Advanced Stats - Pitching: Wednesday, June 21st
Only the 11-game night slate will be listed today because this won’t be up by noon when the first games get underway. It’s also sort of a mercy not making readers look at a Max Scherzer they can’t use. While losing the best pitcher in the National League hurts any slate, it’s not a death blow to this one. There may not be a dominant arm on the slate, but there should be enough to get by.
As always, don’t forget to check lineups, umpire assignments, line movement, ownership projections and the weather forecast as they are released later in the day, all of which may change the equation and help you decide between two pitchers of otherwise equal value in a pinch. All of these things are available right here on the site.
Starting Pitching Main Chart
| Pitcher | Team | Team Def | SIERA L2Yrs | IP/GS L2Yrs | GB% L2Yrs | Park Run | Hm/Rd xFIP | SIERA L14 | Opp | Opp Hm/Rd | Opp L/R wRC+ | Opp L7 wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | -4.5 | 3.24 | 6.11 | 49.3% | 1.02 | 3.27 | 4.23 | BAL | 95 | 95 | 123 |
| David Holmberg | CHW | -0.3 | 5.52 | 4.51 | 42.6% | 1.04 | 4.72 | 4.3 | MIN | 101 | 95 | 87 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 7.9 | 3.69 | 5.61 | 46.3% | 0.89 | 3.61 | 5.72 | DET | 83 | 103 | 80 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 1.1 | 4.35 | 5.27 | 42.9% | 1.39 | 5.08 | 4.56 | ARI | 76 | 105 | 85 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.6 | 4 | 6.47 | 43.0% | 1 | 3.73 | 4.41 | ATL | 90 | 93 | 104 |
| Joe Biagini | TOR | -2.3 | 3.55 | 4.76 | 55.1% | 1.11 | 3.85 | 5.43 | TEX | 99 | 94 | 112 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 5.8 | 4.3 | 5.75 | 40.1% | 1.01 | 4.23 | 3.35 | ANA | 81 | 90 | 112 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 3.9 | 4.8 | 4.96 | 39.8% | 1.04 | 4.71 | 3.91 | CHW | 92 | 87 | 131 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | -3.4 | 4.69 | 5.89 | 44.1% | 1.02 | 4.71 | 7.15 | PIT | 89 | 93 | 86 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 2.6 | 3.83 | 6.53 | 34.0% | 0.89 | 4.28 | 6.17 | SEA | 112 | 106 | 110 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | -2.7 | 4.14 | 5.73 | 43.8% | 1.02 | 4.13 | 5.75 | CLE | 103 | 106 | 161 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | -7.8 | 4.26 | 5.55 | 45.9% | 0.96 | 4.27 | 5.22 | PHI | 92 | 81 | 57 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | -1.9 | 4.21 | 5.73 | 42.5% | 0.93 | 4.59 | 3.64 | OAK | 115 | 101 | 120 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 2.4 | 4.67 | 5.16 | 38.5% | 0.96 | 2.87 | 4.68 | STL | 93 | 98 | 131 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 2 | 3.53 | 5.44 | 44.5% | 0.89 | 4.27 | 4.86 | NYM | 113 | 86 | 105 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | -1.5 | 4.39 | 5.94 | 42.0% | 1.01 | 4.49 | 4.94 | NYY | 132 | 122 | 98 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | -14.2 | 4 | 5.75 | 45.3% | 0.93 | 4.14 | 4.27 | HOU | 126 | 113 | 173 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | -0.6 | 4.79 | 6.05 | 52.8% | 1 | 4.27 | 4.79 | SFO | 83 | 81 | 114 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | -7.4 | 3.9 | 5.67 | 42.7% | 1.39 | 4.55 | 3.27 | COL | 84 | 82 | 120 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | -6.8 | 4.77 | 4.91 | 43.3% | 1.02 | 4.5 | 4.65 | MIL | 95 | 95 | 101 |
| Tyler Pill | NYM | -1.5 | 4.66 | 5.05 | 48.7% | 0.89 | 9.95 | 4.85 | LOS | 121 | 108 | 158 |
| Tyson Ross | TEX | 4.5 | 3.26 | 6. | 59.3% | 1.11 | 4.22 | 4.96 | TOR | 89 | 92 | 113 |
Carlos Carrasco is running out numbers similar to career rates, though BABIP and GB rate is down a bit. His strikeout rate has been more consistently solid than occasionally flashing the immense upside he’s shown in the past. He’s exceeded seven strikeouts just once with a season high of eight, but has only struck out fewer than five twice (his previous two starts before his last one). He has held RHBs to a .247 wOBA with a 21.4 K-BB% this year, which could enhance his matchup in Baltimore beyond neutral. The Orioles have shown more power recently, but have a 16.0 K-BB% vs RHP and 19.6 K-BB% over the last week.
James Paxton has allowed 14 ERs over his last 12.2 innings (three starts) with three HRs, while striking out just 11 of the 66 batters he’s faced, while walking nine. His velocity has reduced in each of his last three starts. His hard hit rate has increased in each of the last two and been above 40%. There would appear to be something wrong. If there isn’t, he would be our top pitcher tonight, generating a slate low 3.3% Barrels/BBE among pitchers with more than a couple of starts and second best 26.8% 95+ mph EV, while he faces a Detroit offense that struggles on the road in a great park.
Jeff Samardzija struck out a season low four batters in his last start in Colorado. Fifteen of his 49 ERs have come at Coors this season. He has a 3.81 ERA with a 29 K% outside of Coors this year. Even with those starts, his 24.1 K-BB% is fourth in the league this season. His 22.6 Soft% is ninth highest among qualifiers. He may be in somewhat of a neutral spot in Atlanta if we call the park a positive run environment. The Braves have just a 10.3 HR/FB at home, but strike out less than the average offense.
Joe Biagini has his first poor start last time out against the White Sox of all teams. In fact, it was a disaster, allowing seven runs in just one inning of work without striking out any of the 12 batters he faced. These things happen. Over eight starts, he still has an average 12.7 K-BB% with a league average 9.7 SwStr%, 58.5 GB% and 26.6 Hard%. The caveats would be just a 45 GB% in each of his last two and 7.0% or lower SwStr rate in four of his last five, though quality of contact has remained strong up until his last start. He’s facing a marginal Texas offense (23.4 K% vs RHP) in a tough park, but the outlook improves if he can keep the ball on the ground.
Jordan Montgomery has the second highest SwStr% on the board with some odd home/road splits that are probably due to sample size. Although having similar ERAs, he’s generated a 20.1 K-BB% at home that’s more than double his 8.9% road mark, but way fewer ground balls (35.5% vs 44.2%) and more hard contact (29.8% vs 21.9%). The incredible peripherals have allowed him to better navigate the tribulations of Yankee Stadium. The Angels have an 18.5 K% vs LHP, but also just an 8.8 HR/FB. This is a solid spot in a park that’s more power than run friendly.
NOT AS GOOD AS THEY LOOK (OR THE FADE LIST)
This list is reserved for pitchers who may look attractive because their ERAs are much lower than their estimators. The reason for this is almost always extreme BABIP, LOB, and/or HR/FB deviation from the norm, so we’ll just quote those stats and be done with them.
League AVG (.293 BABIP – 72.9 LOB% – 14.1 HR/FB)
Jeff Hoffman (.259 – 85.8% – 7.3) allowed just one run against the Giants last time out, striking out just two, while walking three. It was his first poor start from a peripheral standpoint and the first time his SwStr rate (4.9%) was below 10%. While his 23.6 K-BB% is fantastic, perhaps that’s too much to expect going forward and his 33.7 GB% with a 34.5 Hard% could pose some problems in home starts. It may be the worst spot on the board despite Arizona’s severe road struggles (24.1 K%). I believe him to be accurately priced in this spot, though I could be wrong as he’s made such fairly large strides in the majors from a guy with an 11.6 K-BB% at AAA this season.
Jose Berrios (_.230 – 81.1% – 7.5) was supposed to be the guy today until I noticed some numbers that weren’t so ideal. First were the estimators a run higher than his ERA and second was the enormous price tag. He’s been good, not great and his SwStr% has only hit double digits in two of seven starts. He is throwing more strikes and managing contact exceptionally well so far though (22.2 Hard%, 26.5% 95+ mph EV). The White Sox are a favorable matchup (16.5 K-BB% vs RHP), but also a hot one (25.0 Hard-Soft% over the last week). The cost is just so high though.
Junior Guerra (.180 – 89% – 14.3) has generated a double digit SwStr% in four of six starts, but no more than five strikeouts in any of them and only even that many once. While that’s likely to improve, his last three starts have been his worst by SwStr% and his 12.6 BB% is a significant problem, hidden by his BABIP and strand rate.
David Holmberg (.169 – 76.6% – 6.1)
NO THANK YOU (In order from least to most offensive)
Taijuan Walker struck out six of 22 batters in his return from injury after missing a month. He threw just 82 pitches in that start, which probably puts him around 90 tonight in Colorado, but for less than $6K, he almost has to be considered. Healthy, he still has potential as he flashed a 20.8 K-BB% with an 11.5 SwStr% in April before just a 2.0 K-BB% and 7.2 SwStr% in four May starts prior to hitting the DL. Coors is still the worst spot on the board even against a below average offense.
Sean Manaea has the third highest SwStr% in baseball and hasn’t been below 14% in five starts. He faces the Astros though (17.4 K% vs LHP, 22 HR/FB last seven days).
Sean Newcomb has a more impressive SwStr% than his K% through two starts, but that’s because his double digit walk rate reared its ugly head in his second one, as he walked more (four) than he struck out (three). That’s the issue. The Giants have been a bad offense, though not as much lately, and that’s been more due to lack of power than a lot of strikeouts.
Michael Wacha struck out at least six in four of his first six starts, but five or fewer in each of his last six. He walked a total of nine over those first six starts, but 17 over his last six. His K-BB was 17.2% over his first six starts, 7.0% over his last six. That seems like a clear picture. However, he has the top matchup on the board (Phillies 16.0 K-BB% vs RHP), which complicates things slightly, but still doesn’t make him a tremendous value for more than $7K.
Justin Verlander has been merely an average pitcher at an above average cost. His extreme fly ball tendencies along with even fewer strikeouts over the last month make him a significant risk against a good offense, even in a favorable park.
Rich Hill threw 105 pitches in his last start, so that’s a victory. He still has a 14.7 BB% on the season and has yet to go more than five innings in any start.
Mike Fiers maintains a league average strikeout rate over the last month, but his HR rate has plummeted with a 79.2 LOB%. He allowed 18 HRs over his first nine starts, but none over his last four. The truth is probably somewhere in between. His hard hit rate has been below 20% in three of his last four as well. He’s thrown more fastballs, changeups and curveballs, while cutting usage of his cutter and slider to nearly nothing. It’s been a substantial philosophical change in approach. Oakland has a 25 K% vs RHP, but also some RH power. He’s a reverse platoon pitcher. This could be interesting.
Nick Pivetta struck out nine of 26 Red Sox in his last start (seven shutout innings). He had just an 8.4 SwStr%, which was actually his highest in three starts since recall. He has an 11.2 K-BB% overall, while out-performing his SwStr%. I’m skeptical.
Tyson Ross has both a 12.9 K% and BB% in four minor league rehab starts this year. He at least improved on the strikeout rate, whiffing five of 22 Mariners in his season debut (three walks). He does have a career 16.4 K-BB% against RHBs, which could play well against Toronto, but not in this park if he’s going to continue walking so many.
Trevor Williams is a low strikeout pitcher in a high strikeout spot, which gets him this high on the list.
Tyler Pill will be serving batting practice to Bellinger and Seager tonight in the…Pill Hill matchup.
K/BB Chart
Pitcher and Opponent K% & BB% for titled splits, similar to the Main Chart.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 27.1% | 6.2% | Road | 27.1% | 5.4% | L14 Days | 22.9% | 8.3% |
| David Holmberg | White Sox | L2 Years | 12.9% | 10.4% | Road | 15.8% | 7.0% | L14 Days | 19.4% | 5.6% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 24.0% | 6.4% | Home | 23.9% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 13.6% |
| Jeff Hoffman | Rockies | L2 Years | 21.2% | 8.4% | Home | 18.3% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 20.0% | 8.0% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 20.9% | 5.8% | Road | 22.3% | 5.1% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 3.8% |
| Joe Biagini | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 20.7% | 6.0% | Road | 20.5% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 12.8% | 7.7% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 22.8% | 8.3% | Home | 27.1% | 6.9% | L14 Days | 25.0% | 3.9% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 20.3% | 10.6% | Home | 21.8% | 9.9% | L14 Days | 25.5% | 7.3% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 19.3% | 9.5% | Home | 18.4% | 9.1% | L14 Days | 11.5% | 15.4% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 25.0% | 7.3% | Road | 24.2% | 8.7% | L14 Days | 16.7% | 16.7% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 20.7% | 7.1% | Home | 20.3% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 16.0% | 13.3% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 20.4% | 8.5% | Road | 19.3% | 8.0% | L14 Days | 15.2% | 10.9% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 20.1% | 7.1% | Road | 17.9% | 7.4% | L14 Days | 22.2% | 7.4% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Years | 22.5% | 11.3% | Home | 29.4% | 3.9% | L14 Days | 23.4% | 12.8% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 28.5% | 8.7% | Home | 24.7% | 11.6% | L14 Days | 20.9% | 11.6% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 18.4% | 5.8% | Road | 18.6% | 5.9% | L14 Days | 10.5% | 3.5% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 22.6% | 7.2% | Home | 21.8% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 21.8% | 7.3% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | L2 Years | 19.2% | 11.5% | Home | 19.2% | 11.5% | L14 Days | 19.2% | 11.5% |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 21.7% | 5.8% | Road | 19.3% | 7.3% | L14 Days | 27.3% | 4.6% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Years | 15.7% | 7.0% | Road | 17.1% | 6.4% | L14 Days | 15.4% | 5.1% |
| Tyler Pill | Mets | L2 Years | 14.3% | 7.1% | Road | 0.0% | 12.5% | L14 Days | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Tyson Ross | Rangers | L2 Years | 26.0% | 9.0% | Home | 20.4% | 8.2% | L14 Days | 22.7% | 13.6% |
K/BB Chart – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% | Split | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orioles | Home | 22.1% | 7.2% | RH | 22.7% | 6.7% | L7Days | 24.6% | 5.0% |
| Twins | Home | 21.6% | 10.7% | LH | 19.0% | 10.8% | L7Days | 21.8% | 9.1% |
| Tigers | Road | 24.4% | 9.7% | LH | 19.3% | 8.4% | L7Days | 21.6% | 7.2% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 24.1% | 8.0% | RH | 22.4% | 9.2% | L7Days | 18.7% | 7.3% |
| Braves | Home | 19.2% | 7.7% | RH | 19.4% | 7.7% | L7Days | 20.7% | 5.9% |
| Rangers | Home | 22.2% | 9.4% | RH | 23.4% | 8.8% | L7Days | 21.4% | 9.4% |
| Angels | Road | 21.2% | 9.6% | LH | 18.5% | 9.4% | L7Days | 17.6% | 3.6% |
| White Sox | Road | 22.0% | 5.9% | RH | 22.7% | 6.2% | L7Days | 20.7% | 7.3% |
| Pirates | Road | 19.2% | 8.7% | RH | 18.4% | 8.6% | L7Days | 16.5% | 8.0% |
| Mariners | Home | 20.0% | 9.6% | RH | 21.0% | 8.3% | L7Days | 23.0% | 7.1% |
| Indians | Road | 18.2% | 9.7% | RH | 19.7% | 9.5% | L7Days | 12.9% | 11.8% |
| Phillies | Home | 21.6% | 8.6% | RH | 23.7% | 7.7% | L7Days | 26.5% | 8.8% |
| Athletics | Home | 24.4% | 8.7% | RH | 25.0% | 8.9% | L7Days | 25.8% | 11.1% |
| Cardinals | Road | 20.6% | 8.5% | RH | 20.6% | 8.5% | L7Days | 18.0% | 10.2% |
| Mets | Road | 20.3% | 9.1% | LH | 22.3% | 7.5% | L7Days | 23.0% | 6.6% |
| Yankees | Home | 22.7% | 11.2% | RH | 22.1% | 9.7% | L7Days | 25.4% | 8.1% |
| Astros | Road | 18.4% | 9.0% | LH | 17.4% | 9.8% | L7Days | 16.9% | 9.9% |
| Giants | Road | 19.3% | 8.4% | LH | 19.4% | 7.9% | L7Days | 16.2% | 7.0% |
| Rockies | Home | 21.1% | 7.3% | RH | 21.8% | 7.9% | L7Days | 21.6% | 5.2% |
| Brewers | Home | 26.7% | 8.6% | RH | 24.7% | 8.7% | L7Days | 25.2% | 5.6% |
| Dodgers | Home | 22.4% | 9.7% | RH | 23.4% | 10.2% | L7Days | 21.9% | 11.8% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 21.6% | 8.8% | RH | 20.3% | 7.8% | L7Days | 18.2% | 9.8% |
Batted Ball Chart
Pitcher and Opponent Batted Ball stats.
| Pitcher | Team | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco | Indians | L2 Years | 30.7% | 15.2% | 13.8% | 2017 | 29.9% | 12.7% | 13.3% | Road | 31.5% | 9.9% | 13.1% | L14 Days | 31.3% | 10.0% | 12.5% |
| David Holmberg | White Sox | L2 Years | 34.1% | 16.2% | 18.2% | 2017 | 34.2% | 6.1% | 11.4% | Road | 45.5% | 11.8% | 34.1% | L14 Days | 29.6% | 10.0% | 22.2% |
| James Paxton | Mariners | L2 Years | 32.2% | 7.6% | 17.6% | 2017 | 30.7% | 5.7% | 15.7% | Home | 30.2% | 6.8% | 16.5% | L14 Days | 37.0% | 20.0% | 21.8% |
| Jeff Hoffman | Rockies | L2 Years | 34.4% | 14.1% | 15.1% | 2017 | 34.5% | 7.3% | 16.6% | Home | 37.4% | 11.8% | 20.5% | L14 Days | 34.3% | 0.0% | 20.0% |
| Jeff Samardzija | Giants | L2 Years | 29.2% | 12.6% | 10.0% | 2017 | 28.0% | 16.5% | 5.4% | Road | 29.4% | 15.6% | 10.7% | L14 Days | 26.8% | 22.2% | -2.5% |
| Joe Biagini | Blue Jays | L2 Years | 24.4% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 2017 | 26.0% | 6.4% | 5.8% | Road | 20.7% | 6.1% | 3.3% | L14 Days | 29.0% | 0.0% | 12.9% |
| Jordan Montgomery | Yankees | L2 Years | 25.6% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 2017 | 25.6% | 9.4% | 11.5% | Home | 29.8% | 10.6% | 12.8% | L14 Days | 32.4% | 25.0% | 13.5% |
| Jose Berrios | Twins | L2 Years | 29.1% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 2017 | 22.2% | 7.5% | 4.2% | Home | 29.9% | 10.0% | 13.5% | L14 Days | 27.8% | 5.9% | 8.4% |
| Junior Guerra | Brewers | L2 Years | 32.1% | 10.4% | 11.2% | 2017 | 26.3% | 14.3% | 2.1% | Home | 32.8% | 10.3% | 11.4% | L14 Days | 27.0% | 14.3% | -5.4% |
| Justin Verlander | Tigers | L2 Years | 29.0% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 2017 | 38.5% | 9.3% | 24.2% | Road | 30.6% | 10.9% | 13.2% | L14 Days | 52.8% | 0.0% | 44.5% |
| Kevin Gausman | Orioles | L2 Years | 30.8% | 14.7% | 11.4% | 2017 | 34.0% | 14.8% | 16.6% | Home | 30.6% | 12.8% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 34.0% | 18.8% | 20.8% |
| Michael Wacha | Cardinals | L2 Years | 30.1% | 12.9% | 9.9% | 2017 | 26.3% | 13.6% | 5.9% | Road | 27.7% | 13.6% | 9.6% | L14 Days | 26.5% | 12.5% | -5.9% |
| Mike Fiers | Astros | L2 Years | 31.5% | 16.0% | 13.0% | 2017 | 28.8% | 24.3% | 9.6% | Road | 33.5% | 20.3% | 16.7% | L14 Days | 18.9% | 0.0% | -5.4% |
| Nick Pivetta | Phillies | L2 Years | 36.2% | 13.5% | 24.8% | 2017 | 36.2% | 13.5% | 24.8% | Home | 45.5% | 30.0% | 39.4% | L14 Days | 30.0% | 0.0% | 16.7% |
| Rich Hill | Dodgers | L2 Years | 26.8% | 7.0% | 3.3% | 2017 | 25.5% | 12.2% | 2.1% | Home | 30.6% | 6.9% | 11.2% | L14 Days | 18.5% | 11.1% | 0.0% |
| Ricky Nolasco | Angels | L2 Years | 35.6% | 14.4% | 21.6% | 2017 | 39.7% | 20.6% | 26.2% | Road | 39.8% | 15.7% | 27.3% | L14 Days | 47.9% | 21.4% | 39.6% |
| Sean Manaea | Athletics | L2 Years | 34.3% | 13.0% | 16.3% | 2017 | 36.1% | 11.5% | 19.2% | Home | 32.8% | 10.5% | 16.4% | L14 Days | 42.1% | 18.8% | 39.5% |
| Sean Newcomb | Braves | L2 Years | 13.9% | 11.1% | -11.1% | 2017 | 13.9% | 11.1% | -11.1% | Home | 13.9% | 11.1% | -11.1% | L14 Days | 13.9% | 11.1% | -11.1% |
| Taijuan Walker | Diamondbacks | L2 Years | 30.3% | 14.6% | 11.9% | 2017 | 34.3% | 7.4% | 18.6% | Road | 30.4% | 13.7% | 10.9% | L14 Days | 46.7% | 0.0% | 40.0% |
| Trevor Williams | Pirates | L2 Years | 29.4% | 14.5% | 5.5% | 2017 | 28.9% | 11.1% | 3.5% | Road | 25.5% | 22.9% | 1.9% | L14 Days | 36.7% | 20.0% | 13.4% |
| Tyler Pill | Mets | L2 Years | 28.6% | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2017 | 28.6% | 0.0% | 2.4% | Road | 50.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% | L14 Days | 33.3% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Tyson Ross | Rangers | L2 Years | 24.2% | 8.5% | 4.6% | 2017 | 14.3% | 0.0% | 14.3% | Home | 30.3% | 0.0% | 18.2% | L14 Days | 14.3% | 0.0% | 14.3% |
Batted Ball Charts – Opponent
| Opponent | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% | Split | Hard% | HR/FB% | Hd-St% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orioles | Home | 29.0% | 16.1% | 8.2% | RH | 29.8% | 15.6% | 9.2% | L7Days | 32.0% | 22.1% | 14.0% |
| Twins | Home | 33.6% | 12.6% | 17.2% | LH | 30.6% | 9.0% | 11.9% | L7Days | 32.0% | 15.6% | 11.6% |
| Tigers | Road | 35.2% | 12.8% | 18.4% | LH | 40.8% | 15.9% | 25.0% | L7Days | 37.6% | 11.9% | 22.0% |
| Diamondbacks | Road | 31.1% | 12.9% | 10.8% | RH | 36.6% | 16.2% | 19.5% | L7Days | 36.2% | 12.5% | 13.5% |
| Braves | Home | 29.5% | 10.3% | 11.5% | RH | 31.3% | 11.1% | 13.5% | L7Days | 27.7% | 12.5% | 10.6% |
| Rangers | Home | 33.9% | 16.0% | 14.2% | RH | 33.0% | 15.5% | 12.8% | L7Days | 41.3% | 19.0% | 23.3% |
| Angels | Road | 32.7% | 10.9% | 13.2% | LH | 29.7% | 8.8% | 12.9% | L7Days | 32.2% | 12.5% | 15.8% |
| White Sox | Road | 32.5% | 14.3% | 15.0% | RH | 31.7% | 13.7% | 13.1% | L7Days | 39.2% | 17.9% | 25.0% |
| Pirates | Road | 30.4% | 11.9% | 8.6% | RH | 30.3% | 10.5% | 8.3% | L7Days | 28.2% | 13.2% | 7.9% |
| Mariners | Home | 29.2% | 11.9% | 9.7% | RH | 30.9% | 11.9% | 13.0% | L7Days | 29.8% | 14.5% | 10.5% |
| Indians | Road | 36.0% | 12.4% | 19.2% | RH | 34.0% | 13.4% | 17.8% | L7Days | 33.9% | 16.0% | 16.4% |
| Phillies | Home | 30.8% | 13.5% | 10.4% | RH | 29.8% | 10.2% | 8.4% | L7Days | 32.9% | 7.7% | 11.7% |
| Athletics | Home | 32.3% | 16.5% | 17.4% | RH | 34.5% | 14.4% | 18.3% | L7Days | 30.6% | 11.6% | 12.9% |
| Cardinals | Road | 32.7% | 14.2% | 15.5% | RH | 31.0% | 13.6% | 12.1% | L7Days | 36.2% | 27.0% | 21.8% |
| Mets | Road | 38.0% | 17.3% | 20.8% | LH | 34.7% | 11.3% | 13.2% | L7Days | 34.5% | 16.4% | 16.7% |
| Yankees | Home | 32.2% | 21.0% | 10.4% | RH | 32.5% | 18.1% | 13.2% | L7Days | 28.6% | 14.5% | 6.5% |
| Astros | Road | 32.2% | 15.0% | 14.7% | LH | 27.0% | 15.6% | 6.9% | L7Days | 34.9% | 22.0% | 18.0% |
| Giants | Road | 29.8% | 11.1% | 8.2% | LH | 26.8% | 7.8% | 6.8% | L7Days | 26.3% | 14.7% | -1.5% |
| Rockies | Home | 30.8% | 15.3% | 10.7% | RH | 29.4% | 13.0% | 9.4% | L7Days | 32.0% | 12.1% | 11.3% |
| Brewers | Home | 37.1% | 19.7% | 16.5% | RH | 33.5% | 19.3% | 14.0% | L7Days | 32.2% | 29.8% | 11.1% |
| Dodgers | Home | 36.0% | 18.1% | 22.0% | RH | 34.9% | 15.4% | 20.1% | L7Days | 38.3% | 27.9% | 24.3% |
| Blue Jays | Road | 32.7% | 16.2% | 13.4% | RH | 31.1% | 15.7% | 11.4% | L7Days | 34.2% | 15.8% | 17.4% |
K/SwStr Chart (2017 LG AVG – 20.4 K% – 9.7 SwStr% – 2.1 K/SwStr)
Getting called strikeouts can be a skill, but it’s usually not a sustainable one at a large deviation from the league rate (catcher framing and other factors may make some difference here). K% correlates heavily with SwStr% though. Look for a large difference and you might find a potential adjustment before anyone else.
| Pitcher | Team | K% Season | SwStr% Season | K%/SwStr% | K% L30 Days | SwStr% L30 Days | K%/SwStr% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 24.9% | 11.7% | 2.13 | 22.0% | 11.5% | 1.91 |
| David Holmberg | CHW | 15.2% | 5.1% | 2.98 | 13.9% | 5.6% | 2.48 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 26.4% | 12.4% | 2.13 | 20.0% | 9.9% | 2.02 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 28.4% | 11.3% | 2.51 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.76 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 27.5% | 10.7% | 2.57 | 25.6% | 10.7% | 2.39 |
| Joe Biagini | TOR | 20.3% | 9.1% | 2.23 | 18.6% | 8.7% | 2.14 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 22.8% | 12.9% | 1.77 | 24.0% | 13.4% | 1.79 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 24.7% | 10.0% | 2.47 | 23.4% | 9.1% | 2.57 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 15.6% | 10.5% | 1.49 | 13.7% | 10.1% | 1.36 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 20.7% | 9.1% | 2.27 | 16.9% | 8.6% | 1.97 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 15.1% | 8.2% | 1.84 | 13.6% | 6.4% | 2.13 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 22.0% | 9.7% | 2.27 | 20.0% | 9.1% | 2.20 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 20.0% | 9.8% | 2.04 | 20.6% | 9.8% | 2.10 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 22.5% | 7.2% | 3.13 | 21.4% | 5.2% | 4.12 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 22.4% | 8.8% | 2.55 | 21.4% | 9.2% | 2.33 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 19.4% | 10.4% | 1.87 | 17.1% | 10.5% | 1.63 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 26.4% | 15.0% | 1.76 | 27.9% | 16.7% | 1.67 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 19.2% | 11.4% | 1.68 | 19.2% | 11.4% | 1.68 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 21.2% | 9.9% | 2.14 | 27.3% | 13.4% | 2.04 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 15.0% | 7.9% | 1.90 | 16.1% | 8.6% | 1.87 |
| Tyler Pill | NYM | 14.3% | 6.3% | 2.27 | 14.3% | 6.3% | 2.27 |
| Tyson Ross | TEX | 22.7% | 5.3% | 4.28 | 22.7% | 5.3% | 4.28 |
Our outliers today don’t have very many starts, while there are a couple of cautionary tales over the last month (Hoffman and Pivetta).
ERA Estimators Chart (2017 LG AVG – 4.35 ERA – 4.32 SIERA – 4.26 xFIP – 4.37 FIP)
How a pitcher’s ERA matches up against his defense independent estimators.
| Pitcher | Team | Season ERA | Season SIERA | DIFF | Season xFIP | DIFF | Season FIP | DIFF | Season DRA | DIFF | ERA L30 | SIERA L30 | DIFF | xFIP L30 | DIFF | FIP L30 | DIFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 3.21 | 3.81 | 0.6 | 3.74 | 0.53 | 3.62 | 0.41 | 2.80 | -0.41 | 4.3 | 4.47 | 0.17 | 4.77 | 0.47 | 4.15 | -0.15 |
| David Holmberg | CHW | 2.63 | 5.07 | 2.44 | 5.21 | 2.58 | 4 | 1.37 | 5.59 | 2.96 | 3.15 | 5.4 | 2.25 | 5.55 | 2.4 | 4.53 | 1.38 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 3.23 | 3.86 | 0.63 | 3.68 | 0.45 | 2.68 | -0.55 | 2.39 | -0.84 | 7 | 4.76 | -2.24 | 4.53 | -2.47 | 4.9 | -2.1 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 2.25 | 3.37 | 1.12 | 3.82 | 1.57 | 2.75 | 0.5 | 2.96 | 0.71 | 1.42 | 3.48 | 2.06 | 3.85 | 2.43 | 2.18 | 0.76 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 4.81 | 3.19 | -1.62 | 3.07 | -1.74 | 3.4 | -1.41 | 2.74 | -2.07 | 5.28 | 3.29 | -1.99 | 3.19 | -2.09 | 4.24 | -1.04 |
| Joe Biagini | TOR | 4.26 | 3.66 | -0.6 | 3.71 | -0.55 | 2.92 | -1.34 | 2.73 | -1.53 | 5.33 | 4.15 | -1.18 | 4.11 | -1.22 | 2.93 | -2.4 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 3.78 | 4.3 | 0.52 | 4.5 | 0.72 | 3.81 | 0.03 | 3.66 | -0.12 | 2.43 | 3.76 | 1.33 | 3.83 | 1.4 | 3.53 | 1.1 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 2.74 | 4 | 1.26 | 4.53 | 1.79 | 3.6 | 0.86 | 3.11 | 0.37 | 3.82 | 4.32 | 0.5 | 4.62 | 0.8 | 4.33 | 0.51 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 2.84 | 5.79 | 2.95 | 5.97 | 3.13 | 6.06 | 3.22 | 5.84 | 3.00 | 2.51 | 6.23 | 3.72 | 6.32 | 3.81 | 6.09 | 3.58 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 4.5 | 5.02 | 0.52 | 5.24 | 0.74 | 4.49 | -0.01 | 3.76 | -0.74 | 4.73 | 5.53 | 0.8 | 5.3 | 0.57 | 5.3 | 0.57 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 6.6 | 5.41 | -1.19 | 5.34 | -1.26 | 5.5 | -1.1 | 7.19 | 0.59 | 6.51 | 5.73 | -0.78 | 5.46 | -1.05 | 5.8 | -0.71 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 4.78 | 4.43 | -0.35 | 4.17 | -0.61 | 4.14 | -0.64 | 4.58 | -0.20 | 8.86 | 5.13 | -3.73 | 4.89 | -3.97 | 5.56 | -3.3 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 4 | 4.44 | 0.44 | 4.37 | 0.37 | 5.78 | 1.78 | 5.69 | 1.69 | 2.4 | 4.13 | 1.73 | 3.92 | 1.52 | 2.93 | 0.53 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 4.46 | 4.67 | 0.21 | 4.53 | 0.07 | 4.5 | 0.04 | 6.08 | 1.62 | 3.71 | 4.95 | 1.24 | 4.42 | 0.71 | 2.95 | -0.76 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 5.14 | 5.22 | 0.08 | 5.54 | 0.4 | 5.3 | 0.16 | 7.47 | 2.33 | 6.55 | 5.79 | -0.76 | 6.18 | -0.37 | 5.17 | -1.38 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 5.01 | 4.43 | -0.58 | 4.6 | -0.41 | 5.75 | 0.74 | 7.00 | 1.99 | 6.91 | 4.49 | -2.42 | 4.63 | -2.28 | 6.27 | -0.64 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 4.01 | 3.94 | -0.07 | 3.96 | -0.05 | 3.69 | -0.32 | 2.50 | -1.51 | 2.73 | 3.56 | 0.83 | 3.64 | 0.91 | 3.43 | 0.7 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 2.19 | 4.79 | 2.6 | 4.27 | 2.08 | 4.02 | 1.83 | 2.84 | 0.65 | 2.19 | 4.79 | 2.6 | 4.27 | 2.08 | 4.02 | 1.83 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 3.32 | 4.23 | 0.91 | 4.1 | 0.78 | 3.32 | 0 | 4.03 | 0.71 | 1.8 | 3.27 | 1.47 | 2.76 | 0.96 | 1.33 | -0.47 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 5.16 | 4.89 | -0.27 | 5.07 | -0.09 | 4.66 | -0.5 | 4.72 | -0.44 | 4.33 | 4.52 | 0.19 | 4.6 | 0.27 | 3.65 | -0.68 |
| Tyler Pill | NYM | 3.75 | 4.65 | 0.9 | 4.34 | 0.59 | 3.29 | -0.46 | 6.75 | 3.00 | 3.75 | 4.66 | 0.91 | 4.34 | 0.59 | 3.29 | -0.46 |
| Tyson Ross | TEX | 3.18 | 4.93 | 1.75 | 4.53 | 1.35 | 2.95 | -0.23 | 1.63 | -1.55 | 3.18 | 4.96 | 1.78 | 4.53 | 1.35 | 2.95 | -0.23 |
Carlos Carrasco has a career low .252 BABIP, nearly 50 points below his career .299 rate. His ground ball rate is down a few points, but there really is no supporting evidence.
Jeff Samardzija does not have a good BABIP profile or strong defense, but I’d still call his BABIP artificially high when looking at the type of contact he’s generated (5.4 Hard-Soft%). I’d expect improvement in his line drive rate and his 64.9 LOB%, while a 16.5 HR/FB should move closer to career rates (11.5 HR/FB) in San Francisco.
Joe Biagini has just a 5.9 HR/FB, but also just a 50.9 LOB% in his eight starts.
BABIP & Statcast Chart (2017 LG AVG – .293 BABIP – 44.5 GB% – 20.3 LD% – 9.2 IFFB% – 86.6 Z-Contact%)
A few years back, both Dan Rosencheck and Steve Staude separately found that high Infield Fly Ball (IFFB) rates and low Zone Contact (Z-Contact) rates correlated well with lower BABIP for pitchers. I won’t pretend to know how much of the variation in BABIP can be explained by these factors, but since they seem to have some effect, here they are. See if you can use it to your advantage.
It’s presented as the difference between team and pitcher BABIP allowed because team defense can explain a lot of the variance from league average on its own. A pitcher with a much lower BABIP than his team allows is a red flag absent further supporting evidence, while a pitcher with a much higher BABIP than his team allows may have something to offer in the future, especially with the right indicators.
| Pitcher | Team | Team BABIP | Pitcher BABIP | Diff | GB% | Pitcher LD% | Pitcher IFFB% | Pitcher Zcontact | Exit Velocity | Barrels BBE | Barrels PA | BBE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Carrasco | CLE | 0.306 | 0.252 | -0.054 | 43.8% | 0.221 | 7.0% | 88.3% | 86.6 | 8.50% | 5.70% | 211 |
| David Holmberg | CHW | 0.283 | 0.169 | -0.114 | 45.6% | 0.127 | 21.2% | 89.6% | 87.3 | 7.60% | 5.70% | 79 |
| James Paxton | SEA | 0.283 | 0.307 | 0.024 | 42.1% | 0.23 | 9.4% | 81.1% | 86.3 | 3.30% | 2.10% | 153 |
| Jeff Hoffman | COL | 0.287 | 0.259 | -0.028 | 33.7% | 0.169 | 9.8% | 86.3% | 87.2 | 7.10% | 4.70% | 84 |
| Jeff Samardzija | SFO | 0.318 | 0.333 | 0.015 | 40.3% | 0.261 | 8.2% | 83.2% | 85.5 | 5.80% | 4.00% | 257 |
| Joe Biagini | TOR | 0.302 | 0.294 | -0.008 | 58.5% | 0.14 | 4.3% | 90.2% | 85.3 | 3.50% | 2.50% | 173 |
| Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 0.285 | 0.283 | -0.002 | 40.1% | 0.168 | 8.2% | 86.8% | 86.8 | 7.00% | 4.80% | 199 |
| Jose Berrios | MIN | 0.289 | 0.230 | -0.059 | 42.7% | 0.12 | 9.4% | 83.6% | 85.5 | 5.10% | 3.30% | 117 |
| Junior Guerra | MIL | 0.301 | 0.180 | -0.121 | 38.7% | 0.161 | 14.3% | 85.3% | 86.2 | 6.30% | 4.40% | 95 |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 0.311 | 0.299 | -0.012 | 34.4% | 0.217 | 8.4% | 85.7% | 89 | 9.00% | 6.10% | 244 |
| Kevin Gausman | BAL | 0.312 | 0.373 | 0.061 | 42.2% | 0.243 | 10.2% | 87.0% | 88.8 | 9.40% | 7.00% | 265 |
| Michael Wacha | STL | 0.293 | 0.331 | 0.038 | 45.3% | 0.221 | 5.1% | 84.1% | 84.6 | 7.00% | 4.80% | 186 |
| Mike Fiers | HOU | 0.288 | 0.271 | -0.017 | 49.1% | 0.167 | 6.8% | 85.6% | 86.2 | 8.20% | 5.80% | 220 |
| Nick Pivetta | PHI | 0.305 | 0.350 | 0.045 | 38.5% | 0.26 | 10.8% | 88.8% | 88.2 | 9.50% | 6.30% | 105 |
| Rich Hill | LOS | 0.282 | 0.303 | 0.021 | 39.3% | 0.146 | 14.6% | 81.5% | 83.9 | 7.40% | 4.50% | 94 |
| Ricky Nolasco | ANA | 0.288 | 0.302 | 0.014 | 39.3% | 0.194 | 6.9% | 86.1% | 89.6 | 11.50% | 8.50% | 252 |
| Sean Manaea | OAK | 0.294 | 0.253 | -0.041 | 48.2% | 0.159 | 3.3% | 81.9% | 88.7 | 5.20% | 3.20% | 172 |
| Sean Newcomb | ATL | 0.283 | 0.229 | -0.054 | 52.8% | 0.222 | 11.1% | 84.1% | 87.2 | 2.80% | 1.90% | 36 |
| Taijuan Walker | ARI | 0.291 | 0.304 | 0.013 | 49.1% | 0.189 | 11.1% | 83.7% | 87.7 | 5.80% | 4.10% | 172 |
| Trevor Williams | PIT | 0.304 | 0.283 | -0.021 | 42.7% | 0.205 | 17.5% | 89.4% | 86 | 5.80% | 4.40% | 173 |
| Tyler Pill | NYM | 0.319 | 0.357 | 0.038 | 48.7% | 0.333 | 0.0% | 90.0% | 83.2 | 4.80% | 3.60% | 42 |
| Tyson Ross | TEX | 0.284 | 0.143 | -0.141 | 42.9% | 0.214 | 0.0% | 95.7% |
Pitcher Notes & Summary
Here we rank pitchers by value tiers with their overall rank in parenthesis next to the name for the top five to ten. These are not hard and rigid rankings. Everything is fluid and can change depending on ever evolving situations throughout the day. This is the more opinionated part. If there are questions, it’ll help show you where my imaginary boundaries are drawn.
Value Tier One
Joe Biagini has begun to show more flaws as he’s exposed to the league in a starting role. It’s shown itself in fewer swinging strikes and a few less ground balls over his last two starts. Bump him down on FanDuel a tier or two for nearly $2K more, but the body of work in a starting role is still plenty strong enough for his $5.5K cost on DraftKings. Hopefully, a return to a stronger ground ball rate neutralizes the effects of a tough park.
Value Tier Two
Carlos Carrasco (1) has been more consistently good than great. He’s one of the two most expensive pitchers today and faces a Baltimore offense that’s been coming on lately. They are almost entirely RH at this point, but it’s a group of RHBs that hits RHP well. That may not be the case with him though.
Jeff Samardzija (2) has been good outside of Coors this year with peripherals that are elite. He’s in another tough park tonight against an offense that doesn’t strike out much, but that may be somewhat cancelled out by their lack of power and a reasonable cost around $9K.
Value Tier Three
James Paxton was supposed to be our top pitcher, but I can’t be entirely confident that he’s healthy. Velocity has been dipping and control has been waning. He walked just six batters over his first five starts and 14 over his last five with all three of his HRs over his last three games. If he is healthy and this is just some mechanical thing that’s corrected, then he’s potentially the best value on the board tonight. The uncertainty makes this a much more difficult slate.
Value Tier Four – These guys seem basically in line with their price tag. They are either barely usable and shouldn’t hurt you too much, but might not help you much either or have such a wide range of outcomes that you can’t see much benefit beyond the risk.
Jordan Montgomery may not be able to sustain his 9.4 HR/FB, though it’s been a bit higher at home, but he’s been a quality pitcher and finds himself in a decent spot even if strikeouts may be a bit tougher to come by tonight.
You can find me on twitter @FreelanceBBall for any questions, comments, or insults.
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