Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Thursday, July 21st
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urias | LAD | WAS | 36.1 | 4.95 | 3.90 | 1.54 | 27.3% | 10.6% | 0.99 | 1.06 | |
| Strasburg | WAS | LAD | 242 | 3.01 | 2.93 | 1.05 | 52.4% | 30.2% | 6.1% | 0.93 | 1.22 |
| Tillman | BAL | NYY | 293.1 | 4.30 | 4.63 | 1.32 | 42.9% | 17.9% | 8.9% | 1.04 | 1.14 |
| Sabathia | NYY | BAL | 261 | 4.45 | 4.30 | 1.41 | 25.0% | 18.5% | 7.6% | 1.21 | 1.39 |
| Koehler | MIA | PHI | 287.1 | 4.29 | 4.84 | 1.45 | 52.6% | 17.3% | 10.3% | 0.94 | 1.27 |
| Eickhoff | PHI | MIA | 166 | 3.42 | 3.98 | 1.18 | 21.3% | 6.3% | 1.03 | 1.13 | |
| Garza | MIL | PIT | 180 | 5.65 | 4.74 | 1.59 | 35.0% | 15.1% | 8.4% | 1.30 | 1.41 |
| Liriano | PIT | MIL | 285.1 | 3.97 | 3.94 | 1.35 | 12.5% | 24.3% | 10.8% | 0.91 | 1.84 |
| Wright | BOS | MIN | 192.2 | 3.27 | 4.52 | 1.22 | 18.5% | 8.8% | 0.89 | 1.21 | |
| Cashner | SDP | STL | 252.1 | 4.53 | 4.20 | 1.45 | 75.0% | 19.7% | 8.4% | 1.07 | 1.53 |
| Wainwright | STL | SDP | 147.1 | 3.67 | 4.13 | 1.22 | 84.2% | 18.3% | 5.8% | 0.49 | 1.59 |
| Pelfrey | DET | CWS | 264.2 | 4.52 | 4.89 | 1.58 | 11.3% | 7.4% | 0.82 | 1.97 | |
| Shields | CWS | DET | 311.2 | 4.33 | 4.18 | 1.40 | 42.9% | 21.9% | 9.6% | 1.47 | 1.30 |
| Foltynewicz | ATL | COL | 142.2 | 4.92 | 4.16 | 1.45 | 20.2% | 6.7% | 1.77 | 0.86 | |
| Bettis | COL | ATL | 223.2 | 4.87 | 4.10 | 1.45 | 18.6% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 1.83 | |
| Moore | TBR | OAK | 179.1 | 4.72 | 4.49 | 1.38 | 18.6% | 7.4% | 1.41 | 0.89 | |
| Gray | OAK | TBR | 304.2 | 3.49 | 4.03 | 1.21 | 60.0% | 19.3% | 7.7% | 0.89 | 1.81 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Stephen Strasburg WAS (vs. LAD) – Stras is pitching one of the two early contests on today’s half-slate of games, so his services will only be available in all-day tournaments, but it might be worth designing an all-day roster just to fit the right-hander in given the enormous chasm between him and every other available pitcher. He hasn’t surrendered more than a single run in any of his last four starts, and though he hasn’t cracked double-digit strikeouts in any games over that stretch (he still has 28 Ks in 28.2 innings), he did crack 10 or more Ks in four of the five turns prior to his recent run of dominant run prevention. It will be Strasburg’s first start against an NL West opponent this season.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Adam Wainwright STL (vs. SD) – The bar has been lowered for inclusion into the Raise category, but A&W might float by on his own merit. After a horrific starts to the season, Waino has really righted the ship, and in his last three starts he has combined to allow just one run over 23.0 innings of work (0.39 ERA) with 19 strikeouts against five walks. Of course, the start that immediately preceded his recent hot streak involved six runs and ten hits allowed versus the Royals, but that game was actually the only one in his last eight that did not meet the threshold of a quality start. Back in April, it looked like Wainwright was headed toward a lost season and that his days of dominance might be gone for good, but his last few turns have vaulted the right-hander back into Raise territory and back into the circle of trust.
Chris Tillman BAL (at NYY) – Tillman is on a roll of run prevention, with three consecutive starts that have some eerily similar traits. In each game, Tillman has lasted 7.0 innings and given up exactly one run, doing so despite a K-count that matched his walk total (10 K and 10 BB over 21.0 IP). He’s given up just 10 hits over that span, but most importantly, he’s kept the ball in the yard, with zero homers allowed in those three games after getting tagged for 13 jacks in his previous nine outings. The Yankees offense has scuffled this season with the second-lowest OPS in the American League and sitting comfortably in the bottom one-third of the league in runs per game. He has spiked a few nine-strikeout starts this season, and in each of those three games scored more than 30 fantasy points on DraftKings, so there is some upside in the tank.
Jerad Eickhoff PHI (vs. MIA) – Eickhoff has allowed two or fewer runs in seven of his last nine starts, and in one of the two other games he came within one out of a quality start. The big outlier is an eight-run massacre from two starts ago, but Eickhoff should get a mulligan for that turn given that he was pitching in the pinball conditions of Coors Field. The upside is somewhat limited, as Eickhoff has yet to strike out more than nine batters or complete the eighth inning in any of his 19 starts this season, though he has spiked more than 28 fantasy points (DraftKings) three different times in 2016 and has the chops to return positive equity on his investment. Standing in the way are the Marlins, a team that is simply right now, having won three games in a row and seven of their last eight. Eickhoff has faced the Marlins once this season, giving up three runs and eight baserunners over six frames with four strikeouts – that seems like a reasonable baseline for tonight.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Urias | 0.363 | 5.67 | 0.266 | 0.781 | 0.365 | 3.57 | 0.271 | 0.00 | 27.3% | ||
| Strasburg | 0.250 | 2.49 | 0.287 | 3.54 | 0.247 | 0.732 | 0.289 | 2.86 | 0.215 | 0.01 | 30.2% |
| Tillman | 0.316 | 3.58 | 0.325 | 4.98 | 0.248 | 0.729 | 0.282 | 4.35 | 0.248 | 0.00 | 17.9% |
| Sabathia | 0.267 | 4.09 | 0.346 | 4.54 | 0.241 | 0.686 | 0.311 | 4.42 | 0.271 | 0.00 | 18.5% |
| Koehler | 0.342 | 4.52 | 0.317 | 4.07 | 0.244 | 0.686 | 0.299 | 4.46 | 0.259 | 0.00 | 17.3% |
| Eickhoff | 0.335 | 4.30 | 0.270 | 2.56 | 0.262 | 0.703 | 0.284 | 3.76 | 0.24 | 0.01 | 21.3% |
| Garza | 0.366 | 5.54 | 0.357 | 5.75 | 0.262 | 0.730 | 0.325 | 4.85 | 0.295 | 0.00 | 15.1% |
| Liriano | 0.288 | 3.46 | 0.309 | 4.13 | 0.238 | 0.693 | 0.294 | 3.88 | 0.232 | 0.00 | 24.3% |
| Duffey | 0.298 | 2.79 | 0.356 | 5.92 | 0.273 | 0.772 | 0.314 | 4.00 | 0.268 | 0.01 | 19.9% |
| Wright | 0.272 | 3.34 | 0.305 | 3.22 | 0.244 | 0.703 | 0.261 | 4.12 | 0.226 | 0.01 | 18.5% |
| Cashner | 0.368 | 5.11 | 0.318 | 4.02 | 0.264 | 0.763 | 0.322 | 4.19 | 0.272 | 0.00 | 19.7% |
| Wainwright | 0.303 | 4.13 | 0.291 | 3.34 | 0.239 | 0.683 | 0.306 | 3.14 | 0.256 | 0.01 | 18.3% |
| Pelfrey | 0.376 | 4.98 | 0.333 | 4.11 | 0.250 | 0.701 | 0.338 | 4.49 | 0.311 | 0.00 | 11.3% |
| Shields | 0.371 | 4.41 | 0.314 | 4.26 | 0.268 | 0.743 | 0.301 | 4.72 | 0.257 | 0.00 | 21.9% |
| Foltynewicz | 0.387 | 5.54 | 0.337 | 4.42 | 0.271 | 0.780 | 0.322 | 4.94 | 0.284 | 0.00 | 20.2% |
| Bettis | 0.324 | 4.54 | 0.355 | 5.19 | 0.250 | 0.673 | 0.328 | 4.01 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 18.6% |
| Moore | 0.314 | 5.51 | 0.343 | 4.42 | 0.256 | 0.721 | 0.305 | 4.67 | 0.27 | 0.01 | 18.6% |
| Gray | 0.277 | 2.79 | 0.303 | 4.20 | 0.241 | 0.703 | 0.273 | 3.82 | 0.234 | 0.00 | 19.3% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Steven Wright BOS (vs. MIN) – The knuckler hasn’t been dancing quite as seductively over Wright’s last few starts, as he has given up a 6.23 ERA and 20 hits (two homers) over his last 17.0 innings, along with six additional unearned runs that have crossed the plate. He also has a 3-1 record over that stretch, thanks to a ridiculous Red Sox offense that raises the floor of Wright’s likely point total. His K and walk rates look mighty similar to those that produced a 4.09 ERA last season, but thus far Wright has been able to trim the hits and slash the homers (from 1.5 HR/9 to an AL-leading 0.5 HR/9). I haven’t done any studies on the strength of regression’s pull on knuckleballers, but one gets the feeling that Wright is starting to feel the pull on regression’s side of the rope.
Sonny Gray OAK (vs. TB) – Gray entered the season with a similar profile to Wainwright, as a low-K starter who reliably kept runs off the scoreboard, and also like Wainwright, Gray has struggled mightily at times this season. The difference is that Gray hasn’t had any three-game stretch this season that can hold a candle to Waino’s last three turns, and though Gray has shown some longevity in the sense that he has thrown 6.0 or more frames in seven straight starts (6.0 innings on the nose in six in a row), two of those games involved five or more runs crossing the plate and only once has he struck out more than five batters (he struck out seven Brewers on June 21). Both the ceiling and floor of likely performance have been lowered drastically from Gray’s peak, with every stat on his baseball card trending in the wrong direction – the hits, homers and walks are way up (eight free passes over his last two games) while the strikeouts are down even below his modest norm. If there’s a bright side here, it’s that Fray is facing the meager offense of the Rays, but optimism is tempered by the fact that Tampa Bay scored six runs off of Gray the last time that they faced off (May 15).
Julio Urias LAD (at WAS) – Urias was pitching out of the bullpen down in Triple-A but will be recalled to make a spot-start today against the Nats. The Dodgers have treated him with kid gloves during his time in the majors, giving the teenager a restricted pitch count, and we can expect another pitch-limit somewhere in the vicinity of 80 throws for today’s game. The Dodgers did let the southpaw cross the 90-pitch threshold twice in his earlier stint with the big club, topping out at 100 pitches on June 28, and the fact that he has thrown just 22 pitches since Independence day gives him ample rest in case the Dodgers want to extend him in today’s game. That said, the club has made an active effort to limit his workload and that will likely continue. An abbreviated outing seriously dents his prospective fantasy stock, but Urias has tremendous upside if given a full load, as evidenced by a strikeout rate of 10.9 K/9 this season (27.3 percent). There is a lot of speculation if rostering Urias, but there’s an outside chance that the Dodgers lengthen the leash and Urias thrives, in which case he makes an intriguing – though risky – play on today’s incredibly-thin slate.
Matt Moore TB (at OAK) – Moore has a spotty track record, but if narrowing the lens of observation to only his most recent history, we can starts to see some progress emerge. He has a clean 2.00 ERA over the last four turns, averaging nearly seven innings per start, with just 21 hits and eight walks allowed. On the downside, he has allowed three homers and struck out just 14 batters in the 27 frames, opening up the can of worms that he has mostly survived due to good results on balls in play (.214 BABiP over this span). The lack of Ks are a warning flag, particularly the lone strikeout that he registered against the free-swinging Orioles in his last start. Oakland is not a high-strikeout team, with an 18.1-percent rate that is the lowest among the teams on tonight’s board, so Moore will need to continue his run-prevention magic in order to be a fantasy asset.
Francisco Liriano PIT (vs. MIL) – Believe it or not, Liriano has actually been serviceable over his last three starts, keeping the damage at three runs or less in each turn. Sure, his lack pitch efficiency has resulted in just 16 innings pitched and his 3.94 ERA over that stretch only stands tall against his previous level of ineptitude, but the Pirates will take what they can get. From a fantasy perspective, however, Liriano’s surprising lack of strikeouts during that stretch (just ten total) has still kept him at 12 points a game or under. He walks everything else he sees so the Ks are his only redeeming fantasy quality, so when the strikeouts are missing Liriano is a dumpster fire. The Brewers should add to the K total tonight, and the right mix of dirty sliders might just result in a huge K spike, but the southpaw also has to be careful of lefty-killers Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy.
James Shields CHW (vs. DET)
Andrew Cashner SD (at STL)
CC Sabathia NYY (vs. BAL)
Tom Koehler MIA (at PHI)
Mike Pelfrey DET (at CHW)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Mike Foltynewicz ATL (at COL)
Matt Garza MIL (at PIT)
Tyler Duffey MIN (at BOS)
Chad Bettis COL (vs. ATL)
NOTE: Button for pitcher salary chart above opens in popup window