MLB DFS Slate Preview: Saturday, September 2nd
Taylor Smith previews the Saturday, September 2nd slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings & FanDuel. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
The calendar has flipped to September, which means it’s officially football szn. College football starts in earnest today, while NFL Week 1 is only about a week off. That said, we’ve still got a full month of regular-season MLB action to look forward to, including a hefty 11-game slate this evening. The Blue Jays will once again headline the offensive side of things as the visitors in Coors Field, while things look a little sketchier on the pitching side.
This has the makings of a fun, wide-open slate. Read on for news, notes, and the best MLB DFS picks for Saturday night.
MLB DFS Picks: FanDuel & DraftKings
This daily article highlights some of RG’s most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- A big slate with zero weather concerns sounds pretty good to me. SEA/NYM is the only game tagged in Roth’s morning weather report, but it’s GREEN and worth noting with winds of around 10 mph blowing out to left field. This is one of the cooler games on the slate, though, with temps in the mid-70s.
- Just about every other game features decent hitting weather. BOS/KC and TOR/COL are the only games that’ll be over 90 degrees at first pitch, and we saw offensive explosions in both spots last night with similar weather. PIT/STL is pushing 90 at first pitch, as well.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Emmet Sheehan was recalled by the Dodgers yesterday, which puts him in line to start tonight against the mighty Braves. In related news, Atlanta has an implied run total of 5 in this one.
- Colin Rea is back in the Brewers’ rotation after getting sent down to the minors back at the beginning of August. He’s pitched well for most of the season, but this is certainly a tough spot against a deep, in-form Phillies offense.
- Jose Altuve left last night’s game early after fouling a ball off his shin. The Astros are generally reluctant to provide much injury info, so he’s questionable to suit up tonight against Luis Severino. Mauricio Dubon would presumably get the nod at the keystone if Altuve sits tonight.
- Chas McCormick should return to Houston’s lineup tonight after getting last night off. Jake Meyers will likely head back to the bench.
- Lars Nootbaar returned last night after missing time with a groin strain. He’s projected to lead off tonight with the Cardinals facing right-hander Thomas Hatch.
- Gleyber Torres was a late scratch from the Yankees’ lineup with a sore back. We have him projected to start tonight, but Isiah Kiner-Falefa could crack the lineup again if Torres remains sidelined.
- Danny Jansen hit a dong last night, but he was then forced to leave the game with a fractured finger. Alejandro Kirk should do most of the catching for as long as Jansen is on the shelf, while Tyler Heineman will get the call from Triple-A to serve as Kirk’s backup.
- Javier Baez has been out of the Tigers’ lineup over the past couple of games with an undisclosed issue. Zack Short would get another start at shortstop if Baez is still out tonight. Riley Greene left last night’s game after injuring his elbow, but it’s not believed to be a serious issue.
- The Giants scratched JD Davis from last night’s lineup because of a hand injury. Casey Schmitt took over at the hot corner last night in San Diego.
- The Blue Jays will again top the list of stacks tonight against Ty Blach in Colorado. Blach has pitched pretty well of late, but just 1 of his last 5 starts have come at Coors. The Braves are always an appealing stack, and tonight they’re in a prime spot against a young, reverse-splits righty in Sheehan. They’re considerably more expensive than the Jays, however. The Phillies, Rockies, and Red Sox are grading out as solid stacks, while I’m willing to go back to the Orioles at what should be limited ownership vs. Slade Cecconi.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on FanDuel and DraftKings.
- Luis Castillo ($10,800) is the most expensive pitcher on the slate in New York for a date with the Mets, but this lineup still poses a considerable power threat (.220 ISO vs. RHP). Blake Snell is projecting for considerably more ownership at a $200 discount from Castillo at home against the Giants. Aaron Nola ($10,300) and Kyle Bradish ($9,900) are tougher sells at their salaries against the Brewers and D-Backs, respectively. If I’m paying up for anyone, it’ll be Snell.
- There are a few ways to save salary on the pitching side. David Peterson ($6,200) is the one that stands out right away. Seattle’s projected lineup has struck out nearly 31% of the time against lefties on the season, and Citi Field is one of the more pitcher-friendly parks on the slate. Drew Rom ($7,100) is a fine pivot at what should be less ownership, while Hunter Brown ($9,600) and Mike Clevinger ($8,900) are playable in tournaments.
- Clearly, Toronto is the big decision point again tonight. The lineup isn’t quite as imposing without Bo Bichette, but it’s also a cheaper stack as a result. Vladimir Guerrero ($3,800) has weirdly hit for no power (.059 ISO) against lefties this year, yet he’ll still project as the top overall bat on the slate. Kirk is a fine salary saver ($2,700) even though we don’t have to play a catcher on FanDuel, while Mason McCoy and Ernie Clement are just $2,500 apiece. Davis Schneider ($3,500) has put up boffo numbers in a limited sample. He and George Springer ($3,600) are tagged as core plays by STLCards in LineupHQ, and I don’t disagree.
- The Braves are always appealing if you can afford them, which you can if you punt with Peterson. Ronald Acuna ($4,900) is en fuego once again, while we still have reasonable salaries on Austin Riley ($3,900), Sean Murphy ($3,600), and Marcell Ozuna ($3,700). Sheehan hasn’t been any better against LHBs early in his career, so fire up Matt Olson ($4,300) and Ozzie Albies ($4,000) in your stacks.
Acuna is hitting .338 with 31 homers and 63 stolen bases on the season. This man is a walking fantasy point. I don’t have much faith in Sheehan to shut him down, and banking on the Braves’ bats to succeed has been a pretty profitable strategy all season. I’ll be smashing higher than 10.5 fantasy points for the future NL MVP on Underdog tonight. If you’re a new user, be sure to claim our Underdog Fantasy bonus code.
(See RotoGrinders projections directly on the Fantasy Pick’em sites with our browser extensions, available to premium users.)
- The Dodgers get a tougher draw with Bryce Elder, but his 4.69 SIERA says he’s due for some regression on that 3.50 ERA. LA’s offense isn’t quite as appealing given the pinch-hit risk with some of the LHBs that’ll start tonight, but James Outman ($2,800) and Will Smith ($3,400) both grade out as solid values. Jason Heyward ($2,400) is hitting for enough power this season to be worth a punt, though he’s not at all guaranteed to see a full game’s worth of plate appearances. Obviously, Mookie Betts ($4,500) and Freddie Freeman ($4,400) are the headliners if you have the funds.
- Snell ($11,300) and Castillo ($11,100) are the high-priced headliners on DraftKings, with Snell again projecting for significantly more ownership. Hunter Brown ($8,800) projects well against an undermanned version of the Yankees, and he did look better in his last start following a ragged run of form.
- David Peterson should be the chalk SP2 du jour at just $6,300 against Seattle. Given the lack of appealing alternatives, that’s chalk I may just eat. Jordan Montgomery ($9,900) is always a bit overpriced on DK, while Mike Clevinger ($8,000) and Drew Rom ($5,300) are cheap enough to keep in the GPP player pool. Kyle Harrison ($8,500) will face the Padres after his 11-strikeout gem last time out, but San Diego is a very low-K lineup (18.7%) against lefties.
- Vlad Jr., Springer, and Schneider are all north of $5,000 on DK, while Whit Merrifield ($4,900) isn’t far behind. You can find salary relief with Clement ($2,600), McCoy ($2,500), Santiago Espinal ($2,900), and Alejandro Kirk ($3,500), which helps the full stack come together pretty easily.
- If David Peterson is going to be popular, we have to at least consider stacking the Mariners in tournaments. Julio Rodriguez ($6,400), Teoscar Hernandez ($4,600), and Eugenio Suarez ($4,700) form a nice mini-stack with significant power upside, while Dylan Moore ($3,600) has fared well against southpaws over the course of his career.
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey, and daily LineupHQ Premium tags from our MLB DFS experts.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time later in the day.
Good luck tonight!