Advanced Stats - Pitching: Saturday, July 2nd
Happy Fourth of July weekend to everyone. Saturday night is an odd slate as we rarely have very many 10pm games on weekends, but that covers five of tonight’s eight games with only three at 7pm. I suspect you have better things to do this weekend than listen to the ramblings of a daily fantasy pitching writer, so we’ll now get to today’s arms.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | -5 | 4.03 | 6.15 | 1.13 | 0.87 | 3.75 | 5.34 | CHC | 111 | 105 | 117 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 1.6 | 4.13 | 5.67 | 1.85 | 0.9 | 4.24 | 3.78 | LOS | 91 | 92 | 92 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 0.5 | 5.71 | 5. | 0.57 | 0.95 | 5.71 | OAK | 81 | 87 | 122 | |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 4.9 | 3.95 | 6.24 | 1.41 | 1.07 | 4.19 | 5.06 | ANA | 97 | 97 | 128 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | -2.7 | 4.77 | 5.57 | 0.87 | 1.02 | 4.54 | 6.31 | WAS | 98 | 93 | 119 |
| Drew Pomeranz | SDG | -5.3 | 3.66 | 5.5 | 1.18 | 0.86 | 3.71 | 3.16 | NYY | 76 | 85 | 85 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 2.3 | 4.54 | 5.32 | 0.63 | 1.07 | 5.07 | 5.16 | BOS | 118 | 106 | 101 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | -2.4 | 4.37 | 5.52 | 1.76 | 0.86 | 3.97 | 5.71 | SDG | 91 | 78 | 95 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 7.6 | 3.01 | 6.73 | 2.21 | 0.87 | 2.88 | 4.58 | NYM | 95 | 94 | 79 |
| James Paxton | SEA | -4 | 4.12 | 5.44 | 1.74 | 0.9 | 3.97 | 4.37 | BAL | 107 | 95 | 142 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 8.5 | 3.88 | 6.7 | 1.16 | 1.07 | 4.33 | 5.35 | ARI | 92 | 92 | 110 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 4.3 | 3.92 | 5.83 | 1.43 | 1.02 | 3.52 | 3.78 | CIN | 80 | 80 | 69 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | -5.3 | 4.01 | 5.63 | 1.76 | 1.07 | 3.7 | 6.45 | SFO | 99 | 103 | 136 |
| Rich Hill | OAK | -12.4 | 3.25 | 6.2 | 1.39 | 0.95 | 3.85 | PIT | 95 | 109 | 83 | |
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | 0.6 | 4.06 | 5.78 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 3.88 | 5.08 | COL | 86 | 90 | 125 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | -5.2 | 5.03 | 5.59 | 1.41 | 0.9 | 4.67 | 5.67 | SEA | 110 | 112 | 114 |
Chad Bettis hasn’t been very good on the road, but generally misses bats at a respectable (if still below league average) rate and keeps the ball on the ground 51.4% over the time this year, though nine of his 12 HRs have actually come on the road. Okay, we could comb for reasons why he’s usable today, but mostly it’s the Dodgers. They’re a below average offense in a negative run environment.
Drew Pomeranz has allowed at least three runs in four of his last six starts, but none in his other two and has struck out at least six in each. He’s dropped below the 30% strikeout threshold that nobody thought he would hold earlier in the season, but he’s still missing bats at an incredible pace. The biggest issue is a double-digit walk rate (10.9%) that’s held him to just five innings in three of those six starts. He might have tonight’s top park-adjusted matchup. The Yankees are terrible on the road to begin with, and Petco will magnify that as well as their inefficiencies vs LHP.
Jake Arrieta makes his case to start the All-Star game in Kershaw’s place tonight against the man who will be managing the team (and choosing his guy Syndergaard, I would imagine). I’m assuming Terry is an old school Wins and ERA man, but if he weren’t, he’d notice Arrieta’s large gap between his ERA and estimators. Over his last two starts, he’s walked nine and struck out just 10 of 47 batters. His 17.3 K-BB% is outside the top 20 among qualified pitchers. Aside from the 27.1 K%, his biggest strength is tons of weak ground balls (55.3%, -0.4 Hard-Soft%). However, his ground ball rate has been below 40% in each of his last two starts. He does have a pretty strong matchup tonight in a great park against a team with a 22.8 K% vs RHP, but if he can’t keep the ball on the ground or throw strikes, he could be in trouble.
James Paxton returned to the majors firing a 97-mph fastball through six starts. He’s generating tons of swings and misses and lots of strikeouts, but absolutely no weak contact (5.5 Soft%). It hasn’t resulted in a lot of HRs (9.4 HR/FB) or even that high of a line drive rate (22.4%), but still a monstrous BABIP (.415) that I’m going to assume is a lot of extra base hits, resulting in his ERA above four. Baltimore is a difficult opponent who hits the ball hard (16.4 HR/FB on the road), but hasn’t been exceptional vs LHP (22.5 K%) and have an 18.1 K-BB% on the road.
Joe Ross allowed four runs and 10 hits against a Mets offense with lots of LHBs last time out, but also struck out seven. You should know by now about his extreme platoon splits and he appears to be in a very favorable spot tonight. Not only do the Reds have a 15.7 K-BB% vs RHP, but aside from two guys (Votto & Bruce) their other competent or better bats all show up on the right side.
Scott Kazmir walked and struck out four in his last start and struck out just four in previous start. In fact, despite a 23.7 K%, he’s struck out five or fewer in nine of 16 starts and seemed to have all of his better games in May with eight of those starts coming in April and June. Add in the erratic walk rate (four or more in five starts) and HRs (12 in his first nine starts and just two over his last seven) and he might as well just change his name to Hamels because you never know what you’re going to get, although he’s lacking the massive strand rate. The Rockies retain their power vs LHP (15.1 HR/FB) on the road (14.7 HR/FB), but also strike out 23.1% against LHP and have a 15.9 K-BB% away from home.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.295 BABIP – 72.2 LOB% – 12.7 HR/FB)
Bartolo Colon (.291 BABIP – 82.1 LOB% – 10.2 HR/FB) generally wouldn’t be concerning with a low SwStr%. He has exceptional control and gets more called strikes than almost anyone in the game, but he’s not missing any bats anymore and also allowing the highest rate of hard contact of his career (37.7%), but is masking it with a high strand rate. He’s facing a tough offense, but such a highly negative run environment nearly neutralizes that fact. There just doesn’t seem to be much upside.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Rich Hill faced just 13 batters in a high A rehab start last week, but did strike out six. Before that, he last pitched on May 29th before being disabled with a groin injury. Here’s a great snippet about his curveball/pitch usage that’s about a month old, but I just read it yesterday. I recommend reading just about everything Eno writes as his insights are always useful and interesting. Today, he might be just a bit too expensive for a pitcher with such a long layoff, who may be on a lower pitch count.
Ivan Nova has allowed a HR in all 10 of his starts. That could come to an end in Petco, but he’s also lasted five innings or less in each of his last three starts, striking out just 10 of 74 batters. It’s probably going to take more than the Padres (16.9 K-BB% vs RHP) and maybe tonight’s second best matchup to save him.
Jeff Samardzija probably should be missing a few more bats, but his SwStr% over the last month is still below average. I’d say the Giants are disappointed in their purchase, but he’s been about a league average pitcher overall, and maybe that’s what $90 million buys you these days. It’s not like they didn’t have any warning this was possible after last year. He’s not really in a bad spot, but in a tough park tonight.
Clay Buchholz has had a double digit SwStr% in each of his two starts since returning to the rotation. He’s also allowed three HRs and walked six of 44 batters (eight strikeouts). The SwStr% is something to watch, but whatever else the Angels are, they do not strike out (15.7% vs RHP).
Chad Kuhl is a marginal to lowly regarded 23-year-old prospect with back end of the rotation upside. Even though he struck out five of 22 batters in his debut, he walked four, allowed a HR and hasn’t had a strikeout rate above 19% at any stop in the minors. A below average cost in a decent spot in Oakland is not terrible here, but they have just a 17.9 K% vs RHP.
Patrick Corbin has alternated good and bad months this season. Maybe that means July should be good? He starts with a pretty terrible one at home. The Giants appear to have little power against LHP (9.4 HR/FB, 4.9 Hard-Soft%), but that is in part due to a home by the bay and they do strike out just 18.3% of the time vs lefties.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | L2 Years | 16.9% | 3.4% | Home | 19.3% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 6.9% | 3.5% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Years | 18.0% | 7.3% | Road | 17.8% | 8.6% | L14 Days | 19.6% | 7.1% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 22.7% | 18.2% | Road | L14 Days | 22.7% | 18.2% | ||
| Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 19.8% | 7.1% | Home | 19.3% | 6.7% | L14 Days | 18.2% | 13.6% |
| Dan Straily | Reds | L2 Years | 19.4% | 11.0% | Road | 22.0% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 11.1% | 11.1% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Padres | L2 Years | 26.1% | 9.5% | Home | 25.5% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 27.7% | 4.3% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | L2 Years | 20.3% | 9.5% | Road | 18.7% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 12.0% |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | L2 Years | 15.5% | 6.8% | Road | 16.1% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 10.4% | 10.4% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 26.9% | 6.9% | Road | 24.9% | 6.1% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 17.1% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 19.9% | 9.3% | Home | 22.0% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 19.7% | 8.2% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 19.4% | 4.8% | Road | 16.7% | 5.3% | L14 Days | 11.0% | 5.5% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | L2 Years | 21.3% | 6.9% | Home | 20.6% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 4.9% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 19.1% | 6.6% | Home | 20.2% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 7.7% | 15.4% |
| Rich Hill | Athletics | L2 Years | 29.8% | 8.8% | Home | 26.8% | 9.2% | L14 Days | ||
| Scott Kazmir | Dodgers | L2 Years | 21.1% | 8.0% | Home | 23.0% | 8.5% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 10.0% |
| Tyler Wilson | Orioles | L2 Years | 11.2% | 6.2% | Road | 11.9% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 9.3% | 5.6% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | Road | 22.4% | 10.2% | RH | 22.7% | 11.1% | L7Days | 25.6% | 11.1% |
| Dodgers | Home | 19.6% | 8.7% | RH | 20.5% | 8.7% | L7Days | 17.6% | 10.0% |
| Athletics | Home | 17.4% | 6.2% | RH | 17.9% | 7.0% | L7Days | 15.2% | 10.5% |
| Angels | Road | 16.1% | 7.1% | RH | 15.7% | 7.5% | L7Days | 12.9% | 7.5% |
| Nationals | Home | 18.6% | 10.2% | RH | 20.3% | 9.2% | L7Days | 14.9% | 13.5% |
| Yankees | Road | 18.9% | 6.6% | LH | 17.8% | 7.8% | L7Days | 17.6% | 8.4% |
| Red Sox | Home | 17.4% | 9.7% | LH | 19.2% | 10.1% | L7Days | 19.9% | 9.1% |
| Padres | Home | 23.1% | 7.5% | RH | 23.7% | 6.8% | L7Days | 20.7% | 12.0% |
| Mets | Home | 23.5% | 9.4% | RH | 22.8% | 8.5% | L7Days | 23.0% | 5.1% |
| Orioles | Road | 25.3% | 7.2% | LH | 22.5% | 8.0% | L7Days | 21.7% | 6.9% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 24.4% | 7.3% | RH | 23.7% | 6.9% | L7Days | 24.0% | 7.9% |
| Reds | Road | 22.4% | 7.1% | RH | 22.7% | 7.0% | L7Days | 22.1% | 8.3% |
| Giants | Road | 16.7% | 8.6% | LH | 18.3% | 8.7% | L7Days | 16.4% | 9.4% |
| Pirates | Road | 23.3% | 7.7% | LH | 24.0% | 9.6% | L7Days | 20.3% | 8.3% |
| Rockies | Road | 22.9% | 7.0% | LH | 23.1% | 9.8% | L7Days | 19.2% | 9.6% |
| Mariners | Home | 19.7% | 8.5% | RH | 19.4% | 8.6% | L7Days | 19.4% | 7.2% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | L2 Years | 30.9% | 10.0% | 14.5% | 2016 | 37.7% | 10.2% | 22.6% | Home | 32.9% | 10.9% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 14.3% | 42.3% |
| Chad Bettis | Rockies | L2 Years | 31.5% | 12.9% | 15.8% | 2016 | 32.0% | 15.8% | 15.7% | Road | 30.8% | 13.0% | 16.2% | L14 Days | 31.7% | 0.0% | 9.7% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 61.5% | 14.3% | 61.5% | 2016 | 61.5% | 14.3% | 61.5% | Road | L14 Days | 61.5% | 14.3% | 61.5% | |||
| Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | L2 Years | 26.8% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 2016 | 28.2% | 15.2% | 11.2% | Home | 25.4% | 11.3% | 8.8% | L14 Days | 26.7% | 33.3% | 16.7% |
| Dan Straily | Reds | L2 Years | 29.9% | 9.9% | 11.8% | 2016 | 31.4% | 10.9% | 14.7% | Road | 30.4% | 12.3% | 13.3% | L14 Days | 41.2% | 12.5% | 32.4% |
| Drew Pomeranz | Padres | L2 Years | 26.0% | 9.0% | 3.5% | 2016 | 28.0% | 10.1% | 8.7% | Home | 30.2% | 12.7% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 21.4% | 18.8% |
| Hector Santiago | Angels | L2 Years | 33.5% | 10.9% | 17.2% | 2016 | 35.2% | 15.2% | 17.2% | Road | 33.7% | 11.5% | 17.1% | L14 Days | 46.9% | 15.8% | 25.0% |
| Ivan Nova | Yankees | L2 Years | 32.5% | 16.3% | 12.6% | 2016 | 32.9% | 20.6% | 11.4% | Road | 35.3% | 18.8% | 15.5% | L14 Days | 31.6% | 23.1% | 5.3% |
| Jake Arrieta | Cubs | L2 Years | 22.8% | 6.6% | 0.6% | 2016 | 21.9% | 6.2% | -0.4% | Road | 23.1% | 8.2% | 0.6% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 7.7% | 5.4% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 28.6% | 8.3% | 13.4% | 2016 | 30.3% | 9.4% | 24.8% | Home | 32.9% | 8.8% | 17.0% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 27.0% | 11.6% | 8.1% | 2016 | 30.6% | 13.1% | 13.2% | Road | 27.1% | 11.3% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 32.8% | 20.0% | 21.3% |
| Joe Ross | Nationals | L2 Years | 29.9% | 9.9% | 12.9% | 2016 | 29.7% | 10.0% | 13.5% | Home | 28.1% | 7.9% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 39.0% | 12.5% | 22.0% |
| Patrick Corbin | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 35.4% | 15.2% | 18.8% | 2016 | 38.6% | 18.1% | 22.0% | Home | 37.8% | 15.5% | 24.0% | L14 Days | 35.0% | 25.0% | 15.0% |
| Rich Hill | Athletics | L2 Years | 26.4% | 5.0% | 0.9% | 2016 | 28.3% | 3.7% | 2.5% | Home | 33.3% | 3.3% | 8.0% | L14 Days | |||
| Scott Kazmir | Dodgers | L2 Years | 25.2% | 10.3% | 6.4% | 2016 | 23.9% | 15.4% | 1.6% | Home | 23.5% | 6.5% | 4.0% | L14 Days | 35.1% | 18.2% | 18.9% |
| Tyler Wilson | Orioles | L2 Years | 31.8% | 8.5% | 14.9% | 2016 | 32.0% | 10.8% | 13.2% | Road | 34.8% | 7.4% | 19.9% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 17.6% | 6.9% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | Road | 33.3% | 16.0% | 15.3% | RH | 31.6% | 14.1% | 13.1% | L7Days | 37.6% | 21.1% | 20.1% |
| Dodgers | Home | 32.2% | 15.2% | 14.3% | RH | 33.6% | 13.3% | 16.5% | L7Days | 32.1% | 6.9% | 12.8% |
| Athletics | Home | 27.9% | 9.5% | 9.5% | RH | 29.7% | 9.4% | 10.5% | L7Days | 32.4% | 13.9% | 13.3% |
| Angels | Road | 29.2% | 9.7% | 7.0% | RH | 30.4% | 9.1% | 10.5% | L7Days | 33.2% | 9.7% | 17.4% |
| Nationals | Home | 31.4% | 12.4% | 13.7% | RH | 33.0% | 12.9% | 16.1% | L7Days | 37.9% | 9.1% | 23.6% |
| Yankees | Road | 27.8% | 10.3% | 10.5% | LH | 30.4% | 10.0% | 9.5% | L7Days | 34.6% | 13.3% | 22.0% |
| Red Sox | Home | 34.4% | 11.2% | 15.6% | LH | 31.0% | 10.1% | 10.2% | L7Days | 31.9% | 8.9% | 14.1% |
| Padres | Home | 29.9% | 12.1% | 11.2% | RH | 30.7% | 11.7% | 12.2% | L7Days | 33.6% | 13.0% | 10.6% |
| Mets | Home | 35.9% | 13.7% | 14.6% | RH | 35.0% | 14.1% | 17.8% | L7Days | 37.7% | 11.3% | 23.5% |
| Orioles | Road | 32.2% | 16.4% | 13.3% | LH | 33.6% | 14.0% | 12.2% | L7Days | 42.4% | 18.1% | 22.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 35.3% | 16.9% | 19.3% | RH | 33.4% | 14.0% | 15.4% | L7Days | 31.9% | 15.8% | 14.1% |
| Reds | Road | 29.4% | 10.5% | 11.4% | RH | 30.9% | 12.5% | 12.8% | L7Days | 21.6% | 9.0% | 3.0% |
| Giants | Road | 32.2% | 11.5% | 13.0% | LH | 27.2% | 9.4% | 4.9% | L7Days | 27.9% | 7.8% | 5.3% |
| Pirates | Road | 31.0% | 12.1% | 10.0% | LH | 35.0% | 13.2% | 17.4% | L7Days | 30.7% | 10.2% | 7.8% |
| Rockies | Road | 30.7% | 14.7% | 11.1% | LH | 33.8% | 15.1% | 13.1% | L7Days | 32.7% | 14.8% | 13.3% |
| Mariners | Home | 31.6% | 16.9% | 14.0% | RH | 32.0% | 15.4% | 15.1% | L7Days | 32.1% | 15.2% | 18.5% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.19 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 16.3% | 5.5% | 2.96 | 12.6% | 4.2% | 3.00 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 17.2% | 8.3% | 2.07 | 18.7% | 9.9% | 1.89 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 22.7% | 4.9% | 4.63 | 22.7% | 4.9% | 4.63 |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 15.7% | 9.8% | 1.60 | 17.7% | 12.9% | 1.37 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 19.9% | 9.7% | 2.05 | 15.1% | 7.7% | 1.96 |
| Drew Pomeranz | SDG | 28.4% | 11.7% | 2.43 | 27.1% | 11.5% | 2.36 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 20.1% | 9.9% | 2.03 | 19.8% | 9.1% | 2.18 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 15.7% | 8.6% | 1.83 | 16.5% | 7.9% | 2.09 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 27.1% | 10.9% | 2.49 | 29.5% | 11.6% | 2.54 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 25.5% | 12.3% | 2.07 | 25.5% | 12.3% | 2.07 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 18.8% | 9.6% | 1.96 | 11.0% | 8.2% | 1.34 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 20.7% | 11.1% | 1.86 | 24.4% | 12.8% | 1.91 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 16.7% | 8.9% | 1.88 | 16.7% | 9.3% | 1.80 |
| Rich Hill | OAK | 28.0% | 10.7% | 2.62 | |||
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | 23.7% | 10.2% | 2.32 | 21.2% | 8.7% | 2.44 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 12.2% | 6.7% | 1.82 | 11.7% | 7.6% | 1.54 |
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.05 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.00 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 2.86 | 4.33 | 1.47 | 4.03 | 1.17 | 3.69 | 0.83 | 1.67 | 4.26 | 2.59 | 3.78 | 2.11 | 3.87 | 2.2 |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 5.84 | 4.14 | -1.7 | 3.95 | -1.89 | 4.27 | -1.57 | 6.84 | 3.38 | -3.46 | 3.1 | -3.74 | 3.73 | -3.11 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 5.4 | 5.71 | 0.31 | 5.9 | 0.5 | 6.17 | 0.77 | 5.4 | 5.71 | 0.31 | 5.9 | 0.5 | 6.17 | 0.77 |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 5.9 | 5.31 | -0.59 | 5.46 | -0.44 | 5.85 | -0.05 | 4.82 | 5.41 | 0.59 | 5.29 | 0.47 | 5.68 | 0.86 |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 4.38 | 4.81 | 0.43 | 4.96 | 0.58 | 4.67 | 0.29 | 6.43 | 5.74 | -0.69 | 5.88 | -0.55 | 5.24 | -1.19 |
| Drew Pomeranz | SDG | 2.76 | 3.8 | 1.04 | 3.67 | 0.91 | 3.36 | 0.6 | 3.3 | 3.64 | 0.34 | 3.63 | 0.33 | 3.7 | 0.4 |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 5.27 | 4.71 | -0.56 | 5.05 | -0.22 | 5.45 | 0.18 | 6.08 | 5.09 | -0.99 | 5.55 | -0.53 | 4.94 | -1.14 |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 5.32 | 4.06 | -1.26 | 4.16 | -1.16 | 5.08 | -0.24 | 7.52 | 4.71 | -2.81 | 4.91 | -2.61 | 6.28 | -1.24 |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 2.1 | 3.59 | 1.49 | 3.31 | 1.21 | 2.77 | 0.67 | 3.54 | 3.84 | 0.3 | 3.56 | 0.02 | 2.77 | -0.77 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 4.15 | 3.52 | -0.63 | 3.29 | -0.86 | 2.88 | -1.27 | 4.15 | 3.52 | -0.63 | 3.29 | -0.86 | 2.88 | -1.27 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 3.91 | 4.2 | 0.29 | 4.06 | 0.15 | 4.09 | 0.18 | 6.83 | 5.23 | -1.6 | 5.23 | -1.6 | 7.11 | 0.28 |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 3.3 | 4.13 | 0.83 | 3.9 | 0.6 | 3.58 | 0.28 | 5.22 | 3.67 | -1.55 | 3.34 | -1.88 | 3.74 | -1.48 |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 4.99 | 4.52 | -0.47 | 4.3 | -0.69 | 4.89 | -0.1 | 5.04 | 4.68 | -0.36 | 4.42 | -0.62 | 4.81 | -0.23 |
| Rich Hill | OAK | 2.25 | 3.58 | 1.33 | 3.71 | 1.46 | 2.71 | 0.46 | |||||||
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | 4.67 | 4.15 | -0.52 | 4.24 | -0.43 | 4.59 | -0.08 | 5.4 | 4.67 | -0.73 | 4.34 | -1.06 | 3.85 | -1.55 |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 4.5 | 5 | 0.5 | 4.95 | 0.45 | 4.63 | 0.13 | 5.65 | 5.24 | -0.41 | 5.33 | -0.32 | 4.42 | -1.23 |
Chad Bettis has a .350 BABIP mostly because Coors elevates BABIP. It’s .400 at home and .311 on the road. As well, his road strand rate is 69.9%, while he has a 59.4 LOB% at home. As mentioned before though, the HR rate is nearly double on the road (18.8 HR/FB vs 10.7 HR/FB).
Drew Pomeranz has a .248 BABIP that might be a bit too low considering his defense, despite a strong BABIP profile. His 79.7 LOB% is well above his 72.7% career average, but can’t be complained about too much with all the strikeouts. This is still a pitcher that has made amazing advances everywhere except his walk rate.
Jake Arrieta has a .242 BABIP in line with his team’s defense and while his standard batted ball profile isn’t exceptional, the addition of the weak ground ball dominance makes it look better. While still believing it’ll move a bit, he was at a similar mark (.246) last year and just .274 the year before. I have little issue with his 80.1 LOB% with his profile and a 6.2 HR/FB is very low, but matches his last two seasons. Perhaps he’s the ultimate outlier and we still have to consider some regression (his last two starts have been horrible and we were right to believe he would regress from a sub-two ERA), but I’m not expecting him to pitch to his estimators, which themselves differ, the rest of the way if he continues to do the things he’s been doing the last couple of years.
James Paxton is beginning to develop a really strange profile. He hasn’t induced a single popup through six starts. Colby Lewis has the lowest Soft% among qualified starters (12.5%). Paxton has a rate just 40% of that. I want to say that it’s completely unsustainable and has to at least triple. It makes it even more shocking that he has strong Z-Contact%, meaning batters should have trouble squaring up his pitches in the strike zone. None of it really makes sense yet. I’d expect the BABIP and 65.1 LOB% to improve.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 21.0 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 0.305 | 0.291 | -0.014 | 0.266 | 10.2% | 93.1% |
| Chad Bettis | COL | 0.320 | 0.350 | 0.03 | 0.23 | 3.9% | 86.3% |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 0.298 | 0.250 | -0.048 | 0.154 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Clay Buchholz | BOS | 0.296 | 0.270 | -0.026 | 0.172 | 15.2% | 86.1% |
| Dan Straily | CIN | 0.292 | 0.249 | -0.043 | 0.238 | 7.9% | 85.4% |
| Drew Pomeranz | SDG | 0.305 | 0.248 | -0.057 | 0.157 | 11.4% | 82.9% |
| Hector Santiago | ANA | 0.302 | 0.261 | -0.041 | 0.147 | 14.3% | 82.6% |
| Ivan Nova | NYY | 0.302 | 0.308 | 0.006 | 0.174 | 12.7% | 93.0% |
| Jake Arrieta | CHC | 0.253 | 0.242 | -0.011 | 0.19 | 4.6% | 85.7% |
| James Paxton | SEA | 0.293 | 0.415 | 0.122 | 0.224 | 0.0% | 84.5% |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.290 | 0.281 | -0.009 | 0.203 | 7.5% | 86.7% |
| Joe Ross | WAS | 0.290 | 0.295 | 0.005 | 0.263 | 8.8% | 86.0% |
| Patrick Corbin | ARI | 0.309 | 0.307 | -0.002 | 0.199 | 4.8% | 93.0% |
| Rich Hill | OAK | 0.311 | 0.293 | -0.018 | 0.177 | 16.7% | 77.5% |
| Scott Kazmir | LOS | 0.274 | 0.283 | 0.009 | 0.216 | 13.2% | 83.1% |
| Tyler Wilson | BAL | 0.305 | 0.275 | -0.03 | 0.212 | 10.8% | 92.7% |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
We’re back to the enormous price gaps with around half of tonight’s pitchers $1.5K or more apart between the two sites. The other issue is with Arrieta really struggling over his last two starts, we’re left lacking a real top tier starter. We’re essentially starting at the third tier today and spreading a group that would be closer together on a more normal day further apart. We do seem to have enough usable arms to get through tonight though.
Value Tier One
Jake Arrieta (1) has been terrible in his last two starts, walking as many as he’s struck out and not even generating ground balls. He also comes at an enormous price, but we don’t have many standout choices. He’d probably be a third tier guy on a standard full slate, but he does have a strong matchup in a great park.
Value Tier Two
Joe Ross (3) might even be my top choice on DraftKings for nearly $5K less than Arrieta, but I don’t feel like entirely skipping Tier Two twice in a week, but these are clearly my top two values tonight. It may even have benefited us that Ross hasn’t been in such great spots against more left-handed lineups recently because it drops his cost below $9K tonight in what appears to be a very strong spot, though we still have to beware of two good LHBs up top.
Value Tier Three
Chad Bettis hasn’t been very good on the road, but if you look at his game log, he’s only really been in one or two truly favorable spots. This would be one of those rare spots. He’s cheap with enough strikeouts and has a ground ball rate above 50%. That gives him a shot on a night absent of low priced upside.
Drew Pomeranz (2) is in a great spot. The concern is that he’s been allowing some runs lately and a high walk rate is often keeping him from getting deep into games at a high price. It’s a risk paying $10K for a five inning pitcher.
James Paxton is in a tough, but not tough spot and has both dominated and gotten hammered. Are you as confuses as I am yet? That’s why he’s down here for a cost just below $7.5K. Baltimore could tattoo him, he could strike out 10 or both.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Scott Kazmir might blow up your entire team on one pitcher sites and costs $2K more on FanDuel. Where you have to choose two pitchers for just $6.4K on DraftKings and one of them is Arrieta or even Pomeranz, there is upside at that cost. Just don’t be surprised at whatever you get though.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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