MLB DFS Picks Today: Projections, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Values for DraftKings (April 12)
Taylor Smith previews the Friday, April 12th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Happy Friday! We’ve got a busy night on the schedule, with a 12-game MLB DFS slate and an 11-game NBA DFS slate to sort through. I won’t blame you one iota if you’ve bailed on hoops to focus your efforts on baseball at this point in their respective seasons, and I think this will be the biggest slate we’ve had since the campaign got underway a couple of weeks ago.
As always, I’m here to give you a bird’s-eye view of how I’ll be approaching things on DraftKings tonight.
MLB DFS Picks & Lineup Advice Today
This daily article highlights some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer (LineupHQ), with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then, we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- Update: NYY/CLE is PPD. Welp, right off the bat I see a glaring RED in Roth’s forecast. NYY/CLE gets the early ORANGE/RED treatment with rain all day long in Cleveland. In addition to that, we’ve got chilly temps in the 40s and winds gusting around 30 miles an hour. It sounds like truly miserable weather in which to be sitting around and watching baseball. Probably worse to try and play in it. So, this could turn into an 11-gamer pretty easily.
- MIL/BAL gets a YELLOW tag with light showers in the area with the potential for a late start. Sounds more than likely they’ll be able to play in some form or fashion.
- LAA/BOS has winds out to left at around 20 mph. Fenway, of course, is already a good park for right-handed power even without the help of the wind
- KC/NYM has winds out to left-center at around 15 mph along with a small chance of rain. GREEN is the official Roth take here, though.
- CIN/CHW has winds out to center at around 20 mph. SD/LAD has 10-mph winds out to left.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Rafael Devers is expected to sit again on Friday night against the Angels, as he continues to deal with a sore shoulder. This is already a very weak lineup even with Devers in there. Pablo Reyes is expected to man the hot corner and hit clean-up for Boston tonight, which really tells you all you need to know about the state of this offense. Romy Gonzalez left Wednesday’s game with a wrist injury, so David Hamilton is likely to draw another start at shortstop tonight.
- All of Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada, and Eloy Jimenez have landed on the IL, which makes an already-terrible White Sox lineup even more terrible. Korey Lee, Martin Maldonado, Paul DeJong, Robbie Grossman, Kevin Pillar, and Nicky Lopez are all in Chicago’s projected lineup tonight against Andrew Abbott. It’s bad to be a Sox team right now, I guess.
- The A’s placed Brent Rooker on the injured list yesterday. Max Schuemann came up to take his spot on the roster, though Lawrence Butler is likely to draw most of the starts in the outfield with Rooker sidelined. Lawrence is in Oakland’s projected lineup at home tonight against Jake Irvin.
- Keibert Ruiz missed a couple of games earlier in the week with an illness, so he’s questionable to return to the Nats’ lineup tonight when they face Paul Blackburn in the East Bay. We do have Ruiz in the projected lineup tonight hitting 6th, but Riley Adams or Drew Millas will get the nod behind the plate if Ruiz is still under the weather.
- There’s a chance the red-hot Royals will activate Michael Massey off the injured list ahead of their weekend series in New York. If he does return, Massey is a threat to take some playing time away from Adam Frazier at 2nd base.
- We don’t have Coors Field on this slate, so we could see fairly spread-out ownership on the hitting side of things. The Astros and Reds are the only teams on the slate with implied run totals of at least 5, though the Dodgers, Braves, Diamondbacks, and Blue Jays are coming in just below that threshold.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on DraftKings.
- Kevin Gausman ($10,000) is the headlining pitcher from a salary standpoint on DraftKings tonight, and he gets a cushy matchup at home against the Rockies. The issue here is that Gausman’s lower average velocity in his most recent start spurred some potential injury concerns, though Gausman himself didn’t seem at all concerned based on his postgame comments. Gausman projects as a pretty clear-cut SP1 tonight, and I’d imagine he’ll be owned accordingly.
- If you’re nervous about Gausman, you can always roster… Max Fried! All Fried has done through 2 starts is allow 10 earned runs across just 5 total innings of work against the Phillies and D-Backs. Yikes! Both matchups are considerably tougher than the one he’ll face tonight against the Marlins in Miami, however, and he was able to right the ship a bit in his last outing following a disastrous first inning. Most importantly, we’re getting a $1,300 discount with Fried compared to Gausman on DraftKings, so I’m likely to go back to the well again. Freddy Peralta ($9,300) is a similar play despite a tougher on-paper matchup against the Orioles, though Baltimore has been a fairly high-strikeout group (25.8%) against right-handed pitching.
- There are some cheapies to consider, though none of them are exciting. Nothing about the skill set of Jake Irvin makes him look like a compelling DFS play in most situations, but tonight he’ll face the A’s in Oakland. In addition to the park boost, Irvin draws an Oakland offense with a collective 25.5% K rate vs. RHPs since the start of 2023. Plus, he’s only $5,200 on DK. If he can scratch his way to 10-12 points, I’ll take it. Luis Severino ($6,800) and JP France ($6,400) are viable point-per-dollar plays, though matchups against the Royals and Rangers are a bit more dangerous. It’ll be interesting to see what happens with the ownership for Reid Detmers ($8,300), who’s underpriced for his numbers going up against that middling Red Sox lineup. The park downgrade going into Fenway is a substantial one for the Angels’ lefty, however.
- The Braves get a park hit offensively going into Miami, where they’ll face formerly good pitcher Trevor Rogers. Rogers has battled injuries over the past couple of years, and he’s always been a lefty with a wide traditional split. Atlanta’s lineup features a boatload of right-handed power, with Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, Marcell Ozuna, Adam Duvall, Orlando Arcia, and Travis d’Arnaud all swinging from the preferred side of the plate. There isn’t a single Braves hitter projected to be more than 10% owned as of this writing, though that could certainly change by the time lock rolls around.
- The Astros have been awful of late, so I’m skeptical that they’ll actually come in as chalk against Dane Dunning at home. Dunning is a right-hander with some groundball ability against his fellow righties, and Houston is generally a righty-heavy offense. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker should pull ownership as the power LHBs here, but it’s not a perfect spot to be paying up for the likes of Jose Altuve, Yainer Diaz, or Alex Bregman.
- A potentially sneaky stack worth targeting is the Angels – yes, the Angels – going into Fenway to face Tanner Houck. Houck has gotten off to a good start this season, but the Halos do still have some talent here even without Shohei Ohtani. One issue is LAA is projected to start 7 righties against a pitcher with a solid track record of success vs. RHBs, but this is the most hitter-friendly ballpark on the slate. The stack is also cheap once you get past Mike Trout ($5,900), as Taylor Ward ($4,300) and Brandon Drury ($4,000) are the only other bats north of $4,000. The Angels have a solid enough 4.5 implied run total in this one, too.
- A few value bats worth considering as one-offs are David Hamilton ($2,600), Lenyn Sosa ($2,500), Seth Brown ($2,800), Zach Neto ($2,300), Victor Scott ($2,500), Mickey Moniak ($2,900), Trey Lipscomb ($2,200), and Joey Gallo ($2,800).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and the projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey (which can be found on the MLB Content Schedule), and Expert Plays in LineupHQ from our stable of contributors.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, be sure to catch our GrindersLive and Crunch Time Show Block, beginning at 5:00 PM ET.
Good luck!
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