Advanced Stats - Pitching: Saturday, May 7th
Well, at least we have Chris Sale tonight. Kershaw pitches today, but it’s his third straight day start off the main slate. After that it gets ugly with nearly every pitcher fitting neatly into a $6.5K to $8.5K range and six of 16 offenses having at least a 123 wRC+ over the last week.
One other thing before we get started. The double header in Baltimore today has the pitchers listed below for the 2nd game on MLB.com, but the DFS sites might have Mike Wright. It probably matters more for your offensive purposes than ours though, because we’re not interested either way.
Changes for 2016 were outlined on Opening Day, which you can find here.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three-year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | -9.8 | 3.86 | 6.36 | 1.1 | 0.86 | 3.9 | 3.45 | SDG | 72 | 71 | 69 |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | -3.5 | 4.02 | 5.5 | 1.56 | 1.02 | 3.54 | 5.06 | MIL | 66 | 89 | 129 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 11.7 | 2.61 | 6.75 | 1.1 | 0.99 | 2.99 | 4.45 | MIN | 86 | 85 | 91 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0 | 3.08 | 6.97 | 3.18 | 1.01 | 2.4 | 5.09 | SEA | 122 | 102 | 136 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | -4.5 | 4.06 | 6.17 | 1.2 | 0.99 | 4.32 | CHW | 98 | 96 | 123 | |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | -0.4 | 3.73 | 5.83 | 0.75 | 0.92 | 4.08 | 4.78 | ANA | 96 | 92 | 133 |
| James Shields | SDG | 1.8 | 3.77 | 6.39 | 1.34 | 0.86 | 3.64 | 5.29 | NYM | 114 | 104 | 83 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 8.5 | 4.62 | 6.14 | 0.68 | 0.92 | 4.33 | 5.33 | TAM | 122 | 89 | 140 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | -3.9 | 4.05 | 5.24 | 1.05 | 1 | 4.22 | 4.35 | FLA | 89 | 101 | 135 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | -14.4 | 3.88 | 5.97 | 2.17 | 1.04 | 3.79 | 3.02 | BAL | 116 | 116 | 90 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -10.6 | 4.04 | 5.9 | 1.66 | 1.02 | 4.77 | 4.17 | CIN | 86 | 75 | 84 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | -5.4 | 3.94 | 6.28 | 0.92 | 0.96 | 3.86 | 2.96 | ARI | 89 | 90 | 67 |
| Nate Karns | SEA | -5.2 | 3.88 | 5.58 | 1.15 | 1.01 | 3.75 | 3.81 | HOU | 123 | 106 | 116 |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | -9.2 | 4.43 | 5.89 | 1.14 | 0.96 | 4.68 | 5.69 | ATL | 60 | 65 | 43 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 4.5 | 4.47 | 5.81 | 1.16 | 1 | 4.36 | 6.91 | PHI | 79 | 73 | 56 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | -4.8 | 4.18 | 5.6 | 1.54 | 1.04 | 3.45 | 5.12 | OAK | 102 | 89 | 62 |
Bartolo Colon faces the lowly Padres. We’ve been beating this drum for two straight nights as San Diego has made young Mets stud pitching looking ordinary, so what’s this old guy gonna do? We’ve got to keep using what we know and he has been shutting down poor offenses so far, most recently shutting out Atlanta for eight innings (7 Ks – 0 BBs). The Padres are still one of the worst offenses in the league against RHP, striking out a quarter of the time.
Brandon Finnegan is a talented arm who has struggled to throw strikes and hasn’t struck out more than five since his first start. We’re setting a low bar tonight. He has at least completed six innings in each of his last two starts and you could say he’s faced a pretty difficult and patient group of offenses (SFG, NYM, CHC 2x, STL) and maybe deserves the benefit of the doubt against a lesser Milwaukee club. (Spoiler: No, he probably doesn’t, but it’s what we’re dealing with now.) The Brewers have a lot of RH power (13.2 HR/FB, 21.6 Hard-Soft% vs LHP) and have walked 14.6% against southpaws. I’m sorry, how do they only have a 89 wRC+ against southpaws? They have a 18.0 HR/FB over the last week.
Chris Sale puts tonight’s group on his back and single handedly saves them. He’s gone at least seven innings in five of six starts, allowing a total of two ERs over his last four, and continues to dominate with…….the lowest SwStr% and K% of his career? He’s…..he’s human. His velocity is down a mile and a half and his SwStr has been below 8% in three of his six starts. What do we do now? I don’t believe we have much of a choice. At least his contact and batted ball profile remains intact and Minnesota is a favorable matchup. They haven’t hit LHP well (24.3 K%, 6.1 HR/FB) despite leaning right handed through the middle of the order.
Dallas Keuchel still has a 55.5 GB%, has only allowed one HR, and saw a small uptick in velocity in his last start. He’s getting hit much harder, his walk rate has doubled, and he’s allowed 16 runs in his last 16.1 innings. He had been throwing more sliders and cutters, but threw the highest rate of sinkers (57.7%) this season in his last start and it did not go well. He got eight ground balls, which ties a season low, and walked five. He’s struck out more than five in just one start. The Mariners have a 16.1 HR/FB on the road and 16.9 HR/FB vs LHPs and represent one of the worst matchups tonight.
Jake Odorizzi has further reduced his BB%, while maintaining a slightly above average K%. The issue is that a lot of his value comes from a low HR/FB rate at home, while normalizing on the road, but that would seem more of a problem in the AL East parks where many of his road performances take place than it is in a park in Anaheim, of similar comfort to his home park. Two of his three HRs have come in Baltimore and Boston, while tonight’s park has even more friendly HR factors than the Trop. The one issue here is that, while sustaining his soft contact rate just below 20%, he’s borrowed from medium contact with the harder stuff jumping to 37.3%. Additionally, the Angels have a 14.7 HR/FB at home and are striking out at rates comparable to last year’s Royals.
Jeremy Hellickson got pounded in St Louis and has now allowed seven HRs and completed six innings just once. He’s walked seven of his last 52 batters too. The contact is hard and in the air, but at least the strikeouts, right? Yes, that’s good, but the Marlins haven’t been striking out much and have a 35.8 Hard% with an 18.6 HR/FB over the last week, which is surprising since their top power hitter was suspended last week.
Julio Teheran dominated the Cubs in his last start…..in Chicago (7 IP – 2 H – 0 R – 1 BB – 9 K) and has looked quite good in each of his last two. He’s still allowing a lot of hard contact in the air, even harder in fact (23.6 Hard-Soft%), but has slightly improved his K and BB numbers and returned to his career 14.0 K-BB%. He’s remained at least average at home where the park is much more forgiving to hard contact in the air. Arizona has some power, but is one of the more favorable matchups tonight in what we’d consider a pitcher’s park tonight.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.297 BABIP – 72.5 LOB% – 11.8 HR/FB)
James Shields (.274 BABIP – 81.5 LOB% – 10.5 HR/FB) has at least normalized his HR rate, but there’s no reason why his BABIP should be this low, although the Padres have upgraded their defense. He has the lowest SwStr% of his career though, which is about league average, so maybe there’s a few more strikeouts coming, but his 9.4 BB% matches last year and that’s not very good. The Mets appear to be slumping and this is something you wouldn’t know without having watched the games, but they are still hitting the ball very hard (31.6 Hard%, 15.5 HR/FB over the last week) with several deep fly balls caught near the warning track in this series.
Jimmy Nelson (.206 BABIP – 82.4 LOB% – 20.6 HR/FB) has seen a huge drop off in his SwStr% in addition to all of this other stuff. He’s already allowed seven HRs. He’s in a decent enough spot, but his ERA is pure illusion and now you have to pay quite a bit for him.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Ervin Santana might have been a candidate tonight, but hasn’t pitched since April 19th due to back issues. Back issues can be tricky and even if all goes well, can we expect more than five innings against a hot offense after the more than two week layoff?
Ubaldo Jimenez has walked exactly four in three of his last four starts with three in the other one, in which he’s only even reached six innings once.
Nate Karns has the potential to strike out around a quarter of the batters he faces tonight, but takes his 14.6 road HR/FB since last year and 14.5 HR/FB over the last two calendar years overall against Houston’s 16.3 HR/FB vs RHP and 14.1 HR/FB at home. This would be fine and worth a shot at Hellickson’s or Finnegan’s price, but for some ridiculous reason, he costs more than $8K and nearly $9K on DraftKings.
Jesse Hahn had a 5.2 K-BB% in four AAA starts this season and Baltimore punishes mediocre RHP (14.7 HR/FB) at home (14.0 HR/FB).
Shelby Miller gets the Atlanta matchup because of course he does tonight. Nothing comes easy in DFS. Miller has allowed less than four runs in three starts and hasn’t gotten out of the fourth inning in any of those. He’s been awful in every single start.
Tom Koehler gets the Philadelphia matchup because of course he does tonight. He’s been just as bad as Miller and has struck out three or less in three of five starts, though he at least has one decent one on his 2016 ledger.
Jered Weaver has just thrown his first pitch of the game. Estimated arrival time: 10pm EST.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | L2 Years | 17.6% | 3.3% | Road | 15.6% | 2.9% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 1.9% |
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | L2 Years | 21.9% | 10.7% | Home | 23.7% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 16.4% | 10.9% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | L2 Years | 30.8% | 5.2% | Home | 28.2% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 11.3% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 20.8% | 6.1% | Home | 26.6% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 14.6% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 19.8% | 8.1% | Road | 19.0% | 7.5% | L14 Days | ||
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 23.0% | 6.9% | Road | 18.9% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 15.9% | 6.8% |
| James Shields | Padres | L2 Years | 21.4% | 7.4% | Home | 25.9% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 13.0% | 11.1% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | L2 Years | 15.8% | 6.3% | Home | 18.7% | 4.6% | L14 Days | 13.2% | 7.6% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 19.8% | 7.0% | Road | 20.4% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 13.5% |
| Jesse Hahn | Athletics | L2 Years | 18.8% | 8.0% | Road | 16.1% | 6.0% | L14 Days | 17.4% | 8.7% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.3% | 8.3% | Road | 15.8% | 12.2% | L14 Days | 23.5% | 13.7% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 21.2% | 7.5% | Home | 22.3% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 30.9% | 7.3% |
| Nate Karns | Mariners | L2 Years | 23.7% | 9.3% | Road | 25.1% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 8.2% |
| Shelby Miller | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 18.2% | 9.1% | Road | 16.5% | 10.0% | L14 Days | 20.9% | 18.6% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | L2 Years | 18.0% | 9.3% | Home | 18.6% | 9.4% | L14 Days | 7.9% | 15.8% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 21.5% | 10.8% | Home | 22.7% | 7.6% | L14 Days | 17.3% | 13.5% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | Home | 22.6% | 7.3% | RH | 25.6% | 6.7% | L7Days | 27.8% | 6.0% |
| Brewers | Road | 24.1% | 10.9% | LH | 23.1% | 14.6% | L7Days | 18.0% | 8.6% |
| Twins | Road | 27.9% | 8.6% | LH | 24.3% | 11.0% | L7Days | 20.7% | 7.2% |
| Mariners | Road | 19.7% | 7.7% | LH | 20.3% | 7.9% | L7Days | 19.2% | 8.0% |
| White Sox | Home | 18.3% | 12.3% | RH | 18.9% | 8.8% | L7Days | 19.9% | 13.6% |
| Angels | Home | 15.9% | 8.8% | RH | 16.1% | 7.8% | L7Days | 14.7% | 8.8% |
| Mets | Road | 22.4% | 8.3% | RH | 21.6% | 9.2% | L7Days | 19.2% | 10.2% |
| Rays | Road | 25.6% | 8.4% | RH | 27.1% | 7.8% | L7Days | 24.3% | 7.6% |
| Marlins | Home | 18.7% | 8.0% | RH | 18.5% | 7.9% | L7Days | 15.7% | 9.3% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.3% | 8.9% | RH | 21.8% | 8.4% | L7Days | 22.0% | 9.1% |
| Reds | Home | 21.2% | 6.9% | RH | 22.5% | 6.3% | L7Days | 24.3% | 7.1% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 19.2% | 7.4% | RH | 20.0% | 6.7% | L7Days | 19.6% | 7.6% |
| Astros | Home | 24.4% | 12.1% | RH | 26.1% | 10.3% | L7Days | 19.8% | 14.4% |
| Braves | Home | 24.8% | 7.7% | RH | 21.0% | 8.7% | L7Days | 22.7% | 4.5% |
| Phillies | Road | 22.0% | 6.3% | RH | 21.9% | 6.7% | L7Days | 20.1% | 5.6% |
| Athletics | Road | 20.4% | 6.0% | RH | 19.1% | 7.3% | L7Days | 17.1% | 5.1% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | Mets | L2 Years | 29.4% | 9.3% | 14.1% | 2016 | 32.3% | 10.3% | 22.9% | Road | 26.6% | 10.2% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 35.0% | 6.7% | 25.0% |
| Brandon Finnegan | Reds | L2 Years | 31.3% | 16.9% | 10.0% | 2016 | 34.3% | 13.9% | 14.7% | Home | 28.1% | 21.1% | 3.4% | L14 Days | 39.5% | 7.1% | 15.8% |
| Chris Sale | White Sox | L2 Years | 26.0% | 10.1% | 5.6% | 2016 | 26.3% | 6.8% | 4.4% | Home | 24.9% | 15.1% | 3.1% | L14 Days | 17.1% | 6.3% | -8.6% |
| Dallas Keuchel | Astros | L2 Years | 21.5% | 10.9% | -1.9% | 2016 | 31.9% | 4.3% | 11.5% | Home | 18.8% | 6.9% | -10.6% | L14 Days | 36.4% | 0.0% | 21.2% |
| Ervin Santana | Twins | L2 Years | 28.3% | 9.0% | 10.2% | 2016 | 24.2% | 4.8% | -1.6% | Road | 25.3% | 7.1% | 6.7% | L14 Days | |||
| Jake Odorizzi | Rays | L2 Years | 29.3% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 2016 | 37.3% | 6.5% | 17.7% | Road | 28.4% | 11.3% | 9.5% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 6.3% | 20.6% |
| James Shields | Padres | L2 Years | 28.6% | 13.3% | 11.2% | 2016 | 28.2% | 10.5% | 11.1% | Home | 30.2% | 18.0% | 13.0% | L14 Days | 22.5% | 0.0% | 7.5% |
| Jered Weaver | Angels | L2 Years | 28.6% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 2016 | 37.6% | 8.3% | 25.7% | Home | 28.7% | 7.7% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 50.0% | 5.9% | 47.6% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | Phillies | L2 Years | 33.9% | 12.9% | 17.6% | 2016 | 32.6% | 18.9% | 14.1% | Road | 34.3% | 13.7% | 17.3% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 21.4% | 6.2% |
| Jesse Hahn | Athletics | L2 Years | 26.1% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 2016 | 17.7% | 0.0% | -5.8% | Road | 27.0% | 3.6% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 17.7% | 0.0% | -5.8% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 29.7% | 12.0% | 9.3% | 2016 | 28.4% | 20.6% | 1.8% | Road | 28.1% | 8.3% | 10.2% | L14 Days | 28.1% | 14.3% | -3.2% |
| Julio Teheran | Braves | L2 Years | 31.0% | 10.3% | 14.1% | 2016 | 38.7% | 10.9% | 23.6% | Home | 35.2% | 9.4% | 17.5% | L14 Days | 24.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% |
| Nate Karns | Mariners | L2 Years | 34.1% | 14.5% | 14.6% | 2016 | 35.1% | 20.8% | 19.5% | Road | 34.8% | 14.6% | 14.1% | L14 Days | 35.3% | 22.2% | 23.5% |
| Shelby Miller | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 29.9% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 2016 | 35.1% | 18.8% | 19.5% | Road | 27.1% | 7.3% | 3.2% | L14 Days | 26.9% | 10.0% | 15.4% |
| Tom Koehler | Marlins | L2 Years | 33.4% | 9.2% | 17.2% | 2016 | 25.3% | 10.0% | 3.8% | Home | 33.5% | 7.9% | 16.6% | L14 Days | 37.9% | 18.2% | 24.1% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | L2 Years | 27.2% | 12.5% | 8.9% | 2016 | 35.0% | 20.0% | 20.0% | Home | 28.8% | 12.9% | 10.4% | L14 Days | 38.2% | 18.2% | 23.5% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | Home | 27.3% | 8.8% | 13.1% | RH | 29.5% | 9.6% | 13.4% | L7Days | 33.1% | 8.9% | 18.5% |
| Brewers | Road | 24.6% | 10.3% | 6.2% | LH | 34.9% | 13.1% | 21.6% | L7Days | 34.7% | 18.0% | 21.7% |
| Twins | Road | 29.1% | 10.7% | 12.7% | LH | 27.7% | 6.1% | 10.7% | L7Days | 30.4% | 10.7% | 16.5% |
| Mariners | Road | 31.2% | 16.1% | 13.5% | LH | 27.3% | 16.9% | 9.1% | L7Days | 28.4% | 11.9% | 8.1% |
| White Sox | Home | 28.3% | 11.1% | 5.6% | RH | 27.9% | 10.8% | 7.9% | L7Days | 30.5% | 14.0% | 10.4% |
| Angels | Home | 27.3% | 14.7% | 5.3% | RH | 26.4% | 10.4% | 2.7% | L7Days | 27.6% | 8.2% | 3.3% |
| Mets | Road | 36.3% | 16.9% | 23.8% | RH | 35.1% | 14.7% | 18.6% | L7Days | 31.6% | 15.5% | 15.5% |
| Rays | Road | 35.0% | 15.2% | 18.2% | RH | 33.4% | 13.9% | 12.5% | L7Days | 34.7% | 20.4% | 17.3% |
| Marlins | Home | 26.1% | 11.4% | 0.5% | RH | 25.6% | 11.2% | 2.1% | L7Days | 35.8% | 18.6% | 16.5% |
| Orioles | Home | 31.2% | 14.0% | 9.0% | RH | 30.8% | 14.7% | 9.1% | L7Days | 24.4% | 10.3% | -0.8% |
| Reds | Home | 31.5% | 17.0% | 17.1% | RH | 33.5% | 12.3% | 17.4% | L7Days | 34.7% | 18.3% | 20.8% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 29.8% | 12.1% | 7.1% | RH | 30.5% | 13.6% | 9.6% | L7Days | 31.1% | 10.2% | 10.6% |
| Astros | Home | 35.8% | 14.1% | 19.4% | RH | 34.6% | 16.3% | 16.9% | L7Days | 34.5% | 15.7% | 16.0% |
| Braves | Home | 29.9% | 3.3% | 11.6% | RH | 24.9% | 2.7% | 5.2% | L7Days | 27.6% | 2.6% | 11.8% |
| Phillies | Road | 28.9% | 12.0% | 7.7% | RH | 24.9% | 9.5% | 3.3% | L7Days | 20.7% | 8.6% | -4.6% |
| Athletics | Road | 32.3% | 13.9% | 14.6% | RH | 31.0% | 11.2% | 12.8% | L7Days | 24.3% | 10.0% | 9.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2015 LG AVG – 20.6 K% – 9.4 SwStr% – 2.19 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 22.1% | 8.1% | 2.73 | 22.1% | 8.4% | 2.63 |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 18.1% | 9.9% | 1.83 | 18.1% | 9.9% | 1.83 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 23.5% | 10.2% | 2.30 | 22.4% | 9.2% | 2.43 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 18.6% | 10.4% | 1.79 | 18.5% | 11.3% | 1.64 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 20.5% | 8.3% | 2.47 | 19.2% | 7.4% | 2.59 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 21.6% | 8.9% | 2.43 | 17.4% | 7.9% | 2.20 |
| James Shields | SDG | 16.4% | 9.4% | 1.74 | 14.8% | 9.5% | 1.56 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 11.1% | 7.5% | 1.48 | 11.1% | 7.5% | 1.48 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 24.3% | 11.0% | 2.21 | 23.5% | 10.7% | 2.20 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 17.4% | 8.6% | 2.02 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 2.02 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 19.8% | 6.6% | 3.00 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 3.10 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 22.2% | 8.8% | 2.52 | 23.4% | 8.4% | 2.79 |
| Nate Karns | SEA | 24.4% | 9.5% | 2.57 | 24.4% | 9.5% | 2.57 |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | 16.5% | 6.4% | 2.58 | 19.1% | 7.7% | 2.48 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 13.8% | 6.4% | 2.16 | 13.8% | 6.4% | 2.16 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 23.0% | 8.3% | 2.77 | 23.0% | 8.3% | 2.77 |
Bartolo Colon had his first start with a SwStr between 6% and 11% last time out (8.1%). I’m not optimistic about him retaining his highest SwStr% since 2004, but do believe he’s proven an ability to be a K/SwStr outlier above the accepted margin.
Dallas Keuchel – If there’s any good news to be found in his numbers it’s that his SwStr% matches last year. If he can stop walking batters, perhaps he can get to strike three more often. The issue isn’t his Zone%, which hasn’t dropped, it’s that batters are swinging less often at pitches out of the strike zone and he’ll have to make some sort of adjustment to get those strikes back.
Julio Teheran has seen a two point reduction in his SwStr% with a two point increase in his K%. His career rates in those marks are more line with last year and that’s not good news, but he has had at least a 9.6 SwStr% in each of his last two starts.
ERA Estimators Chart (2015 LG AVG – 4.10 ERA – 4.05 SIERA – 4.00 xFIP – 4.00 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 2.56 | 3.27 | 0.71 | 3.01 | 0.45 | 2.83 | 0.27 | 2.67 | 3.31 | 0.64 | 3.02 | 0.35 | 2.88 | 0.21 |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 3.97 | 4.94 | 0.97 | 4.89 | 0.92 | 5.17 | 1.2 | 3.97 | 4.94 | 0.97 | 4.89 | 0.92 | 5.17 | 1.2 |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 1.66 | 3.5 | 1.84 | 3.59 | 1.93 | 2.92 | 1.26 | 1.24 | 3.69 | 2.45 | 3.87 | 2.63 | 3.24 | 2 |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 5.11 | 4.32 | -0.79 | 3.88 | -1.23 | 3.27 | -1.84 | 5.7 | 4.11 | -1.59 | 3.69 | -2.01 | 3.25 | -2.45 |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 3.15 | 4.23 | 1.08 | 4.1 | 0.95 | 3.13 | -0.02 | 3.5 | 4.15 | 0.65 | 4.04 | 0.54 | 3.13 | -0.37 |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 3.12 | 3.78 | 0.66 | 4.01 | 0.89 | 3.08 | -0.04 | 3.41 | 4.23 | 0.82 | 4.3 | 0.89 | 3.56 | 0.15 |
| James Shields | SDG | 3.23 | 4.72 | 1.49 | 4.48 | 1.25 | 4.31 | 1.08 | 3 | 5.01 | 2.01 | 4.68 | 1.68 | 4.81 | 1.81 |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 5.4 | 5.71 | 0.31 | 5.87 | 0.47 | 5.09 | -0.31 | 5.4 | 5.71 | 0.31 | 5.87 | 0.47 | 5.09 | -0.31 |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 4.88 | 3.66 | -1.22 | 3.85 | -1.03 | 4.93 | 0.05 | 6.04 | 3.93 | -2.11 | 4.26 | -1.78 | 5.84 | -0.2 |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 0 | 2.99 | 2.99 | 3.24 | 3.24 | 2.78 | 2.78 | 0 | 3.02 | 3.02 | 3.24 | 3.24 | 2.78 | 2.78 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 3.05 | 4.38 | 1.33 | 4.16 | 1.11 | 5.17 | 2.12 | 3.19 | 4.33 | 1.14 | 4.07 | 0.88 | 5.34 | 2.15 |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 3.72 | 3.95 | 0.23 | 4.24 | 0.52 | 4.07 | 0.35 | 3.86 | 3.73 | -0.13 | 4.08 | 0.22 | 3.38 | -0.48 |
| Nate Karns | SEA | 3.81 | 4.03 | 0.22 | 3.72 | -0.09 | 4.7 | 0.89 | 3.81 | 4.03 | 0.22 | 3.72 | -0.09 | 4.7 | 0.89 |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | 8.49 | 5.89 | -2.6 | 6.01 | -2.48 | 7.24 | -1.25 | 8.31 | 6.22 | -2.09 | 6.28 | -2.03 | 6.48 | -1.83 |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 7.25 | 5.51 | -1.74 | 5.83 | -1.42 | 5.5 | -1.75 | 7.25 | 5.51 | -1.74 | 5.83 | -1.42 | 5.5 | -1.75 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 5.2 | 4.11 | -1.09 | 3.94 | -1.26 | 4.71 | -0.49 | 5.2 | 4.12 | -1.08 | 3.94 | -1.26 | 4.71 | -0.49 |
Brandon Finnegan is sitting on a .216 BABIP and there is absolutely nothing in his profile that convinces me that he deserves it. In fact, it feels like a misprint. He’s only managed to strand 69.2% of his runners with it because he’s walking so many batters and allowing so many HRs.
Chris Sale had the highest BABIP of his career last season (.323) and the only difference is a few less LDs this year, although you could blame a lot of his woes on his defense, which now seems improved. His profile and indicators look great and he might be able to beat his career .290 BABIP, but I couldn’t project him for much better than the .274 his team is allowing. His 84.9 LOB% is too high, but his 78.5% career mark is actually one of the highest all time for a starting pitcher with more than 500 innings. That’s all with a higher K% of course though. His 6.8 HR/FB is well below his career rate. He’s only been in single digits one other time. We’re looking at the overall profile of a slightly above average pitcher here, not the most dominant lefty in the AL this year. There’s still time to change.
Dallas Keuchel had a .348 BABIP and 65.4 LOB%, but has allowed a high rate of LDs and more frequent hard contact with the Houston defense allowing a .314 BABIP. While there should be regression all around eventually, there can’t be much argument with the current numbers. He’s done all this while allowing just one HR as well. The one bit of good news remains in the SwStr%, which should eventually increase his K%, which would also decrease his ERA estimators. It’s still not good, but if we can get a 20-23 K% with a 55 GB%, he can still be useful.
Jake Odorizzi – This is pretty much always the low HR rate at home and we’re fine with it as his career ERA matches his FIP. His BABIP runs a little high compared to his defense, but should regress, though the contact has been harder than expected so far. That has less to do with batting average for extreme fly ball pitchers though. It hasn’t affected his LOB% (76.1) a bit either.
Jeremy Hellickson has an 18.9 HR/FB and with an 11.0 career rate pitching most of his career in Tampa Bay, this could remain a problem this year, though we can probably expect a few points lopped off.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .297 BABIP – 21.0 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bartolo Colon | NYM | 0.326 | 0.323 | -0.003 | 0.264 | 10.3% | 88.2% |
| Brandon Finnegan | CIN | 0.280 | 0.216 | -0.064 | 0.238 | 2.8% | 87.7% |
| Chris Sale | CHW | 0.273 | 0.207 | -0.066 | 0.162 | 13.6% | 84.7% |
| Dallas Keuchel | HOU | 0.314 | 0.348 | 0.034 | 0.236 | 8.7% | 84.0% |
| Ervin Santana | MIN | 0.312 | 0.311 | -0.001 | 0.217 | 19.0% | 89.2% |
| Jake Odorizzi | TAM | 0.272 | 0.313 | 0.041 | 0.196 | 15.2% | 88.0% |
| James Shields | SDG | 0.296 | 0.274 | -0.022 | 0.211 | 5.3% | 86.4% |
| Jered Weaver | ANA | 0.284 | 0.340 | 0.056 | 0.28 | 10.4% | 83.0% |
| Jeremy Hellickson | PHI | 0.281 | 0.294 | 0.013 | 0.205 | 10.8% | 80.3% |
| Jesse Hahn | OAK | 0.298 | 0.176 | -0.122 | 0.118 | 0.0% | 81.0% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.326 | 0.206 | -0.12 | 0.142 | 17.6% | 92.5% |
| Julio Teheran | ATL | 0.290 | 0.257 | -0.033 | 0.146 | 2.2% | 87.3% |
| Nate Karns | SEA | 0.271 | 0.278 | 0.007 | 0.303 | 4.2% | 91.7% |
| Shelby Miller | ARI | 0.312 | 0.296 | -0.016 | 0.213 | 9.4% | 85.3% |
| Tom Koehler | FLA | 0.306 | 0.355 | 0.049 | 0.208 | 20.0% | 90.0% |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | BAL | 0.296 | 0.368 | 0.072 | 0.228 | 5.0% | 84.5% |
Julio Teheran does have a career .279 BABIP, but that’s still a bit higher than this year and he usually does it in front of a quality defense in a big park with a decent number of pop ups, not an unsustainably low LD rate.
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can changed depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Bartolo Colon (2) would have been a Tier Three guy yesterday. That’s the collection we’re dealing with tonight. When you don’t have quality on the mound, you have to lean stronger on the matchups and San Diego is one of three standout matchups heavily favoring the pitcher. The other two go to Miller and Koehler, the two worst sets of pitcher numbers in today’s article.
Value Tier Two
Chris Sale (1) is sad. Well, no he’s not. He’s making millions and has said he has no use for advanced stats so I assume he’s very happy. I’m sad because he was supposed to be our slam dunk meal ticket tonight, but now we’ve gone looking for trouble and found it. What are you going to do though? He’s still far and away the best pitcher on tonight’s board even with these reduced peripherals. The problem is you can only really find value in these numbers if he’s priced the same as the other pitchers, not 50% higher. Maybe the old Chris Sale will show up tonight. His numbers were down to start last year too until he went on a massive strikeout binge.
Dallas Keuchel (3) partially sits here due to past performance that I still hope he has in him and because the Mariners lean left handed, while he’s continued to generate a 63% ground ball rate against same sided batters with a little bit of optimism in his SwStr%. Adjustments need to be made though. Batters just aren’t chasing the pitches below the strike zone anymore and it’s hurting both his walk and strikeout rates, along with his ability to generate so many weak ground balls. I’m not very confident in this selection, but might have some exposure because the cost has dropped him to the middle of the pack on DraftKIngs, though he still remains alone under Sale on FanDuel.
Julio Teheran may still be over-priced from two years ago, but might at least be league average upside in a favorable spot in a home park that enhances his skill set.
Value Tier Three
Jake Odorizzi – While I’d love to value him higher and don’t think the HR rate will be as much of an issue (against his price tag) as it usually is, the Angels aren’t striking out at all, so he’s going to have to be almost entirely run prevention tonight against another hot team, as they all seem to be tonight. Give him a higher floor than a couple of pitchers above him for sure, but probably a lower ceiling as well.
Jeremy Hellickson at least has some strikeout upside at one of the lower prices today, but the Marlins don’t exactly play to his strengths as much as they might lean towards exploiting his weaknesses at this point.
Brandon Finnegan has had great difficulty throwing strikes and is allowing a lot of elevated hard contact in one of the most power friendly parks in the majors. Why is he here? I don’t know. He’s the lowest priced pitcher on the board and maybe some strikeouts?
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either useable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
There is no Tier Four tonight. There’s really no Tier Three either. You know how hard it was to shoehorn and stomp Finnegan in there?
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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