Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, August 17th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Happ | TOR | NYY | 315 | 3.31 | 3.96 | 1.21 | 30.8% | 21.3% | 6.8% | 0.89 | 1.21 |
| Sabathia | NYY | TOR | 291.2 | 4.51 | 4.33 | 1.41 | 25.0% | 18.5% | 7.9% | 1.30 | 1.41 |
| Friedrich | SDP | TBR | 145.2 | 5.00 | 4.62 | 1.58 | 16.7% | 9.3% | 0.86 | 1.41 | |
| Archer | TBR | SDP | 361.2 | 3.71 | 3.28 | 1.21 | 55.0% | 28.4% | 8.0% | 1.05 | 1.35 |
| Martinez | STL | HOU | 317 | 3.15 | 3.75 | 1.26 | 22.3% | 8.5% | 0.68 | 2.14 | |
| Fister | HOU | STL | 245 | 3.86 | 4.70 | 1.33 | 58.3% | 14.9% | 6.9% | 1.14 | 1.31 |
| Strasburg | WAS | COL | 271 | 3.25 | 2.96 | 1.07 | 52.4% | 30.2% | 6.1% | 0.96 | 1.09 |
| Gray | COL | WAS | 163.1 | 4.79 | 3.79 | 1.33 | 24.2% | 8.0% | 1.05 | 1.37 | |
| Cain | SFG | PIT | 139.2 | 5.61 | 4.76 | 1.54 | 40.0% | 16.4% | 7.6% | 1.74 | 0.94 |
| Price | BOS | BAL | 384 | 3.23 | 3.37 | 1.16 | 52.4% | 24.8% | 5.3% | 0.87 | 1.28 |
| Tillman | BAL | BOS | 324 | 4.28 | 4.56 | 1.31 | 42.9% | 18.2% | 8.6% | 1.03 | 1.18 |
| Kazmir | LAD | PHI | 310.2 | 3.65 | 4.04 | 1.24 | 63.2% | 21.9% | 8.0% | 1.16 | 1.14 |
| Thompson | PHI | LAD | |||||||||
| Ventura | KCR | DET | 296.1 | 4.31 | 4.15 | 1.32 | 44.4% | 20.3% | 8.9% | 1.00 | 1.72 |
| Sanchez | DET | KCR | 269.2 | 5.54 | 4.23 | 1.41 | 41.2% | 20.7% | 8.2% | 1.74 | 0.98 |
| Ranaudo | CWS | CLE | 25.2 | 8.06 | 6.37 | 1.64 | 13.3% | 16.7% | 1.75 | 0.69 | |
| Carrasco | CLE | CWS | 293 | 3.47 | 3.10 | 1.08 | 27.4% | 6.2% | 1.08 | 1.61 | |
| Cashner | MIA | CIN | 280.1 | 4.59 | 4.18 | 1.44 | 75.0% | 19.9% | 8.3% | 1.09 | 1.51 |
| Bailey | CIN | MIA | 26 | 4.85 | 3.93 | 1.54 | 31.6% | 21.1% | 7.9% | 1.04 | 1.86 |
| Gibson | MIN | ATL | 286.2 | 4.24 | 4.27 | 1.37 | 52.6% | 17.1% | 7.9% | 0.94 | 1.92 |
| Foltynewicz | ATL | MIN | 170.2 | 5.12 | 4.32 | 1.46 | 19.3% | 7.2% | 1.63 | 0.92 | |
| Nelson | MIL | CHC | 314.1 | 4.09 | 4.43 | 1.37 | 18.8% | 9.5% | 1.00 | 1.69 | |
| Lester | CHC | MIL | 346.1 | 3.17 | 3.39 | 1.11 | 65.0% | 24.8% | 6.2% | 0.91 | 1.54 |
| Manaea | OAK | TEX | 104.1 | 4.57 | 4.20 | 1.29 | 19.8% | 6.4% | 1.47 | 1.16 | |
| Darvish | TEX | OAK | 52 | 2.77 | 2.90 | 1.04 | 55.6% | 31.9% | 6.2% | 1.21 | 1.10 |
| Niese | NYM | ARI | 292.2 | 4.55 | 4.41 | 1.47 | 41.2% | 15.1% | 7.6% | 1.32 | 2.05 |
| Godley | ARI | NYM | 81.1 | 4.32 | 4.11 | 1.32 | 20.0% | 8.7% | 1.11 | 1.70 | |
| Wieland | SEA | LAA | 13.2 | 9.22 | 5.22 | 1.76 | 11.1% | 7.9% | 1.98 | 1.47 | |
| Skaggs | LAA | SEA | 22.2 | 4.37 | 4.02 | 1.46 | 37.5% | 22.2% | 7.1% | 1.19 | 1.13 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Yu Darvish TEX (vs. OAK) – Nine starts. It took only nine starts before Darvish was given the All-In crown. The innings count has been mounting, and though pitch control and command are often the last things to return for a pitcher following major elbow surgery, Darvish has been greatly limiting the walks recently with just three free passes given away over his last five games covering 32.0 innings. Walks have always been the biggest knock against Darvish, and the newfound efficiency may have convinced the Rangers to finally extend his leash – Darvish was held under 95 pitches for each of his first eight starts, but in start no. 9 he was allowed to go 107 pitches deep, 13 more throws than he had made in any game this season. His strikeouts have matched or exceeded his innings in all but one start this season, that being his most recent outing with five Ks over 6.2 frames against the Tigers. There are several interesting arms on today’s slate, each with his own warts, but Darvish is the only one that combines an easy opponent, electric recent performance and the K-related upside to lap the field in fantasy points.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Jon Lester CHC (vs. MIL) – The left-hander went through a few rough patches during July, but his last three starts have been vintage Lester: a 1.89 ERA and 21:3 K:BB in 19.0 innings, with a 2-0 record to show for his work. The first two games were interleague games against Oakland and Seattle, but in his last turn, Lester limited the rival Cardinals to two runs on five hits and one walk over six frames, including six strikeouts on the day. Lester was a 2.00-ERA pitcher for his first three months and 13 starts of the 2016 season, a quality start machine that was credited with a QS in 14 of his first 16 starts this season, coming one out shy of another and getting sent to the showers in the third inning of the one outlier. He earned just two QS out of five starts in July, but he has already matched that QS total in August.
Carlos Carrasco CLE (vs. CHW) – The right-hander is starting to get back on track following a run of six consecutive turns since the start of July with six or fewer strikeouts. He has thrown quality starts in each of his last two turns, allowing three runs in exactly 7.0 frames in each outing, totaling 17 strikeouts in 14 innings. The K count has reached eight or higher in each of the two contests, but his huge 14-K gem against the Blue Jays at the end of June is the only time that Carrasco has whiffed double-digit hitters in any game this season. The homers have been an issue all season, with 17 homers given up in 18 starts, though he has a tendency to give up just one blast (10 times in 18 starts). He’s facing a White Sox team that swings by the seat of their pants, with multiple threats to leave the yard yet few weapons when the ball doesn’t reach the fence.
Chris Archer TB (vs. SD) – Archer takes his AL-leading K rate of 10.6 K/9 to face one of the three most trigger-happy lineups in the game today, raising his ceiling to atmospheric levels with the possibility of a large K count. He gave up five runs over six frames against the Yankees in his last turn, but his fantasy statline was saved by nine strikeouts and no walks. Prior to that game, Archer had a four-start run with a collective 2.39 ERA and 32:6 K:BB in 26.1 innings, a streak of starts that actually began with 11 whiffs in Coors Field. The strikeouts have generally been a savior to Archer’s fantasy score, allowing him to post 15 or more points on DraftKings in his last six starts (and eight of nine).
Carlos Martinez STL (at HOU) – Like Archer, CarMart is on the early part of today’s slate, making him available in only the Early or All-Day tournament formats. Also like Archer, Martinez is playing against one of the most whiff-happy lineups in baseball, taking on the Astros head-to-head and a Houston offense that ranks second in baseball in total batter strikeouts, just one ahead of the Padres. From May 30 to July 26, Martinez had a string of 10 consecutive tarts with three or fewer runs allowed, but that has been the floor of his last three turns, with a 6.50 ERA and a disastrous 13:9 K:BB over 18.0 innings of work, including a seven-run (six earned) start against the hapless Braves two turns ago (he even gave up two homers to the majors’ worst over-the-fence lineup..
J.A. Happ TOR (at NYY) -Happ is on one hell of a run. We all know the relative worthlessness of won-loss record, a generally unpredictable stat that nonetheless plays a big role in hitting maximum fantasy points or voting for the Cy Young award. He’ll be going for his MLB-leading 17th win in today’s game against the Yankees, and his recent level of domination suggests that the big W is well within his grasp. Happ has been a wrecking ball over his last four starts, with just two earned runs (0.72 ERA) and a 30:10 K:BB over 25 innings, including a pristine 4-0 record over that stretch.He has stifled a range of different offenses so far in 2017, and the Yankees should pose little immediate risk to Happ’s statline.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Happ | 0.295 | 3.25 | 0.297 | 3.33 | 0.256 | 0.731 | 0.294 | 3.57 | 0.245 | 0.00 | 21.3% |
| Sabathia | 0.265 | 3.88 | 0.348 | 4.66 | 0.268 | 0.793 | 0.305 | 4.57 | 0.268 | 0.00 | 18.5% |
| Friedrich | 0.303 | 4.53 | 0.351 | 5.23 | 0.258 | 0.754 | 0.330 | 4.20 | 0.285 | 0.00 | 16.7% |
| Archer | 0.283 | 3.70 | 0.298 | 3.72 | 0.238 | 0.684 | 0.300 | 3.32 | 0.228 | 0.00 | 28.4% |
| Martinez | 0.329 | 3.82 | 0.259 | 2.49 | 0.249 | 0.741 | 0.299 | 3.48 | 0.239 | 0.00 | 22.3% |
| Fister | 0.345 | 4.44 | 0.303 | 3.20 | 0.261 | 0.760 | 0.289 | 4.52 | 0.266 | 0.00 | 14.9% |
| Strasburg | 0.255 | 2.78 | 0.294 | 3.75 | 0.271 | 0.782 | 0.293 | 2.88 | 0.218 | 0.01 | 30.2% |
| Gray | 0.311 | 4.20 | 0.334 | 5.36 | 0.249 | 0.726 | 0.321 | 3.81 | 0.255 | 0.00 | 24.2% |
| Nova | 0.371 | 4.83 | 0.326 | 4.89 | 0.262 | 0.734 | 0.295 | 4.93 | 0.272 | 0.00 | 16.4% |
| Cain | 0.400 | 6.20 | 0.360 | 5.15 | 0.259 | 0.725 | 0.317 | 5.40 | 0.292 | 0.00 | 16.4% |
| Price | 0.296 | 2.81 | 0.290 | 3.38 | 0.238 | 0.674 | 0.309 | 3.08 | 0.245 | 0.00 | 24.8% |
| Tillman | 0.309 | 3.49 | 0.330 | 5.02 | 0.272 | 0.772 | 0.285 | 4.27 | 0.249 | 0.00 | 18.2% |
| Kazmir | 0.302 | 3.95 | 0.306 | 3.54 | 0.251 | 0.675 | 0.278 | 4.13 | 0.235 | 0.00 | 21.9% |
| Thompson | 0.250 | 0.740 | |||||||||
| Ventura | 0.315 | 5.04 | 0.306 | 3.59 | 0.268 | 0.746 | 0.289 | 4.13 | 0.244 | 0.00 | 20.3% |
| Sanchez | 0.322 | 4.71 | 0.375 | 6.48 | 0.264 | 0.719 | 0.301 | 4.95 | 0.267 | 0.00 | 20.7% |
| Ranaudo | 0.288 | 6.91 | 0.427 | 9.53 | 0.256 | 0.744 | 0.218 | 6.88 | 0.222 | 0.00 | 13.3% |
| Carrasco | 0.296 | 3.24 | 0.279 | 3.66 | 0.251 | 0.703 | 0.285 | 3.33 | 0.224 | 0.01 | 27.4% |
| Cashner | 0.379 | 5.33 | 0.310 | 3.98 | 0.249 | 0.709 | 0.323 | 4.20 | 0.272 | 0.00 | 19.9% |
| Bailey | 0.277 | 4.00 | 0.263 | 0.706 | 0.368 | 4.06 | 0.301 | 0.00 | 21.1% | ||
| Gibson | 0.332 | 4.64 | 0.303 | 3.84 | 0.253 | 0.683 | 0.300 | 4.14 | 0.263 | 0.00 | 17.1% |
| Foltynewicz | 0.386 | 5.76 | 0.335 | 4.61 | 0.248 | 0.717 | 0.320 | 4.90 | 0.283 | 0.00 | 19.3% |
| Nelson | 0.362 | 5.24 | 0.291 | 3.18 | 0.249 | 0.741 | 0.291 | 4.45 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 18.8% |
| Lester | 0.278 | 3.12 | 0.288 | 3.19 | 0.245 | 0.714 | 0.287 | 3.29 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 24.8% |
| Manaea | 0.232 | 2.28 | 0.356 | 5.24 | 0.260 | 0.743 | 0.296 | 4.48 | 0.262 | 0.01 | 19.8% |
| Darvish | 0.265 | 3.24 | 0.286 | 2.33 | 0.249 | 0.703 | 0.279 | 3.12 | 0.209 | 0.04 | 31.9% |
| Niese | 0.358 | 3.78 | 0.346 | 4.78 | 0.268 | 0.774 | 0.306 | 4.84 | 0.281 | 0.00 | 15.1% |
| Godley | 0.294 | 3.93 | 0.336 | 4.63 | 0.239 | 0.704 | 0.291 | 4.37 | 0.249 | 0.01 | 20.0% |
| Wieland | 0.255 | 0.718 | 0.333 | 6.06 | 0.328 | 0.00 | 11.1% | ||||
| Skaggs | 0.338 | 4.24 | 0.258 | 0.738 | 0.343 | 3.85 | 0.283 | 0.06 | 22.2% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Stephen Strasburg WAS (at COL) – Stras has been a regular in the All-In throne this season, but the combination of Coors Field and lackluster performance of late has conspired to knock him all the way down into Call territory. Stras had a perfect 13-0 record up through July 15, and with multiple games remaining against the Braves and Phillies he looked like the frontrunner for the NL Cy Young award. But in his five starts since. Stras has given up a 5.28 ERA, coughing up four or more runs in three of those games, though his Ks have remained an asset with 38 punchouts in 29 innings. The last gave was the worst, giving up six runs over 5.1 innings, and compounding the issue is that his opponent was none other than the Braves, a start that was supposed to pad his numbers rather than taint them. Strasburg has actually pitched pretty well at Coors Field in his career (small sample alert), maintaining a 3.44 ERA across three starts, with 18 strikeouts against four walks in 18.1 innings.
David Price BOS (at BAL) – Price is typically a default Raise candidate, and it typically takes exceptional circumstances to knock him off that tier. But something’s gotta give here, as Price currently leads the majors in hits allowed and his outstanding start are too few and far between while the blowups seem to be getting more frequent. The Orioles are a boom-or-bust offense that could just as easily tag Price for six runs as they could be the victims of his run for a no-hitter. Given that he has given up double-digit hits in three of his last six games has me betting on the former. The numbers for Price since the All-Star break are decidedly unimpressive, including a 4.12 ERA, 27:10 K:BB and a whopping 52 hits allowed in 39.1 innings since the Midsummer Classic.
Scott Kazmir LAD (at PHI) – The Phillies are already one of the worst offenses in baseball, but they get even worse when a southpaw is on the mound. The batting average and OBP are nearly identical against right- and left-handed pitchers, but the Phils lose 45 points of slugging percentage versus lefties. Kazmir has been a much easier target this season than he was the past few, and though he has more than a strikeout per inning this season, all of his numbers have been known to bounce all over the scoresheet. In his last eight games, Kazmir has walked zero batters four times and yet walked three or more hitters in each of the four other turns. His success tonight is in his own hands.
Tyler Skaggs LAA (vs. SEA)
Jon Gray COL (vs. WAS)
Dylan Bundy BAL (vs. BOS)
Sean Manaea OAK (at TEX)
Yordano Ventura KC (at DET)
Ivan Nova PIT (at SF)
Mike Foltynewicz ATL (vs. MIN)
Doug Fister HOU (vs. STL)
CC Sabathia NYY (vs. TOR)
Kyle Gibson MIN (at ATL)
Andrew Cashner MIA (at CIN)
Anibal Sanchez DET (vs. KC)
Christian Friedrich SD (at TB)
Anthony Ranaudo CHW (at CLE)
Zack Godley ARI (vs. NYM)
Cody Martin SEA (at LAA) – Martin spent most of the year in the bullpen, and though he got up to 66 pitches in his Triple-A tuneup to the rotation, stacking against him is essentially stacking against the Mariners bullpen – doing so is a fine strategy, as the M’s have a decent bullpen but it still gives up a composite 4.25 runs per game, with higher ERA’s the further you get from the ninth inning..
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Jon Niese NYM (at ARI)
Jimmy Nelson MIL (at CHC) – The inevitable regression that was looming over his first-half stats has hit with a vengeance. Now he visits Wrigley, where the Cubs will look to finish the job.
Matt Cain SF (vs. PIT)
Jake Thompson PHI (vs. LAD)
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