Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Monday, September 28th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-09-30 14:08:09

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Finnegan	CIN	WAS	44	3.27	3.16	1.14		25.8%	10.1%	1.43	2.42
Scherzer	WAS	CIN	432	3.06	2.87	1.07	60.0%	28.7%	5.4%	0.94	0.82
Rodriguez	BOS	NYY	115.2	3.97	4.20	1.29		18.8%	7.3%	1.01	1.29
Nova	NYY	BOS	102	5.56	4.63	1.47	25.0%	14.1%	7.5%	1.41	1.53
Lynn	STL	PIT	369	2.93	3.91	1.31	60.0%	21.6%	8.6%	0.63	1.24
Happ	PIT	STL	318	4.05	3.91	1.33	30.8%	20.2%	6.9%	1.08	1.11
Estrada	TOR	BAL	317.2	3.71	4.32	1.14	27.8%	19.0%	7.6%	1.42	0.64
Tillman	BAL	TOR	367.2	4.14	4.45	1.30	42.9%	16.8%	8.0%	0.98	1.12
Hughes	MIN	CLE	364	3.91	3.69	1.20	45.0%	18.6%	2.1%	1.11	0.89
Kluber	CLE	MIN	443.2	2.96	2.78	1.08	57.1%	28.0%	5.1%	0.71	1.38
Verlander	DET	TEX	327.1	4.15	4.13	1.28	35.0%	18.7%	6.8%	0.82	0.89
Lewis	TEX	DET	366.1	4.74	4.35	1.35	11.8%	16.9%	5.6%	1.23	0.76
Ventura	KCR	CHC	332.1	3.74	3.84	1.32	44.4%	20.9%	8.6%	0.76	1.69
Hendricks	CHC	KCR	248.1	3.66	3.67	1.17		19.3%	5.5%	0.76	1.73
Doubront	OAK	LAA	148	5.53	4.61	1.54	20.0%	15.4%	8.3%	1.28	1.13
Santiago	LAA	OAK	298.1	3.59	4.46	1.30	16.7%	20.5%	9.5%	1.27	0.58
McCullers	HOU	SEA	114.2	3.22	3.61	1.18		24.5%	8.3%	0.63	1.46
Elias	SEA	HOU	271	3.89	4.05	1.29	26.3%	20.5%	9.0%	0.93	1.30
Greinke	LAD	SFG	410	2.17	3.09	1.00	50.0%	24.4%	4.9%	0.70	1.55
Peavy	SFG	LAD	301.1	3.76	4.17	1.24	42.1%	18.3%	6.9%	1.02	0.90

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Zack Greinke LAD (at SF) – Greinke skipped his last start due to a sore calf, but he is reportedly good to go for tonight’s tilt against the rival Giants. He was once thought to have the Cy Young Award on lockdown, and with his ERA currently at an astonishingly low 1.65 he has done nothing to hurt his cause, though the insane runs of teammate Clayton Kershaw and especially the Cubs’ Jake Arrieta make this a grudge match with one week to go. Greinke has had a sub-2.00 ERA in five of six months this season, including his 1.91 mark for September, with a consistency of run prevention that more than makes up for his solid-yet-unspectacular strikeout rate of 23.5 percent.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Corey Kluber CLE (vs. MIN) – Kluber was ousted quickly from his last start, a short 76-pitch outing against the Twins that included four earned runs without completing the fourth inning. It’s the second truncated outing in a row for the right-hander, who had thrown just 61 pitches in his previous start after sitting out for a couple of turns in order to rest a hamstring injury. A busted hammy can really throw a wrench into a pitcher’s stride, particularly one who typically generates strong momentum (I gave Kluber’s momentum a scouting grade of 65 on the 20-80 scale in the 2015 Starting Pitcher Guide), and his results would seem to bear that out. In his last 27.3 innings Kluber has a 4.94 ERA with eight homers allowed, but the peripherals have still been excellent, with 37 strikeouts against six walks. Roster with caution, but he might be a good contrarian play.

Lance McCullers HOU (at SEA) – For those scoring at home, that’s six consecutive quality starts that McCullers has strung together since his Texas implosion of August 3rd (a game that is responsible for a 0.46-run dent to his ERA). Over that stretch he has struck out 37 batters against 11 walks in 38.0 innings, but he brings a volatility to his K’s on a game-to-game basis that can either sink or float a DFS roster. Consider that McCullers has had four games out of his last 11 that included eight or more strikeouts, but four others in which he whiffed three or fewer batters.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Finnegan	0.340	3.65	0.281	3.13	0.262	0.751	0.236	4.42	0.201	28.04	25.8%
Scherzer	0.301	3.38	0.262	2.68	0.251	0.715	0.297	2.90	0.225	105.86	28.7%
Rodriguez	0.359	5.40	0.292	3.54	0.257	0.754	0.287	4.04	0.248	95.60	18.8%
Nova	0.361	4.92	0.356	6.24	0.265	0.737	0.302	5.16	0.282	87.37	14.1%
Lynn	0.331	3.66	0.279	2.38	0.264	0.729	0.302	3.42	0.242	102.06	21.6%
Happ	0.337	3.77	0.322	4.13	0.233	0.669	0.309	3.89	0.263	89.93	20.2%
Estrada	0.293	3.43	0.317	4.03	0.253	0.746	0.239	4.62	0.221	74.20	19.0%
Tillman	0.303	3.13	0.325	5.22	0.263	0.782	0.279	4.22	0.248	97.57	16.8%
Hughes	0.295	3.40	0.342	4.50	0.252	0.720	0.315	3.53	0.276	91.19	18.6%
Kluber	0.311	3.26	0.242	2.65	0.244	0.699	0.308	2.63	0.23	102.56	28.0%
Verlander	0.290	3.20	0.343	5.44	0.261	0.743	0.299	3.69	0.255	106.62	18.7%
Lewis	0.344	4.56	0.329	4.96	0.267	0.732	0.308	4.33	0.276	96.75	16.9%
Ventura	0.307	3.86	0.310	3.58	0.246	0.730	0.299	3.68	0.245	95.53	20.9%
Hendricks	0.324	3.49	0.273	3.80	0.269	0.743	0.292	3.48	0.247	87.91	19.3%
Doubront	0.338	4.97	0.365	5.76	0.235	0.669	0.315	4.78	0.285	72.03	15.4%
Santiago	0.279	2.00	0.324	4.14	0.252	0.705	0.269	4.55	0.234	86.20	20.5%
McCullers	0.258	3.10	0.314	3.34	0.242	0.721	0.289	3.18	0.224	95.45	24.5%
Elias	0.291	3.54	0.321	3.99	0.247	0.746	0.288	4.10	0.241	88.82	20.5%
Greinke	0.260	1.92	0.257	2.38	0.267	0.742	0.271	2.87	0.217	100.77	24.4%
Peavy	0.321	4.23	0.316	3.32	0.247	0.739	0.284	4.04	0.248	97.76	18.3%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Lance Lynn STL (at PIT) – Lynn’s season was on the verge of derailing when he made his last start, but he was able to get back on track with six shutout innings against the Reds, needing just 89 pitches to get the 18 outs. He actually hasn’t thrown 90 pitches in a ballgame since August, as ineffectiveness has resulted in quick hooks. The Cardinals have pitching depth but Lynn is a veteran cog in an otherwise green starting rotation, and this week’s series against the Pirates could very well be a preview of a playoff series yet to come. The last time that he faced the Pirates, back on August 13, the Pirates handed Lynn a nightmare outing of seven runs in the first inning and knocked the right-hander out of the game with only two outs on the board.

Yordano Ventura KC (at CHC) – Ventura appeared to be figuring things out as August turned to September, with a five-start run that included a 1.13 ERA and 43 strikeouts in 32.0 innings pitched, but he has jumped the tracks again over his last four turns: a 5.32 ERA, 30 hits and 11 walks (but 21 strikeouts) in 22.0 innings of work. The Cubs are the perfect club to continue that string, as a club that has clout (their 167 homers are fifth in the NL) but which comes up empty with alarming frequency – the Cubs’ 24.4-percent strikeout rate leads the majors by 1.5 percentage points.

J.A. Happ PIT (vs. STL) – Happ’s left-handedness is his greatest advantage against a Cardinals club that has hit for just a .294 wOBA and 669 OPS against southpaws this season. Happ is just the latest in a growing line of pitchers that have gone to Pittsburgh, worked with pitching coach Ray Searage, and suddenly experienced a late-career renaissance of performance; as a Pirate, Happ has a 2.28 ERA in nine starts, with an astounding 58 strikeouts against ten walks in 51.3 frames. The 32-year old has struck out eight or more batters in each of four consecutive turns, including a shutout performance ove seven innings against St. Louis at the start of September.

Justin Verlander DET (at TEX) – When all is said and done, 2015 will be looked at as a consolidation season for Verlander, in which he came to terms with the diminished stuff that comes with Father Time, honed the pitch command that once paved the way for his greatness, and survived an injury scare to an arm that has logged more than 2000 innings at the big-league level. He faces a Rangers ballclub that has been unstoppable lately, with a .385 wOBA and 907 OPS over the last seven days.

Hector Santiago LAA (vs. OAK) – The southpaw was having the greatest season of his career, snagging an All-Star selection and coming out of the break with a 2.33 ERA, but the second half has been rough sailing for Santiago. He has only struck out more than four batters twice in his last 12 starts, and the “high strikeout games” involved just five and seven whiffs, respectively. He has 45 strikeouts and 33 walks over his last 57.7 innings of work, netting a 5.77 ERA along the way. There is a wide gulf in rosterability between the player above him on this list and everyone who lies below the Santiago line.

Phil Hughes MIN (at CLE) – The last time that Hughes went as many as six full frames was back in July, as the Twins have limited his exposure in order to save their necks from whiplash, as he has allowed 29 homers in just 154.3 innings this year. He actually shut down the Indians for five innings in his last start, scattering four hits, walking none (naturally), and punching out a four-pack of Cleveland batters. Whether or not he can repeat the trick is another story altogether.

Roenis Elias SEA (vs. HOU)

Jake Peavy SF (vs. LAD)

Marco Estrada TOR (at BAL)

Kyle Hendricks CHC (vs. KC)

Ivan Nova NYY (vs. BOS)

Eduardo Rodriguez BOS (at NYY)