Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, October 3rd

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2015-10-04 19:08:54

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Ventura	KCR	MIN	339.1	3.66	3.82	1.30	44.4%	21.0%	8.6%	0.74	1.71
Milone	MIN	KCR	240.2	4.11	4.49	1.33	43.8%	15.5%	6.9%	1.23	1.09
Santiago	LAA	TEX	304	3.61	4.47	1.30	16.7%	20.4%	9.5%	1.27	0.58
Lewis	TEX	LAA	371	4.83	4.34	1.36	11.8%	16.9%	5.6%	1.24	0.76
Rusin	COL	SFG	138.1	5.53	4.36	1.63		14.3%	7.0%	1.11	1.87
Peavy	SFG	COL	308.1	3.71	4.17	1.23	42.1%	18.3%	6.8%	0.99	0.90
Koehler	MIA	PHI	373.2	3.90	4.41	1.32	52.6%	18.1%	9.1%	0.89	1.19
Harang	PHI	MIA	371	4.15	4.47	1.39	75.0%	16.7%	7.6%	0.97	0.93
Estrada	TOR	TBR	325	3.71	4.36	1.13	27.8%	18.8%	7.5%	1.41	0.63
Archer	TBR	TOR	401.2	3.29	3.42	1.20	55.0%	25.3%	8.2%	0.69	1.41
Finnegan	CIN	PIT	49	3.49	3.46	1.22		24.3%	9.9%	1.47	1.79
Burnett	PIT	CIN	371	3.98	3.85	1.39	38.1%	20.2%	8.8%	0.73	1.97
Nova	NYY	BAL	109	5.53	4.55	1.46	25.0%	14.8%	7.5%	1.49	1.51
Chen	BAL	NYY	371	3.44	3.89	1.22	31.6%	18.6%	4.7%	1.24	1.06
Verlander	DET	CHW	333.1	4.10	4.13	1.28	35.0%	18.7%	6.8%	0.84	0.88
Johnson	CHW	DET	52.1	4.82	4.89	1.59	20.0%	18.8%	12.4%	1.38	0.78
Breslow	BOS	CLE	114	5.05	4.59	1.65		15.6%	9.8%	1.42	0.84
Kluber	CLE	BOS	449.2	3.00	2.80	1.08	57.1%	27.9%	5.2%	0.72	1.37
Hendricks	CHC	MIL	254.1	3.57	3.63	1.16		19.8%	5.6%	0.74	1.73
Wagner	MIL	CHC
Lackey	STL	ATL	412	3.23	3.79	1.24	57.9%	19.6%	5.8%	0.96	1.34
Miller	ATL	STL	380.1	3.43	4.38	1.27	21.1%	18.3%	9.0%	0.83	1.18
Gonzalez	WAS	NYM	328.1	3.76	3.64	1.32	46.7%	23.3%	8.8%	0.49	1.61
Syndergaard	NYM	WAS	143	3.34	3.01	1.08		27.0%	5.2%	1.13	1.38
McHugh	HOU	ARI	351.1	3.43	3.59	1.17	42.9%	22.2%	6.4%	0.82	1.27
Hellickson	ARI	HOU	204.2	4.57	4.12	1.36		19.2%	7.1%	1.23	1.07
Nolin	OAK	SEA	25	5.40	5.49	1.64		11.3%	9.6%	1.44	1.09
Elias	SEA	OAK	277	3.87	4.05	1.28	26.3%	20.6%	9.0%	0.97	1.28
Erlin	SDP	LAD	71.1	5.17	3.95	1.39	37.5%	17.1%	5.6%	0.76	1.37
Greinke	LAD	SDP	417	2.18	3.09	1.00	50.0%	24.4%	5.0%	0.69	1.56

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Zack Greinke LAD (vs. SD) – The NL Cy Young will be one of the more hotly contested awards this season, as there are no fewer than three deserving candidates. Incumbent Clayton Kershaw has one more chance to stake his claim tomorrow and new hotness Jake Arrieta made his case yesterday; then there’s Greinke, the pitcher with the unthinkably-low ERA (it currently stands at 1.68) who has been as consistent as they come all season. The traditionalists will lean Arrieta due to his 22 wins, and those voters who suffer from recency bias will draw the same conclusion. Teammates aren’t supposed to split the vote when it comes to the Cy, but that’s exactly what we might see, though Greinke gets one last chance to make a lasting impression before the votes are submitted. He gets an easy target with the Padres, whose poor excuse for an offense is crawling to the finish line with a .272 wOBA and 604 OPS over the last seven days.

Max Scherzer WAS (at NYM) – We are treated with a battle of aces tonight, with Scherzer matching up head-to-head with fellow All-in candidate Matt Harvey. Scherzer was arguably the best pitcher in the NL for the first half of the season but has struggled in the second half, and though he has rebounded somewhat from a horrific August, he has still thrown the occasional clunker over the season’s final month, with two of his six September starts including four or more runs allowed. The roughest outing was against the Mets, against whom he surrendered five tallies (including three homers) in six frames back on September 7th. On the bright side, Scherzer has reached double-digit strikeouts in three of his last six turns, including his last two starts in a row, and he could put up a dominant line so long as he avoids the longball (he has given up 27 homers this year).

Matt Harvey NYM (vs. WAS) – The day after Scherzer had his rough outing against the Mets, Harvey laid an egg versus the Nats. The damage included seven earned runs and ten baserunners in 5.3 innings, after which the Mets went ahead and gave him a 12-day rest as they attempt to limit Harvey’s innings in his first year back from Tommy John surgery. Unlike Scherzer, Harvey had a remarkably clean month of August (0.33 ERA in four starts), and though he gave up four runs to the Phillies in the start prior to the Nationals disaster, his two starts since the extended rest have been very strong, including 11.7 innings and just two earned runs allowed, with 13 strikeouts against two walks. The Mets are hoping to get some innings out of Harvey in the postseason, so they might limit his innings in tonight’s tuneup, so don’t be surprised if he is out of the game well before his pitch count hits the century mark.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Corey Kluber CLE (vs. BOS) – Why is won-loss record a poor indicator of performance? I present exhibit A. His 3.62 ERA is solid yet unspectacular, though his K count is massive with 236 punchouts in 214.0 innings this season, with a K-to-walk ratio better than five-to-one. His talent puts him on the short list of All-in candidates on a regular basis, and yet Kluber carries a terrifying 8-16 record that is more an indicator of poor run support than his own lack of intestinal fortitude. He falls short of All-in status for tonight’s contest given his recent struggles, as Kluber has a 6.59 ERA in three September starts, two of which fell under 75 pitches, as he has battled a sore hamstring that has compromised his mechanics and thus his pitch command. He went 107 throws in his last start but still gave up four runs in six frames, and that was against a Minnesota offense that pales in comparison to the lineup that he is likely to face tonight against the Red Sox.

John Lackey STL (at ATL) – Lackey lacks the flare and the K-heavy stat-line that tends to get a pitcher noticed, but he shows up every fifth day and keeps opposing runners from crossing the plate. He has given up more than three runs just once since early June, and the one outlier was a four-spot of earnies that he surrendered to the Padres in mid-August. In fact, he has kept the opposition to two runs or fewer in 16 of his last 20 turns, and his 2.69 ERA on the season ranks just ahead of Harvey as the sixth-best mark in the National League. The veteran right-hander kept right on rolling through September, with five starts that each went 7.0 or more innings, and each of his last four turns has featured exactly seven frames with no more than two runs surrendered plus seven or more strikeouts in every contest. It might not be the sexiest play, but Lackey is one of the safest options around, making him an ideal candidate for a cash game roster.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Ventura	0.307	3.51	0.307	3.51	0.243	0.699	0.297	3.64	0.243	95.50	21.0%
Milone	0.337	4.25	0.337	4.25	0.272	0.728	0.284	4.54	0.261	86.60	15.5%
Santiago	0.324	4.18	0.324	4.18	0.254	0.736	0.266	4.57	0.233	86.39	20.4%
Lewis	0.330	5.04	0.330	5.04	0.249	0.710	0.311	4.34	0.278	96.74	16.9%
Rusin	0.378	5.51	0.378	5.51	0.268	0.703	0.345	4.43	0.311	83.85	14.3%
Peavy	0.314	3.28	0.314	3.28	0.270	0.773	0.281	4.00	0.246	97.58	18.3%
Koehler	0.323	4.01	0.323	4.01	0.245	0.678	0.286	4.16	0.247	92.19	18.1%
Harang	0.322	4.65	0.322	4.65	0.255	0.681	0.306	4.13	0.27	100.43	16.7%
Estrada	0.312	3.93	0.312	3.93	0.249	0.703	0.236	4.62	0.22	74.31	18.8%
Archer	0.292	3.58	0.292	3.58	0.265	0.789	0.296	3.14	0.228	100.57	25.3%
Finnegan	0.299	3.31	0.299	3.31	0.253	0.692	0.258	4.55	0.221	30.15	24.3%
Burnett	0.314	3.79	0.314	3.79	0.249	0.707	0.317	3.80	0.26	99.41	20.2%
Nova	0.345	5.74	0.345	5.74	0.252	0.747	0.302	5.19	0.281	87.60	14.8%
Chen	0.339	3.86	0.339	3.86	0.258	0.755	0.294	4.04	0.261	96.46	18.6%
Verlander	0.340	5.32	0.340	5.32	0.253	0.702	0.298	3.70	0.255	106.63	18.7%
Johnson	0.304	4.71	0.304	4.71	0.268	0.732	0.307	5.28	0.267	100.30	18.8%
Breslow	0.374	6.11	0.374	6.11	0.263	0.730	0.326	5.22	0.295	18.65	15.6%
Kluber	0.245	2.77	0.245	2.77	0.265	0.741	0.308	2.66	0.231	102.55	27.9%
Hendricks	0.269	3.71	0.269	3.71	0.260	0.716	0.290	3.42	0.244	87.95	19.8%
Wagner	0.706	14.73	0.706	14.73	0.246	0.728
Lackey	0.296	3.40	0.296	3.40	0.257	0.683	0.299	3.66	0.256	97.56	19.6%
Miller	0.289	3.23	0.289	3.23	0.264	0.743	0.273	3.99	0.235	93.67	18.3%
Gonzalez	0.309	3.81	0.309	3.81	0.245	0.730	0.321	3.05	0.248	95.84	23.3%
Syndergaard	0.271	2.93	0.271	2.93	0.250	0.720	0.286	3.27	0.228	99.09	27.0%
McHugh	0.304	3.60	0.304	3.60	0.265	0.738	0.289	3.41	0.237	100.64	22.2%
Hellickson	0.348	4.74	0.348	4.74	0.248	0.742	0.300	4.29	0.261	91.64	19.2%
Nolin	0.362	6.06	0.362	6.06	0.265	0.738	0.299	5.50	0.288	72.83	11.3%
Elias	0.322	3.97	0.322	3.97	0.251	0.704	0.285	4.16	0.24	89.04	20.6%
Erlin	0.332	4.47	0.332	4.47	0.265	0.756	0.332	3.53	0.286	76.07	17.1%
Greinke	0.256	2.41	0.256	2.41	0.245	0.692	0.271	2.86	0.216	100.65	24.4%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Luis Severino NYY (at BAL) – The Yankees entered the season with several question marks in their rotation, but they enter the playoffs with Masahiro Tanaka pitching his best baseball of the season, with a relatively healthy CC Sabathia, and with a dynamite rookie in Severino who has taken the league by storm. He has a 2.77 ERA in 10 starts this season and has given up more than three runs just one time in the majors this season, with the outlier coming against the league-best offense of Toronto. The K counts have been modest of late, with just five total punchouts over his last two turns (covering 12.0 innings) and having cracked five whiffs just once in five starts this month. The Orioles have a hefty offense but have often been without their rock for the past couple of weeks as Adam Jones battles a balky back, but Severino has seemingly faced nothing but top offenses since his call-up and he is unlikely to be intimidated by the task at hand.

Shelby Miller ATL (vs. STL) – Miller represents exhibit B for the case against won-loss record. His mark of 5-17 is even worse than that of Kluber (the 17 losses lead the majors), and though the woeful offense of the Braves has a lot to do with it, no pitcher who has pitched as well as Miller has this season deserves to be judged based on won-loss record alone. Case in point, his 3.15 ERA is 20-percent better than the league average. That said, there are a few caveats. First, Miller has given up 13 unearned runs this season (more than 15 percent of his total runs allowed); second, his ownership of the strike-zone stats has left something to be desired, with a K rate under 20 percent and a walk rate above eight percent, culminating in a modest K-to-walk ratio of 2.34-to-one; and finally, he has pitched his worst baseball of the season during the past month, with a 7.11 ERA and 17 strikeouts against 12 walks in his last five starts, and that unsightly ERA doesn’t include the four unearned runs that have also crossed the plate. It has been a strong rebound campaign for Miller, but much like his breakout season of 2013, the right-hander is fading badly down the stretch as his season-long stamina comes into question.

Justin Verlander DET (at CHW) – The Cy-worthy pitcher that dominated the American League is now three seasons back in the rearview mirror, but the Tigers have to be happy that Verlander has finally started to adjust to life with lesser velocity. The strikeouts are unimpressive, with a K rate of just 20.4 percent this season (it was consistently over 23 percent during his heyday, peaking at 27.4 percent) but his walk and hit rates have returned to past levels, resulting in a 1.092 WHIP that supports his 3.39 ERA. He draws an easy opponent in his final start of the year, facing a White Sox club that is last in the AL in runs scored, as Verlander and the Tigers hope to turn the page on a forgettable season. Detroit owes Verlander another $112 million over the next four years, so they have to hope that he has utilized this season to figure out how to pitch effectively as his stuff continues to fade.

Collin McHugh HOU (at ARI) – While teammate Dallas Keuchel continues his trek toward hardware, McHugh has faded badly down the stretch, such that the Astros have to wonder if he is a viable rotation candidate should they advance to the ALDS. He was looking great through August, but the right-hander has stumbled to a 5.70 ERA over his last four starts, coughing up four or more runs in three of those turns. The Astros have overcome the shoddy performance to go 3-1 in those ballgames and McHugh has made the sabermetricians happy with 23 strikeouts against eight walks over that 23.7-inning stretch. The key moving forward will be his ability to keep the ball in park, an area in which he has done very well over the past few months, with only five homers surrendered over his last 16 starts combined.

A.J. Burnett PIT (vs. CIN)

Kyle Hendricks CHC (at MIL)

Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (vs. NYY)

Roenis Elias SEA (vs. OAK)

Brandon Finnegan CIN (at PIT)

Justin Nicolino MIA (at PHI)

Sean Nolin OAK (at SEA)

Jeremy Hellickson ARI (vs. HOU)

Robbie Erlin SD (at LAD)

Erik Johnson CHW (vs. DET)

Craig Breslow BOS (at CLE)