bounced back to strike out nine Angels of all teams last time out, pitching into the seventh inning, I have to wonder if there’s a strict pitch count on a guy who was removed mid-inning after only having allowed four base runners all game. His price tag at least $2.5K more than the next most expensive pitcher on either site in another below average strikeout spot (A’s 18.8 K% vs RHP). I still have him projected for the highest strikeout rate tonight by a decent margin, but still well below his normal standard. If you have the money, by all means, pay up for him, but I’m not sure I’d otherwise be making a significant effort to build lineups around him with a price tag that may be difficult to pay off here.
Mike Leake has struck out just seven of 46 batters since returning from the DL. He should be a fine plug in for his DraftKings cost in a great run environment tonight from a run prevention standpoint, but an already needy strikeout rate probably takes a turn for the worse against the Giants (6.9 K-BB% at home, 8.0 K-BB% vs RHP).
Jon Gray does have an eight and a 10 thrown in there, but has struck out exactly three in five of his last nine starts. His hard contact rate is up to 34.7% with a 31.7 LD% since the start of August. He’s just hit a new career high for professional innings (158.1) in his last outing, so perhaps there’s a bit of fatigue. He should have been an easy fade at Coors tonight, but the Padres (18.6 K-BB% road, 17.3 K-BB% vs RHP) make him a bit more interesting around the $7K to $7.5K mark.
Jeremy Hellickson has been a perfectly average pitcher for the Phillies, perhaps even a bit better. He’s been quite a bit better at home with a 17.8 K-BB% and just a 23.9 Hard%, but still a 14.0 HR/FB in a small park. He’s in a decent spot at an average price here and is probably close to fine as a plug in, but it’s a dangerous park and the Marlins pretty much have all their power back in the lineup.
Ricky Nolasco has been a nearly league average pitcher since the trade in both ERA and estimators and faces an offense that struggles on the road in a great park. His strikeout rate has taken a tumble though (16.4%).
Jose Urena is in a great spot, but has very little upside in his strikeout rate, though he’s done a great job limiting hard contact over his last three starts (22.6%) after allowing a ton of it previously (38.6% in prior six starts).
Shelby Miller costs the minimum on DraftKings, yet interest in him should probably be minimal here. It’s funny that a lot of traditional analysts jumped off the pitcher record bandwagon last year after seeing him end up 6-17 with a 3.02 ERA. Many finally admitted fault with judging a pitcher by his Win/Loss record. The sad thing is that he had a 4.07 xFIP and 4.16 SIERA, so he may not actually have been as good as they were giving him credit for. Fooled Stewart and LaRussa, although he wasn’t nearly this bad. An expectation of a below average pitcher with a terrible park shift should not be a great surprise though.
Ervin Santana has had an 11+ SwStr% in eight straight starts, but has struck out more than six in only two of them. He’s now at 10.1% on the season, but has been above average in each of the last four seasons now with nothing very special in his strikeout rate. His walk rate is also up to 12% over his last four starts. He’s in a decent spot against the Mets in a great park, but this is yet another pitcher I’m not very comfortable paying very much for.
Jason Vargas hasn’t pitched a major league game this year, but did have a 30.1 K-BB% in three AAA starts, pitching 5.2 innings in his most recent one. We should have a pretty good idea the type of pitcher he is (low strikeout, lots of fly balls and popups in a good park with a great defense) and the White Sox have hit LHP fairly well.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Stewart | Dodgers | L2 Years | 18.6% | 10.8% | Road | 17.4% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 4.6% | 9.1% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 18.0% | 8.6% | Home | 19.0% | 9.0% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 4.4% |
| Edwin Jackson | Padres | L2 Years | 16.2% | 10.3% | Road | 14.4% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 6.3% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 18.6% | 7.3% | Road | 19.0% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 11.1% |
| Francisco Liriano | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 24.5% | 10.9% | Road | 23.9% | 11.0% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 3.0% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 20.1% | 7.6% | Home | 20.3% | 6.5% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 4.3% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 13.1% | 6.8% | Home | 18.2% | 5.2% | L14 Days | ||
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 18.8% | 5.6% | Home | 20.0% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 28.9% | 3.9% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 19.4% | 6.3% | Home | 21.4% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 16.9% | 7.8% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Years | 23.9% | 8.2% | Home | 22.3% | 5.7% | L14 Days | 12.0% | 8.0% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 13.2% | 8.3% | Road | 13.4% | 7.8% | L14 Days | 17.0% | 1.9% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | L2 Years | 19.4% | 5.5% | Road | 18.4% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 2.2% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 17.7% | 7.6% | Road | 18.0% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 15.1% | 3.8% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 21.0% | 7.1% | Road | 19.9% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 10.3% | 10.3% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 16.2% | 5.2% | Road | 16.3% | 4.7% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 4.4% |
| Raul Alcantara | Athletics | L2 Years | 9.8% | 4.9% | Road | L14 Days | 9.8% | 4.9% | ||
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 18.1% | 5.8% | Home | 16.3% | 4.5% | L14 Days | 15.7% | 5.9% |
| Seth Lugo | Mets | L2 Years | 19.2% | 6.2% | Home | 19.2% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 1.9% |
| Shelby Miller | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 18.8% | 8.6% | Home | 21.1% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 14.9% | 2.1% |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | L2 Years | 30.1% | 7.3% | Home | 26.9% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 27.7% | 8.5% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.5% | 7.2% | RH | 22.4% | 7.0% | L7Days | 26.2% | 10.3% |
| Rays | Road | 23.4% | 7.4% | RH | 23.9% | 7.6% | L7Days | 24.7% | 6.1% |
| Rockies | Home | 18.8% | 9.2% | RH | 20.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 23.7% | 5.9% |
| Mets | Home | 21.2% | 9.1% | RH | 21.6% | 8.2% | L7Days | 18.6% | 10.8% |
| Angels | Home | 16.4% | 7.8% | LH | 16.7% | 8.4% | L7Days | 19.4% | 8.1% |
| Astros | Road | 22.4% | 9.1% | LH | 23.1% | 9.0% | L7Days | 22.9% | 8.5% |
| White Sox | Road | 21.6% | 7.2% | LH | 21.8% | 7.3% | L7Days | 20.5% | 7.6% |
| Cardinals | Road | 22.1% | 8.6% | RH | 21.1% | 8.6% | L7Days | 26.0% | 7.4% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.1% | 7.2% | RH | 18.9% | 7.2% | L7Days | 19.8% | 5.3% |
| Padres | Road | 25.6% | 7.0% | RH | 24.7% | 7.4% | L7Days | 18.3% | 7.8% |
| Phillies | Home | 24.3% | 7.1% | RH | 23.0% | 6.9% | L7Days | 30.3% | 7.1% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.4% | 8.3% | RH | 21.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 22.0% | 10.2% |
| Royals | Home | 18.9% | 6.6% | RH | 20.1% | 6.6% | L7Days | 22.0% | 5.9% |
| Mariners | Home | 20.7% | 9.1% | RH | 19.8% | 8.2% | L7Days | 14.6% | 6.0% |
| Giants | Home | 16.8% | 9.9% | RH | 17.4% | 9.4% | L7Days | 17.3% | 10.3% |
| Rangers | Home | 19.2% | 8.1% | RH | 20.0% | 7.3% | L7Days | 24.1% | 6.8% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.6% | 9.6% | RH | 22.5% | 9.8% | L7Days | 20.2% | 11.6% |
| Twins | Road | 24.1% | 8.5% | RH | 21.8% | 8.2% | L7Days | 24.7% | 9.2% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.5% | 8.6% | RH | 21.1% | 8.2% | L7Days | 23.2% | 5.3% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.5% | 7.6% | RH | 18.8% | 7.4% | L7Days | 16.3% | 10.9% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Stewart | Dodgers | L2 Years | 34.7% | 16.1% | 11.1% | 2016 | 34.7% | 16.1% | 11.1% | Road | 34.3% | 35.7% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 42.1% | 0.0% | 15.8% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 29.3% | 10.4% | 10.7% | 2016 | 32.5% | 10.8% | 13.8% | Home | 29.6% | 9.4% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 0.0% | 5.5% |
| Edwin Jackson | Padres | L2 Years | 29.1% | 9.5% | 13.3% | 2016 | 32.7% | 11.0% | 17.9% | Road | 32.2% | 8.2% | 16.1% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 8.3% | 6.7% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 28.7% | 10.0% | 11.2% | 2016 | 29.6% | 10.3% | 10.8% | Road | 28.2% | 8.6% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 16.7% | 25.0% |
| Francisco Liriano | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 29.1% | 15.2% | 5.8% | 2016 | 34.8% | 20.2% | 14.7% | Road | 27.8% | 13.4% | 7.7% | L14 Days | 34.8% | 50.0% | 17.4% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 30.3% | 9.1% | 15.0% | 2016 | 32.0% | 8.5% | 18.6% | Home | 32.2% | 8.7% | 16.6% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 10.0% | 14.7% |
| Jason Vargas | Royals | L2 Years | 36.0% | 8.8% | 17.7% | 2016 | Home | 35.6% | 3.8% | 17.0% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 29.1% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 2016 | 31.9% | 12.1% | 13.9% | Home | 30.5% | 11.3% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 34.3% | 8.3% | 11.4% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 30.5% | 13.4% | 11.9% | 2016 | 26.3% | 13.5% | 5.3% | Home | 28.1% | 13.5% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 5.6% | 3.5% |
| Jon Gray | Rockies | L2 Years | 32.6% | 12.2% | 13.8% | 2016 | 31.4% | 13.0% | 13.5% | Home | 32.0% | 15.2% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 11.1% | 12.8% |
| Jose Urena | Marlins | L2 Years | 30.6% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 2016 | 31.4% | 9.7% | 9.2% | Road | 31.1% | 9.2% | 11.9% | L14 Days | 23.8% | 0.0% | 11.9% |
| Matt Andriese | Rays | L2 Years | 33.1% | 11.6% | 15.6% | 2016 | 33.2% | 12.0% | 17.3% | Road | 35.8% | 11.4% | 18.7% | L14 Days | 30.6% | 14.3% | 11.2% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | White Sox | L2 Years | 29.1% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 2016 | 29.2% | 7.6% | 11.6% | Road | 28.7% | 11.9% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 0.0% | -4.7% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 34.6% | 13.1% | 16.6% | 2016 | 36.0% | 15.5% | 19.2% | Road | 32.5% | 11.7% | 13.9% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 16.7% | 16.1% |
| Mike Leake | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.5% | 15.0% | 14.0% | 2016 | 31.7% | 14.8% | 14.9% | Road | 31.2% | 13.5% | 14.3% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 22.2% | 13.5% |
| Raul Alcantara | Athletics | L2 Years | 48.4% | 14.3% | 41.9% | 2016 | 48.4% | 14.3% | 41.9% | Road | L14 Days | 48.4% | 14.3% | 41.9% | |||
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 32.7% | 11.4% | 16.3% | 2016 | 34.3% | 12.0% | 18.8% | Home | 29.4% | 10.0% | 12.3% | L14 Days | 28.2% | 8.3% | 12.8% |
| Seth Lugo | Mets | L2 Years | 40.0% | 6.3% | 26.4% | 2016 | 40.0% | 6.3% | 26.4% | Home | 41.2% | 7.7% | 22.1% | L14 Days | 37.2% | 15.4% | 20.9% |
| Shelby Miller | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 29.6% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 2016 | 35.0% | 13.3% | 20.7% | Home | 29.9% | 9.0% | 13.7% | L14 Days | 38.5% | 0.0% | 28.2% |
| Yu Darvish | Rangers | L2 Years | 28.0% | 12.0% | 4.3% | 2016 | 28.0% | 12.0% | 4.3% | Home | 32.3% | 12.0% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 20.7% | 11.1% | -10.3% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diamondbacks | Home | 35.1% | 17.4% | 19.9% | RH | 32.7% | 12.4% | 15.4% | L7Days | 41.0% | 31.3% | 28.6% |
| Rays | Road | 32.2% | 15.1% | 13.9% | RH | 33.0% | 14.8% | 13.6% | L7Days | 34.1% | 21.3% | 15.7% |
| Rockies | Home | 35.1% | 15.9% | 18.8% | RH | 32.7% | 14.6% | 15.4% | L7Days | 34.3% | 8.7% | 16.2% |
| Mets | Home | 34.5% | 13.8% | 13.0% | RH | 33.8% | 13.5% | 15.3% | L7Days | 35.0% | 9.1% | 12.3% |
| Angels | Home | 30.0% | 11.2% | 11.6% | LH | 29.9% | 10.9% | 10.2% | L7Days | 28.9% | 7.9% | 11.7% |
| Astros | Road | 33.8% | 14.4% | 16.9% | LH | 34.0% | 14.6% | 17.1% | L7Days | 44.1% | 18.0% | 35.5% |
| White Sox | Road | 30.1% | 11.5% | 11.8% | LH | 30.9% | 13.5% | 13.1% | L7Days | 29.8% | 10.9% | 12.2% |
| Cardinals | Road | 33.5% | 15.6% | 16.5% | RH | 34.5% | 15.0% | 17.2% | L7Days | 28.8% | 5.0% | 11.1% |
| Marlins | Road | 29.8% | 10.5% | 9.8% | RH | 29.6% | 9.7% | 9.2% | L7Days | 27.4% | 4.1% | 5.6% |
| Padres | Road | 30.9% | 14.4% | 11.7% | RH | 30.4% | 12.9% | 11.2% | L7Days | 25.9% | 7.8% | 6.6% |
| Phillies | Home | 24.8% | 12.1% | 3.0% | RH | 28.8% | 13.0% | 7.5% | L7Days | 26.2% | 13.3% | 3.6% |
| Orioles | Home | 33.5% | 17.2% | 12.3% | RH | 33.0% | 17.3% | 12.9% | L7Days | 29.9% | 19.2% | 14.6% |
| Royals | Home | 31.0% | 9.0% | 11.5% | RH | 29.9% | 9.6% | 10.1% | L7Days | 27.9% | 7.8% | 12.6% |
| Mariners | Home | 32.0% | 16.7% | 13.5% | RH | 31.8% | 15.0% | 14.1% | L7Days | 34.1% | 13.6% | 20.9% |
| Giants | Home | 26.7% | 7.6% | 5.7% | RH | 29.7% | 8.5% | 9.7% | L7Days | 33.0% | 11.1% | 14.4% |
| Rangers | Home | 31.1% | 14.4% | 11.8% | RH | 30.8% | 14.4% | 11.8% | L7Days | 29.8% | 15.3% | 11.8% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 33.0% | 14.9% | 13.2% | RH | 33.5% | 15.3% | 15.2% | L7Days | 36.9% | 14.1% | 18.1% |
| Twins | Road | 30.6% | 13.5% | 11.2% | RH | 31.4% | 12.8% | 13.1% | L7Days | 24.0% | 10.1% | 1.7% |
| Dodgers | Road | 34.1% | 12.9% | 17.8% | RH | 34.6% | 15.7% | 18.0% | L7Days | 32.8% | 11.5% | 18.4% |
| Athletics | Road | 30.2% | 12.8% | 9.6% | RH | 29.3% | 10.1% | 9.9% | L7Days | 31.5% | 13.5% | 10.4% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.12 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Stewart | LOS | 18.6% | 11.4% | 1.63 | 22.0% | 13.2% | 1.67 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 19.9% | 8.8% | 2.26 | 10.0% | 5.2% | 1.92 |
| Edwin Jackson | SDG | 15.8% | 8.8% | 1.80 | 18.9% | 6.7% | 2.82 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 19.1% | 10.1% | 1.89 | 23.8% | 14.3% | 1.66 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 22.6% | 11.3% | 2.00 | 29.1% | 14.7% | 1.98 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 21.2% | 11.6% | 1.83 | 21.5% | 12.2% | 1.76 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | ||||||
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 19.0% | 9.0% | 2.11 | 24.4% | 9.8% | 2.49 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 20.3% | 11.0% | 1.85 | 19.8% | 9.9% | 2.00 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 24.6% | 11.7% | 2.10 | 22.1% | 11.9% | 1.86 |
| Jose Urena | FLA | 15.7% | 8.6% | 1.83 | 16.1% | 7.3% | 2.21 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 20.7% | 10.4% | 1.99 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.26 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 17.6% | 8.3% | 2.12 | 15.1% | 6.4% | 2.36 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 17.7% | 9.0% | 1.97 | 17.1% | 10.3% | 1.66 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 16.7% | 7.1% | 2.35 | 20.0% | 7.4% | 2.70 |
| Raul Alcantara | OAK | 9.8% | 3.0% | 3.27 | 9.8% | 3.0% | 3.27 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 17.3% | 9.1% | 1.90 | 16.1% | 10.7% | 1.50 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | 19.2% | 9.3% | 2.06 | 17.8% | 8.7% | 2.05 |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | 15.3% | 7.3% | 2.10 | 13.7% | 8.2% | 1.67 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 30.1% | 12.2% | 2.47 | 27.3% | 11.2% | 2.44 |
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.31 SIERA – 4.25 xFIP – 4.31 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Stewart | LOS | 6.55 | 4.92 | -1.63 | 5.29 | -1.26 | 5.87 | -0.68 | 0.9 | 4.65 | 3.75 | 5.07 | 4.17 | 2.54 | 1.64 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 3.68 | 4.56 | 0.88 | 4.47 | 0.79 | 4.19 | 0.51 | 7.88 | 6.72 | -1.16 | 6.87 | -1.01 | 6.39 | -1.49 |
| Edwin Jackson | SDG | 5.32 | 5.26 | -0.06 | 5.26 | -0.06 | 4.95 | -0.37 | 5.23 | 4.99 | -0.24 | 4.9 | -0.33 | 5.47 | 0.24 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 3.53 | 4.36 | 0.83 | 4.26 | 0.73 | 3.9 | 0.37 | 3.94 | 4.16 | 0.22 | 3.89 | -0.05 | 4.39 | 0.45 |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 5.16 | 4.53 | -0.63 | 4.39 | -0.77 | 5.19 | 0.03 | 3.26 | 3.39 | 0.13 | 3.31 | 0.05 | 4.69 | 1.43 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 3.97 | 3.74 | -0.23 | 3.55 | -0.42 | 3.02 | -0.95 | 5.75 | 3.61 | -2.14 | 3.34 | -2.41 | 3.04 | -2.71 |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | ||||||||||||||
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 4.07 | 4.29 | 0.22 | 4.14 | 0.07 | 4.03 | -0.04 | 3.19 | 3.77 | 0.58 | 3.53 | 0.34 | 2.85 | -0.34 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 3.76 | 4.15 | 0.39 | 4.01 | 0.25 | 4.08 | 0.32 | 4.3 | 4.45 | 0.15 | 4.36 | 0.06 | 4.23 | -0.07 |
| Jon Gray | COL | 4.69 | 3.86 | -0.83 | 3.72 | -0.97 | 3.73 | -0.96 | 5.33 | 4.17 | -1.16 | 3.77 | -1.56 | 3.07 | -2.26 |
| Jose Urena | FLA | 4.89 | 4.61 | -0.28 | 4.65 | -0.24 | 4.24 | -0.65 | 2.3 | 4.26 | 1.96 | 4.03 | 1.73 | 3.46 | 1.16 |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 4.46 | 3.9 | -0.56 | 3.98 | -0.48 | 3.84 | -0.62 | 8.17 | 3.89 | -4.28 | 4.09 | -4.08 | 4.84 | -3.33 |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 3.82 | 4.61 | 0.79 | 4.59 | 0.77 | 3.79 | -0.03 | 2.08 | 4.92 | 2.84 | 5.19 | 3.11 | 2.6 | 0.52 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 4.64 | 4.39 | -0.25 | 4.29 | -0.35 | 4.65 | 0.01 | 4.91 | 4.53 | -0.38 | 4.36 | -0.55 | 4.04 | -0.87 |
| Mike Leake | STL | 4.6 | 3.9 | -0.7 | 3.74 | -0.86 | 3.94 | -0.66 | 3.12 | 3.68 | 0.56 | 3.46 | 0.34 | 3.6 | 0.48 |
| Raul Alcantara | OAK | 7.27 | 5.46 | -1.81 | 7.02 | -0.25 | 7.3 | 0.03 | 7.27 | 5.48 | -1.79 | 7.02 | -0.25 | 7.3 | 0.03 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 4.94 | 4.43 | -0.51 | 4.48 | -0.46 | 4.34 | -0.6 | 4.15 | 4.31 | 0.16 | 4.08 | -0.07 | 3.98 | -0.17 |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | 2.4 | 4.17 | 1.77 | 4.27 | 1.87 | 3.41 | 1.01 | 2.18 | 4.31 | 2.13 | 4.21 | 2.03 | 3.66 | 1.48 |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | 7.12 | 5.11 | -2.01 | 5.02 | -2.1 | 5.07 | -2.05 | 7.04 | 4.57 | -2.47 | 4.4 | -2.64 | 2.43 | -4.61 |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 3.28 | 3.23 | -0.05 | 3.36 | 0.08 | 3.24 | -0.04 | 4.15 | 3.75 | -0.4 | 4.1 | -0.05 | 3.44 | -0.71 |
Francisco Liriano has a 20.6 HR/FB on the season. It’s shocking not only because he’s pitched most the season in a park that crushes RH power, but also because it’s nearly double his 11.6 career HR/FB. His 25 HRs are already a career high by four in just 144.2 innings. His 34.8 Hard% is up five full points over his previous career high, but that still should not translate into such a high HR rate. The trade to Toronto obviously doesn’t help his case, but there should still be some regression here. He is a ground ball pitcher with just 124 fly balls on the season.
James Paxton has just an 8.5 HR/FB that shows up in his FIP, but his ERA and other estimators are balanced out by a .354 BABIP and 65.8 LOB%. While it would appear that a lack of hard contact is showing up in his BABIP rather than HR rate, his LD rate is only 21.9%. He has only generated five popups this year though.
Matt Andriese has a .375 BABIP, 62.2 LOB% and 20 HR/FB through eight starts since the beginning of August. The high BABIP, particularly, is stunning with a 0.91 GB/FB, 20 IFFB% and 19.8 LD%. As mentioned above, his hard hit rate is less than 30%.
Seth Lugo has just a .241 BABIP and 6.3 HR/FB that’s led to an 81.6% strand rate. He’s allowed a HR in each of his last three starts after not allowing any over his first 28 major league innings, a bit of a surprise with a 40% hard contact rate.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.3 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Stewart | LOS | 0.284 | 0.328 | 0.044 | 0.113 | 6.5% | 80.3% |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 0.302 | 0.277 | -0.025 | 0.224 | 7.2% | 85.3% |
| Edwin Jackson | SDG | 0.300 | 0.303 | 0.003 | 0.21 | 8.5% | 86.9% |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.321 | 0.287 | -0.034 | 0.22 | 6.9% | 88.2% |
| Francisco Liriano | TOR | 0.285 | 0.297 | 0.012 | 0.187 | 4.0% | 89.0% |
| James Paxton | SEA | 0.292 | 0.354 | 0.062 | 0.219 | 5.3% | 85.5% |
| Jason Vargas | KAN | 0.296 | |||||
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.285 | 0.281 | -0.004 | 0.199 | 8.4% | 88.1% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 0.303 | 0.279 | -0.024 | 0.248 | 14.0% | 85.1% |
| Jon Gray | COL | 0.314 | 0.306 | -0.008 | 0.251 | 8.1% | 87.2% |
| Jose Urena | FLA | 0.302 | 0.280 | -0.022 | 0.219 | 11.1% | 90.4% |
| Matt Andriese | TAM | 0.297 | 0.304 | 0.007 | 0.192 | 12.0% | 88.5% |
| Miguel Gonzalez | CHW | 0.297 | 0.297 | 0 | 0.228 | 8.3% | 88.3% |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 0.307 | 0.313 | 0.006 | 0.259 | 11.8% | 85.8% |
| Mike Leake | STL | 0.301 | 0.314 | 0.013 | 0.211 | 4.4% | 93.8% |
| Raul Alcantara | OAK | 0.302 | 0.345 | 0.043 | 0.129 | 7.1% | 94.3% |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 0.302 | 0.297 | -0.005 | 0.185 | 5.6% | 90.0% |
| Seth Lugo | NYM | 0.307 | 0.241 | -0.066 | 0.224 | 4.2% | 86.6% |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | 0.324 | 0.356 | 0.032 | 0.242 | 9.2% | 87.5% |
| Yu Darvish | TEX | 0.293 | 0.294 | 0.001 | 0.194 | 10.8% | 82.6% |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
If we get more than 20 DK points or 30 FD points (without factoring in Wins) from anyone besides Darvish (or maybe including him) tonight, it’s a win. Pitchers from the top two or three tiers probably make the list most days, but generally wouldn’t be very high up on it.
Value Tier One
Francisco Liriano (2t) would not top our list on many other days, but such are the circumstances tonight. He’s pitched better for the Blue Jays with a 15.8 K-BB% and while that strikeout upside might be hindered on the road against the Angels, he might gain something enough back in a park that suppresses power against an offense that is really struggling.
Value Tier Two
James Paxton (4) is facing a dangerous offense vs LHP, but one that strikes out quite a bit and in a favorable park. Safeco hasn’t suppressed power in recent years like it used to, but it’s still considered a negative run environment.
Jeff Samardzija (2t) comes into this game with one of his stronger trailing months over the last two seasons. He’s in a great park, facing a good, but ice cold offense and they will look to him for innings if he’s pitching well. It’s a little dangerous being asked to pay nearly $10K (DK) here, but there don’t seem to be many better options, though I’d really grade almost every pitcher listed here about evenly on a point per dollar basis on DraftKings tonight, giving Liriano the slight edge.
Value Tier Three
Matt Andriese is in another rough spot today and his results have been terrible since being moved into the rotation, but his peripherals are great, while his batted ball and contact profiles would suggest a lot better.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Seth Lugo is not nearly as good as his ERA suggests, but might be nearly a league average pitcher with decent peripherals. He’s also in a great spot against an AL offense that loses the DH in a pitcher’s park for less than $6K on DraftKings.
Brock Stewart has had a K-BB above 20% at three levels of the minors this season and while we usually lean more towards major league numbers here, he has shown that upside in two of his four starts, despite striking out just two total in his other two starts. He’s probably not necessary today, but costs the minimum on DraftKings.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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