Advanced Stats - Pitching: Saturday, August 6th
While this is the second straight larger than usual Saturday night slate (11 games) it might be a shorter article than usual because there don’t appear to be many usable pitchers, at least at their current prices. The chalk is fairly obvious tonight, even if in a poor matchup for strikeouts. There are a few other interesting pitchers, but Tyler Skaggs is $10.4K on one site. I won’t tell you which one though. Another piece of the Cole Hamels trade makes their debut for the Phillies.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | TeamDef | SIERAL2Yrs | IP/GSL2Yrs | GB/FBL2Yrs | ParkRun | Hm/RdxFIP | SIERAL14 | Opp | OppHm/Rd | Opp L/RwRC+ | Opp L7wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 5.7 | 3.85 | 6.41 | 2.73 | 1.04 | 3.61 | 4.1 | KAN | 101 | 85 | 46 |
| Andrew Cashner | FLA | 3.8 | 4.09 | 5.76 | 1.4 | 1.37 | 4.66 | 4.59 | COL | 103 | 92 | 99 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | -6.5 | 3.66 | 6.14 | 2.09 | 0.97 | 3.5 | 6.25 | ATL | 75 | 78 | 87 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 2.2 | 4.12 | 5.78 | 1.41 | 0.99 | 4 | 3.73 | BAL | 97 | 85 | 92 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 1.9 | 4.11 | 5.76 | 1.86 | 1.37 | 3.54 | 4.22 | FLA | 101 | 96 | 96 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | -3.3 | 4.39 | 5.86 | 1.13 | 0.99 | 4.82 | 3.83 | CHW | 93 | 87 | 111 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 5.3 | 3.96 | 5.5 | 0.92 | 1.04 | 4.6 | 2.96 | TOR | 98 | 103 | 77 |
| Doug Fister | HOU | 8.2 | 4.51 | 6.11 | 1.37 | 1.01 | 4.72 | 4.08 | TEX | 89 | 92 | 59 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | -0.8 | 4.22 | 6. | 1.95 | 0.95 | 4.73 | 3.93 | PIT | 115 | 97 | 59 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | -3 | 4.29 | 5.53 | 1.72 | 0.95 | 4.73 | 4.56 | CIN | 80 | 85 | 83 |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | -1.3 | 4.62 | 5.43 | 1.27 | 1.01 | 4.49 | 5 | DET | 111 | 107 | 120 |
| Lucas Harrell | TEX | 6.1 | 5.21 | 5.85 | 1.1 | 1.01 | 5.62 | 5.92 | HOU | 93 | 97 | 29 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | -6.8 | 4.5 | 4.82 | 0.76 | 1.01 | 4.66 | 3.32 | NYM | 87 | 101 | 91 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 4.8 | 4.84 | 5.09 | 0.86 | 1.02 | 5.06 | 4.91 | WAS | 96 | 95 | 120 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | -7.9 | 4.58 | 5.48 | 1.49 | 1.07 | 4.92 | 3.82 | ARI | 90 | 86 | 58 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | -7.3 | 4.1 | 5.53 | 1.81 | 1.07 | 3.8 | 4.12 | MIL | 83 | 98 | 103 |
| Paul Clemens | SDG | -5.9 | 5.39 | 4.78 | 0.72 | 0.86 | 6.01 | 3.94 | PHI | 90 | 80 | 85 |
| Roberto Hernandez | ATL | 0.2 | 4.67 | 5.46 | 1.63 | 0.97 | 4.51 | STL | 102 | 112 | 67 | |
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 5.2 | 2.89 | 6.12 | 1.18 | 1.02 | 3.07 | 4.03 | SFO | 92 | 101 | 88 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | -4.9 | 3.68 | 5.73 | 1.07 | 0.9 | 3.39 | ANA | 103 | 102 | 118 | |
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 3.8 | 3.11 | 6.05 | 1.88 | 0.9 | 3.55 | 3.11 | SEA | 112 | 100 | 84 |
Aaron Sanchez is a weak ground ball machine (57.5% – third in baseball, 5.7 Hard-Soft%). There’s been talk about limiting his innings and his velocity is down a bit over his last three starts, but he’s gone seven innings in each and eight in two of the three before that. He has league average strikeout and walk rates (13.6 K-BB%), but the SwStr% barely supports that and he’s struck out five or less in six of his last seven. He’s in a good spot tonight in Kansas City. It’s an offense that won’t take walks, has a sub-10 HR/FB at home and vs RHP and a 17.7 K-BB% over the last week.
Carlos Rodon struck out seven in his return from the DL and has kept his walk rate just below eight this season for a 14.6 K-BB%, while his hard hit rate is just 28.1%. He’s allowed two HRs in each of his last three starts with RHBs owning 16 of his 17 this year. They don’t hit it any harder (28.2% to 28.1% hard hit rate), but it’s in the air much more often (41.2 GB% to 57.4% vs LHBs). The wOBA by split is separated by 150 points this year. The Orioles generally only play two to three LHBs and Davis may be the only one who regularly plays vs LHP. Still, Baltimore has struggled greatly against LHP. So much so that there are only four offenses that are worse (via wRC+). They have a 21.7 K% against southpaws and a whopping 17.0 K-BB% on the road.
Patrick Corbin misses bats at nearly a league average rate, but he gets hit REALLY hard, especially at home, where he has allowed 14 HRs with a 45.2 Hard% this year. The matchup is the interesting part of this. You might think of the Brewers as a ton of RH power and strikeouts and you would be at least half right. They have moderate power against LHP (14.1 HR/FB) with a monster walk rate (11.7%), but strike out 24.5% of the time.
Stephen Strasburg is the chalk tonight. You don’t need to be sold on him. There is some concern in facing the second lowest strikeout rate on the board vs RHP tonight (17%), but that’s not nearly enough to move off him tonight. He has the highest strikeout rate on the board (30.7%) and still projects for something approaching a quarter of batters faced tonight.
Tyler Skaggs has struck out 13 of 46 since returning from getting his Tommy John fixed. He had just a 4.6 SwStr% in his first start, but at least a 9.3% one in his second. He hasn’t allowed a run, with a 50% ground ball rate and -3.3 Hard-Soft%. That’s great stuff, but not really what he’s done in his 180 previous major league innings, where he was a perfectly league average pitcher in just about every way you can look up. The Mariners have a ton of power (17.1 HR/FB at home, 17.4 HR/FB vs LHP), but are otherwise average in a negative run environment.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72 LOB% – 13.1 HR/FB)
Doug Fister (.265 – 77.9 – 10.9) has significantly more real life than daily fantasy value because he just dominates RHBs with ground balls, but still only has a 9.6 K-BB% against them. The Rangers haven’t done well against RHP, but have some LH power. LHBs have a .363 wOBA and 12 HRs against him, while his GB rate drops 19.1 points to 37.9% when facing them. Stack your lefties against Fister in good parks.
Chris Tillman (.275 – 79% – 10.3) isn’t even striking out batters at an above average rate anymore (just 16.1% over his last nine starts). He did allow just one HR in six July starts though.
Lucas Harrell (.250 – 72.4% – 7.3) has just a 5.4 K-BB%. While he’s limited hard contact to just 23.4%, he has a really low 12.1% weak contact rate too with a ground ball rate 10 points below his career average (53.4%).
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Danny Duffy struck out 16 of 26 Rays the day they traded away two of their top four hitters against LHP. While the strikeout rate has enormous potential at just under 30% now, he matched his season high with 110 pitches and generally has great difficulty the third time through the order, though he’s hit the 26 batter mark in each of his last seven starts, after not doing it in any of his first eight. He’s going to have a bit of a tougher time with the Blue Jays, who can throw a lot of RH power out there and have just a 10.3 K-BB% vs LHP. He has struck out 27.6% of RHBs, but they also have 12 of his 13 HRs. Batters have an ISO above .200 on every pitch except the slider on the third time through the order. They have an ISO above .200 on NONE of his pitches before that. He’s $3.3K less and about as reasonable a play as other playable arms I have listed below on FanDuel. I do have him rated second best overall tonight.
Carlos Martinez faces the Braves. He has, what I consider, tonight’s second best park adjusted matchup (Phillies in Petco are better). Let’s get that out of the way first. The Braves don’t hit the ball hard and have little power (though a bit more probably with Kemp eventually). The numbers are below. He has the sixth best ground ball rate in baseball (55.9%), but it used to be better (top three) and his hard and soft contact is separated by more than 10 points (average), while his strikeout rate has dropped just below average to give him an 11.2 K-BB%. He’s walked four in three of his last four with a total of just 12 strikeouts over his last three and a velocity drop to 94.5 mph (his lowest of the season) in his last start, which is a more than a mph less than his season average. He has a 41.1 GB% and 35.1 Hard% over his last three starts. He may find his way against Atlanta, but opposition is the only reason to consider paying more than $9K for a pitcher who appears to be in peril tonight.
Ivan Nova has allowed a HR in 14 of 15 starts this season. He has been striking out more batters recently and has a 54.3 GB% this season. I’m interested to see how he’ll fair with the significant park upgrade and he faces a Cincinnati team that lines up almost entirely from the right side (at least with most of their competent bats) in a park that destroys RH power. He does have a 35.6 Hard% though and the Pirates have allowed a BAIBP above .300 this year. I think he has a chance to be interesting in Pittsburgh, but can’t necessarily say I trust him too much with all that hard contact.
Taijuan Walker returns from the DL (foot) to face the lowest strikeout rate in baseball (15.4% vs RHP). It’s odd that he’s avoided his division rival in 16 starts this season, but consider that he has struck out more than six in just three of them despite the above average K%.
Chad Bettis generates a ground ball rate above 50% at home and has been missing more bats recently. He’s a reverse splits guy and that could actually play into the power in the Marlins lineup.
Matt Boyd has a below average SwStr% over the last month. It has not budged from his season rate. I’m not buying into the K% spike at all. He’s had a hard hit rate above 35% in each of his last three starts, allowing three HRs in his last two.
Andrew Cashner struck out 23 of 66 batters in his last three starts for San Diego, but just two of 23 Cardinals in his first for the Marlins and now gets a trip to Colorado. The good news is he doesn’t need Tommy John Surgery (yet?), so the Marlins get to keep at least one of the guys they traded for. Or, considering some Miami transactions in recent years, is that really good news?
If Matt Cain were pitching in Pittsburgh tonight, it would be the Nova Cain matchup (not as good as the Phillies Eflin J.Eickhoff tandem), which might be what you’d need to numb you enough to watch such a thing.
Paul Clemens might be in tonight’s top spot against the Phillies in Petco. Unfortunately, the Phillies are facing Paul Clemens, who has allowed eight HRs with just 16 strikeouts and 11 walks in his four starts, though with 10 Ks and just three walks in his two San Diego starts. He hasn’t exceeded five innings in an outing this year.
Roberto Hernandez is yes, THAT “(player-popup)Roberto Hernandez”:/players/roberto-hernandez-10974…..or Fausto Carmona.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 19.4% | 9.0% | Road | 20.8% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 7.7% |
| Andrew Cashner | Marlins | L2 Years | 19.7% | 7.6% | Road | 17.1% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 6.5% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 22.6% | 8.3% | Home | 21.7% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 12.7% | 14.6% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Years | 22.7% | 10.1% | Home | 23.4% | 10.5% | L14 Days | 25.9% | 7.4% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Years | 18.7% | 7.4% | Home | 19.0% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 10.0% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 18.8% | 8.3% | Road | 16.7% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 21.3% | 6.4% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 21.7% | 7.4% | Home | 19.0% | 7.2% | L14 Days | 32.1% | 6.4% |
| Doug Fister | Astros | L2 Years | 14.9% | 6.3% | Home | 13.5% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 22.0% | 8.0% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Years | 17.0% | 8.0% | Road | 12.2% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 26.1% | 13.0% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 16.6% | 7.0% | Home | 15.7% | 8.3% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 10.0% |
| Logan Verrett | Mets | L2 Years | 17.3% | 9.4% | Road | 18.2% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 10.0% |
| Lucas Harrell | Rangers | L2 Years | 15.5% | 10.1% | Road | 14.8% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 18.8% | 7.5% | Home | 19.3% | 8.1% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 2.5% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 15.8% | 7.6% | Road | 16.0% | 6.8% | L14 Days | 20.9% | 11.6% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 16.1% | 8.3% | Road | 14.1% | 8.9% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 6.5% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 19.1% | 7.5% | Home | 20.3% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 11.8% |
| Paul Clemens | Padres | L2 Years | 18.6% | 13.7% | Home | 16.9% | 13.9% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 10.0% |
| Roberto Hernandez | Braves | L2 Years | 13.0% | 8.0% | Road | 11.4% | 7.3% | L14 Days | ||
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.6% | 5.8% | Home | 30.2% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 26.0% | 8.0% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | L2 Years | 22.2% | 5.4% | Home | 26.0% | 4.1% | L14 Days | ||
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | L2 Years | 28.3% | 6.5% | Road | 20.8% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 28.3% | 6.5% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royals | Home | 18.1% | 6.6% | RH | 20.3% | 6.1% | L7Days | 23.5% | 5.8% |
| Rockies | Home | 18.4% | 9.4% | RH | 20.2% | 7.8% | L7Days | 20.3% | 9.3% |
| Braves | Road | 20.6% | 7.1% | RH | 19.9% | 8.1% | L7Days | 19.4% | 6.9% |
| Orioles | Road | 23.9% | 6.9% | LH | 21.7% | 8.3% | L7Days | 23.5% | 5.9% |
| Marlins | Road | 20.1% | 7.2% | RH | 18.9% | 7.3% | L7Days | 17.3% | 8.0% |
| White Sox | Home | 20.6% | 8.4% | RH | 20.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 14.5% | 7.5% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.7% | 9.4% | LH | 19.9% | 9.6% | L7Days | 31.7% | 8.8% |
| Rangers | Road | 20.7% | 6.1% | RH | 19.9% | 7.0% | L7Days | 23.0% | 4.5% |
| Pirates | Home | 19.8% | 9.0% | RH | 20.9% | 7.9% | L7Days | 23.9% | 10.0% |
| Reds | Road | 21.9% | 7.0% | RH | 21.6% | 7.3% | L7Days | 18.4% | 7.2% |
| Tigers | Home | 20.3% | 7.8% | RH | 21.5% | 7.3% | L7Days | 19.9% | 7.4% |
| Astros | Home | 24.6% | 9.5% | RH | 24.2% | 9.4% | L7Days | 26.3% | 4.7% |
| Mets | Road | 23.0% | 7.4% | LH | 22.4% | 8.4% | L7Days | 22.1% | 7.4% |
| Nationals | Home | 18.7% | 9.5% | RH | 19.6% | 9.1% | L7Days | 18.0% | 7.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 24.0% | 6.7% | RH | 23.4% | 6.6% | L7Days | 24.4% | 6.3% |
| Brewers | Road | 25.5% | 9.6% | LH | 24.5% | 11.7% | L7Days | 22.6% | 10.4% |
| Phillies | Road | 20.5% | 6.8% | RH | 21.5% | 6.8% | L7Days | 20.0% | 11.0% |
| Cardinals | Home | 19.4% | 8.7% | RH | 20.1% | 9.0% | L7Days | 18.2% | 7.9% |
| Giants | Road | 18.0% | 8.3% | RH | 17.0% | 9.5% | L7Days | 18.0% | 9.6% |
| Angels | Road | 15.8% | 7.7% | RH | 15.4% | 7.8% | L7Days | 15.6% | 9.4% |
| Mariners | Home | 20.7% | 9.1% | LH | 21.3% | 7.7% | L7Days | 22.4% | 9.2% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 24.4% | 12.5% | 4.1% | 2016 | 27.7% | 11.2% | 5.7% | Road | 23.2% | 9.6% | 1.2% | L14 Days | 23.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Cashner | Marlins | L2 Years | 30.7% | 12.2% | 14.6% | 2016 | 33.1% | 15.7% | 20.2% | Road | 28.5% | 14.0% | 11.3% | L14 Days | 47.1% | 21.4% | 35.3% |
| Carlos Martinez | Cardinals | L2 Years | 27.6% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 2016 | 29.3% | 9.6% | 10.8% | Home | 26.5% | 12.2% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 34.2% | 7.1% | 13.1% |
| Carlos Rodon | White Sox | L2 Years | 28.2% | 12.9% | 10.0% | 2016 | 28.2% | 16.2% | 11.3% | Home | 27.2% | 13.5% | 9.7% | L14 Days | 44.4% | 25.0% | 33.3% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Years | 31.4% | 12.7% | 14.9% | 2016 | 31.2% | 14.4% | 13.7% | Home | 33.0% | 13.4% | 16.0% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 11.1% | -3.0% |
| Chris Tillman | Orioles | L2 Years | 28.2% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 2016 | 31.0% | 10.3% | 11.0% | Road | 28.4% | 11.9% | 9.2% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 11.1% | 18.2% |
| Danny Duffy | Royals | L2 Years | 31.5% | 9.3% | 11.6% | 2016 | 33.8% | 10.9% | 12.0% | Home | 33.7% | 9.7% | 13.4% | L14 Days | 42.6% | 4.5% | 25.6% |
| Doug Fister | Astros | L2 Years | 28.9% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 2016 | 30.3% | 10.9% | 10.4% | Home | 29.0% | 9.1% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 41.2% | 0.0% | 20.6% |
| Homer Bailey | Reds | L2 Years | 38.7% | 15.8% | 22.7% | 2016 | 14.3% | 0.0% | -14.3% | Road | 32.8% | 18.8% | 15.6% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 0.0% | -14.3% |
| Ivan Nova | Pirates | L2 Years | 33.9% | 17.2% | 14.9% | 2016 | 35.6% | 21.3% | 16.2% | Home | 31.8% | 14.8% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 47.1% | 25.0% | 38.3% |
| Logan Verrett | Mets | L2 Years | 31.3% | 12.9% | 17.0% | 2016 | 33.6% | 13.6% | 20.8% | Road | 30.7% | 14.3% | 16.9% | L14 Days | 34.0% | 5.3% | 24.0% |
| Lucas Harrell | Rangers | L2 Years | 23.4% | 7.3% | 11.2% | 2016 | 23.4% | 7.3% | 11.2% | Road | 17.2% | 4.2% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 14.3% | 8.3% |
| Matt Boyd | Tigers | L2 Years | 34.3% | 16.1% | 16.2% | 2016 | 34.7% | 13.6% | 13.4% | Home | 34.4% | 13.1% | 17.2% | L14 Days | 48.2% | 23.1% | 33.4% |
| Matt Cain | Giants | L2 Years | 32.6% | 14.4% | 11.6% | 2016 | 29.2% | 14.0% | 5.2% | Road | 38.8% | 18.2% | 21.2% | L14 Days | 21.4% | 14.3% | -3.6% |
| Matt Garza | Brewers | L2 Years | 34.8% | 13.8% | 17.3% | 2016 | 38.0% | 10.9% | 19.9% | Road | 30.9% | 10.5% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 14.3% | 13.9% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 35.9% | 15.8% | 19.8% | 2016 | 38.7% | 18.3% | 22.9% | Home | 39.1% | 16.8% | 25.9% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 0.0% | 9.4% |
| Paul Clemens | Padres | L2 Years | 45.6% | 25.0% | 27.9% | 2016 | 45.6% | 25.0% | 27.9% | Home | 38.6% | 30.0% | 20.4% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 20.0% | -23.1% |
| Roberto Hernandez | Braves | L2 Years | 30.5% | 13.3% | 15.5% | 2016 | Road | 34.6% | 12.2% | 22.4% | L14 Days | ||||||
| Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | L2 Years | 26.6% | 12.4% | 5.6% | 2016 | 25.1% | 10.5% | 2.8% | Home | 25.9% | 13.0% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 0.0% | -12.1% |
| Taijuan Walker | Mariners | L2 Years | 28.5% | 14.0% | 9.9% | 2016 | 27.2% | 18.4% | 4.6% | Home | 27.7% | 14.4% | 7.4% | L14 Days | |||
| Tyler Skaggs | Angels | L2 Years | 20.0% | 0.0% | -3.3% | 2016 | 20.0% | 0.0% | -3.3% | Road | 27.8% | 0.0% | 11.1% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 0.0% | -3.3% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Royals | Home | 30.9% | 9.8% | 9.8% | RH | 29.5% | 9.2% | 9.6% | L7Days | 28.5% | 11.3% | 12.8% |
| Rockies | Home | 35.1% | 15.7% | 18.6% | RH | 32.5% | 13.9% | 14.6% | L7Days | 37.0% | 16.7% | 18.5% |
| Braves | Road | 26.1% | 8.8% | 5.6% | RH | 27.2% | 7.9% | 8.2% | L7Days | 30.8% | 4.3% | 15.1% |
| Orioles | Road | 31.9% | 13.7% | 12.9% | LH | 32.0% | 11.9% | 11.2% | L7Days | 30.5% | 21.2% | 14.3% |
| Marlins | Road | 30.7% | 9.9% | 10.8% | RH | 30.2% | 9.8% | 9.8% | L7Days | 34.3% | 6.4% | 10.8% |
| White Sox | Home | 29.6% | 12.5% | 8.6% | RH | 29.0% | 11.3% | 9.1% | L7Days | 33.9% | 13.1% | 14.0% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 32.8% | 15.2% | 13.4% | LH | 34.2% | 13.5% | 15.0% | L7Days | 36.1% | 17.5% | 17.4% |
| Rangers | Road | 31.4% | 15.0% | 12.0% | RH | 30.4% | 13.9% | 10.5% | L7Days | 28.7% | 13.9% | 5.6% |
| Pirates | Home | 31.1% | 11.9% | 11.0% | RH | 29.5% | 10.5% | 8.6% | L7Days | 31.9% | 10.9% | 11.2% |
| Reds | Road | 29.1% | 10.6% | 10.2% | RH | 30.3% | 12.4% | 12.3% | L7Days | 24.9% | 8.2% | 9.1% |
| Tigers | Home | 32.8% | 14.2% | 16.1% | RH | 32.5% | 14.4% | 15.2% | L7Days | 31.4% | 14.7% | 12.4% |
| Astros | Home | 32.8% | 14.8% | 14.5% | RH | 33.3% | 14.1% | 15.7% | L7Days | 24.7% | 1.7% | 4.0% |
| Mets | Road | 32.7% | 13.2% | 16.1% | LH | 32.7% | 13.7% | 11.4% | L7Days | 30.6% | 14.1% | 11.2% |
| Nationals | Home | 31.7% | 13.2% | 13.7% | RH | 33.3% | 12.8% | 16.4% | L7Days | 33.2% | 12.5% | 16.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 34.9% | 16.3% | 19.5% | RH | 32.6% | 12.8% | 15.3% | L7Days | 26.3% | 13.0% | 12.5% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.0% | 12.5% | 9.1% | LH | 32.2% | 14.1% | 14.1% | L7Days | 32.2% | 18.4% | 14.4% |
| Phillies | Road | 31.9% | 11.7% | 11.7% | RH | 28.3% | 12.4% | 7.0% | L7Days | 30.1% | 11.1% | 15.6% |
| Cardinals | Home | 33.8% | 13.1% | 16.1% | RH | 33.9% | 14.8% | 16.2% | L7Days | 33.1% | 10.0% | 16.2% |
| Giants | Road | 32.5% | 11.3% | 13.6% | RH | 30.8% | 8.7% | 11.4% | L7Days | 25.6% | 7.8% | 5.8% |
| Angels | Road | 30.1% | 8.9% | 9.7% | RH | 30.5% | 9.3% | 11.7% | L7Days | 31.6% | 15.9% | 10.2% |
| Mariners | Home | 31.9% | 17.1% | 13.7% | LH | 30.3% | 17.4% | 9.8% | L7Days | 23.1% | 18.5% | -0.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.14 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 20.8% | 8.0% | 2.60 | 18.6% | 6.9% | 2.70 |
| Andrew Cashner | FLA | 18.7% | 7.3% | 2.56 | 25.0% | 9.8% | 2.55 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 19.9% | 8.8% | 2.26 | 22.1% | 10.5% | 2.10 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 22.4% | 9.4% | 2.38 | 25.9% | 11.1% | 2.33 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 17.9% | 9.1% | 1.97 | 20.6% | 11.3% | 1.82 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 21.0% | 9.1% | 2.31 | 19.7% | 8.4% | 2.35 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 29.2% | 14.3% | 2.04 | 30.0% | 13.2% | 2.27 |
| Doug Fister | HOU | 15.8% | 6.1% | 2.59 | 16.5% | 7.3% | 2.26 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 26.1% | 9.0% | 2.90 | 26.1% | 9.0% | 2.90 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 17.8% | 9.3% | 1.91 | 20.8% | 10.5% | 1.98 |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | 15.5% | 8.2% | 1.89 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 1.74 |
| Lucas Harrell | TEX | 15.5% | 7.5% | 2.07 | 14.3% | 7.3% | 1.96 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 20.8% | 8.3% | 2.51 | 27.7% | 8.5% | 3.26 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 16.4% | 7.9% | 2.08 | 17.5% | 7.1% | 2.46 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 13.3% | 7.4% | 1.80 | 12.8% | 8.6% | 1.49 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 17.4% | 9.1% | 1.91 | 18.8% | 8.8% | 2.14 |
| Paul Clemens | SDG | 18.6% | 5.1% | 3.65 | 23.5% | 5.2% | 4.52 |
| Roberto Hernandez | ATL | ||||||
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 30.7% | 11.2% | 2.74 | 29.2% | 10.9% | 2.68 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 22.4% | 9.6% | 2.33 | |||
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 28.3% | 7.0% | 4.04 | 28.3% | 7.0% | 4.04 |
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.31 ERA – 4.27 SIERA – 4.21 xFIP – 4.26 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | SeasonERA | SeasonSIERA | DIFF | SeasonxFIP | DIFF | SeasonFIP | DIFF | ERAL30 | SIERAL30 | DIFF | xFIPL30 | DIFF | FIPL30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 2.71 | 3.69 | 0.98 | 3.47 | 0.76 | 3.34 | 0.63 | 1.73 | 3.78 | 2.05 | 3.98 | 2.25 | 2.71 | 0.98 |
| Andrew Cashner | FLA | 4.54 | 4.49 | -0.05 | 4.55 | 0.01 | 4.95 | 0.41 | 4.78 | 3.61 | -1.17 | 4.12 | -0.66 | 5.56 | 0.78 |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 2.99 | 4.13 | 1.14 | 4.02 | 1.03 | 3.71 | 0.72 | 3.38 | 4.64 | 1.26 | 4.65 | 1.27 | 4.42 | 1.04 |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 4.67 | 4.03 | -0.64 | 4.04 | -0.63 | 4.51 | -0.16 | 7.11 | 3.73 | -3.38 | 3.97 | -3.14 | 5.97 | -1.14 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 5.16 | 4.13 | -1.03 | 3.91 | -1.25 | 4.08 | -1.08 | 3.09 | 4.18 | 1.09 | 3.8 | 0.71 | 3.88 | 0.79 |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 3.46 | 4.4 | 0.94 | 4.36 | 0.9 | 4.03 | 0.57 | 3.13 | 4.74 | 1.61 | 4.71 | 1.58 | 3.29 | 0.16 |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 2.98 | 3.06 | 0.08 | 3.46 | 0.48 | 3.19 | 0.21 | 2.7 | 3.02 | 0.32 | 3.29 | 0.59 | 2.38 | -0.32 |
| Doug Fister | HOU | 3.56 | 4.82 | 1.26 | 4.71 | 1.15 | 4.44 | 0.88 | 3.23 | 4.93 | 1.7 | 4.99 | 1.76 | 2.93 | -0.3 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 3.18 | 3.9 | 0.72 | 3.48 | 0.3 | 2.6 | -0.58 | 3.18 | 3.93 | 0.75 | 3.48 | 0.3 | 2.6 | -0.58 |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 4.9 | 4 | -0.9 | 4.06 | -0.84 | 5.08 | 0.18 | 4.37 | 4.21 | -0.16 | 4.37 | 0 | 6.13 | 1.76 |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | 4.2 | 5.02 | 0.82 | 4.93 | 0.73 | 5.03 | 0.83 | 4.5 | 5.17 | 0.67 | 4.97 | 0.47 | 4.23 | -0.27 |
| Lucas Harrell | TEX | 3.57 | 5.21 | 1.64 | 5.28 | 1.71 | 4.46 | 0.89 | 3.99 | 5.48 | 1.49 | 5.57 | 1.58 | 4.97 | 0.98 |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 4.71 | 4.18 | -0.53 | 4.42 | -0.29 | 4.54 | -0.17 | 2.21 | 3.19 | 0.98 | 3.7 | 1.49 | 3.82 | 1.61 |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 5.53 | 4.9 | -0.63 | 5.04 | -0.49 | 5.24 | -0.29 | 6.39 | 5.26 | -1.13 | 5.83 | -0.56 | 8.34 | 1.95 |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 5.32 | 4.76 | -0.56 | 4.66 | -0.66 | 4.42 | -0.9 | 6.66 | 4.74 | -1.92 | 4.62 | -2.04 | 5.66 | -1 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 5.3 | 4.54 | -0.76 | 4.35 | -0.95 | 4.98 | -0.32 | 6.93 | 4.84 | -2.09 | 4.73 | -2.2 | 4.83 | -2.1 |
| Paul Clemens | SDG | 4.7 | 5.39 | 0.69 | 5.75 | 1.05 | 7.96 | 3.26 | 3.75 | 4.46 | 0.71 | 4.85 | 1.1 | 5.88 | 2.13 |
| Roberto Hernandez | ATL | ||||||||||||||
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 2.63 | 3.12 | 0.49 | 3.16 | 0.53 | 2.88 | 0.25 | 2.38 | 3.45 | 1.07 | 3.73 | 1.35 | 2.92 | 0.54 |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 3.66 | 3.77 | 0.11 | 3.9 | 0.24 | 4.72 | 1.06 | |||||||
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 0 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.83 | 2.83 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 0 | 3.11 | 3.11 | 2.83 | 2.83 | 1.75 | 1.75 |
Aaron Sanchez has a 79.1 LOB% that suggests a decent amount of regression. His .272 BABIP shouldn’t be much of a problem though. He generates excellent contact and has a good defense behind him. He also has a low line drive rate and is one of the few elite ground ball guys that gets a significant rate of popups too. I do have concerns about his strikeout rate remaining above 20% going forward though.
Carlos Rodon does not allow a lot of hard contact (28% to either side of the plate), but RHBs are able to elevate a lot more. They have a .367 BABIP despite a normal LD rate and a reasonable 9.8 IFFB%. It does seem a bit fluky that they have both that and a 17.4 HR/FB against him without a horrible profile. It does make sense that teams stack RHBs against him. He made just two starts in July, separated by four weeks.
Patrick Corbin has allowed a ton of hard contact, which has led to a .320 BABIP and 64.2 LOB% with an 18.3 HR/FB. Most of the damage takes place at home, where his ERA jumps nearly three points.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 20.8 LD% – 9.4 IFFB% – 87.3 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Sanchez | TOR | 0.276 | 0.272 | -0.004 | 0.204 | 10.1% | 87.3% |
| Andrew Cashner | FLA | 0.299 | 0.280 | -0.019 | 0.189 | 5.6% | 90.9% |
| Carlos Martinez | STL | 0.294 | 0.269 | -0.025 | 0.177 | 3.2% | 88.2% |
| Carlos Rodon | CHW | 0.297 | 0.351 | 0.054 | 0.205 | 11.4% | 88.0% |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 0.311 | 0.328 | 0.017 | 0.228 | 4.8% | 87.4% |
| Chris Tillman | BAL | 0.299 | 0.275 | -0.024 | 0.215 | 8.3% | 85.1% |
| Danny Duffy | KAN | 0.295 | 0.286 | -0.009 | 0.202 | 11.8% | 78.4% |
| Doug Fister | HOU | 0.307 | 0.265 | -0.042 | 0.188 | 6.5% | 92.7% |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 0.287 | 0.286 | -0.001 | 0.143 | 0.0% | 95.0% |
| Ivan Nova | PIT | 0.304 | 0.297 | -0.007 | 0.173 | 11.2% | 93.0% |
| Logan Verrett | NYM | 0.303 | 0.276 | -0.027 | 0.218 | 3.7% | 90.9% |
| Lucas Harrell | TEX | 0.287 | 0.250 | -0.037 | 0.173 | 9.8% | 90.8% |
| Matt Boyd | DET | 0.305 | 0.282 | -0.023 | 0.197 | 20.3% | 86.2% |
| Matt Cain | SFO | 0.286 | 0.309 | 0.023 | 0.234 | 18.3% | 88.5% |
| Matt Garza | MIL | 0.304 | 0.331 | 0.027 | 0.188 | 4.3% | 93.0% |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 0.320 | 0.320 | 0 | 0.199 | 3.7% | 92.5% |
| Paul Clemens | SDG | 0.298 | 0.233 | -0.065 | 0.154 | 12.5% | 88.3% |
| Roberto Hernandez | ATL | 0.286 | |||||
| Stephen Strasburg | WAS | 0.285 | 0.258 | -0.027 | 0.199 | 8.1% | 84.8% |
| Taijuan Walker | SEA | 0.293 | 0.259 | -0.034 | 0.181 | 13.3% | 85.9% |
| Tyler Skaggs | ANA | 0.302 | 0.233 | -0.069 | 0.233 | 0.0% | 86.0% |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
We’re doing away with tiers again today because it’s all really a mess. Here’s just a few words on the pitchers that appear playable on each site.
The Best
Stephen Strasburg (1) should be in a ton of lineups tonight. His strikeout rate will probably take a hit against the Giants, but it’s not nearly significant enough, especially on this board. It would probably push him to the third tier on a standard day, but he’s still probably the top play on either site, both in an overall sense and in terms of projected value.
The Rest
Carlos Rodon will face a mostly RH lineup for the Orioles and that might be a problem for him. There are a few really good RHBs in that group, but just a few because most of that lineup has struggled greatly against LHP. For just $6.2K, he might have as much point per dollar upside as anybody on the board on DraftKings, though a more moderate choice along with the rest of the group here on FanDuel.
Aaron Sanchez is probably safe, as far as you can say that about any pitcher, and is someone I would consider at a high price on today’s board despite how much I dislike paying up for contact dependent outcomes. He’s one of the best contact generators in the game in a great spot and has also given you at least seven innings in five of six starts. The concerns are the strikeout rate and Toronto potentially placing restrictions on his innings or pitch count, although that may not happen immediately.
Patrick Corbin could get smashed at home tonight, but he’s also one of just a few pitchers who are projected for an above average strikeout rate and definitely the lowest priced of those.
COME ON DraftKings!!!
Tyler Skaggs is a perfectly league average pitcher who has looked good in two starts back from surgery, at least in the second one. He’s a perfectly reasonable choice for $6.5K on FanDuel. He costs just a tick under $4K more on DraftKings, where the pricing algorithm gets overly excited when it thinks it sees something shiny.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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