Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Saturday, September 12th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find the needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
Daily Pitcher Chart
Editor’s Note: Dan Haren has been removed from tonight’s start due to uncertain weather conditions. Lefty Travis Wood will start in his place, if there’s a game at all.
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lynn | STL | CIN | 353.2 | 2.90 | 3.85 | 1.31 | 60.0% | 21.9% | 8.4% | 0.64 | 1.20 |
| Desclafani | CIN | STL | 196 | 4.18 | 4.15 | 1.34 | 20.0% | 18.4% | 6.8% | 0.87 | 1.23 |
| Estrada | TOR | NYY | 298 | 3.78 | 4.24 | 1.14 | 27.8% | 19.5% | 7.5% | 1.42 | 0.64 |
| Pineda | NYY | TOR | 210.2 | 3.33 | 3.17 | 1.07 | 75.0% | 22.6% | 3.0% | 0.85 | 1.36 |
| Roark | WAS | MIA | 282.1 | 3.32 | 4.01 | 1.16 | 52.6% | 16.6% | 5.2% | 0.89 | 1.23 |
| Fernandez | MIA | WAS | 94.2 | 2.38 | 2.42 | 0.98 | 75.0% | 32.7% | 6.1% | 0.48 | 1.38 |
| Porcello | BOS | TBR | 341.2 | 4.11 | 3.88 | 1.28 | 55.6% | 17.0% | 5.0% | 1.08 | 1.51 |
| Moore | TBR | BOS | 41.1 | 6.75 | 5.29 | 1.81 | 13.3% | 10.2% | 1.09 | 1.02 | |
| Ventura | KCR | BAL | 315.2 | 3.68 | 3.82 | 1.30 | 44.4% | 21.2% | 8.7% | 0.77 | 1.63 |
| Tillman | BAL | KCR | 350.2 | 4.08 | 4.41 | 1.30 | 42.9% | 16.8% | 7.9% | 1.00 | 1.11 |
| Haren | CHC | PHI | 352.2 | 3.88 | 4.06 | 1.17 | 30.0% | 17.9% | 4.8% | 1.45 | 0.84 |
| Eickhoff | PHI | CHC | 23 | 4.70 | 4.70 | 1.26 | 16.7% | 6.3% | 1.17 | 0.60 | |
| Davies | MIL | PIT | |||||||||
| Locke | PIT | MIL | 281.1 | 4.25 | 4.15 | 1.36 | 66.7% | 16.8% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 1.89 |
| Milone | MIN | CHW | 230 | 3.87 | 4.44 | 1.30 | 43.8% | 15.7% | 6.7% | 1.25 | 1.09 |
| Quintana | CHW | MIN | 377.2 | 3.46 | 3.54 | 1.28 | 50.0% | 21.0% | 5.6% | 0.57 | 1.48 |
| Verlander | DET | CLE | 305.2 | 4.18 | 4.15 | 1.30 | 35.0% | 18.4% | 6.8% | 0.85 | 0.88 |
| Anderson | CLE | DET | 65.1 | 3.72 | 4.75 | 1.03 | 11.3% | 5.5% | 0.96 | 1.55 | |
| Syndergaard | NYM | ATL | 122.1 | 3.31 | 3.22 | 1.14 | 25.8% | 5.8% | 1.10 | 1.29 | |
| Perez | ATL | NYM | 93 | 5.42 | 4.97 | 1.57 | 14.2% | 10.4% | 1.06 | 1.65 | |
| Nolin | OAK | TEX | |||||||||
| Gallardo | TEX | OAK | 357.1 | 3.35 | 4.17 | 1.32 | 50.0% | 16.5% | 7.6% | 0.83 | 1.74 |
| Bolsinger | LAD | ARI | 146.1 | 3.87 | 3.67 | 1.35 | 33.3% | 21.2% | 8.0% | 0.74 | 1.92 |
| De La Rosa | ARI | LAD | 274 | 4.47 | 4.10 | 1.37 | 57.1% | 18.1% | 7.4% | 1.35 | 1.49 |
| McCullers | HOU | LAA | 96.2 | 3.07 | 3.53 | 1.18 | 25.4% | 8.5% | 0.47 | 1.51 | |
| Santiago | LAA | HOU | 285.2 | 3.47 | 4.36 | 1.28 | 16.7% | 20.8% | 9.3% | 1.17 | 0.60 |
| Kennedy | SDP | SFG | 347.2 | 3.78 | 3.54 | 1.27 | 47.6% | 24.5% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 1.02 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | SDP | 406 | 3.01 | 2.98 | 1.07 | 47.6% | 25.9% | 4.6% | 0.84 | 1.23 |
| Flande | COL | SEA | 119 | 4.92 | 3.90 | 1.29 | 14.7% | 7.5% | 1.29 | 2.65 | |
| Elias | SEA | COL | 260 | 4.02 | 4.07 | 1.30 | 26.3% | 20.0% | 8.7% | 0.97 | 1.29 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Madison Bumgarner SF (vs. SD) – Mad Bum’s last start was his worst since July, giving up four earned runs and ten baserunners with just three strikeouts in six innings of work, but it might as well have qualified as a Quality Start considering that he was pitching at Coors Field. Prior to the Colorado tilt, Bummer had a dominant six-start stretch in which he posted a 1.61 ERA with 61 strikeouts and just five walks across 44.7 frames. The southpaw combines incredible consistency, both statistically and mechanically (check out his release point data for any ballgame over at BrooksBaseball.net), with elite upside. He would earn more Cy Young consideration if he didn’t pitch in the same division as Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, even though he has gone toe-to-toe with one of the two Dodger aces four times this year, going 2-1 with a 1.63 ERA in those contests.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Noah Syndergaard NYM (at ATL) – Thor’s pitch efficiency has been a bit off-kilter lately, which combined with the Mets need to corral his innings has resulted in his failure to finish the sixth inning in three of his last five starts. Part of the issue has been his performance, with a 5.53 ERA over that five-game stretch including seven homers allowed in 27.7 innings. The Braves are just the cure for a rookie who has lost his way, and even if the Mets limit the kid to less than 100 pitches he has a good shot of cracking six innings.
Jose Fernandez MIA (vs. WAS) – Big Fern has the talent to play in the All-In section nearly every time that he takes the mound, but he feels like more of a GPP dice-roll today than a cash-game rock, at least until we see him in action. There’s a strong likelihood that the Marlins will limit his workload in this game, as they have no incentive to push him, though the biggest obstacle might just be Fernandez’s competitive nature. I will also be interested to monitor his usage of the Defector in tonight’s game, as the right-hander has uncorked the breaking pitch at a 32.2-percent rate this season, which is a bit higher than one would like to see from a pitcher in his return from Tommy John surgery.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lynn | 0.331 | 3.57 | 0.282 | 2.41 | 0.251 | 0.711 | 0.305 | 3.36 | 0.244 | 102.85 | 21.9% |
| Desclafani | 0.339 | 4.85 | 0.304 | 3.45 | 0.264 | 0.733 | 0.311 | 3.80 | 0.266 | 77.45 | 18.4% |
| Estrada | 0.295 | 3.55 | 0.316 | 4.01 | 0.251 | 0.742 | 0.241 | 4.59 | 0.222 | 73.10 | 19.5% |
| Pineda | 0.280 | 2.91 | 0.296 | 3.76 | 0.263 | 0.777 | 0.298 | 2.96 | 0.245 | 92.60 | 22.6% |
| Roark | 0.319 | 3.70 | 0.274 | 2.96 | 0.251 | 0.669 | 0.277 | 3.79 | 0.247 | 66.11 | 16.6% |
| Fernandez | 0.300 | 2.51 | 0.187 | 2.26 | 0.252 | 0.724 | 0.290 | 1.99 | 0.199 | 94.87 | 32.7% |
| Porcello | 0.336 | 3.86 | 0.312 | 4.41 | 0.245 | 0.695 | 0.308 | 4.00 | 0.273 | 95.18 | 17.0% |
| Moore | 0.354 | 6.92 | 0.400 | 6.67 | 0.272 | 0.756 | 0.355 | 5.20 | 0.32 | 84.11 | 13.3% |
| Ventura | 0.306 | 3.82 | 0.306 | 3.50 | 0.252 | 0.744 | 0.296 | 3.66 | 0.242 | 95.39 | 21.2% |
| Tillman | 0.300 | 2.97 | 0.330 | 5.31 | 0.271 | 0.746 | 0.279 | 4.23 | 0.249 | 97.10 | 16.8% |
| Haren | 0.325 | 3.93 | 0.306 | 3.84 | 0.248 | 0.681 | 0.267 | 4.43 | 0.247 | 95.15 | 17.9% |
| Eickhoff | 0.484 | 11.05 | 0.210 | 1.72 | 0.245 | 0.730 | 0.282 | 4.23 | 0.256 | 86.00 | 16.7% |
| Davies | 0.260 | 0.722 | |||||||||
| Locke | 0.306 | 4.06 | 0.325 | 4.31 | 0.237 | 0.685 | 0.297 | 4.20 | 0.261 | 92.83 | 16.8% |
| Milone | 0.281 | 3.66 | 0.334 | 3.94 | 0.244 | 0.643 | 0.279 | 4.55 | 0.257 | 87.64 | 15.7% |
| Quintana | 0.294 | 4.28 | 0.313 | 3.18 | 0.259 | 0.725 | 0.329 | 3.00 | 0.266 | 104.62 | 21.0% |
| Verlander | 0.294 | 3.22 | 0.347 | 5.48 | 0.252 | 0.723 | 0.301 | 3.74 | 0.258 | 106.19 | 18.4% |
| Anderson | 0.303 | 5.02 | 0.251 | 2.70 | 0.268 | 0.738 | 0.224 | 4.34 | 0.22 | 82.82 | 11.3% |
| Syndergaard | 0.295 | 3.36 | 0.285 | 3.27 | 0.257 | 0.684 | 0.291 | 3.39 | 0.234 | 99.65 | 25.8% |
| Perez | 0.383 | 6.61 | 0.321 | 4.17 | 0.246 | 0.709 | 0.314 | 5.09 | 0.284 | 79.16 | 14.2% |
| Nolin | 0.277 | 3.00 | 0.329 | 6.75 | 0.242 | 0.697 | |||||
| Gallardo | 0.304 | 3.25 | 0.310 | 3.44 | 0.252 | 0.702 | 0.290 | 3.94 | 0.254 | 99.72 | 16.5% |
| Bolsinger | 0.338 | 3.73 | 0.294 | 3.98 | 0.266 | 0.736 | 0.316 | 3.45 | 0.257 | 85.81 | 21.2% |
| De La Rosa | 0.383 | 5.74 | 0.295 | 3.26 | 0.246 | 0.739 | 0.301 | 4.54 | 0.268 | 94.30 | 18.1% |
| McCullers | 0.255 | 3.00 | 0.315 | 3.15 | 0.249 | 0.707 | 0.295 | 2.90 | 0.222 | 94.06 | 25.4% |
| Santiago | 0.272 | 1.89 | 0.318 | 4.04 | 0.245 | 0.743 | 0.270 | 4.35 | 0.232 | 87.02 | 20.8% |
| Kennedy | 0.318 | 3.62 | 0.326 | 3.93 | 0.268 | 0.739 | 0.302 | 3.82 | 0.244 | 100.19 | 24.5% |
| Bumgarner | 0.252 | 2.34 | 0.289 | 3.18 | 0.247 | 0.686 | 0.298 | 2.93 | 0.234 | 102.03 | 25.9% |
| Flande | 0.263 | 5.05 | 0.363 | 4.86 | 0.265 | 0.734 | 0.273 | 4.78 | 0.257 | 56.72 | 14.7% |
| Elias | 0.302 | 3.79 | 0.323 | 4.08 | 0.253 | 0.677 | 0.29 | 4.17 | 0.245 | 90.89 | 20.0% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Justin Verlander DET (at CLE) – The right-hander pitched like it was 2012 throughout the month of August, and he has started September with a couple of solid turns that were light on strikeouts (four apiece). The last of those starts was against the Indians, a team that he had previously seen in his first outing of the year (which was in June) and whom he draws in consecutive starts as the schedule draws to a close. The old school velocity hasn’t returned but he hasn’t continued to lose velo, either, and the onus is now on Verlander to improve his pitch command in order to compensate for the loss of stuff.
Jose Quintana CHW (vs. MIN) – He has to dodge Brian Dozier, who rips southpaws, and the Twins look much more formidable now than it did when Quintana last faced the team (in May). As Miguel Sano has changed the face of their offense in the second half of the season. Sano has been in and out of the lineup recently, and his absence would create a much easier path to fantasy points for Quintana. Minnesota has hit for a meager 636 OPS and .280 wOBA over the last seven days, but the Twins can also point to the last time that they faced Quintana, in which they scored seven runs (six earned) over six innings off of the left-hander.
Lance McCullers HOU (at LAA) – It doesn’t get much worse than McCullers’ outing against Texas on August 3, in which the right-hander recorded just one out while the Rangers crossed the plate six times under his watch. He was given a couple of weeks off of big-league duty after that forgettable outing, but since his late-August return McCullers has rattled off three consecutive starts that fit the standards for a QS, including a 2.70 ERA and 22 K’s over 20.0 innings. The Angels have a limited offense that is not only top heavy but also relies on over-the-fence power, yet they are facing a pitcher who has given up just five homers in 96.7 innings of work this season.
Hector Santiago LAA (vs. HOU) – Santiago is adept at squelching left-handed power, but he could be in trouble against a Houston team that leans to the right. The Astros have hit lefties for a .321 wOBA and 743 OPS this season, and that’s including the portion of the season in which the right-handed bats of Carlos Correa and Carlos Gomez were not on the big-league roster. Throw in the return of George Springer, and Santiago could be in for a rough outing.
Ian Kennedy SD (at SF) – In terms of homers, Kennedy lies on the opposite extreme of the spectrum as the aforementioned McCullers, having given up 28 bombs this season in his 146.7 innings. He’s calmed things down a bit over the last two months, in the sense that Kennedy hasn’t had a multi-homer game since before the All-Star Break, and the allure comes from a sudden boon to his K count, with Kennedy having rattled off nine or more strikeouts in three of his last four games, something that he never accomplished in his first 22 starts of the year.
Yovani Gallardo TEX (vs. OAK) – Gallardo has been spiking zeroes this season, and though his run of goose eggs appeared to be over once we hit the All-Star break, he has returned to form by not allowing a run in four of his last six starts. Pitch efficiency is still an issue that limits his ability to eat innings, as Gallardo hasn’t thrown more than 6.0 innings in any start during the second half of the regular season.
Editor’s Note: Dan Haren has been removed from tonight’s start due to uncertain weather conditions. Lefty Travis Wood will start in his place, if there’s a game at all.
Dan Haren CHC (at PHI) – Haren is a relatively nondescript pitcher from a statistical standpoint, as he’s been relatively hittable (3.73 ERA) and strikes out just 6.3 batters per nine innings. He keeps the walks down, but Haren’s line is highly dependent on the vagaries of balls in play. The Phillies are a light-hitting ballclub (.299 wOBA for the season, .273 wOBA last seven days) that is without it’s biggest bat (Maikel Franco), setting Haren up for a decent day at the office, but you never know when the young Phillies will strike.
Tanner Roark WAS (at MIA)
Mike Bolsinger LAD (at ARI)
Tommy Milone MIN (at CHW)
Rubby de la Rosa ARI (vs. LAD)
Sean Nolin OAK (at TEX)
Roenis Elias SEA (vs. COL)
Kyle Davies MIL (at PIT)
Yohan Flande COL (at SEA)
Jeff Locke PIT (vs. MIL)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Cody Anderson CLE (vs. DET)
Williams Perez ATL (vs. NYM)
Jerad Eickhoff PHI (vs. CHC)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window.