Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, April 8th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-04-09 00:53:57

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Severino	NYY	DET	62.1	2.89	3.84	1.20		22.0%	8.6%	1.30	1.69
Zimmermann	DET	NYY	401.1	3.16	3.49	1.14	52.6%	21.2%	4.2%	0.83	1.14
Eickhoff	PHI	NYM	51	2.65	3.56	1.04		24.1%	6.4%	0.88	0.95
Degrom	NYM	PHI	331.1	2.61	3.07	1.05	50.0%	26.5%	6.2%	0.62	1.35
Salazar	CLE	CWS	295	3.75	3.37	1.22	12.5%	25.6%	7.2%	1.10	1.03
Danks	CWS	CLE	371.1	4.73	4.64	1.43	50.0%	15.6%	8.0%	1.19	1.02
Rea	SDP	COL	31.2	4.26	4.13	1.26		19.6%	8.3%	0.57	1.54
Lyles	COL	SDP	175.2	4.56	4.26	1.40	58.3%	15.8%	8.6%	0.72	2.01
Archer	TBR	BAL	406.2	3.28	3.42	1.20	55.0%	25.2%	8.2%	0.69	1.43
Tillman	BAL	TBR	380.1	4.09	4.46	1.30	42.9%	16.8%	8.1%	0.97	1.12
Kelly	BOS	TOR	230.2	4.57	4.27	1.40	40.0%	17.6%	9.1%	0.90	1.83
Stroman	TOR	BOS	157.2	3.31	3.21	1.14	66.7%	20.3%	5.3%	0.51	2.13
Liriano	PIT	CIN	349	3.38	3.48	1.25	12.5%	26.0%	10.3%	0.72	1.98
Simon	CIN	PIT	383.1	4.23	4.52	1.32	63.2%	14.9%	7.6%	1.08	1.40
Garcia	STL	ATL	173.1	2.86	3.25	1.05	28.6%	19.8%	5.4%	0.62	2.59
Wisler	ATL	STL	109	4.71	4.98	1.46		15.1%	8.4%	1.32	0.78
Feldman	HOU	MIL	288.2	3.80	4.37	1.31	47.1%	13.8%	6.3%	0.90	1.62
Anderson	MIL	HOU	267	4.18	4.05	1.33	40.0%	19.2%	7.1%	1.15	1.18
Santana	MIN	KCR	304	3.97	3.91	1.30	38.9%	20.5%	7.8%	0.83	1.22
Ventura	KCR	MIN	346.1	3.61	3.79	1.30	44.4%	21.4%	8.6%	0.73	1.70
Hammel	CHC	ARI	347	3.61	3.47	1.14	47.4%	23.2%	5.9%	1.19	1.03
Ray	ARI	CHC	156.1	4.38	4.19	1.43	33.3%	20.3%	8.8%	0.81	1.15
Griffin	TEX	LAA
Shoemaker	LAA	TEX	271.1	3.75	3.59	1.16	44.4%	21.6%	5.3%	1.26	0.98
Surkamp	OAK	SEA	27.2	5.53	4.12	1.45		19.5%	11.4%	1.63	1.07
Walker	SEA	OAK	207.2	4.20	3.73	1.21		22.1%	6.7%	1.17	1.09
Stripling	LAD	SFG
Cain	SFG	LAD	151	4.83	4.39	1.35	40.0%	17.2%	8.1%	1.49	1.09

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

It’s actually a pretty powerful slate, but the top guys carry enough caveats that I wouldn’t feel comfortable putting my whole stack on any one arm. It’s best to diversify on a day like today – with so many high-profile arms facing tough opponents, some are bound to dominate and some are bound to get nailed.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Jacob deGrom NYM (vs. PHI) – deGrom should be an all-in candidate, what with his sparkling performance and the soft opponent, but there a couple of factors that keep him out of the Forbidden Zone. For starters, his inability to hit max velocity this spring adds a dose of concern, though caveats apply when talking about spring training as he may been holding back until the regular season. The lesser heat didn’t hurt his pitching line, with a 1.62 ERA over 16 spring innings, including 15 strikeouts and just two walks. Those numbers don’t mean much, but they soften the concern of his velo drop. The other thing keeping deGrom off the All-in radar is the fact that his wife is about to give birth to their first child, a factor which could pull the right-hander off of today’s slate.

Chris Archer TB (at BAL) – Archer has All-in upside, but he is in a tough venue against a powerful lineup, knocking him from the top perch. His strikeout potential makes him a worthy investment, however, as the Orioles are full of all-or-nothing sluggers and Archer has a high probability of cracking double digits on his K count. Archer is definitely worth a GPP play, and since a strikeout is worth about as much as an earned run on most DFS sites, Archer can go ahead and give up a handful of earnies so long as he hauls in a pile of strikeouts.

Danny Salazar CLE (at CHW) – He’s the same pitcher that he was yesterday, facing an easier offense one day later after his start against the Red Sox was canceled, and yet Salazar gets bumped down a rung on the pitcher ladder due to the other options available on today’s slate. He’s still very appealing for all of the reasons mentioned yesterday, and though he doesn’t stand out the way that he did on Thursday, Salazar might be an even better play given the opponent. He will have to survive the hitter-friendly venue, but the presence of other top-end pitcher options will hopefully spread his ownership.

Francisco Liriano PIT (at CIN) – To the surprise of nobody, Liriano’s first outing of the season was one that was filled with walks and strikeouts. He faced 26 batters in 5.1 innings, punching out 10 yet giving away five free passes in typical Liriano fashion. He has kept the hits and homers down to minimum the last few years, allowing the southpaw to survive with a high walk rate that can creep into the 4.0 BB/9 territory. The issue is that the inefficient pitch counts lead to early exits, such that he only pitched more than 7.0 innings in four of his 31 starts in 2015.

Yordano Ventura KC (vs. MIN) – Ventura discovered a new strikeout level in the final month of last season, striking out exactly 11 batters in three of his final eight turns of the regular season. He continued to rack up the strikeouts during the postseason, and Ventura could be ready to ascend to the next tier of pitchers. The young Twins have a few hitters that are strikeout-prone, and there could be a high tallies of Ks in Ventura’s near future.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Severino			0.303	3.94	0.291	0.803	0.265	4.37	0.229	93.18	22.0%
Zimmermann	0.290	2.92	0.270	2.86	0.228	0.694	0.302	3.22	0.251	92.72	21.2%
Eickhoff			0.203	1.47	0.235	0.653	0.257	3.25	0.211	92.38	24.1%
Degrom	0.289	2.34	0.235	2.43	0.207	0.567	0.283	2.69	0.216	100.23	26.5%
Salazar	0.309	3.14	0.305	3.73	0.256	0.679	0.303	3.58	0.241	98.34	25.6%
Danks	0.317	4.11	0.354	4.77	0.226	0.638	0.298	4.63	0.27	0.00	15.6%
Rea			0.331	3.86	0.284	0.772	0.290	3.45	0.24	87.50	19.6%
Lyles	0.372	3.39	0.295	5.14	0.244	0.694	0.305	4.10	0.265	0.00	15.8%
Archer	0.283	2.67	0.292	3.59	0.281	0.835	0.296	3.13	0.228	100.14	25.2%
Tillman	0.299	3.04	0.325	5.14	0.235	0.684	0.279	4.21	0.248	97.75	16.8%
Kelly	0.318	3.60	0.342	5.56	0.235	0.718	0.301	4.26	0.26	0.00	17.6%
Stroman	0.287	3.31	0.278	3.84	0.257	0.714	0.295	2.96	0.242	81.83	20.3%
Liriano	0.331	4.20	0.285	3.29	0.224	0.668	0.287	3.37	0.219	94.95	26.0%
Simon	0.313	3.92	0.307	4.08	0.234	0.642	0.279	4.55	0.256	96.40	14.9%
Garcia			0.256	2.44	0.238	0.682	0.268	3.21	0.225	92.15	19.8%
Wisler			0.284	4.48	0.279	0.762	0.298	4.93	0.274	0.00	15.1%
Feldman	0.314	2.78	0.336	4.82	0.232	0.650	0.291	4.19	0.266	100.74	13.8%
Anderson	0.314	3.76	0.341	4.48	0.244	0.747	0.306	4.17	0.265	90.71	19.2%
Santana	0.332	4.02	0.296	3.39	0.311	0.817	0.306	3.67	0.254	97.19	20.5%
Ventura	0.288	2.68	0.306	3.49	0.231	0.623	0.297	3.59	0.241	95.53	21.4%
Hammel	0.305	3.09	0.303	4.11	0.256	0.693	0.280	3.80	0.235	90.93	23.2%
Ray			0.346	4.63	0.287	0.766	0.325	3.84	0.268	87.63	20.3%
Griffin					0.227	0.624
Shoemaker	0.308	3.34	0.305	3.31	0.193	0.559	0.286	3.93	0.246	80.58	21.6%
Surkamp	0.289	3.14	0.330	6.00	0.251	0.735	0.273	5.59	0.245	0.00	19.5%
Walker	0.333	2.86	0.299	4.58	0.279	0.767	0.289	4.00	0.244	87.97	22.1%
Stripling					0.245	0.673
Cain	0.329	4.29	0.330	4.17	0.275	0.876	0.282	4.97	0.259	0.00	17.2%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Marcus Stroman TOR (vs. BOS) – Ventura and Stroman have similar profiles, as hard-throwing right-handers whose K rates don’t match the readings on the radar gun, and also as pitchers who are much shorter than the modern pitcher prototype. Stroman is facing the much tougher opponent today, lining up against a Boston offense that make just about anyone look bad on a given day. Stroman lives off of weak contact, with a two-seam fastball that hums along in the mid-90s with ridiculous arm-side movement. If the sinker is on point, then the Red Sox will have a tough time squaring up the right-hander.

Jordan Zimmermann DET (vs. NYY) – The difference between the Zimmermann of 2015 and that of four seasons boiled down to home runs; he allowed 0.7 HR/9 from 2011-14, but then coughed up 1.1 HR/9 last season. He allowed 24 homers on the season, and 19 of those came after the calendar flipped to July as he only surrendered five home runs in his first 16 starts of the year. He now moves to one of the toughest ballparks on home runs, increasing the odds that his homer rate comes back to earth and his other ratios come down with it. He’s a weak-contact maven with low rates of walks and strikeouts, and his excellent command allows Zimmermann to exploit batter weaknesses.

Taijuan Walker SEA (vs. OAK) – Walker was under mounds of hype when he took the mound in Oakland for his first start of the 2015 season, coming off a solid 2014 campaign and an excellent spring. The A’s went ahead and pummeled Walker for nine earned runs in 3.1 innings of work, the kind of stat-shattering outing that takes several weeks for recovery. He endured a rocky season full of ups and downs, but the stuff remained intact and he came out the other side as a better pitcher. Many of his issues from a year ago were tied to mechanics, with a late arm that resulted in everything being up and to the arm-side for Walker, but he corrected the problem by midseason and is now ready to spearhead the role of no. 2 in the Seattle rotation.

Jaime Garcia STL (at ATL) – Garcia ranks this high on the list purely based on his opponent, facing an Atlanta lineup whose only intimidating hitter has a large platoon split that makes him vulnerable to southpaws (a difference of 155 points of OPS for Freddie Freeman in his career). He lacks upside in the strikeout category and his weak durability makes it difficult to count on innings from Garcia when looking at the season as a whole, but he has been effective when on the mound, and he went six or more innings in 17 of his 20 starts last season.

Luis Severino NYY (at DET) – Severino possesses palpable upside, and the young right-hander is being counted on to play a major role in a pinstriped rotation that is ravaged by injury risks. He has the potential to post a big K count, but the Detroit offense remains an imposing threat due to the strength of the top half of the lineup. Roster Severino with extreme caution.

Jerad Eickhoff PHI (at NYM)

Jason Hammel CHC (at ARI)

Chris Tillman BAL (vs. TB)

Robbie Ray ARI (vs. CHC)

Joe Kelly BOS (at TOR) – My, what a difference a day makes. Pitching against Cleveland with a weak pool of pitchers on yesterday’s slate, I put Kelly at the top of the Call category, but one day later he is facing the best offense in the game, thus killing his desirability among a much more impressive pool of pitchers.

Matt Cain SF (vs. LAD)

Ervin Santana MIN (at KC)

Matt Shoemaker LAA (vs. TEX)

Scott Feldman HOU (at MIL)

Chase Anderson MIL (vs. HOU)

A.J. Griffin TEX (at LAA)

Matt Wisler ATL (vs. STL)