Daily Pitcher Breakdown: Wednesday, June 8th
Welcome to the Daily Pitcher Breakdown, where we study the blueprints for each day’s matchups and dive into the details of each pitcher’s unique profile. We’ll lay all the cards on the table and let the strength of each hand determine whether we want to commit our chips. For each player, we consider opponents, splits, stuff, mechanics, and recent performance.
There will also be a contingent of the starters that you can ignore each day. They offer no discernible upside so they aren’t worth your time. Because it is baseball and a 162-game season, there are going to be times when guys from the ignore group go off, but we’re dealing with probabilities in the daily game so the goal is to give yourself the best odds for success, not find needle in the proverbial haystack that finally doesn’t poke you.
LEGEND
Stats Shown in Red Are BELOW AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Yellow are AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Green Are ABOVE AVERAGE
Stats Shown in Blue Are ELITE
View descriptions of stats below and Legend FAQ
Daily Pitcher Chart
| Pitcher | TM | OPP | IP | ERA | SIERA | WHIP | GEM% | K% | BB% | HR/9 | G/F |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lackey | CHC | PHI | 293 | 2.80 | 3.78 | 1.15 | 57.9% | 21.2% | 6.1% | 0.86 | 1.33 |
| Velasquez | PHI | CHC | 117 | 4.00 | 3.59 | 1.27 | 26.9% | 8.8% | 1.00 | 0.73 | |
| Dickey | TOR | DET | 287 | 3.98 | 4.74 | 1.22 | 47.6% | 15.0% | 7.5% | 1.07 | 1.21 |
| Zimmermann | DET | TOR | 268 | 3.39 | 3.97 | 1.19 | 52.6% | 18.8% | 4.7% | 1.01 | 1.17 |
| Teheran | ATL | SDP | 274.2 | 3.74 | 4.14 | 1.24 | 70.0% | 21.0% | 8.3% | 1.21 | 1.09 |
| Pomeranz | SDP | ATL | 151 | 3.04 | 3.71 | 1.13 | 25.0% | 25.7% | 10.0% | 0.72 | 1.22 |
| Odorizzi | TBR | ARI | 237 | 3.34 | 3.97 | 1.14 | 36.8% | 21.3% | 6.8% | 1.03 | 0.93 |
| Bradley | ARI | TBR | 59.1 | 5.46 | 4.73 | 1.53 | 18.3% | 12.6% | 0.76 | 2.04 | |
| Volquez | KCR | BAL | 274 | 3.68 | 4.35 | 1.34 | 50.0% | 18.3% | 8.5% | 0.79 | 1.46 |
| Tillman | BAL | KCR | 243.1 | 4.51 | 4.55 | 1.33 | 42.9% | 18.2% | 9.1% | 1.07 | 1.18 |
| Weaver | LAA | NYY | 223.1 | 4.80 | 4.92 | 1.30 | 52.4% | 13.7% | 5.2% | 1.53 | 0.71 |
| Eovaldi | NYY | LAA | 220.1 | 4.17 | 3.86 | 1.38 | 50.0% | 19.3% | 6.9% | 0.74 | 1.92 |
| Syndergaard | NYM | PIT | 220.2 | 2.81 | 2.72 | 1.02 | 29.2% | 4.7% | 0.94 | 1.59 | |
| Taillon | PIT | NYM | |||||||||
| Garcia | STL | CIN | 194.1 | 2.78 | 3.48 | 1.11 | 28.6% | 19.9% | 6.9% | 0.42 | 2.81 |
| Simon | CIN | STL | 234.1 | 5.84 | 4.90 | 1.54 | 63.2% | 14.3% | 8.5% | 1.38 | 1.33 |
| Fister | HOU | TEX | 169.2 | 3.93 | 4.62 | 1.34 | 58.3% | 14.1% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 1.44 |
| Darvish | TEX | HOU | 10.2 | 3.38 | 2.82 | 1.03 | 55.6% | 27.9% | 4.7% | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Chen | MIA | MIN | 257 | 3.57 | 3.99 | 1.22 | 31.6% | 19.6% | 5.4% | 1.26 | 1.04 |
| Nolasco | MIN | MIA | 103 | 5.59 | 3.85 | 1.41 | 16.7% | 21.2% | 5.8% | 1.05 | 1.16 |
| Hahn | OAK | MIL | 127.2 | 4.02 | 4.27 | 1.28 | 57.1% | 14.6% | 7.0% | 0.78 | 2.32 |
| Anderson | MIL | OAK | 212.1 | 4.41 | 4.27 | 1.29 | 40.0% | 17.8% | 6.3% | 1.31 | 1.14 |
| Scherzer | WAS | CWS | 310 | 3.08 | 2.74 | 0.96 | 60.0% | 30.8% | 4.7% | 1.25 | 0.77 |
| Shields | CWS | WAS | 269.2 | 4.00 | 3.88 | 1.36 | 42.9% | 23.9% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 1.36 |
| Carrasco | CLE | SEA | 210.2 | 3.55 | 2.86 | 1.08 | 28.4% | 5.9% | 0.98 | 1.71 | |
| Walker | SEA | CLE | 229 | 4.40 | 3.76 | 1.21 | 21.7% | 5.7% | 1.45 | 1.08 | |
| Rusin | COL | LAD | 180.1 | 5.14 | 4.21 | 1.55 | 15.2% | 7.1% | 1.05 | 2.17 | |
| Maeda | LAD | COL | 63.1 | 2.84 | 3.97 | 1.07 | 22.1% | 7.5% | 0.71 | 1.22 | |
| Price | BOS | SFG | 296 | 3.07 | 3.31 | 1.12 | 52.4% | 25.6% | 5.7% | 0.76 | 1.15 |
| Bumgarner | SFG | BOS | 298.1 | 2.65 | 3.08 | 1.03 | 47.6% | 27.3% | 5.3% | 0.81 | 1.14 |
ALL-IN:
The aces that are worth pushing all of the chips into the middle of the table.
Jeez, almost every stud is on the road and four of them have difficult matchups.
Noah Syndergaard NYM (at PIT) – Apart from the ejection against the Dodgers for “accidentally” uncorking one behind Chase Utley, Thor has finished at least 7 IP in four straight starts, allowing no more than 2 ER in any of them with 36 Ks in the 29 IP of work. The Pirates have been a good offensive team this year, but I’d probably use Thor against the AL All-Stars if they lowered his price a little bit. By the way, he had some road woes in his rookie season last year, but that hasn’t been an issue this year: 1.85 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, and 5.3 K:BB in 34 IP.
Madison Bumgarner SF (BOS) – How come no one is talking about MadBum this year? OK, besides his wanting to be in the Home Run Derby. He has a 1.91 ERA, a run lower than his 2015 mark, and he’s added a full strikeout, sitting at 10.6 K/9. The walks up a bit, too, but his 2.7 BB/9 is still solid. He’s been virtually untouchable at home: 1.74 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 46 Ks in 41.3 IP. The Red Sox offense is straight fire regardless of venue, though against lefties they drop from 1st at home to 12th on the road. Honestly, I’m more concerned about his win potential being curbed by his offense facing David Price than I am him facing the Red Sox offense. Bumgarner is matchup-proof, especially at home, though I know some will run away because of the powerful Red Sox offense. Maybe the whole game is a pass so you can just enjoy ace v. ace instead of hoping to garner a W from Bumgarner or this guy…
David Price BOS (at SF) – If Price storms back and wins the Cy Young, he’ll probably give it to Dustin Pedroia. His second baseman noticed a mechanical issue wherein Price wasn’t getting his hands up in the delivery, leaving his stuff flat and eminently hittable (6.75 ERA through his first seven starts). Since that fix, Price has a 2.62 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 34.4 IP with 31 Ks. That run includes trips to KC and TOR as well HOU and TOR at home. The Giants are no joke at home against lefties. They’re actually second to the Red Sox in OPS at .883. That’s not really enough to dissuade me from Price, though. He’s pitching way better than his 4.88 ERA.
Max Scherzer WAS (at CWS) – The White Sox haven’t leveraged their home ballpark much this year. It carries a positive park factor for homers, but they have just a .136 ISO and 19 HRs against righties at home, sitting 25th in both categories. That makes me feel a bit more comfortable about throwing Scherzer in a HR-friendly ballpark. The longball has been part of Scherzer’s game for most of his career, but he had them in check for 2013, 2014, and the start of 2015 which elevated him to arguably the game’s 2nd-best pitcher to only Clayton Kershaw. Since the start of last August, he has a 4.6% HR rate, worsted by only Hector Santiago (a flat 5%) and tied with known HR-allower, Josh Tomlin. It speaks to how good Scherzer is that he still has a 3.88 ERA in that span and the elite strikeout upside is always enticing, but on a day with some premium options, I’m comfortably staying away from Mad Max because I’ll be Mad Paul when he allows bombs to Brett Lawrie and Todd Frazier.
RAISE:
The value plays, next-tier players that can compete with the aces on any given gameday but who probably won’t cost an arm and a glove.
Yu Darvish TEX (HOU) – He’s not in the All-In category just yet because he’s still on pitch, likely around 90-95. He might need this one and another (maybe two after this one) to get the reins off and start logging 100+ pitches regularly. The beauty of Darvish is that he can do more with 90-95 pitches than many can do with no limits, but he still hasn’t gone six in a start yet and it’s just too hard to confidently use a guy in an A-lineup when you he’s almost certainly maxing out around 6 innings.
Carlos Carrasco CLE (at SEA) – Carrasco was solid-if-unspectacular in his return from a hamstring injury, but I want to see at least 2-3 starts before moving him back into the All-In tier. Like Darvish, he will likely be facing a loose pitch count around 90 or so after throwing 53 in his rehab outing and 78 in the MLB return. There’s also the fact that the Seattle Mariners offense has been strong this year, especially at home. They are clubbing homers at a 4.5% clip against righties at home, good for third in baseball, and their .808 OPS is sixth. There will be better spots for Carrasco in the near future.
Kenta Maeda LAD (COL) – Maeda went through a little lull in mid-May with three straight 4 ER outings, each lasting 4-5 IP, but he’s gotten back on track with a pair of solid starts in his last two. On the whole, Maeda’s debut has been really impressive: 2.84 ERA and 1.07 WHIP with 8 Ks per nine. The Rockies are in full collapse on the road against lefties (dead last since May 1st), but they’ve held up against righties sitting 9th in OPS on the road in that same time period. Maeda handled them in Coors back in April (6.3 IP/0 ER). His lack of a platoon split certainly helps, making that all-lefty outfield a lot less problematic. Only two teams have seen him twice this year. He was better the second time around vs. the Mets while the Padres got to him a bit for one bad inning in the second start after he cut ‘em up for six scoreless in his MLB debut. One thing lost in the quality ratios of Maeda is that he doesn’t really go deep into games. He has finished seven innings just once and has seen the seventh inning at all just once since April.
Jaime Garcia STL (at CIN) – Garcia got off to a brilliant start this year with a 2.58 ERA in his first seven starts, but he’s hit a lull recently with a 5.59 in his last four (which even includes a 7 IP/2 ER gem). Just a lull or his annual injury? I hate to default to that with Garcia, but his injury history is so extensive that you’d be fooling yourself if you didn’t at least consider it. If you split his season as first seven and last four, there is a velo decline, but it’s only about a half MPH so not really the danger zone right now. He uses his elite groundball rate (61%) to drive his success, but he’s added strikeouts this year and upped his fantasy appeal. When on, he’s efficient and goes deep into games (4 starts of 7+ IP), but his 9% walk rate is the highest since 2010 and has been a problem in his worst starts. He’s walked 3+ in six starts.
Pitcher Advanced Stats and Stats Against
| Pitcher | wOBA vs L | ERA vs L | wOBA vs R | ERA vs R | AVG | OPS | BABIP | FIP | AVG-A | Pit/G | Strk% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lackey | 0.316 | 2.83 | 0.267 | 2.77 | 0.242 | 0.674 | 0.287 | 3.47 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 21.2% |
| Velasquez | 0.298 | 3.48 | 0.326 | 4.58 | 0.249 | 0.739 | 0.313 | 3.51 | 0.24 | 0.01 | 26.9% |
| Dickey | 0.305 | 3.93 | 0.314 | 4.02 | 0.268 | 0.741 | 0.259 | 4.50 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 15.0% |
| Zimmermann | 0.316 | 3.57 | 0.279 | 3.22 | 0.259 | 0.777 | 0.295 | 3.71 | 0.256 | 0.00 | 18.8% |
| Teheran | 0.376 | 5.16 | 0.247 | 2.59 | 0.239 | 0.675 | 0.274 | 4.31 | 0.236 | 0.00 | 21.0% |
| Pomeranz | 0.208 | 1.82 | 0.288 | 3.63 | 0.226 | 0.620 | 0.251 | 3.35 | 0.195 | 0.00 | 25.7% |
| Odorizzi | 0.262 | 2.60 | 0.327 | 4.17 | 0.265 | 0.740 | 0.266 | 3.74 | 0.227 | 0.01 | 21.3% |
| Bradley | 0.310 | 3.58 | 0.356 | 7.76 | 0.243 | 0.704 | 0.303 | 4.38 | 0.254 | 0.00 | 18.3% |
| Volquez | 0.300 | 3.29 | 0.316 | 4.08 | 0.258 | 0.764 | 0.295 | 3.89 | 0.252 | 0.00 | 18.3% |
| Tillman | 0.312 | 3.44 | 0.334 | 5.61 | 0.269 | 0.737 | 0.283 | 4.38 | 0.249 | 0.00 | 18.2% |
| Weaver | 0.341 | 4.39 | 0.346 | 5.18 | 0.244 | 0.728 | 0.285 | 5.04 | 0.274 | 0.00 | 13.7% |
| Eovaldi | 0.351 | 4.87 | 0.281 | 3.64 | 0.254 | 0.717 | 0.327 | 3.47 | 0.273 | 0.01 | 19.3% |
| Syndergaard | 0.288 | 3.19 | 0.249 | 2.48 | 0.266 | 0.740 | 0.291 | 2.78 | 0.221 | 0.01 | 29.2% |
| Taillon | 0.242 | 0.713 | |||||||||
| Garcia | 0.265 | 2.85 | 0.259 | 2.76 | 0.249 | 0.715 | 0.272 | 3.05 | 0.223 | 0.01 | 19.9% |
| Simon | 0.382 | 5.65 | 0.344 | 6.07 | 0.264 | 0.754 | 0.307 | 5.20 | 0.284 | 0.00 | 14.3% |
| Fister | 0.343 | 4.22 | 0.318 | 3.60 | 0.259 | 0.739 | 0.289 | 4.68 | 0.269 | 0.00 | 14.1% |
| Darvish | 0.246 | 0.742 | 0.310 | 1.44 | 0.22 | 0.14 | 27.9% | ||||
| Chen | 0.249 | 2.45 | 0.339 | 3.90 | 0.254 | 0.716 | 0.291 | 4.07 | 0.256 | 0.00 | 19.6% |
| Nolasco | 0.323 | 5.17 | 0.348 | 5.95 | 0.258 | 0.694 | 0.341 | 3.61 | 0.283 | 0.00 | 21.2% |
| Hahn | 0.349 | 5.34 | 0.256 | 2.82 | 0.254 | 0.712 | 0.283 | 4.10 | 0.254 | 0.01 | 14.6% |
| Anderson | 0.310 | 3.83 | 0.350 | 4.91 | 0.250 | 0.703 | 0.293 | 4.48 | 0.263 | 0.00 | 17.8% |
| Scherzer | 0.312 | 3.42 | 0.225 | 2.75 | 0.249 | 0.695 | 0.265 | 3.13 | 0.206 | 0.01 | 30.8% |
| Shields | 0.372 | 4.38 | 0.297 | 3.66 | 0.244 | 0.712 | 0.304 | 4.44 | 0.251 | 0.01 | 23.9% |
| Carrasco | 0.288 | 3.51 | 0.280 | 3.57 | 0.248 | 0.736 | 0.298 | 3.06 | 0.228 | 0.01 | 28.4% |
| Walker | 0.301 | 3.99 | 0.327 | 4.91 | 0.252 | 0.727 | 0.285 | 4.28 | 0.248 | 0.01 | 21.7% |
| Rusin | 0.359 | 5.52 | 0.358 | 4.87 | 0.254 | 0.735 | 0.338 | 4.31 | 0.301 | 0.00 | 15.2% |
| Maeda | 0.260 | 2.40 | 0.259 | 3.24 | 0.270 | 0.776 | 0.257 | 3.42 | 0.211 | 0.02 | 22.1% |
| Price | 0.293 | 2.97 | 0.278 | 3.10 | 0.271 | 0.723 | 0.297 | 2.92 | 0.231 | 0.01 | 25.6% |
| Bumgarner | 0.231 | 2.50 | 0.274 | 2.69 | 0.277 | 0.774 | 0.281 | 2.84 | 0.217 | 0.01 | 27.3% |
CALL:
Long-shot plays that could hit it big but carry considerable risk of blow-up.
Wei-Yin Chen MIA (at MIN) – I’ve been expecting more out of Chen in Miami. He had solid skills that were a bad fit for his home park in Baltimore so joining the NL and that cavernous Marlins Stadium felt like a chance to “earn” his 2014-15 ERA. His 3.44 ERA from those two years was paired with a 4.03 FIP. I thought maybe a few more strikeouts and a lot fewer homers could yield a similar ERA, but a FIP to match. The issue is that he hasn’t really stopped the homers. He’s still allowing 1.1 HR/9, right in line with his 1.2 career rate. And he’s weirdly been much worse at home (5.01 ERA, 1.40 WHIP). On the road he’s at 2.96 and 0.90. This Twins team could be a sneaky bad matchup, though. They have just a .720 OPS against lefties at home this year, but their 3.6% home run rate sits 8th.
Jameson Taillon PIT (NYM) – The former super-prospect is making his MLB debut after missing two whole years. The first was lost to TJ, but then he suffered a hernia in the rehab and missed all of last year, too. Impressively, it looks like he hasn’t really missed a beat despite the huge layoff. He decimated Triple-A to the tune of a 2.04 ERA and 0.81 WHIP with 61 Ks and just 6 BBs in 61.7 IP. The 6’6, 225-pound righty has a huge fastball, hammer curve, and usable changeup.
He works mid-90s with the heat and it’s routinely graded as a 65 or better pitch (well above average). The curve varies a bit more in grades, but it’s unquestionably plus. The changeup has improved and been a key to his success so far this year. He has the tools to be an impact arm this year, though his DFS usefulness today is curbed by a likely pitch count. He’s averaging 90 pitches per start in the minors and almost certainly won’t exceed that against the Mets.
Chase Anderson MIL (OAK) – On the one hand, Anderson has been solid for his last five starts yielding a 2.97 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in 30.3 IP. On the other hand, he hasn’t finished six innings in any of the last three and only the near no-no against the Cubs (8.7 IP/2 ER) was all that special in DFS. He made the most of his 5.7 IP last time out and still netted 24 and 44 points at DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively, but you’re never feeling all that confident slotting Anderson into your lineup. Oakland’s anemic lineup is a shot for Anderson to stay hot and it’s really the only reason I’d even consider him today.
FOLD:
Run away. Do Not Pass Go. Do Not Collect $200. Consider stacking with opposing lineups.
Alfredo Simon CIN – How is he still in the rotation? No, seriously. They are a rebuilding team with young arms who can use those innings, why are they letting an 8.94 ERA Simon see the light of day in their rotation?!
Doug Fister HOU – He might have the least DFS-viable run of a 2.45 ERA over seven starts ever with just 16.5 PPG at DK and 32.5 at FD.
Jered Weaver LAA – I don’t think I’d trust him against a Double-A team.
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