Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Tuesday, April 19th

by Doug Thorburn (DougThorburn) Last Updated 2016-04-20 02:31:06

Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.

There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.

LEGEND

Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE

View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ

Daily Pitcher Chart

Pitcher	TM	OPP	IP	ERA	SIERA	WHIP	GEM%	K%	BB%	HR/9	G/F
Peralta	MIL	MIN	122	5.31	4.81	1.60	47.4%	13.0%	8.3%	1.33	1.72
Santana	MIN	MIL	123	3.88	4.30	1.30	38.9%	18.8%	7.9%	0.95	1.12
Miley	SEA	CLE	205.2	4.68	4.13	1.37	33.3%	18.3%	7.3%	0.83	1.56
Carrasco	CLE	SEA	196.2	3.62	2.76	1.07		29.3%	5.8%	0.96	1.68
Verrett	NYM	PHI	54.2	3.29	3.88	1.02		21.2%	8.3%	0.99	1.16
Velasquez	PHI	NYM
Surkamp	OAK	NYY	12.1	5.84	5.51	1.54		11.5%	9.8%	2.19	0.81
Pineda	NYY	OAK	171.2	4.51	3.13	1.24	75.0%	23.3%	3.4%	1.26	1.58
Stroman	TOR	BAL	48.1	2.79	3.51	0.97	66.7%	15.9%	6.4%	0.56	3.44
Wright	BAL	TOR	49.2	6.16	5.15	1.53		13.3%	8.4%	1.81	0.89
De La Rosa	COL	CIN	164.1	4.60	4.10	1.39	40.0%	21.5%	10.3%	1.15	1.81
Simon	CIN	COL	193.2	5.30	4.85	1.48	63.2%	14.6%	8.5%	1.21	1.27
Wood	LAD	ATL	201.2	3.88	4.21	1.36	58.3%	17.0%	7.5%	0.71	1.85
Teheran	ATL	LAD	217.2	4.22	4.27	1.32	70.0%	20.1%	8.8%	1.28	1.08
Smyly	TBR	BOS	80.1	3.36	3.16	1.11	50.0%	28.4%	6.7%	1.57	0.78
Kelly	BOS	TBR	142.1	5.12	4.28	1.52	40.0%	19.0%	9.0%	1.07	1.59
Strasburg	WAS	MIA	141	3.32	2.85	1.11	52.4%	28.9%	5.4%	0.89	1.32
Conley	MIA	WAS	74	3.77	3.84	1.28		22.6%	7.7%	0.85	0.94
Greene	DET	KCR	90.2	6.55	4.72	1.50	100.0%	14.3%	7.5%	1.29	1.36
Ventura	KCR	DET	174.1	3.98	3.78	1.30	44.4%	22.7%	9.1%	0.77	1.85
Feldman	HOU	TEX	118.2	3.87	4.45	1.33	47.1%	14.1%	6.2%	1.14	1.68
Holland	TEX	HOU	70.1	4.48	4.42	1.25		17.1%	7.2%	1.54	1.14
Shoemaker	LAA	CWS	144.1	4.55	4.07	1.27	44.4%	20.1%	6.7%	1.56	0.92
Latos	CWS	LAA	128.1	4.56	3.95	1.23	66.7%	19.7%	6.3%	0.91	1.27
Hammel	CHC	STL	182.2	3.55	3.54	1.17	47.4%	23.9%	6.2%	1.13	1.03
Garcia	STL	CHC	144.2	2.43	3.28	1.01	28.6%	20.5%	6.0%	0.37	2.71
Liriano	PIT	SDP	197.2	3.32	3.45	1.22	12.5%	26.5%	9.6%	0.73	1.98
Rea	SDP	PIT	43	4.60	4.32	1.37		19.4%	9.7%	0.84	1.57
Ray	ARI	SFG	140	3.47	4.19	1.34	33.3%	21.5%	9.7%	0.58	1.23
Cain	SFG	ARI	71.1	5.93	4.61	1.47	40.0%	16.1%	7.0%	1.64	0.86

ALL-IN:

The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.

Stephen Strasburg WAS (at MIA) – Stras rebounded quickly from the illness that caused him to skip a start last week, spinning 7.2 innings in a clean 100 pitches against the Braves and showing the pitch efficiency that has eluded the right-hander for most of his career. He’s tentatively back in the circle of trust, though his pair of merely solid starts against the Braves forms a relatively weak foundation to build the case that he deserves All-in status. I’m admittedly big on Strasburg this year and expect to see a high-strikeout performance approaching quickly on the horizon, but history tells us that he will be anything but predictable and carries with him the upside to dominate but the downside to sink your DFS battleship. Going All-in can be risky on an arm like Strasburg’s, but it’s a worthwhile play if the stakes are big enough.

RAISE:

The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.

Francisco Liriano PIT (at SD) – The Padres have some batters in their lineup who specialize in hitting southpaws, namely Matt Kemp (career SLG is 85 points higher against LHP) and Derek Norris (career SLG is 129 points higher against LHP), but with the exception of a three-game vacation in Colorado, the Padres offense has been on life support this season. Liriano might bring just the right mix to the table, however, because those two hitters have combined to go just 2-for-27 lifetime against the southpaw with 11 strikeouts and two walks. Liriano has been wild this season – even for him – with nine walks in 11.2 innings across two starts, and his volatility is exemplified by his track record thus far in 2016: six shutout frames against the mighty Cardinals with ten strikeouts, followed by three runs over five innings versus the bottom-feeding Reds.

Vincent Velasquez PHI (vs. NYM) – We can provide caveats all day long to describe Velasquez’s 16-strikeout performance against San Diego in his last turn, starting with the Padres penchant to make every pitcher look good, but when a pitcher dominates an opponent to that level it effectively opens the realm of possibilities. The right-hander shut down the Mets in his first start of the year, striking out nine batters over six non-scoring frames, but we will be given the chance to see if the Metropolitans makes some adjustments after getting a good look at VV and his simple approach, which consists of a steady diet of mid-90s fastballs as part of a simple two-pitch approach. The question then becomes if – and how – Velasquez changes his approach for round two.

Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against

Pitcher	wOBA vs L	ERA vs L	wOBA vs R	ERA vs R	AVG	OPS	BABIP	FIP	AVG-A	Pit/G	Strk%
Peralta	0.361	5.12	0.303	2.97	0.231	0.623	0.325	5.11	0.303	0.00	13.0%
Santana	0.332	4.02	0.296	3.39	0.232	0.650	0.290	4.01	0.25	0.01	18.8%
Miley	0.326	5.32	0.331	4.33	0.226	0.638	0.314	3.76	0.268	0.01	18.3%
Carrasco	0.236	2.51	0.271	3.25	0.234	0.660	0.299	2.95	0.226	0.01	29.3%
Verrett			0.243	4.01	0.207	0.567	0.221	3.97	0.193	0.01	21.2%
Velasquez					0.235	0.653
Surkamp	0.289	3.14	0.330	6.00	0.266	0.837	0.244	7.57	0.255	0.00	11.5%
Pineda	0.233	1.33	0.299	3.84	0.279	0.767	0.331	3.49	0.274	0.01	23.3%
Stroman	0.287	3.31	0.278	3.84	0.281	0.835	0.225	3.56	0.2	0.02	15.9%
Wright			0.361	6.56	0.235	0.718	0.294	6.11	0.285	0.00	13.3%
De La Rosa	0.241	2.47	0.332	4.37	0.224	0.668	0.294	4.33	0.247	0.01	21.5%
Simon	0.313	3.92	0.307	4.08	0.284	0.772	0.299	4.86	0.274	0.00	14.6%
Wood	0.299	2.09	0.318	3.68	0.238	0.682	0.313	3.74	0.269	0.01	17.0%
Teheran	0.301	3.31	0.260	2.71	0.275	0.876	0.285	4.52	0.248	0.01	20.1%
Smyly	0.216	2.54	0.331	3.63	0.200	0.701	0.268	3.94	0.22	0.02	28.4%
Kelly	0.318	3.60	0.342	5.56	0.235	0.684	0.329	4.35	0.28	0.01	19.0%
Strasburg	0.287	2.75	0.307	3.81	0.261	0.676	0.308	2.79	0.231	0.01	28.9%
Conley			0.308	3.92	0.221	0.751	0.311	3.56	0.251	0.01	22.6%
Greene	0.345	3.63	0.313	4.68	0.311	0.817	0.317	4.93	0.292	0.00	14.3%
Ventura	0.288	2.68	0.306	3.49	0.291	0.803	0.301	3.63	0.241	0.01	22.7%
Feldman	0.314	2.78	0.336	4.82	0.193	0.559	0.294	4.38	0.273	0.01	14.1%
Holland			0.325	3.32	0.223	0.673	0.268	5.03	0.251	0.01	17.1%
Shoemaker	0.308	3.34	0.305	3.31	0.256	0.679	0.282	4.62	0.253	0.01	20.1%
Latos	0.271	2.57	0.302	4.10	0.227	0.624	0.290	3.64	0.247	0.01	19.7%
Hammel	0.305	3.09	0.303	4.11	0.279	0.762	0.285	3.66	0.235	0.01	23.9%
Garcia			0.256	2.44	0.287	0.766	0.260	2.83	0.212	0.01	20.5%
Liriano	0.331	4.20	0.285	3.29	0.309	0.801	0.292	3.27	0.221	0.01	26.5%
Rea			0.331	3.86	0.234	0.642	0.294	4.06	0.247	0.02	19.4%
Ray			0.346	4.63	0.254	0.682	0.306	3.57	0.244	0.01	21.5%
Cain	0.329	4.29	0.330	4.17	0.256	0.693	0.31	5.16	0.286	0.00	16.1%

CALL:

Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.

Michael Pineda NYY (vs. OAK) – Rostering Pineda is not for the faint of heart. His excellent KLBB ratio of 156:21 last season gives the false impression that he controls the strike zone, but the relative lack of command is revealed by the fact that he also surrendered 21 homers and carried a 4.37 ERA in his 160 innings last season. 2016 has started much the same way, as the Pinata gave up six runs over five innings against the Astros in his debut despite walking zero batters and striking out five. His first two opponents have been against potential playoff teams in Houston and Toronto, but he gets a breather this time around with a home matchup against the non-threatening lineup of the Athletics.

Marcus Stroman TOR (at BAL) – Today offers a dice-roll of a slate, with a laundry list of strong pitchers who are facing thick lineups, making for rough sailing in the top half of the Call Section. Stroman hits both extremes, as a great pitcher who is facing a ridiculously powerful offense. Through 11 games, the Orioles are slugging an incredible .540 as a team, a trend that represents an over-the-fence lineup and a ballpark that promotes homers to batters from both sides of the plate. Stroman is an impressive pitcher with killer arm-side movement on his fastball, but his approach is one that favors weak contact over strikeouts and which theoretically limits his upside in fantasy circles.

Drew Smyly TB (at BOS) – The range of outcomes here covers the gamut from high-K dominance to quick exit. The flyball-loving Smyly will run the risk of crooked numbers in Fenway Park, where modest flies to left field result in extra-base hits, putting the left-handed Smyly at the mercy of pull-happy platoon bats. He struck out 11 Indians in his last start and he cleared double-digit Ks in three of his 12 turns last season, so he provides a vaulted ceiling that is full of leaks. Smyly carried a modest strikeout rate of 8.4 K/9 through 2014 but has upped the ante to 10.4 K/9 over the last two seasons, however the restricted sample size of 14 starts adds another layer to the onion of intrigue. He gave up three home runs against the Blue Jays in his first start and none against Cleveland, but the Red Sox have an offense that falls closer to the Toronto end of the spectrum.

Yordano Ventura KC (vs. DET) – Ventura walked six Twins in his first outing of the year, a performance that exemplified his volatility in a start against one of the weakest offenses of the young 2016 season. He was very fortunate to get away with just two runs allowed, but the poor pitch efficiency brought him to 98 pitches while recording just 15 outs. He had a stronger turn in his next start, going six frames against the Astros with one run allowed, but his three walks allowed were still on the high side of the ledger. He could be in for another long day against the Tigers, whose powerful offense will test the fences at Kauffman Stadium and the defense behind Ventura.

Jaime Garcia STL (vs. CHC) – Garcia twirled a masterpiece against the Brewers in his last turn, tossing a shutout with 13 strikeouts, allowing just two baserunners and needing just 104 pitches to complete the nine-inning gem. Before we get too excited, however, we need to go back just one more start to see the downside, as Garcia coughed up four runs with three walks over six innings against the light-hitting Braves. The likely result of today’s performance is much closer to the Braves game than the gem against the Brewers, as Garcia has whiffed seven or fewer batters in 34 of his 38 starts since 2013, and the 13-K performance represented a career best that is unlikely to be repeated against one of the top offenses in the National League.

Julio Teheran ATL (vs. LAD) – Teheran has not been himself in 2016, but the same could be said for the entirety of last season, and one wonders if his stellar 2014 season was in fact the aberration. He’s a had a tough schedule thus far, facing the Nationals twice and the Cardinals once, and things won’t get any easier today against Dodgers, but much of Teheran’s struggles have been his own doing, including seven walks allowed in the first two games, four homers given up this season and a major-league-leading four wild pitches. He currently lacks the stability to harness the natural power in his delivery, and his resulting lack of command opens up the sinkhole of possibilities. Teheran will likely make for a solid play later in the season, but right now he is not to be trusted.

Alex Wood LAD (at ATL)

Mat Latos CHW (vs. LAA)

Derek Holland TEX (vs. HOU)

Logan Verrett NYM (at PHI)

Adam Conley MIA (vs. WAS)

Robbie Ray ARI (at SF)

Matt Cain SF (vs. ARI) – Cain had a solid first start and was actually cruising for the first four frames in Colorado, but then the high-altitude sickness set in, and by the time the bleeding of the nine-run fifth inning was over, Cain had a typical Coors line with six runs on his ledger with just 4.2 innings pitched. He represents a significant gamble, but it might just be a risk worth taking if the price is right.

Jason Hammel CHC (at STL)

Joe Kelly BOS (vs. TB)

Scott Feldman HOU (at TEX)

Matt Shoemaker LAA (at CHW)

Shane Greene DET (at KC)

Jorge de la Rosa COL (at CIN)

Colin Rea SD (vs. PIT)