MLB DFS Slate Preview: Saturday, May 20
Taylor Smith previews the Saturday, May 20th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Happy Saturday to everyone except the Royals, who mustered all of one hit against Michael Kopech on Friday night. It’s fine, I’m not bitter! We’ll turn the page with a nice 9-gamer this afternoon that gets underway at 4:05 ET. Mercifully, the Royals are nowhere to be seen on this slate. We’ve got some quality high-end pitching to consider here, but it looks like we’ll have to find value on the hitting side as a result. The Tigers are facing Patrick Corbin, so perhaps that’s one place to start.
Without further ado, let’s get a bird’s-eye view of this 9-gamer.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- Welp! Looks like there’s a very real chance this 9-gamer becomes an 8-gamer by the time we get underway. Roth has the CLE-NYM game tagged ORANGE/RED this morning with a couple of inches of rain expected in Queens this afternoon. That’ll also likely zap Max Scherzer as an option, which may not be the worst thing given his struggles so far this season. As always, keep an eye on Twitter for updates as we get closer to first pitch.
- That’s not the only questionable game, however. CHC-PHI and DET/WAS are both YELLOW/ORANGE. These cities aren’t far from each other, of course, and they’re getting nipped by the same storm. Roth does say he thinks these games should be able to play, though both have delay potential.
- ARI-PIT has some wind blowing out to left-center, but no precipitation to worry about here.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- The Astros got Jose Altuve back from his hand injury last night, and he promptly went 0-4 with a walk against Ken Waldichuk and friends. Mauricio Dubon, who’s been a bright spot for Houston, went to the bench as a result. Dubon is projected to sit again today. We have Chas McCormick projected to start in center over Jake Meyers against lefty JP Sears this afternoon.
- Yandy Diaz has missed 4 straight games with a groin injury, but the Rays haven’t IL’d him just yet. Luke Raley started at first base in Yandy’s spot last night, though we have Harold Ramirez expected to start today against lefty Eric Lauer.
- Jose Ramirez returned from the bereavement list last night, while Josh Naylor returned from a hamstring issue. Both would be intriguing contrarian bats today if this game somehow plays, as Scherzer has had some issues keeping the ball in the yard against LHBs over the years.
- Christian Yelich missed a couple of games with a bad back, but he returned to the lineup last night. He’s expected to be in the lineup again today and hit leadoff against right-hander Zach Eflin. Rowdy Tellez will also likely start after starting last night’s game on the bench.
- Cody Bellinger went on the IL yesterday with a knee injury, though Nico Hoerner was reinstated. Hoerner will presumably lead off today against Aaron Nola, while Edwin Rios is expected to be in the lineup to give the Cubs another left-handed slugger in Bellinger’s spot.
- The Astros underwhelmed as one of the top stacks on last night’s slate, but they look good again today against a middling lefty. JP Sears isn’t terrible, but Houston’s lineup is a lot more impressive on paper with Altuve back in it. The ‘Stros’ 5.57 total ranks among the highest on the day. The Yankees (5.75) lead the pack, and they get a massive park bump going into Great American Ballpark to face journeyman Luke Weaver. These look like stacks 1A and 1B today. If you’re looking for comparable upside at an ownership discount, the Phillies against Jameson Taillon fit the bill. The big bats in those lineups won’t come cheap, however. It’s gross, but the Tigers against Corbin do project well on the cheaper side.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- As was the case last night, we don’t have a clear-cut SP1 on this slate. Unlike yesterday, however, we do have plenty of quality options. Aaron Nola stands out most of all in a home matchup with the Cubs. He’s also just $9,200 on FanDuel, so he’s cheaper than Logan Webb, Zach Eflin, Hunter Brown, Jon Gray, and Max Scherzer. Nola’s strikeouts have tanked to about 19% on the year, but this is a good bounce-back spot against a Chicago lineup whiffing more than 27% of the time vs. right-handed pitching. For the dollar, Nola is my SP1.
- Logan Webb is next up in a nice home matchup against a Miami lineup missing Jazz Chisholm, but he won’t come cheap on FD ($10,800). Hunter Brown (vs. OAK) and Jon Gray (vs. COL) are next on the list in elite matchups of their own. Mitch Keller is having a breakout season, but he’s already way up at $11,500 on FD for a home date against a low-strikeout Arizona lineup. I do buy what Keller’s selling these days, but it’s hard to justify paying top dollar for him in this spot. You can say the same of the $10,200 Zach Eflin at home against Milwaukee, though there are some whiffs in the Brewers’ lineup (24.3% vs. RHP). If you want to punt with your pitcher, Brandon Pfaadt ($6,000 at PIT) and Braxton Garrett ($7,200 at SF) are playable in tournaments.
- As mentioned, the Astros, Yankees, and Phillies carry the most appeal on the hitting side. JP Sears has a wide platoon split from the left side along with a massive 55.7% flyball rate. He’s allowed 11 homers already, and I’d expect the Astros to hunt the Crawford Boxes against him today. Houston’s RHBs are cheap on FD, too. Jose Altuve leads the pack at just $3,400, followed by Alex Bregman ($3,000), Jeremy Pena ($3,100), and Jose Abreu ($2,400). Abreu is dust, but at least he’s affordable dust. Kyle Tucker ($3,100) is also too cheap even in a lefty-lefty spot. Yordan Alvarez ($4,300) thumps same-handed pitching, too. Corey Julks ($2,600) is another decent source of value.
- Luke Weaver hasn’t been very good in several years, and he projects for a wide reverse split. That bodes well for Aaron Judge ($4,500), who looks like the best bat on the entire slate in this little league ballpark. Gleyber Torres ($3,200) and Anthony Rizzo ($3,300) are next on the list for power, while Bader, Cabrera, and Volpe are all hovering in the $3,000 range.
- Coors legend Matt McLain ($2,400) projects as one of the best value bats on the slate for a matchup against the middling Jhony Brito. Abreu, Corey Dickerson ($2,000), Jack Suwinski ($2,700), Matt Vierling ($2,600), and Javier Baez ($2,600) are a few more salary-savers worth your while as one-offs. Kyle Schwarber is always too cheap on FanDuel ($3,000), and he profiles well against a guy who will yield some power to left-handed bats.
- Nola is also $9,200 on DraftKings, so he gets the SP1 nod over here, too. Webb ($10,600) and Eflin ($10,000) are the priciest pitchers on the slate assuming we can ignore the $10,300 Scherzer due to weather. $9,300 on DK is better than $11,500 on FD for Keller, but he’s still close to being priced out of consideration against a DBax lineup only striking out about 20% of the time vs. RHPs. I’d rather spend similar salary for Hunter Brown ($9,600) against Oakland. Jon Gray is awfully cheap on DK for his revenge matchup against the Rockies ($8,300), who are one of the most punchless offenses in the sport outside of Coors Field.
- Webb isn’t easy to afford from a DFS standpoint today, but his strikeout number on Underdog is quite attackable. I love the value on Webb to top 5.5 strikeouts at home against the Marlins. If you’re new to the site, take advantage of our special Underdog Fantasy promo code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- Paying north of $8,000 for both pitchers is the safest route here, but I do think you can take some gross shots in GPPs on some cheapies. Patrick Corbin is only $5,800 at home against the Tigers today. He’s awful, but he has a long leash and it’s not like the Tigers are world-beaters. Pfaadt ($5,400) struggled through his first 2 turns in the Arizona rotation, but he looked much better last time out. He’s cheap and facing the Pirates on the road today, so I’m willing to take the plunge. Garrett ($6,300) at San Francisco is also playable if you’re MMEing.
- The Astros and Yankees aren’t as cheap overall on DraftKings, but there are some affordable bats. Abreu ($2,500) and Julks ($2,400) make it easier to afford the likes of Altuve ($5,100) and Pena ($4,000), while Bregman ($4,300) feels too cheap. Judge ($6,200) will cost ya, but we do have 3 Yankees at $2,400 or less in the projected lineup in Cabrera, Bauers, and Rortvedt.
- Corbin is playable, but so are the Tigers against him. Detroit’s 4.75 total today is probably one of the highest marks we’ll see for them all year. RHBs crush this guy, and the Tigers are full of cheap RHBs. Jonathan Schoop ($2,000), Matt Vierling ($2,500), Jake Rogers ($2,300), and Spencer Torkelson ($3,100) are free. Javier Baez is more expensive ($4,500), while Riley Greene ($4,800) is playable in stacks lefty-lefty.
- Dominic Smith ($2,200), Manuel Margot ($2,200), Wilmer Flores ($2,600), Joey Meneses ($2,700), and Corey Dickerson ($2,400) are viable punts if you need ‘em, especially in cash games.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck today!