Advanced Stats - Pitching: Thursday, September 15th
With multiple scratches and Jose Fernandez striking out just a season low three batters last night, you’re probably glad we’re past all that and onto a new day. Unfortunately, two of the top pitchers are in terrible spots (one we probably can’t even consider) with Blake Snell and Mike Montgomery the only other pitchers with a strikeout rate above 22%. There’s more work to do today.
Don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, and Kevin’s weather report as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. And all of which are now available right here on the site.
Most stats are pulled directly from the Fangraphs.com database. If a stat is used that you are not familiar with and want to learn more about, their glossary does a terrific job of explaining all of the advanced stats used here.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
We’re using Seamheads.com three year park factors. Home team is in bold. Team Def = UZR/150. L2Yrs is a rolling calendar. Hm/Rd xFIP is since the start of the 2015 season. Opp team offensive stats are wRC+.
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB/FB L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | -6.7 | 4.05 | 6.2 | 1.61 | 0.89 | 3.95 | 4.23 | SFO | 111 | 98 | 112 |
| Archie Bradley | ARI | -9.8 | 4.7 | 5.17 | 1.71 | 1.07 | 4.4 | 4.37 | LOS | 92 | 108 | 54 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | -0.4 | 4.67 | 4.81 | 1.04 | 1.04 | 4.36 | 4.68 | BAL | 109 | 81 | 92 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | -1 | 4.82 | 5.02 | 1.21 | 1.02 | 4.03 | 6.69 | PHI | 73 | 82 | 93 |
| Daniel Mengden | OAK | -8.6 | 4.68 | 5.1 | 1.12 | 1.04 | 4.72 | 4.7 | KAN | 92 | 84 | 57 |
| Daniel Wright | ANA | 5.2 | 5.3 | 4.37 | 0.97 | 0.92 | 7.12 | 5.74 | TOR | 94 | 101 | 65 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 5.9 | 4.42 | 5.92 | 1.59 | 1.04 | 4.26 | 5.08 | OAK | 95 | 90 | 112 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 4.1 | 4.41 | 5.65 | 1.03 | 1.07 | 4.35 | 4.64 | NYY | 81 | 84 | 91 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 3.7 | 3.95 | 5.81 | 1.22 | 0.92 | 3.99 | 4.7 | ANA | 101 | 103 | 49 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.4 | 4.05 | 6.06 | 1.02 | 1.02 | 3.9 | 4.21 | PIT | 87 | 95 | 106 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | -8 | 4.48 | 5.74 | 1.73 | 1.03 | 4.89 | 5.68 | CHC | 103 | 100 | 86 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 5.3 | 3.72 | 6.75 | 1.42 | 0.89 | 3.74 | 2.97 | STL | 109 | 108 | 51 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.6 | 3.53 | 6.31 | 1.51 | 1.07 | 3.35 | 3.43 | BOS | 122 | 115 | 119 |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 8.8 | 4.08 | 5.42 | 2.18 | 1.03 | 3.9 | 4.72 | MIL | 87 | 102 | 85 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 1.6 | 3.14 | 5.9 | 1.27 | 1.07 | 2.91 | 2.24 | ARI | 99 | 116 | 161 |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | -4.2 | 4.81 | 5.44 | 1.48 | 1.04 | 4.91 | 4.34 | TAM | 103 | 99 | 116 |
J.A. Happ looked like he had recaptured some of what propelled him to an extraordinary second half last season by increasing his fastball usage and actually generating more swings and misses with it. That hasn’t lasted, mostly due to a HR barrage. He’s allowed six over his last six starts, but still has a 16.4 K-BB% over that span, so there’s some hope. The issue at hand tonight is that he’s facing an offense with a 16.8 K-BB% vs LHP. That’s really the only bad news though. They may lean heavily RH, but still display below average power against southpaws (10.8 HR/FB) and are the coldest of several cold offenses on this board over the last week. He should find some success in a favorable park tonight.
Jerad Eickhoff has rebounded pretty well from a rough August, allowing only two runs in 12 innings over his last two starts, both on the road, striking out nine of 48 batters, walking only two without a HR. He has a career 15.8 K-BB% with an ERA nearly a run less at home, though that gap has closed a bit, which is not really a surprise in a difficult park. Pittsburgh struggles on the road (22.5%) without much power and even less over the last week (5.0 HR/FB).
Johnny Cueto doesn’t often find himself near the top of the board in strikeout rate, but that’s what we’re dealing with today. We’re looking for innings, run prevention and just enough strikeouts with him and you can’t always be assured of those things with him, but have a better chance at home in a great park, where he’s more likely to suppress the long ball (just three of his 15 HRs have come at home). Such is the case today, facing a very good offense, but at least an ice cold one and in San Francisco. The Cardinals have a 24.2 K% and 10.3 HR/FB over the last week.
Michael Montgomery has walked a few too many batters (14.5%) and not gone more than five innings in any of his four starts for the Cubs, but his 22.4 K% matches his season mark and puts him third best on the board. He faces an offense that has been clobbering LHP (16.0 HR/FB, 11.7 BB%), but he just pitched very well against them in his last start (6 IP – 2 H – 1 R – 1 HR – 1 BB – 6 K – 17 BF) and they still strike out a quarter of the time against southpaws.
Rich Hill was the subject of controversy in his last start when he was removed after 89 pitches with a perfect game in tact through seven innings. That’s a concern here if he’s again going to be limited to 90 pitches in a much more dangerous spot, but perhaps he continues to get extended as he’s finally able to put consecutive starts together on normal rest this month after missing most of July and almost all of August. He may not have pitched much, but has been spectacular in his three starts for the Dodgers (19 IP – 6 H – 0 R – 2 BB – 20 K – 65 BF). He is facing the top offense in baseball vs LHP in a park that greatly supports their offensive outbursts. The Diamondbacks have a 17.5 HR/FB at home, 21 HR/FB vs LHP and 34.8 HR/FB over the last week. They do strike out over 23% of the time at home, vs LHP and over the last week too though.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.298 BABIP – 72.1 LOB% – 13.3 HR/FB)
Blake Snell (.352 – 72.3% – 6.5) has tonight’s second highest strikeout rate and costs just $5.5K on DraftKIngs against one of the worst offenses in baseball against LHP, but the Orioles have a 17.5 HR/FB at home. He’s gone less than four innings with exactly three strikeouts in three of his last four starts with a 16.2 BB% over his last six starts.
Chad Kuhl (.275 – 73.4% – 10.5) has just an 8.5 K-BB% and has struck out two or fewer in four of his 10 starts. He’s thrown just two innings this month, but does have one of the top matchups on the board in Philly.
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Masahiro Tanaka is the last man out just because he’s in a very difficult spot. The Red Sox punish opposing RHPs at home. He’s been pitching very well and doesn’t miss by much. The Red Sox were shut out in Fenway last night by another very good RHP. It does happen, but it’s just too dangerous a spot for one of the highest prices on the board.
Adam Wainwright has struck out seven in two of his last three starts, but both were against the Brewers. Tonight, he’s in a great park, but against a low strikeout offense (17.5 K% vs RHP, 7.0 K-BB% at home). He’s over-priced, especially on FanDuel at just below $9K in a game where he’s a significant dog.
Eduardo Rodriguez has just an 8.6 K-BB% over the last month with a .113 BABIP and 6.7 HR/FB spanning 23.1 innings. He has done a great job limiting hard contact this season (4.1 Hard-Soft%) and has a SwStr% that shows some potential for the future, but needs to be more consistently in the strike zone.
Edinson Volquez is in a low strikeout spot, but a decent run prevention one against the A’s. He’s only this high on the list because he’s nearing the minimum price on DraftKings at which point he may have some value.
Daniel Mengden can miss bats on the rare occasion he finds the plate. A double digit walk rate leaves him with just a 10.2 K-BB%. He is facing a low power, low walk rate offense though.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 19.3% | 6.2% | Road | 19.8% | 6.3% | L14 Days | 22.6% | 9.4% |
| Archie Bradley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 19.4% | 11.4% | Home | 20.4% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 20.5% | 9.1% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 23.6% | 12.9% | Road | 21.0% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 26.3% | 13.2% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 16.0% | 7.6% | Road | 19.3% | 3.5% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 21.4% |
| Daniel Mengden | Athletics | L2 Years | 21.4% | 11.3% | Road | 20.6% | 11.8% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 10.0% |
| Daniel Wright | Angels | L2 Years | 9.1% | 3.4% | Home | 6.1% | 3.0% | L14 Days | 8.3% | 4.2% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | L2 Years | 17.8% | 8.4% | Home | 17.2% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 11.8% | 5.9% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 18.9% | 7.7% | Home | 18.6% | 7.5% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 7.4% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 21.1% | 6.6% | Road | 20.7% | 6.2% | L14 Days | 17.5% | 7.5% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 20.7% | 5.7% | Home | 23.0% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 18.8% | 4.2% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 18.4% | 9.5% | Road | 16.2% | 11.7% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 16.0% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 21.3% | 5.3% | Home | 21.0% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 21.2% | 5.8% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 21.9% | 4.3% | Road | 21.0% | 4.2% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 5.5% |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | L2 Years | 19.2% | 9.3% | Home | 20.2% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 14.3% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 30.1% | 7.4% | Road | 33.5% | 6.6% | L14 Days | 40.5% | 4.8% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Orioles | L2 Years | 15.8% | 9.4% | Home | 14.6% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 17.8% | 6.7% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | Home | 16.8% | 9.8% | RH | 17.5% | 9.4% | L7Days | 17.2% | 10.8% |
| Dodgers | Road | 21.4% | 8.6% | RH | 21.1% | 8.2% | L7Days | 27.0% | 4.7% |
| Orioles | Home | 20.5% | 8.2% | LH | 21.8% | 8.2% | L7Days | 22.9% | 9.2% |
| Phillies | Home | 24.1% | 7.1% | RH | 22.8% | 6.9% | L7Days | 30.2% | 7.5% |
| Royals | Home | 18.8% | 6.7% | RH | 20.1% | 6.6% | L7Days | 23.0% | 7.2% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 22.8% | 9.4% | RH | 22.7% | 9.6% | L7Days | 22.8% | 8.4% |
| Athletics | Road | 19.4% | 7.6% | RH | 18.8% | 7.4% | L7Days | 15.8% | 10.4% |
| Yankees | Road | 19.8% | 7.0% | LH | 18.6% | 8.1% | L7Days | 21.5% | 9.3% |
| Angels | Home | 16.3% | 7.7% | LH | 16.8% | 8.3% | L7Days | 22.0% | 6.8% |
| Pirates | Road | 22.5% | 8.6% | RH | 20.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 17.0% | 13.7% |
| Cubs | Home | 20.9% | 11.1% | RH | 21.9% | 10.3% | L7Days | 24.9% | 11.1% |
| Cardinals | Road | 22.1% | 8.6% | RH | 21.1% | 8.7% | L7Days | 24.2% | 7.4% |
| Red Sox | Home | 16.8% | 8.7% | RH | 18.3% | 8.4% | L7Days | 18.7% | 8.3% |
| Brewers | Road | 24.6% | 10.0% | LH | 24.9% | 11.7% | L7Days | 22.7% | 8.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 23.3% | 7.0% | LH | 23.5% | 9.0% | L7Days | 24.6% | 9.2% |
| Rays | Road | 23.3% | 7.5% | RH | 23.8% | 7.7% | L7Days | 24.2% | 6.3% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.2% | 8.4% | 12.1% | 2016 | 31.6% | 9.9% | 13.4% | Road | 30.7% | 15.2% | 14.7% | L14 Days | 36.1% | 20.0% | 25.0% |
| Archie Bradley | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 37.4% | 13.7% | 20.1% | 2016 | 37.1% | 14.8% | 18.6% | Home | 38.6% | 18.6% | 21.9% | L14 Days | 38.7% | 0.0% | 22.6% |
| Blake Snell | Rays | L2 Years | 31.7% | 6.5% | 10.0% | 2016 | 31.7% | 6.5% | 10.0% | Road | 32.0% | 10.0% | 16.5% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 8.3% | -8.7% |
| Chad Kuhl | Pirates | L2 Years | 32.7% | 10.5% | 15.1% | 2016 | 32.7% | 10.5% | 15.1% | Road | 27.9% | 9.7% | 5.8% | L14 Days | 62.5% | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Daniel Mengden | Athletics | L2 Years | 28.0% | 11.7% | 8.0% | 2016 | 28.0% | 11.7% | 8.0% | Road | 23.5% | 13.0% | -4.4% | L14 Days | 42.9% | 22.2% | 32.2% |
| Daniel Wright | Angels | L2 Years | 45.3% | 13.8% | 28.0% | 2016 | 45.3% | 13.8% | 28.0% | Home | 39.3% | 16.7% | 21.4% | L14 Days | 42.1% | 22.2% | 26.3% |
| Edinson Volquez | Royals | L2 Years | 30.7% | 9.6% | 13.0% | 2016 | 31.4% | 12.6% | 11.7% | Home | 32.3% | 7.9% | 16.2% | L14 Days | 35.7% | 8.3% | 16.6% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Red Sox | L2 Years | 29.7% | 11.5% | 8.8% | 2016 | 27.1% | 12.7% | 4.0% | Home | 27.3% | 14.8% | 4.4% | L14 Days | 23.1% | 5.3% | 2.6% |
| J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 31.1% | 11.3% | 13.4% | 2016 | 32.0% | 12.4% | 14.4% | Road | 31.6% | 13.0% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 27.6% | 10.0% | 17.3% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | Phillies | L2 Years | 32.0% | 10.5% | 12.5% | 2016 | 30.8% | 10.9% | 11.6% | Home | 28.3% | 10.7% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Jimmy Nelson | Brewers | L2 Years | 30.8% | 13.1% | 10.3% | 2016 | 32.8% | 14.2% | 11.2% | Road | 30.4% | 10.8% | 12.0% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 22.2% | 5.9% |
| Johnny Cueto | Giants | L2 Years | 27.5% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 2016 | 27.2% | 9.2% | 8.1% | Home | 24.3% | 6.1% | 4.9% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 16.7% | 8.1% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | L2 Years | 32.5% | 13.5% | 14.1% | 2016 | 33.4% | 10.7% | 15.6% | Road | 30.0% | 9.6% | 10.3% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 9.1% | 5.4% |
| Mike Montgomery | Cubs | L2 Years | 26.5% | 13.8% | 10.5% | 2016 | 25.5% | 14.9% | 7.4% | Home | 27.9% | 12.5% | 9.8% | L14 Days | 45.5% | 66.7% | 27.3% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 25.4% | 3.7% | 1.3% | 2016 | 26.8% | 2.4% | 3.5% | Road | 22.2% | 5.1% | -3.8% | L14 Days | 30.4% | 0.0% | 17.4% |
| Yovani Gallardo | Orioles | L2 Years | 26.3% | 10.2% | 9.8% | 2016 | 27.8% | 12.2% | 9.5% | Home | 27.5% | 9.3% | 10.8% | L14 Days | 29.4% | 30.0% | 8.8% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giants | Home | 26.7% | 7.5% | 5.9% | RH | 29.8% | 8.5% | 10.0% | L7Days | 32.0% | 10.6% | 15.1% |
| Dodgers | Road | 34.1% | 13.2% | 17.5% | RH | 34.6% | 16.0% | 17.9% | L7Days | 34.5% | 17.9% | 17.6% |
| Orioles | Home | 33.8% | 17.5% | 12.7% | LH | 31.7% | 12.0% | 10.6% | L7Days | 32.0% | 21.7% | 18.4% |
| Phillies | Home | 24.8% | 12.2% | 3.1% | RH | 28.9% | 13.1% | 7.7% | L7Days | 26.8% | 18.2% | 4.6% |
| Royals | Home | 30.8% | 9.1% | 10.9% | RH | 29.8% | 9.7% | 9.9% | L7Days | 22.2% | 8.2% | 3.2% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 32.8% | 14.9% | 13.2% | RH | 33.5% | 15.2% | 15.3% | L7Days | 36.7% | 11.5% | 20.4% |
| Athletics | Road | 30.0% | 12.4% | 9.6% | RH | 29.3% | 9.9% | 10.1% | L7Days | 29.6% | 8.5% | 12.0% |
| Yankees | Road | 29.6% | 10.3% | 12.9% | LH | 29.4% | 10.2% | 8.6% | L7Days | 25.4% | 20.0% | 5.9% |
| Angels | Home | 30.0% | 11.4% | 11.6% | LH | 29.7% | 10.8% | 9.8% | L7Days | 25.5% | 8.5% | 5.5% |
| Pirates | Road | 31.1% | 11.2% | 11.0% | RH | 30.7% | 10.4% | 10.3% | L7Days | 28.6% | 5.0% | 14.3% |
| Cubs | Home | 29.1% | 11.9% | 8.6% | RH | 31.6% | 12.6% | 11.9% | L7Days | 25.4% | 14.8% | 2.2% |
| Cardinals | Road | 33.9% | 16.0% | 16.9% | RH | 34.6% | 15.2% | 17.3% | L7Days | 30.8% | 10.3% | 13.5% |
| Red Sox | Home | 33.9% | 13.0% | 15.1% | RH | 34.8% | 13.5% | 16.1% | L7Days | 28.9% | 14.3% | 11.6% |
| Brewers | Road | 30.8% | 13.8% | 11.1% | LH | 33.3% | 16.0% | 15.7% | L7Days | 33.3% | 17.2% | 16.3% |
| Diamondbacks | Home | 34.9% | 17.5% | 19.7% | LH | 35.1% | 21.0% | 18.9% | L7Days | 38.2% | 34.8% | 23.5% |
| Rays | Road | 32.1% | 15.0% | 13.7% | RH | 32.9% | 14.7% | 13.5% | L7Days | 31.3% | 23.2% | 12.6% |
K/SwStr Chart (2016 LG AVG – 20.1 K% – 9.5 SwStr% – 2.12 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 19.1% | 8.3% | 2.30 | 21.4% | 9.3% | 2.30 |
| Archie Bradley | ARI | 20.9% | 7.8% | 2.68 | 18.4% | 8.6% | 2.14 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 23.6% | 10.4% | 2.27 | 24.7% | 11.9% | 2.08 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 16.0% | 8.9% | 1.80 | 14.5% | 9.8% | 1.48 |
| Daniel Mengden | OAK | 21.4% | 9.5% | 2.25 | 20.0% | 7.4% | 2.70 |
| Daniel Wright | ANA | 9.1% | 6.0% | 1.52 | 8.3% | 3.5% | 2.37 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 16.4% | 8.6% | 1.91 | 15.8% | 9.1% | 1.74 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 19.0% | 10.0% | 1.90 | 19.4% | 11.1% | 1.75 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 21.5% | 10.1% | 2.13 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 1.93 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 19.8% | 9.3% | 2.13 | 19.0% | 8.7% | 2.18 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 17.1% | 7.3% | 2.34 | 14.1% | 9.2% | 1.53 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 21.9% | 9.1% | 2.41 | 19.5% | 8.7% | 2.24 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 21.3% | 11.1% | 1.92 | 25.2% | 11.8% | 2.14 |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 22.4% | 11.4% | 1.96 | 23.5% | 13.1% | 1.79 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 29.3% | 10.6% | 2.76 | 30.8% | 9.7% | 3.18 |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | 15.3% | 6.4% | 2.39 | 11.7% | 6.3% | 1.86 |
Rich Hill has had a double digit SwStr% in 11 of his 17 starts and two of the ones where he didn’t were in his first three starts, so he’s consistently missed bats at a well above average rate, though perhaps we should have a slightly lower expectation of his strikeout rate going forward.
ERA Estimators Chart (2016 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.31 SIERA – 4.25 xFIP – 4.31 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 4.45 | 4.25 | -0.2 | 4.01 | -0.44 | 3.64 | -0.81 | 3.19 | 4.05 | 0.86 | 3.74 | 0.55 | 4.36 | 1.17 |
| Archie Bradley | ARI | 5.1 | 4.53 | -0.57 | 4.3 | -0.8 | 4.51 | -0.59 | 5.84 | 4.3 | -1.54 | 4 | -1.84 | 3.83 | -2.01 |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 3.62 | 4.67 | 1.05 | 4.45 | 0.83 | 3.61 | -0.01 | 4.87 | 4.84 | -0.03 | 4.83 | -0.04 | 4.12 | -0.75 |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 4.09 | 4.81 | 0.72 | 4.82 | 0.73 | 4.46 | 0.37 | 4.66 | 4.84 | 0.18 | 4.78 | 0.12 | 5.31 | 0.65 |
| Daniel Mengden | OAK | 6.39 | 4.67 | -1.72 | 4.72 | -1.67 | 4.54 | -1.85 | 10.57 | 4.7 | -5.87 | 4.6 | -5.97 | 6.01 | -4.56 |
| Daniel Wright | ANA | 7.5 | 5.3 | -2.2 | 5.8 | -1.7 | 5.97 | -1.53 | 7.2 | 5.74 | -1.46 | 7.17 | -0.03 | 9.34 | 2.14 |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 5.09 | 4.57 | -0.52 | 4.42 | -0.67 | 4.37 | -0.72 | 5.92 | 4.55 | -1.37 | 4.24 | -1.68 | 4.25 | -1.67 |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 4.7 | 4.74 | 0.04 | 4.91 | 0.21 | 4.87 | 0.17 | 2.7 | 4.92 | 2.22 | 5.18 | 2.48 | 4.12 | 1.42 |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 3.33 | 4.13 | 0.8 | 4.04 | 0.71 | 3.96 | 0.63 | 5.27 | 4.04 | -1.23 | 4.1 | -1.17 | 5.04 | -0.23 |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 3.73 | 4.19 | 0.46 | 4.27 | 0.54 | 3.97 | 0.24 | 3.3 | 4.59 | 1.29 | 4.77 | 1.47 | 3.71 | 0.41 |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 4.42 | 4.92 | 0.5 | 4.88 | 0.46 | 5.03 | 0.61 | 6.23 | 5.13 | -1.1 | 5.23 | -1 | 5.68 | -0.55 |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 2.9 | 3.65 | 0.75 | 3.51 | 0.61 | 3.11 | 0.21 | 2.56 | 3.86 | 1.3 | 3.65 | 1.09 | 3.71 | 1.15 |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 3.04 | 3.67 | 0.63 | 3.49 | 0.45 | 3.22 | 0.18 | 1.35 | 3.15 | 1.8 | 2.98 | 1.63 | 2.45 | 1.1 |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 2.74 | 3.59 | 0.85 | 3.65 | 0.91 | 3.78 | 1.04 | 3.54 | 4.53 | 0.99 | 4.13 | 0.59 | 5.3 | 1.76 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 1.8 | 3.36 | 1.56 | 3.51 | 1.71 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0 | 2.89 | 2.89 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.35 | 1.35 |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | 5.44 | 5.46 | 0.02 | 5.37 | -0.07 | 5.25 | -0.19 | 6.29 | 5.57 | -0.72 | 5.35 | -0.94 | 6.22 | -0.07 |
J.A. Happ still has an 80.4 LOB% that’s nearly six points above his career average.
Johnny Cueto has allowed three HRs at home and 12 on the road. This is a park where significant HR suppression does not surprise you, so it should neither surprise you that he has both an ERA and FIP a bit below his estimators.
Michael Montgomery has a 37.5 HR/FB in his four starts, but that’s because he’s only generated eight fly balls. His 27.2 LD% has only resulted in a .209 BABIP. Both results are significant regression candidates.
Rich Hill has allowed just two HRs this season (2.4 HR/FB). That’s obviously not even close to sustainable. I’d even venture to guess that he allows one tonight.
BABIP Chart (2016 LG AVG – .298 BABIP – 20.9 LD% – 9.5 IFFB% – 87.3 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Wainwright | STL | 0.300 | 0.325 | 0.025 | 0.25 | 10.5% | 91.5% |
| Archie Bradley | ARI | 0.325 | 0.325 | 0 | 0.231 | 6.5% | 87.5% |
| Blake Snell | TAM | 0.296 | 0.352 | 0.056 | 0.28 | 7.8% | 82.6% |
| Chad Kuhl | PIT | 0.304 | 0.275 | -0.029 | 0.192 | 1.8% | 86.6% |
| Daniel Mengden | OAK | 0.302 | 0.345 | 0.043 | 0.257 | 5.0% | 86.1% |
| Daniel Wright | ANA | 0.301 | 0.380 | 0.079 | 0.219 | 10.3% | 90.6% |
| Edinson Volquez | KAN | 0.295 | 0.318 | 0.023 | 0.198 | 8.2% | 89.2% |
| Eduardo Rodriguez | BOS | 0.293 | 0.260 | -0.033 | 0.225 | 12.7% | 87.8% |
| J.A. Happ | TOR | 0.285 | 0.274 | -0.011 | 0.227 | 10.0% | 84.2% |
| Jerad Eickhoff | PHI | 0.303 | 0.292 | -0.011 | 0.215 | 13.4% | 88.5% |
| Jimmy Nelson | MIL | 0.298 | 0.299 | 0.001 | 0.195 | 12.2% | 88.9% |
| Johnny Cueto | SFO | 0.285 | 0.284 | -0.001 | 0.195 | 10.4% | 87.4% |
| Masahiro Tanaka | NYY | 0.294 | 0.278 | -0.016 | 0.219 | 11.9% | 87.0% |
| Mike Montgomery | CHC | 0.251 | 0.275 | 0.024 | 0.227 | 10.6% | 85.7% |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 0.284 | 0.261 | -0.023 | 0.159 | 13.1% | 78.7% |
| Yovani Gallardo | BAL | 0.301 | 0.301 | 0 | 0.194 | 6.5% | 91.4% |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
The original inkling was to go with just the top three pitchers and scrap the last tier, but it felt like cheating leaving readers with so few options. If salary is not a consideration. If salary is not an issue, Hill and Cueto are easy favorites with very little separation.
Value Tier One
Michael Montgomery is in a dangerous spot as a lefty facing the Brewers tonight, but who isn’t on this board? While there are significant risks and an expectation of only five innings, you’re getting a top three strikeout rate for less than $5K on DraftKings. He’s a two to one favorite, who can probably pay off on FanDuel for nearly $2K more as well with a strong bullpen behind him to hold a lead. The low inning expectation is not an issue at this cost and with a reasonably high strikeout expectation.
Value Tier Two
Rich Hill (1) was perfect through 21 batters with nine strikeouts last time out and has been nearly that good in all three of his starts for the Dodgers, heck in most of his starts this year. While an incredibly tough matchup in a bad park against a scorching hot offense that pummels lefties is certainly a concern, a bigger one might be his pitch count. He blows away any other strikeout rate on the board even, but $12K is still going to be a challenge here. He’s dropped down at least a tier or two on a normal day, but is probably still my most favored pitcher for less than $10K on Fanduel. He might have more risk, but also easily more upside than any pitcher on the slate.
Value Tier Three
Johnny Cueto (2) is facing a tough offense tonight, but luckily seems to be catching them at the right time in the right park. We could really meld the second and third tiers today as I have he and Hill rated very closely together despite being very different pitchers in very different environments. I’d probably consider him the “safest” play tonight, which isn’t saying very much on this slate.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jerad Eickhoff could present some marginal value in this spot for an average cost if we consider him an average pitcher. Even though it’s a power friendly park, the Pirates have shown little of that this year (yes, partially due to their home park crushing RH power) and have been more vulnerable on the road this season.
J.A. Happ may still be a bit over-priced at nearly $9K on FanDuel facing the least strikeout prone offense in baseball, where he’ll certainly need the Win to pay off, but is a more borderline option for $500 less on DraftKings in a decent run prevention environment against a lineup that has been struggling.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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