Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Friday, August 12th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-08-13 01:59:45

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Wainwright	STL	CHC	171	3.89	4.08	1.27	84.2%	18.6%	5.8%	0.53	1.59
Arrieta	CHC	STL	371.1	2.08	3.11	0.93	50.0%	26.3%	6.8%	0.44	2.22
Foltynewicz	ATL	WAS	165	5.07	4.28	1.47		19.6%	7.1%	1.64	0.90
Strasburg	WAS	ATL	265.2	3.12	2.93	1.06	52.4%	30.3%	6.1%	0.91	1.12
Gray	COL	PHI	159	4.58	3.75	1.30		24.2%	7.7%	1.02	1.35
Thompson	PHI	COL
Archer	TBR	NYY	355.2	3.64	3.30	1.21	55.0%	28.3%	8.2%	1.04	1.36
Sabathia	NYY	TBR	285.2	4.51	4.34	1.41	25.0%	18.3%	7.8%	1.29	1.39
Liriano	TOR	HOU	306.1	4.14	3.89	1.36	12.5%	24.6%	10.7%	1.03	1.84
Corbin	ARI	BOS	215.2	4.67	4.16	1.47		19.0%	7.8%	1.21	1.78
Price	BOS	ARI	376	3.23	3.37	1.16	52.4%	24.9%	5.4%	0.84	1.28
Rodon	CWS	MIA	243.2	4.06	4.11	1.47		22.8%	10.0%	1.03	1.40
Cashner	MIA	CWS	275.1	4.54	4.14	1.42	75.0%	20.0%	8.1%	1.11	1.49
Skaggs	LAA	CLE	17.2	2.04	3.98	1.25	37.5%	23.0%	8.1%	1.02	1.29
Carrasco	CLE	LAA	286	3.46	3.11	1.08		27.3%	6.4%	1.07	1.60
Clemens	SDP	NYM	27.1	4.61	5.19	1.46		17.2%	11.5%	2.96	0.86
Verrett	NYM	SDP	130.2	4.27	4.64	1.30		17.1%	9.5%	1.17	1.29
Sanchez	DET	TEX	265.2	5.35	4.21	1.39	41.2%	20.7%	8.2%	1.63	0.99
Darvish	TEX	DET	45.1	2.78	2.70	1.06	55.6%	34.1%	6.6%	1.19	1.21
Bailey	CIN	MIL	20	6.30	4.78	1.80	31.6%	14.0%	8.6%	1.35	1.84
Nelson	MIL	CIN	309.1	4.07	4.43	1.37		18.6%	9.5%	0.99	1.69
Ventura	KCR	MIN	289.1	4.32	4.19	1.33	44.4%	20.0%	9.0%	0.96	1.73
Gibson	MIN	KCR	281.2	4.15	4.25	1.35	52.6%	17.2%	7.9%	0.96	1.96
Miranda	SEA	OAK
Manaea	OAK	SEA	98.1	4.58	4.13	1.31		19.9%	6.0%	1.46	1.13
Nova	PIT	LAD	198.1	4.95	4.25	1.36	25.0%	16.7%	6.8%	1.54	1.72
Stripling	LAD	PIT	59.1	3.79	4.27	1.26		17.7%	8.4%	0.46	2.09
Bundy	BAL	SFG	65	3.05	3.62	1.25		24.1%	6.7%	1.25	0.81
Cain	SFG	BAL	135.2	5.44	4.83	1.50	40.0%	15.9%	7.8%	1.66	0.92

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Stephen Strasburg WAS (vs. ATL) – Stras has had two rough turns in his last four starts, including his most recent outing in which the right-hander allowed eight hits and four runs in just 4.2 innings against the Giants. He still struck out eight hitters, as strikeouts have been his saving grace even when the scoreboard features crooked numbers, and the six-run start of four games ago was similar in that it featured 10 Ks over 6.0 innings of work. Between those run-filled, K-concentrated starts, Stras threw 1.0 innings with one run and just six hits allowed, including 13 strikeouts and four walks over that stretch. He’s arguably the best pitcher on the board based purely on merit and is facing the weakest offense in baseball, with enough stuff to overcome the low-strikeout offense of the Braves and pile up a large K count.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Yu Darvish TEX (vs. DET) – The Rangers have kept Darvish on a leash shorter than 95 pitches in every start this season, yet he has responded by going progressively deeper into ballgames thanks to improved efficiency. He has gone at least 6.0 innings in each of his last four starts, with a 2.49 ERA and an absolutely ridiculous 34:2 K:BB in 25.1 innings. He has also given up five home runs over that stretch, each of which being solo, so the lack of walks may have saved him from more runs being put on the scoreboard. Darvish’s last start was his best yet, blanking the Astros over 7.0 frames with no walks and eight strikeouts added to his statsheet. One of these days, the Rangers might just loosen the reigns and let Darvish go 100-plus pitches, but he is worth the price tag even if that day never comes.

Chris Archer (at NYY) – Don’t look now, but Chris Archer has strung together an impressive run of starts. The dominoes kicked off with an 11-K start at Coors Field, a game that nobody saw coming, but those who jumped on the Archer wave early were rewarded with three starts of a composite 2.21 ERA with a 21:4 K:BB in 20.1 innings. He might be able to save his season line with an excellent stretch run, and he gets to face a depleted version of the offense that he shut down for one earned run over 8.0 innings back in late May, the only time that Archer has squared off against the division rivals this season.

Jon Gray COL (at PHI) – Gray is riding the ultimate rollercoaster, with the stuff to succeed at any altitude but the hurdle of playing half his games at a place where even good pitching can be thwarted by the pinball-like effects of balls in play. For example, take his most recent run: Gray had given up two or fewer runs in five consecutive starts, had gone 7.0 innings deep in three of those games and had only given up one homer across the whole stretch (two of those games were at Coors Field), and then he coughs up eight runs on ten hits in 3.2 innings at home against the Marlins. He did this once before, giving up nine runs over 3.1 innings to the Cardinals back in May, but in that game he didn’t have the excuse of mile-high misfortune. He followed up that nine-run disaster with a quality start against the Red Sox in Fenway, so don’t let the hiccup distract from Gray’s upside today against a weak Philadelphia lineup.

Carlos Carrasco CLE (vs. LAA) – Over his last three turns in the rotation, Carrasco has sandwiched baseline quality starts around the worst start of his season, an eight-run disaster at the hands of the Twins. He did strike out nine Yankees in his last start, but Carrasco’s numbers have been largely unimpressive in each game since his 14-K outing against the Blue Jays, a game that stands out like a sore thumb on his game log. He will be a popular choice on DraftKings today due to the low price tag ($6900) and high perceived upside, but the Angels are the toughest team in baseball to strike out and the right-hander is on a shaky run of performance. There is a chance of implosion, but his low salary makes Carrasco well worth the risk.

Dylan Bundy BAL (at SF) – Bundy was in a bit of a funk while pitching out of the bullpen for the first half of the season, but he was moved to the rotation to start the second half, and though his first start was forgettable (three homers allowed in 3.1 innings at Tampa) he has since been extremely effective, with a 1.90 ERA in four starts including a 29:3 K:BB ratio in 23.2 innings pitched. The pitch count has been modest, hovering right around 90 pitches in each turn, but Bundy has also proved that it’s all he needs to post a quality start with a K or more per inning. He finishes his delivery like a statue, posing for photographs while standing on one leg, and at the rate he’s going those photographs might be worth something one day. For now, he makes for a very intriguing option who might still be flying under the radar despite rising to a formidable presence in the Orioles’ rotation. I like the matchup and I love the price ($7400 on DraftKings).

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Wainwright	0.331	4.71	0.288	3.32	0.248	0.739	0.320	3.14	0.267	0.01	18.6%
Arrieta	0.225	1.72	0.240	2.42	0.261	0.759	0.245	2.59	0.185	0.00	26.3%
Foltynewicz	0.387	5.79	0.337	4.50	0.248	0.723	0.324	4.87	0.285	0.00	19.6%
Strasburg	0.249	2.52	0.292	3.74	0.252	0.681	0.291	2.81	0.216	0.01	30.3%
Gray	0.302	3.71	0.336	5.42	0.242	0.686	0.318	3.74	0.253	0.01	24.2%
Thompson					0.271	0.779
Archer	0.285	3.80	0.295	3.48	0.247	0.724	0.298	3.32	0.227	0.00	28.3%
Sabathia	0.269	3.99	0.347	4.63	0.259	0.758	0.306	4.57	0.27	0.00	18.3%
Musgrove					0.257	0.777	0.231	0.93	0.15	0.17	34.2%
Liriano	0.297	3.76	0.316	4.25	0.243	0.742	0.299	3.99	0.237	0.00	24.6%
Corbin	0.322	3.78	0.355	4.93	0.274	0.770	0.326	4.33	0.28	0.00	19.0%
Price	0.302	2.88	0.286	3.35	0.267	0.769	0.308	3.04	0.243	0.00	24.9%
Rodon	0.244	2.83	0.360	4.50	0.274	0.740	0.329	4.08	0.265	0.01	22.8%
Cashner	0.377	5.36	0.308	3.87	0.250	0.702	0.318	4.20	0.27	0.00	20.0%
Skaggs			0.305	2.19	0.267	0.737	0.286	3.70	0.235	0.08	23.0%
Carrasco	0.293	3.20	0.281	3.68	0.257	0.721	0.283	3.35	0.223	0.01	27.3%
Clemens	0.292	1.50	0.442	7.04	0.240	0.707	0.224	7.63	0.245	0.02	17.2%
Verrett	0.316	4.31	0.331	4.23	0.239	0.686	0.265	4.72	0.24	0.00	17.1%
Sanchez	0.318	4.66	0.370	6.14	0.259	0.743	0.301	4.79	0.265	0.00	20.7%
Darvish	0.292	3.68	0.262	1.93	0.269	0.746	0.294	2.91	0.212	0.04	34.1%
Bailey			0.312	5.14	0.251	0.709	0.373	5.28	0.337	0.00	14.0%
Nelson	0.364	5.27	0.287	3.13	0.248	0.708	0.290	4.44	0.249	0.00	18.6%
Ventura	0.323	5.20	0.300	3.46	0.248	0.717	0.291	4.11	0.246	0.00	20.0%
Gibson	0.329	4.64	0.302	3.66	0.264	0.719	0.296	4.16	0.26	0.00	17.2%
Miranda					0.255	0.716
Manaea	0.227	2.14	0.357	5.24	0.258	0.736	0.302	4.38	0.267	0.01	19.9%
Nova	0.371	5.04	0.325	4.86	0.249	0.738	0.291	4.99	0.269	0.00	16.7%
Stripling	0.248	1.26	0.328	6.16	0.260	0.726	0.283	3.42	0.238	0.01	17.7%
Bundy	0.279	2.23	0.337	4.08	0.263	0.734	0.309	3.90	0.253	0.01	24.1%
Cain	0.395	6.10	0.351	4.93	0.261	0.770	0.308	5.35	0.286	0.00	15.9%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

David Price BOS (vs. ARI) – His strike zone peripherals line up with previous years, including a 24.2-percent K rate that is just a hair above his career rate of 23.5 percent, and a walk rate of 5.5 percent that is lower than his career rate (6.2%) and just a smidge higher than last season’s frequency of 5.3 percent. The trouble has been on contact, as Price has given up career-high rates of hits and homers allowed on a per-inning basis. He had a three-game string of 10-K starts a month ago, but in his five starts since Price has been tagged for a 4.31 ERA and 42 hits in 31.1 innings, with an eight-inning, scoreless start amidst the chaos being the only bright spot in an otherwise-bleak stretch of starts.

Carlos Rodon CHW (at MIA) – Rodon is coming off a clean outing against the Orioles, giving up two runs (one earned) over six frames, striking out seven batters against two walks. It ended a three-start streak of four or more runs allowed, with a chunk of time in-between that was missed due to his wrist injury. Rodon has greatly quieted the walks this season, going from the 11.7-percent rate of last season to his 7.8-percent walk rate this year. Meanwhile, his K rate of 22.7 percent is a sneeze away from the 22.9 percent of last season, but he’s given up twice the frequency of home runs to bloat his ERA to the mid-4.00’s.

Joe Musgrove HOU (at TOR) – The large right-hander has put up some pretty incredible numbers through six seasons in the minor leagues. Musgrove has walked just 41 batters across 337.1 innings in the minors (1.1 BB/9), and while such exemplary control often comes paired with low strikeout rates, Musgrove has struck out nearly a batter per inning while in the minors, with 320 total Ks (8.5 K/9). He’s also limited the homers and maintained a 3.23 ERA through his minor-league career, making Musgrove one of the most intriguing players to never get much pub. He faces a Toronto offense that is against lacking Jose Bautista, making the rostering of Musgrove an even more intriguing option.

Tyler Skaggs LAA (at CLE) – One start he blanks Boston with eight strikeouts over 5.1 frames, and the next sees four runs on nine hits and three walks at Seattle. The walks have increased by solo increments over his first three starts and the innings have been shrinking despite a pitch count that has been swelling. His delivery looks better than it did before his surgery, and despite the speed bump in his road to recovery, Skaggs’ upside has increased due to his ability to make adjustments.

Francisco Liriano TOR (vs. HOU)

Jimmy Nelson MIL (vs. CIN)

Yordano Ventura KC (at MIN)

Sean Manaea OAK (vs. SEA)

Ross Stripling LAD (vs. PIT)

Ivan Nova PIT (at LAD)

Andrew Cashner MIA (vs. CHW)

Homer Bailey CIN (at MIL)

CC Sabathia NYY (vs. TB)

Editor’s Note: Joe Wieland will start for the Mariners on Friday.

Ariel Miranda SEA (at OAK)

Kyle Gibson MIN (vs. KC)