Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, July 8th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside, so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game, so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find a needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimenez | BAL | MIN | 219.2 | 4.02 | 4.09 | 1.39 | 27.8% | 22.1% | 11.2% | 0.90 | 1.32 |
| Milone | MIN | BAL | 177.2 | 3.80 | 4.56 | 1.36 | 43.8% | 15.0% | 7.4% | 1.22 | 1.02 |
| Teheran | ATL | MIL | 322.2 | 3.43 | 3.87 | 1.18 | 70.0% | 20.0% | 6.6% | 1.00 | 0.89 |
| Fiers | MIL | ATL | 165.2 | 3.10 | 3.41 | 1.18 | 25.0% | 7.6% | 0.92 | 0.85 | |
| Sanchez | DET | SEA | 238.1 | 4.00 | 3.67 | 1.12 | 41.2% | 20.8% | 6.4% | 0.83 | 1.20 |
| Happ | SEA | DET | 249.2 | 4.11 | 3.92 | 1.33 | 30.8% | 19.4% | 6.9% | 1.08 | 1.10 |
| deGrom | NYM | SFG | 246 | 2.52 | 3.16 | 1.07 | 50.0% | 25.1% | 6.4% | 0.55 | 1.33 |
| Peavy | SFG | NYM | 216.2 | 3.90 | 4.17 | 1.30 | 42.1% | 18.5% | 7.8% | 1.04 | 0.91 |
| Lorenzen | CIN | WAS | 65.1 | 3.58 | 5.21 | 1.47 | 14.9% | 12.4% | 1.65 | 1.22 | |
| Gonzalez | WAS | CIN | 247.1 | 3.78 | 3.54 | 1.28 | 46.7% | 23.2% | 8.6% | 0.51 | 1.59 |
| Cashner | SDP | PIT | 225.1 | 3.24 | 3.72 | 1.25 | 75.0% | 19.6% | 6.5% | 0.80 | 1.49 |
| Morton | PIT | SDP | 203.1 | 3.85 | 3.73 | 1.27 | 50.0% | 17.6% | 8.0% | 0.58 | 2.71 |
| Kazmir | OAK | NYY | 288.2 | 3.21 | 3.62 | 1.15 | 63.2% | 21.8% | 7.1% | 0.72 | 1.24 |
| Sabathia | NYY | OAK | 141 | 5.49 | 3.39 | 1.43 | 25.0% | 21.1% | 4.5% | 1.85 | 1.36 |
| Straily | HOU | CLE | 56.2 | 6.83 | 4.18 | 1.52 | 14.3% | 21.3% | 10.6% | 1.75 | 0.77 |
| Bauer | CLE | HOU | 250.1 | 4.06 | 4.00 | 1.33 | 38.5% | 22.1% | 9.6% | 0.97 | 0.85 |
| Koehler | MIA | BOS | 283.1 | 3.72 | 4.21 | 1.28 | 52.6% | 18.5% | 8.6% | 0.89 | 1.15 |
| Porcello | BOS | MIA | 299.1 | 4.27 | 3.91 | 1.29 | 55.6% | 16.3% | 5.0% | 1.02 | 1.51 |
| Wacha | STL | CHC | 208.1 | 2.94 | 3.71 | 1.14 | 53.3% | 20.2% | 6.5% | 0.56 | 1.35 |
| Hammel | CHC | STL | 279 | 3.26 | 3.33 | 1.06 | 47.4% | 23.4% | 5.5% | 1.10 | 1.01 |
| Hellickson | ARI | TEX | 154.1 | 4.84 | 3.97 | 1.39 | 19.3% | 6.8% | 1.22 | 1.01 | |
| Harrison | TEX | ARI | 17.1 | 4.15 | 5.61 | 1.85 | 25.0% | 11.9% | 14.3% | 0.52 | 1.81 |
| Hutchison | TOR | CHW | 277.2 | 4.73 | 3.66 | 1.33 | 31.6% | 22.5% | 7.4% | 1.07 | 0.90 |
| Danks | CHW | TOR | 281 | 4.80 | 4.58 | 1.44 | 50.0% | 15.3% | 7.9% | 1.25 | 1.03 |
| Archer | TBR | KCR | 310.1 | 2.90 | 3.32 | 1.16 | 55.0% | 24.7% | 7.9% | 0.61 | 1.50 |
| Guthrie | KCR | TBR | 292.1 | 4.53 | 4.52 | 1.35 | 42.1% | 13.6% | 5.8% | 1.08 | 1.10 |
| Shoemaker | LAA | COL | 220.1 | 3.76 | 3.43 | 1.14 | 44.4% | 21.7% | 4.8% | 1.23 | 1.00 |
| Rusin | COL | LAA | 59 | 4.88 | 4.10 | 1.58 | 15.0% | 7.1% | 1.07 | 1.84 | |
| Morgan | PHI | LAD | 12.2 | 2.13 | 3.97 | 1.18 | 21.6% | 7.8% | 2.13 | 0.71 | |
| Kershaw | LAD | PHI | 312.1 | 2.25 | 2.17 | 0.92 | 66.7% | 32.1% | 4.8% | 0.58 | 1.86 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (vs. PHI) – Another start, another dip in his ERA. The run prevention metric is down to 3.08 for Kershaw this season, bringing him one step closer to the norm that he has established over the past several seasons, but he would need an Orel Hershiser streak to approach 2.00 and his own teammate (Zack Greinke with a 1.48 ERA) is standing in the way between Kershaw and a fifth consecutive ERA title. There is a wide gap between Kershaw and the next-best option tonight, a chasm that is carved by his skill level as well as his light-hitting opponent, and the southpaw’s price tag will likely reflect that disparity.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Chris Archer TB (at KC) – Archer has gone through stretches of dominance and vulnerability this season, though the former has dominated his game log thanks to a heat-seeking fastball and deadly slider. These pitches that have fueled a ludicrous K rate of 31.2 percent, up by 10 percentage points from last season. His ability to miss bats will be tested against the Royals, a team that puts the ball in play more often than any other club in the game; KC has the fewest batter strikeouts (by 74) and the fewest walks (by one) in the major leagues.
Michael Wacha STL (at CHC) – The right-hander was keeping runs off the scoreboard the old fashioned way for the first month of the season, but he has added strikeouts to his repertoire with 45 punchouts in 43.7 innings over his last seven starts. The Cubs are the anti-Royals in terms of batter K’s (they lead the NL with 756 strikeouts), and Wacha had no problem handling the division rivals 11 days ago with 6.0 innings with five K’s and one run allowed. The only problem is that Wacha’s run prevention has been inversely correlated with his K rate this season, as the three times that he has whiffed seven or more batters recently are also the only games in which he hallowed four or more runs.
Jason Hammel CHC (vs. STL) – In a season that is packed with breakout performances, the incredible performance of the 32-year old Hammel might just be the most surprising of all. The right-hander is striking out a batter per frame and has walked just 18 batters (three of which were intentional) in 102.7 innings. Tonight’s matchup with Wacha is less intimidating than St. Louis’ 54-30 record, as the redbirds have averaged less than four runs per game this season, but the onus is on Hammel to avoid the second-half fade the plagued him last season.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimenez | 0.327 | 4.36 | 0.302 | 3.58 | 0.247 | 0.688 | 0.295 | 4.05 | 0.24 | 93.24 | 22.1% |
| Milone | 0.273 | 3.27 | 0.344 | 3.97 | 0.274 | 0.737 | 0.282 | 4.63 | 0.261 | 90.72 | 15.0% |
| Teheran | 0.328 | 3.86 | 0.280 | 3.04 | 0.259 | 0.707 | 0.281 | 3.83 | 0.242 | 98.00 | 20.0% |
| Fiers | 0.299 | 3.17 | 0.286 | 3.03 | 0.263 | 0.700 | 0.289 | 3.37 | 0.229 | 88.45 | 25.0% |
| Sanchez | 0.267 | 3.18 | 0.309 | 5.10 | 0.226 | 0.663 | 0.269 | 3.45 | 0.227 | 98.87 | 20.8% |
| Happ | 0.352 | 3.98 | 0.322 | 4.15 | 0.274 | 0.778 | 0.307 | 3.95 | 0.264 | 91.78 | 19.4% |
| deGrom | 0.284 | 2.51 | 0.242 | 2.54 | 0.270 | 0.747 | 0.282 | 2.71 | 0.218 | 101.16 | 25.1% |
| Peavy | 0.333 | 4.49 | 0.322 | 3.34 | 0.231 | 0.644 | 0.290 | 4.18 | 0.253 | 99.34 | 18.5% |
| Lorenzen | 0.413 | 4.70 | 0.309 | 2.98 | 0.258 | 0.731 | 0.257 | 5.89 | 0.249 | 84.69 | 14.9% |
| Gonzalez | 0.283 | 3.75 | 0.310 | 3.79 | 0.248 | 0.737 | 0.313 | 3.08 | 0.243 | 96.45 | 23.2% |
| Cashner | 0.338 | 4.19 | 0.273 | 2.43 | 0.260 | 0.705 | 0.296 | 3.49 | 0.25 | 96.72 | 19.6% |
| Morton | 0.313 | 3.99 | 0.306 | 3.72 | 0.241 | 0.668 | 0.293 | 3.81 | 0.247 | 94.18 | 17.6% |
| Kazmir | 0.286 | 3.09 | 0.283 | 3.25 | 0.246 | 0.743 | 0.278 | 3.31 | 0.228 | 94.25 | 21.8% |
| Sabathia | 0.222 | 4.99 | 0.400 | 5.63 | 0.238 | 0.671 | 0.338 | 4.64 | 0.295 | 95.04 | 21.1% |
| Straily | 0.340 | 4.99 | 0.391 | 9.00 | 0.246 | 0.707 | 0.300 | 5.28 | 0.262 | 64.87 | 21.3% |
| Bauer | 0.307 | 4.33 | 0.323 | 3.81 | 0.243 | 0.740 | 0.294 | 4.02 | 0.241 | 99.33 | 22.1% |
| Koehler | 0.304 | 3.67 | 0.314 | 3.77 | 0.263 | 0.734 | 0.282 | 4.03 | 0.243 | 90.79 | 18.5% |
| Porcello | 0.329 | 3.87 | 0.323 | 4.77 | 0.249 | 0.667 | 0.307 | 3.97 | 0.274 | 94.90 | 16.3% |
| Wacha | 0.265 | 3.07 | 0.291 | 2.81 | 0.237 | 0.690 | 0.277 | 3.17 | 0.228 | 92.71 | 20.2% |
| Hammel | 0.297 | 2.68 | 0.280 | 3.70 | 0.269 | 0.735 | 0.266 | 3.62 | 0.223 | 94.39 | 23.4% |
| Hellickson | 0.319 | 4.58 | 0.353 | 5.08 | 0.256 | 0.735 | 0.311 | 4.14 | 0.269 | 93.10 | 19.3% |
| Harrison | 0.268 | 2.70 | 0.375 | 4.50 | 0.269 | 0.735 | 0.317 | 4.98 | 0.282 | 85.75 | 11.9% |
| Hutchison | 0.336 | 5.53 | 0.314 | 3.78 | 0.247 | 0.677 | 0.313 | 3.80 | 0.257 | 94.73 | 22.5% |
| Danks | 0.309 | 4.14 | 0.365 | 5.03 | 0.309 | 0.875 | 0.297 | 4.74 | 0.272 | 100.70 | 15.3% |
| Archer | 0.271 | 2.71 | 0.280 | 3.14 | 0.272 | 0.733 | 0.287 | 3.04 | 0.223 | 99.24 | 24.7% |
| Guthrie | 0.376 | 6.00 | 0.273 | 2.84 | 0.236 | 0.663 | 0.299 | 4.44 | 0.276 | 98.00 | 13.6% |
| Shoemaker | 0.318 | 4.21 | 0.297 | 3.26 | 0.269 | 0.762 | 0.286 | 3.78 | 0.246 | 80.02 | 21.7% |
| Rusin | 0.353 | 4.58 | 0.366 | 5.01 | 0.246 | 0.708 | 0.335 | 4.30 | 0.3 | 77.75 | 15.0% |
| Morgan | 0.340 | 0.00 | 0.348 | 3.00 | 0.248 | 0.704 | 0.242 | 5.38 | 0.234 | 88.00 | 21.6% |
| Kershaw | 0.238 | 2.07 | 0.249 | 2.30 | 0.263 | 0.706 | 0.286 | 2.08 | 0.202 | 101.16 | 32.1% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Gio Gonzalez WAS (vs. CIN) – Gio is off-kilter this season, with his lowest strikeout rate (20.5 percent) paired with his highest hit rate (24.7 percent) in the last five years. He has started to right the ship in recent weeks, allowing two runs or fewer while pitching a minimum of 6.0 innings in four of his last five starts, though the outlier was a 10-out, five-run, 13-baserunner blowup against the Rays on June 15th. The Reds hit Gonzalez up for four runs in 5.3 frames at the end of May, just before he kicked off the effective run, so it will be interesting to see if Gio is as vulnerable the second time around.
Andrew Cashner SD (at PIT) – The velocity on his sinker is higher than ever, pumping high-octane gas at an average of 95.7 mph, but the pitch has been tattooed in 2015 with opposing hitters posting a .345 average and .529 slug against the pitch including six homers. If you’re into silver linings, then I suppose that the last two starts have offered a glimmer of hope for Cashner with a combined three runs allowed, but he surrendered between four and seven runs in each of five starts that preceded his mini-streak of success.
Trevor Bauer CLE (vs. HOU) – For the first two months of the 2015 campaign, all Bauer did was rack up the strikeouts with 65 K’s in his first 63.6 innings of the season. Things got dicey in June, and since the calendar flipped he has a 5.61 ERA and has maxed out with seven strikeouts in a game. Houston hitters should help with Bauer’s strikeouts though they could easily inflate his ERA, which has been getting pumped up for the last month and is on the brink of cracking 4.00. The Astros are fifth in baseball with 4.51 runs scored per game, and though the offense recently lost George Springer to a wrist injury, they have also received an infusion of young talent from the system over the past month and have responded with an impressive 5.56 tallies per contest over their last 25 games.
Scott Kazmir OAK (at NYY) – The narrative will suggest that he’s pitching as a showcase for his future ballclub in anticipation of a trade, but that assumes that the A’s are ready to sell at the halfway point of the season despite having a plus-50 run differential. Kazmir’s 5-5 record belies the lowest ERA (2.56) and WHIP (1.119) of his career and the southpaw has been stingy with deep flies, surrendering just seven homers in 98.3 innings this season as he continues to improve what was once a big weakness in his game.
Drew Hutchison TOR (at CHW) – The right-hander’s career ERA now stands at 4.71 through 336.3 innings, and though his FIP (3.71) continues to best his ERA (5.23) by a significant margin, that discrepancy has been a part of his pitching line in each of his three big-league seasons. As yet another example of why won-loss record is a poor indicator of pitcher performance, Hutchison has posted a record of 8-2 this season thanks to the almighty offense of the Blue Jays, this despite his giving up four or more earnies in eight of his 17 starts this year.
CC Sabathia NYY (vs. OAK) – It’s past time to admit that CC is not the ace that the Yankees purchased six years ago, and in fact that pitcher has been missing since 2012. In the three years since, Sabathia has a 5.06 ERA across 352.0 frames, keeping the bases occupied with runners to the tune of a 1.392 WHIP. His velocity has fallen off of a cliff, dropping four mph in the past four years at a gradual rate of about one tick per season, though his 2015 pitch speed is at least on part with last season’s velo.The southpaw has been easily hittable, and the only thing going for him in tonight’s matchup is that the Oakland offense has struggled against left-handers this season, with an OPS that’s 62 points lower and an ISO that loses .032 with a portsider on the mound.
Dan Straily HOU (at CLE)
Rick Porcello BOS (vs. MIA)
Charlie Morton PIT (vs. SD)
Jeremy Hellickson ARI (at TEX)
Tom Koehler MIA (at BOS)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Matt Shoemaker LAA (at COL)
Jeremy Guthrie KC (vs. TB)
Michael Lorenzen CIN (at WAS)
Adam Morgan PHI (at LAD)
Chris Rusin COL (vs. LAA)
Matt Harrison TEX (vs. ARI)
John Danks CHW (vs. TOR)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
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