Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Thursday, August 25th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-08-26 01:43:31

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Editor’s Note: Matt Wisler is now starting for the Braves tonight.

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Pomeranz	BOS	TBR	226.1	3.22	3.83	1.16	25.0%	25.0%	9.4%	0.95	1.23
Odorizzi	TBR	BOS	318	3.48	4.01	1.18	36.8%	21.7%	6.7%	1.13	0.87
Norris	DET	MIN	88.1	3.77	4.52	1.37		18.1%	7.9%	1.32	0.96
Berrios	MIN	DET	32	9.28	4.86	1.94		20.5%	11.5%	1.97	0.90
Jimenez	BAL	WAS	278.2	5.07	4.32	1.55	27.8%	20.4%	10.2%	1.00	1.65
Scherzer	WAS	BAL	402.2	2.91	2.80	0.94	60.0%	31.1%	4.9%	1.16	0.75
Weaver	LAA	TOR	297.1	5.02	5.27	1.37	52.4%	12.5%	5.5%	1.63	0.66
Happ	TOR	LAA	322.1	3.35	3.94	1.21	30.8%	21.5%	6.7%	0.95	1.20
Koehler	MIA	KCR	326.1	3.97	4.74	1.38	52.6%	17.6%	9.7%	0.94	1.26
Lugo	NYM	STL	23.2	3.04	4.07	1.01		20.0%	7.4%	0.00	1.13
Wainwright	STL	NYM	179	4.22	4.17	1.31	84.2%	18.6%	6.2%	0.65	1.57
Tomlin	CLE	TEX	207	3.96	3.99	1.09	23.1%	18.7%	3.1%	1.96	1.06
Hamels	TEX	CLE	373	3.28	3.69	1.23	58.8%	24.0%	7.9%	0.99	1.55
Kuhl	PIT	MIL	37.1	3.62	4.92	1.18		14.5%	5.9%	0.96	0.98
Peralta	MIL	PIT	192.2	5.28	4.84	1.62	47.4%	13.3%	8.2%	1.31	1.81
Paxton	SEA	CWS	148.2	3.69	4.07	1.37	50.0%	20.1%	7.3%	0.85	1.52
Ranaudo	CWS	SEA	29.2	8.49	6.16	1.72		12.8%	14.9%	2.12	0.80
Gant	ATL	ARI	30.1	4.45	3.90	1.38		23.9%	8.5%	0.89	1.03
Ray	ARI	ATL	267.2	3.93	3.72	1.37	33.3%	25.2%	8.5%	0.91	1.36
Moore	SFG	LAD	216	4.54	4.60	1.37		19.1%	8.6%	1.29	0.90
Stripling	LAD	SFG	71.1	4.04	4.30	1.25		17.7%	7.7%	0.76	1.87

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Max Scherzer WAS (vs. BAL) – Scherzer has disappointed his fantasy owners for two straight starts, and while it’s easy to excuse his subpar turn at the high-altitude hell of Coors Field, it’s not so easy overlook the four runs and three walks that he gave up to the Braves in his last game. Prior to the Colorado game, Scherzer had fired eight consecutive quality starts, with an excellent K:BB of 70:11 over 56.1 innings; he walked more than two batters (read: three) just once over that stretch, and he also allowed more than two runs (read: three) just one time in that eight-game stretch. The right-hander has greatly quieted the fireworks that were on display in the first half of the season, in which he gave up 20 home runs in his first 16 starts, as Scherzer has let just five baseballs leave the yard in his last 10 starts and 66.2 innings pitched. Homers will likely be an X factor against a Baltimore club that leads the majors with 197 homers this season.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Cole Hamels TEX (vs. CLE) – Hamels hasn’t given up more than three runs in any of his last seven starts, including a two-run game against the Tigers despite giving up 14 hits in 7.0 frames. Hamels has the capacity to go deep into games, lasting 7.0 or more innings in 13 of his 25 starts this season, a critical skill in DFS that allows him to pile on late points with extra frames and Ks while increasing the odds of earning a win. Hamels crushed the Rays in his last start, striking out ten batters while giving up just one run on three hits and two walks in 7.1 innings of work. The Indians have endured a run-scoring drought of late, plating just six total runs over their last four games and failing to crack more than five runs in seven straight and nine of their last ten games.

J.A. Happ TOR (vs. LAA) – Happ has become something of a strikeout aficionado over the past couple months, whiffing nine or more batters in four of his last eight starts and totaling 64 strikeouts over 50.2 innings during that stretch. The Angels might slow down his K production, given that the Halos have the fewest batter strikeouts in the majors by a healthy margin. The streak of wins is getting ridiculous, as Happ has earned the W in 11 of his last 12 starts to take his record from a solid 6-3 to its current 17-3 glory. He’s a reliable source of 5.0-7.0 innings but rarely falls outside that range.

Robbie Ray ARI (vs. ATL) – Ray has been piling up the strikeouts all season, though a high ERA and shady peripherals kept his performance largely under the radar; that is, until he struck out 13 Padres while allowing just one hit (a homer) and one walk over seven full innings. It was his third game in the last six with double-digit strikeouts, though he never broke that threshold in his first 19 starts. One of those other games of 10-plus Ks came against the Brewers, and its extremely common for pitchers to post season-high K-counts when facing the Pads and Brewers, aka the two highest-strikeout offenses in baseball. The Braves, while having an offense that is even worse than that of San Diego or Milwaukee, have more of a contact-heavy roster, and Atlanta has a weird penchant for hanging crooked numbers on elite pitchers. Lucky for Ray, he’s not elite.

Drew Pomeranz BOS (at TB) – Moving out of the cozy confines of Petco Park and into the straightjacket dimensions of Fenway Park has not been kind to the southpaw’s home run rate, as he has given up at least one homer in each of his seven starts with the Sawx resulting in a total of eight, after allowing a matching eight-count of longballs over 17 starts with the Padres this season. Outside of the home runs, however, Pomeranz has shut down opposing offenses, including just six total runs allowed despite four longballs on his ledger.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Pomeranz	0.239	1.82	0.293	3.78	0.256	0.748	0.260	3.68	0.209	48.71	25.0%
Odorizzi	0.264	2.67	0.335	4.35	0.273	0.774	0.276	3.86	0.235	99.87	21.7%
Norris	0.395	5.32	0.316	3.26	0.259	0.743	0.291	4.58	0.26	75.60	18.1%
Berrios	0.356	7.02	0.482	11.74	0.267	0.743	0.385	5.96	0.326	0.00	20.5%
Jimenez	0.346	5.50	0.337	4.65	0.250	0.730	0.332	4.26	0.274	0.00	20.4%
Scherzer	0.296	3.10	0.224	2.71	0.262	0.775	0.260	3.02	0.2	0.01	31.1%
Weaver	0.354	4.63	0.354	5.40	0.257	0.777	0.291	5.30	0.284	0.00	12.5%
Happ	0.291	3.14	0.300	3.41	0.246	0.701	0.293	3.63	0.245	91.39	21.5%
Volquez	0.314	3.86	0.318	4.54	0.262	0.705	0.300	4.07	0.259	97.12	17.6%
Koehler	0.328	4.01	0.309	3.93	0.263	0.719	0.289	4.34	0.251	93.44	17.6%
Lugo			0.241	3.86	0.261	0.760	0.254	2.68	0.198	0.02	20.0%
Wainwright	0.339	4.86	0.300	3.77	0.241	0.708	0.321	3.39	0.27	87.13	18.6%
Tomlin	0.263	2.81	0.357	4.95	0.260	0.745	0.255	4.89	0.246	93.58	18.7%
Hamels	0.273	2.01	0.304	3.63	0.270	0.744	0.293	3.70	0.236	103.89	24.0%
Kuhl	0.353	3.32	0.245	3.93	0.251	0.711	0.267	4.17	0.246	83.29	14.5%
Peralta	0.385	5.10	0.376	5.46	0.259	0.725	0.336	5.05	0.311	0.00	13.3%
Paxton	0.389	5.06	0.290	3.39	0.248	0.680	0.317	3.60	0.264	92.65	20.1%
Ranaudo	0.335	8.31	0.425	8.76	0.250	0.738	0.245	7.22	0.252	0.00	12.8%
Gant	0.351	4.24	0.326	4.73	0.263	0.737	0.333	3.58	0.263	48.73	23.9%
Ray	0.298	3.11	0.329	4.24	0.237	0.646	0.331	3.53	0.256	99.52	25.2%
Moore	0.312	5.53	0.330	4.20	0.247	0.715	0.294	4.61	0.258	97.19	19.1%
Stripling	0.238	1.36	0.339	6.34	0.264	0.739	0.276	3.77	0.239	76.67	17.7%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Adam Wainwright STL (vs. NYM) – Wainwright is coming off of a baseline quality start against the Phillies in his last start, a modest performance that was nonetheless very encouraging for a pitcher who had posted an 8.69 ERA and 15:9 K:BB over his previous four starts. Waino hasn’t made t easy, getting torched for the first six weeks of the season before settling down, then hitting his stride with several strong outings in mid-summer, only to lose it again over the last month. He had back-to-back blowup starts before his last turn, and while the seven runs that he gave up in 2.0 innings might be excused by the might of the offense he was facing (Cubs), the right-hander has no such excuse for his six-run implosion against the Braves. The call list today is more about closing your eyes and then surveying the damage post hoc than it is finding a diamond in the rough.

Tom Koehler MIA (vs. KC) – Koehler had a horrific run of starts heading into – and coming out of – the All-Star break, with massive hit counts, few innings and plenty of runs crossing the plate. Since the end of July, though, he has been on fire, with six consecutive quality starts that include a 1.62 ERA and 30:7 K:BB in 39 innings. He has only allowed 26 hits in that time, so there is likely some regression looming over his hit rate that will drive higher run-scoring, and the weak-hitting Royals gives Koehler a buffer in the form of low-quality contact.

Chad Kuhl PIT (at MIL) – Kuhl has pitched well since earning his recall to the show, with three consecutive starts that each involved two earned runs and exactly 6.0 innings pitched. He hasn’t topped five strikeouts in any of his seven starts, and in his last turn Kuhl tossed the six innings without recording a single strikeout, so the fantasy-point upside is limited. Interestingly, he has an odd pattern with his walks: he has walked four batters in each of two different starts this season (total of eight walks in 11 frames), but he has walked just one batter across all of his other five starts. The Pirates have also been a bit weird with his innings, capping him at 6.0 whether throwing 102 pitches or 75.

Matt Moore SF (at LAD) – Moore’s lack of control has gotten out of … control. He’s walked 17 batters over 23 innings as a member of the Giants, though he does have 22 strikeouts over that stretch. He’s also thrown 6.0 frames in three of the starts, but doing so has required high pitch counts due to all of the walks and Ks, decreasing his odds of going deep into the ballgame. Moore’s last start as a member of the Rays was actually an interleague matchup with the Dodgers, and Moore came out ahead of that one with one run allowed (unearned) over 6.2 frames, with four hits and four walks allowed. Moore scored 24.20 points on DraftKings against the Dodgers that day, the highest score that he has managed since June.

Josh Tomlin CLE (at TEX)

Jake Odorizzi TB (vs. BOS)

Ross Stripling LAD (vs. SF)

James Paxton SEA (at CHW)

Daniel Norris DET (at MIN)

Edinson Volquez KC (at MIA)

Jose Berrios MIN (vs. DET)

Matt Wisler ATL (at ARI)