Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, June 17th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andriese | TBR | WAS | 26.1 | 3.76 | 3.63 | 1.48 | 15.3% | 5.1% | 1.03 | 2.27 | |
| Zimmermann | WAS | TBR | 276.2 | 2.96 | 3.46 | 1.16 | 52.6% | 20.8% | 4.2% | 0.52 | 1.11 |
| Jimenez | BAL | PHI | 193 | 4.24 | 4.25 | 1.44 | 27.8% | 21.7% | 12.0% | 0.93 | 1.33 |
| Correia | PHI | BAL | 159.2 | 5.24 | 4.69 | 1.48 | 45.0% | 11.7% | 5.8% | 1.13 | 1.16 |
| Urena | MIA | NYY | 26.1 | 4.44 | 4.28 | 1.25 | 11.3% | 5.7% | 1.03 | 2.09 | |
| Pineda | NYY | MIA | 151 | 2.80 | 3.05 | 1.03 | 75.0% | 22.7% | 2.7% | 0.72 | 1.29 |
| Niese | NYM | TOR | 257.2 | 3.63 | 3.82 | 1.33 | 41.2% | 16.9% | 5.9% | 0.91 | 1.81 |
| Hutchison | TOR | NYM | 256.2 | 4.84 | 3.66 | 1.31 | 31.6% | 22.4% | 7.3% | 1.16 | 0.91 |
| Price | DET | CIN | 340.2 | 3.04 | 2.94 | 1.09 | 52.4% | 25.5% | 4.2% | 0.82 | 1.04 |
| Cueto | CIN | DET | 329 | 2.41 | 3.14 | 0.96 | 76.2% | 25.0% | 6.1% | 0.85 | 1.28 |
| Wada | CHC | CLE | 91.2 | 3.63 | 3.82 | 1.29 | 20.9% | 7.2% | 1.08 | 0.93 | |
| Marcum | CLE | CHC | 33 | 4.09 | 3.70 | 1.09 | 23.1% | 7.7% | 1.91 | 0.78 | |
| Kelly | BOS | ATL | 162.1 | 4.71 | 4.24 | 1.38 | 40.0% | 17.1% | 9.6% | 0.83 | 1.97 |
| Wood | ATL | BOS | 245 | 3.01 | 3.47 | 1.23 | 58.3% | 22.1% | 6.8% | 0.73 | 1.38 |
| Locke | PIT | CHW | 199.1 | 4.24 | 4.13 | 1.35 | 66.7% | 16.5% | 7.8% | 1.04 | 1.75 |
| Danks | CHW | PIT | 261.2 | 4.85 | 4.60 | 1.46 | 50.0% | 15.4% | 8.2% | 1.20 | 1.05 |
| Martinez | STL | MIN | 163 | 3.53 | 3.43 | 1.34 | 23.6% | 9.8% | 0.66 | 2.04 | |
| Milone | MIN | STL | 152.2 | 4.19 | 4.65 | 1.39 | 43.8% | 14.4% | 7.5% | 1.41 | 0.99 |
| Fiers | MIL | KCR | 140.2 | 3.07 | 3.18 | 1.19 | 26.8% | 7.2% | 1.02 | 0.82 | |
| Blanton | KCR | MIL | 15 | 1.80 | 3.14 | 1.13 | 21.0% | 4.8% | 0.60 | 1.33 | |
| Oberholtzer | HOU | COL | 163.2 | 4.12 | 4.32 | 1.39 | 41.7% | 15.1% | 5.2% | 0.66 | 0.95 |
| Kendrick | COL | HOU | 278.2 | 4.97 | 4.63 | 1.37 | 30.0% | 13.3% | 6.8% | 1.32 | 1.21 |
| Santiago | LAA | ARI | 203.2 | 3.31 | 4.31 | 1.29 | 16.7% | 20.5% | 9.4% | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| Anderson | ARI | LAA | 187.2 | 3.55 | 3.89 | 1.28 | 40.0% | 19.7% | 7.2% | 0.91 | 1.23 |
| Despaigne | SDP | OAK | 158 | 3.76 | 4.19 | 1.23 | 100.0% | 14.7% | 6.7% | 0.80 | 1.79 |
| Chavez | OAK | SDP | 217.2 | 3.18 | 3.67 | 1.25 | 52.6% | 21.5% | 7.4% | 0.83 | 1.16 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | SEA | 302.2 | 3.03 | 3.09 | 1.10 | 47.6% | 24.4% | 4.8% | 0.92 | 1.21 |
| Hernandez | SEA | SFG | 318.2 | 2.46 | 2.62 | 0.95 | 81.0% | 26.7% | 5.7% | 0.73 | 2.27 |
| Rodriguez | TEX | LAD | 86 | 4.19 | 4.11 | 1.34 | 18.5% | 7.8% | 1.47 | 1.28 | |
| Kershaw | LAD | TEX | 285.1 | 2.21 | 2.17 | 0.92 | 66.7% | 32.0% | 4.8% | 0.54 | 1.89 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
After two days that were bereft of All-In worthy arms, today we are treated with a full slate of night games and a smorgasbord of high-end options. The opposite end of the spectrum is also fully loaded, giving enough stacking options to satiate a kid in a Pringles store.
Clayton Kershaw LAD (vs. TEX) – Kershaw spent six weeks battling single-inning struggles that would tarnish his overall line on a game-to-game basis. His ERA stood at 4.32 on May 25, but the southpaw has since staged a four-start run of dominance that brought his season mark for run prevention down to a 3.21 ERA. He had three games of double-digit strikeouts out of those four starts and is setup for another dominant performance today against the Rangers. Kersh carries the torch that lights the way to a pitcher holding velocity over time – his 94.2 mph average on his 2015 fastball is within a hair of the 94.4 mph that he averaged in his rookie season of ’08.
Felix Hernandez SEA (vs. SF) – Felix is in a bit of a funk, coming off the worst start of his career (8 runs allowed and just a single out generated) against the Astros, and the King has 11 strikeouts yet 10 walks allowed over his last 12.0 innings pitched. He has surrendered 16 earned runs in that span, and the extra free passes have led to his highest walk rate (7.7 percent) since ’08. Things have been looking bleak lately, but his issues are related to command more than raw stuff – the velocity is in line with previous seasons, but his tendency to miss arm-side has been exploited since the calendar flipped to June. I’m more optimistic than the general view, and his recent struggles might create the opportunity to roster Felix at a discounted price while other managers are looking the other way.
David Price DET (at CIN) – Whereas blow-up starts are a new phenomenon for Kershaw and Hernandez, it seems that Price endures a rough path each season. The good news is that Price’s rocky road is in the rearview, and that he has tossed his two highest-scoring games of the season in his most recent starts (especially in games that give bonuses for complete-game shutouts). He has more four-run games this season (three) than those with double-digit punch-outs (two), but optimism is stoked by the fact that his big-K games have come in two of his last five turns.
Madison Bumgarner SF (at SEA) – The second half of May was relatively unexciting from a statistical standpoint, as Bumgarner threw 6.0 or more innings without striking out more than six batters in four consecutive turns to finish the month. The strikeouts rebounded with 11 whiffs against the Phillies two starts ago, but the five-spot of runs that he allowed against baseball’s worst offense raised an eyebrow. He was able to tame the wild offense of the Diamondbacks in his last start and this time draws a weak Mariners club, where the attention will be on the mound as Bummer faces off against Felix head-to-head for just the second time in his career.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Michael Pineda NYY (vs. MIA) – The stars were aligned for Pineda to dominate the Orioles in his last start, but instead he gave up 11 baserunners (including nine hits) and six runs without escaping the fifth frame. He has walked six batters in his last four turns, which is a point in his favor, yet to the total feels high when compared to the meager count of three batters that Pineda walked in his first 51.7 innings this season. He’s given up five or more runs in three of his last five games, raising his ERA on the season to a 3.74 mark that fails to encapsulate his relative success this season.
Jordan Zimmermann WAS (vs. TB) – The K rate has dropped down to pre-2014 levels but Zimm has been very consistent, with 10 quality starts in his 13 turns on the year. Two of the three misses have come in his most recent pair of starts, and the fact that Zimm has not had a game with more than seven punch-outs this season effectively caps the upside of his performance. He draws a relatively easy opponent for today’s game, but enthusiasm is tempered by the subpar outings that he had against the Cubs and Brewers in his last two games.
Johnny Cueto CIN (vs. DET) – The Tigers are intimidating to any arm, let alone one who recently experienced discomfort in his throwing elbow. The Tigers weren’t quite as menacing in May, but they have heated up with the weather over the last couple of weeks. Cueto faces the tallest task among the eight pitchers on board for All-in or Raise consideration, and his recent injury scares conspire with his formidable opponent to push him down the ranks among today’s starting pitchers.
Carlos Martinez STL (at MIN) – Martinez looks out of control when he pitches, with considerable flail in his delivery that exaggerates near release point, after which he falls off violently to the first-base side. With such an unrestrained motion often comes volatile performance, but Martinez has done exactly the opposite lately for over a month – since he gave up seven earnies in back-to-back games of early May, Martinez has spun six consecutive starts without giving up more than two runs in a contest. The walks are still higher than one would want, coming in at 10.5 percent of batters faced this season, and such a high rate of free passes builds a cloud of doubt above his recent run of success.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andriese | 0.393 | 5.68 | 0.280 | 1.98 | 0.251 | 0.725 | 0.333 | 4.01 | 0.297 | 54.38 | 15.3% |
| Zimmermann | 0.309 | 3.22 | 0.267 | 2.72 | 0.238 | 0.670 | 0.313 | 2.78 | 0.255 | 91.64 | 20.8% |
| Jimenez | 0.339 | 4.66 | 0.301 | 3.76 | 0.233 | 0.624 | 0.295 | 4.26 | 0.241 | 92.14 | 21.7% |
| Correia | 0.361 | 4.78 | 0.346 | 5.76 | 0.254 | 0.723 | 0.314 | 4.58 | 0.295 | 0.00 | 11.7% |
| Urena | 0.322 | 4.35 | 0.330 | 4.50 | 0.257 | 0.746 | 0.286 | 4.47 | 0.273 | 67.83 | 11.3% |
| Pineda | 0.278 | 2.41 | 0.278 | 3.18 | 0.255 | 0.664 | 0.292 | 2.67 | 0.239 | 92.52 | 22.7% |
| Niese | 0.297 | 3.69 | 0.338 | 3.61 | 0.308 | 0.863 | 0.308 | 3.86 | 0.269 | 93.02 | 16.9% |
| Hutchison | 0.337 | 5.64 | 0.310 | 3.85 | 0.241 | 0.666 | 0.304 | 3.94 | 0.253 | 94.24 | 22.4% |
| Price | 0.288 | 2.71 | 0.280 | 3.15 | 0.255 | 0.758 | 0.302 | 2.81 | 0.237 | 108.47 | 25.5% |
| Cueto | 0.248 | 1.99 | 0.274 | 2.80 | 0.275 | 0.742 | 0.243 | 3.26 | 0.197 | 106.35 | 25.0% |
| Wada | 0.293 | 2.08 | 0.340 | 4.00 | 0.258 | 0.731 | 0.300 | 3.96 | 0.254 | 84.94 | 20.9% |
| Marcum | 0.382 | 5.51 | 0.210 | 2.70 | 0.240 | 0.708 | 0.232 | 5.04 | 0.218 | 84.83 | 23.1% |
| Kelly | 0.298 | 3.71 | 0.332 | 5.82 | 0.264 | 0.715 | 0.285 | 4.23 | 0.248 | 94.48 | 17.1% |
| Wood | 0.290 | 1.96 | 0.305 | 3.35 | 0.229 | 0.664 | 0.311 | 3.28 | 0.251 | 82.02 | 22.1% |
| Locke | 0.272 | 3.50 | 0.339 | 4.45 | 0.211 | 0.542 | 0.294 | 4.30 | 0.262 | 94.24 | 16.5% |
| Danks | 0.311 | 4.24 | 0.368 | 5.07 | 0.245 | 0.670 | 0.301 | 4.72 | 0.274 | 0.00 | 15.4% |
| Martinez | 0.342 | 4.44 | 0.272 | 2.80 | 0.239 | 0.660 | 0.314 | 3.42 | 0.244 | 36.80 | 23.6% |
| Milone | 0.298 | 3.25 | 0.348 | 4.47 | 0.228 | 0.666 | 0.280 | 4.99 | 0.264 | 89.25 | 14.4% |
| Fiers | 0.296 | 3.15 | 0.302 | 3.00 | 0.262 | 0.711 | 0.298 | 3.34 | 0.232 | 86.52 | 26.8% |
| Blanton | 0.288 | 2.08 | 0.272 | 1.42 | 0.245 | 0.679 | 0.289 | 2.84 | 0.237 | 33.29 | 21.0% |
| Oberholtzer | 0.325 | 3.69 | 0.327 | 4.26 | 0.258 | 0.677 | 0.325 | 3.51 | 0.285 | 92.25 | 15.1% |
| Kendrick | 0.377 | 5.57 | 0.322 | 4.54 | 0.233 | 0.716 | 0.285 | 4.95 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 13.3% |
| Santiago | 0.249 | 2.14 | 0.324 | 3.79 | 0.269 | 0.721 | 0.274 | 4.29 | 0.235 | 83.21 | 20.5% |
| Anderson | 0.306 | 3.46 | 0.333 | 3.62 | 0.243 | 0.689 | 0.303 | 3.82 | 0.256 | 92.52 | 19.7% |
| Despaigne | 0.320 | 3.15 | 0.290 | 4.30 | 0.264 | 0.732 | 0.271 | 4.08 | 0.245 | 87.72 | 14.7% |
| Chavez | 0.293 | 2.82 | 0.301 | 3.61 | 0.244 | 0.674 | 0.300 | 3.53 | 0.246 | 75.85 | 21.5% |
| Bumgarner | 0.237 | 1.65 | 0.301 | 3.38 | 0.256 | 0.723 | 0.294 | 3.17 | 0.237 | 101.63 | 24.4% |
| Hernandez | 0.250 | 1.98 | 0.258 | 3.05 | 0.270 | 0.742 | 0.256 | 2.87 | 0.2 | 99.26 | 26.7% |
| Rodriguez | 0.358 | 5.00 | 0.327 | 3.97 | 0.242 | 0.673 | 0.279 | 4.74 | 0.252 | 92.88 | 18.5% |
| Kershaw | 0.235 | 1.98 | 0.247 | 2.26 | 0.245 | 0.714 | 0.286 | 2.05 | 0.201 | 100.90 | 32.0% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL (at PHI) – The enthusiasm that was spurred by Ubaldo’s first month of action this season has been summarily crushed, as he has posted a pedestrian 3.79 ERA since his first two starts of the season, but the progress that he made is demonstrated by the fact that he has walked more than two hitters just three times in 12 games this season, and just once has he walked more than three batters. He gets to toy with the Phillies today, giving Ubaldo an opportunity to rekindle some excitement among the Baltimore faithful.
Alex Wood ATL (vs. BOS) – The four walks that Wood gave up to the Mets in his last start were the most that he has given up in a game this season, an impressive display of strike-zone control for a pitcher whose delivery inspires visions wayward projectiles, but the bigger mystery is his disappearing K rate – Wood has punched out just 16.9 percent of batters this season, and with three starts of one or zero K’s, he carries the risk of a low-point effort against a Boston offense that has yet to hit its stride this season.
Mike Fiers MIL (at KC) – Fiers has been particularly inconsistent this season, and his one asset – a random shot at a high K count – is mitigated by a Royals offense that puts the ball in play more than any other team in the game.
Chase Anderson ARI (vs. LAA) – Anderson just keeps on cranking along with a modest K rate, average fastball velocity, and a standard fastball-curveball-change repertoire. It might not be the sexiest profile, but it’s hard to argue with the results, as Anderson has allowed two runs or fewer in 7 of his 8 starts dating back to the start of May. The Angels have clout, but it’s concentrated in the lumber of just a couple of hitters, and Anderson’s performance today will likely hinge on his ability to keep Mike Trout and Albert Pujols at bay.
Jesse Chavez OAK (vs. SD)
Tsuyoshi Wada CHC (at CLE)
Hector Santiago LAA (at ARI)
Wandy Rodriguez TEX (at LAD)
Odrisamer Despaigne SD (at OAK)
Drew Hutchison TOR (vs. NYM)
Jeff Locke PIT (at CHW)
Shaun Marcum CLE (vs. CHC)
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Joe Kelly BOS (at ATL)
Tommy Milone MIN (vs. STL)
Matt Andriese TB (at WAS)
Joe Blanton KC (vs. MIL)
Jose Urena MIA (at NYY)
Brett Oberholtzer HOU (at COL)
Jon Niese NYM (at TOR)
John Danks CHW (vs. PIT)
Kevin Correia PHI (vs. BAL)
Kyle Kendrick COL (vs. HOU)
Starting Pitcher Salaries
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