MLB DFS Picks Today: Projections, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Values for DraftKings (April 16)
Taylor Smith previews the Tuesday, April 16th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
Happy Tuesday! We’re back with a nice 10-game MLB DFS slate with a little bit of everything. We’ve got some quality high-end pitching alongside some intriguing cheaper stuff, while only a handful of offenses are really standing out from an implied run total perspective.
This has the makings of another fun slate, so it’ll be fascinating to see which ace gets absolutely shellacked! Let’s dive right in and take a gander at how things are shaping up over on DraftKings.
MLB DFS Picks & Lineup Advice Today
This daily article highlights some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer (LineupHQ), with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then, we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- Looks like there’s a strong chance this 10-gamer turns into a 9-gamer, as Roth has KC/CWS listed as ORANGE/RED early this morning. Sounds like the weather will get pretty gnarly in Chicago this evening, so this one could get the early axe. If it plays, winds are also howling in from center at around 20 MPH.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- UPDATE: It seems more likely that the Dodgers will use an opener with Ryan Yarbrough handling bulk relief duty. Knack may well get into the game, but he’s not playable in DFS unless he starts, in my opinion.
- The Dodgers are going to stand out in several regards tonight. They haven’t officially announced tonight’s starter yet, but rookie Landon Knack – the organization’s No. 13 prospect – is a candidate on 5 days rest. This is a deep system, so their 13th-best prospect might actually be pretty good. He showed decent strikeout stuff at the lower levels, and he’s only $6,000. The Dodgers are also reportedly calling up outfielder Andy Pages, their 3rd-ranked prospect. He’s a righty power hitter that should slot into their lineup immediately tonight against Patrick Corbin. I have to think Pages will be very popular tonight at only $2,000, even if he’s hitting 8th or 9th. He’ll presumably get a crack over the struggling Chris Taylor.
- Ozzie Albies isn’t expected to start for the Braves after he took a pitch to the toe in last night’s game. We do have Albies in the projected lineup as of early this morning, but Luis Guillorme could get the nod at 2nd base if Ozzie sits.
- Tyler O’Neill is considered day-to-day after he left yesterday’s game early following a nasty collision with Rafael Devers. He’s reportedly going through concussion protocol and received several stitches, so we’ll see.
- Christian Yelich is still dealing with a sore back, so he’s questionable to play again for the Brewers at home against Dylan Cease and the Padres. Switch-hitter Blake Perkins is currently projected to start and bat 9th for the Brew Crew.
- Salvador Perez is dealing with a minor groin strain, and he’s hoping to return to the Royals’ lineup this evening in Chicago. As mentioned though, that game is a candidate to be postponed due to weather.
- Seiya Suzuki landed on the IL late yesterday afternoon with an oblique injury, which is suboptimal for a Cubs offense that’s gotten off to a blazing start this season. Alexander Canario got the call to replace Suzuki on the roster. He’s projected to hit 8th in Arizona vs. Tommy Henry.
- Jake Cronenworth departed last night’s game with calf tightness. The team hasn’t provided an update since then, so we don’t know how long (or if) he’ll be sidelined. We currently have him in the projected lineup and hitting 3rd against Wade Miley.
- The A’s recalled Esteury Ruiz yesterday after J.D. Davis went on the IL with a groin strain. Ruiz promptly hit a dong in his first game back, and he’s likely to lead off for the A’s tonight when they take their hacks against Lance Lynn.
- Keibert Ruiz has missed the last several games with an illness, so the Nats finally decided to IL him yesterday. Riley Adams should do most of the catching with Ruiz sidelined, while Drew Millas was recalled from the minors. Adams is projected to start tonight’s game against Knack.
- The Mariners called up prospect Jonatan Clase yesterday after Dominic Canzone went on the injured list with a shoulder issue. Clase – Seattle’s No. 10 prospect – is still only $2,000 on DK.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on DraftKings.
- Dylan Cease ($10,700) is the headliner from a salary standpoint, as he gets set to take the mound in Milwaukee. His strikeout stuff (30.3%) has been as elite as ever, while his control (9.1% walks) has been as shaky as ever. This is a park downgrade for Cease, though there are some strikeouts in the Brewers lineup (23.9% vs. RHP since the start of 2023). I never mind getting to Cease in tournaments, but he is far from a necessity at that salary. If you’re playing cash games, I see no need to spend all the way up.
- That’s because we’ve got other decent pitchers in better spots. Lance Lynn ($8,400) is the one who stands out the most, as he’ll get the benefit of facing the A’s (29% K rate vs. RHP since the start of 2023) in Oakland. I’m reluctant to buy into a homer-prone pitcher like Lynn at what should be significant ownership, but hopefully the spacious ballpark will help him keep the ball in the yard. He’s hard to get away from, sadly. Logan Gilbert ($9,500) and Hunter Greene ($9,000) will do battle against one another in Seattle. Both of these are very high-strikeout offenses in spite of some power risk for the pitchers, but it is a pitcher-friendly setting. I’ll be getting to all three of Lynn, Gilbert, and Greene far more than I’ll be paying up for Cease.
- For savings, I don’t mind rolling the dice on Landon Knack ($6,000), Carlos Rodon ($7,600), or Hunter Brown ($6,500). Brown is by far the shakiest of the three at home against the mighty Braves, but this is a pitcher who’s shown a good combination of strikeouts and groundballs in the past when he’s been right. He hasn’t looked right at all so far this season, but he’s affordable. Knack draws a Nationals team with more strikeouts in the lineup than we saw last year (24.3% vs. RHP), and he’s cheap enough to help you pay up for some high-end stacks. Rodon is fresh off of one of his best outings as a Yankee, though he’ll face a sea of righties in Toronto. The Jays are a very low-strikeout bunch against LHP (17.4%), but $7,600 is still a bit light for Rodon if he’s finally healthy.
- The top offense on the board is very clearly the Dodgers, who have a 6.01 implied run total at home against Patrick Corbin. Corbin has been a popular DFS punching bag for years, and it’ll be interesting to see LA’s ownership on a slate with shaky cheap pitching options. Freddie Freeman, Shohei Ohtani, and Mookie Betts are all at least $5,900 on DK, and Corbin is still a relatively decent pitcher who generates ground balls vs. lefties. Freeman, Ohtani, and Max Muncy won’t have the platoon edge here. I do think Pages ($2,000) and Will Smith ($4,600) will be popular individually, while Enrique Hernandez ($2,900) and Miguel Rojas ($3,300) are affordable as well.
- The only other teams on the slate with implied run totals north of 5 are the Cubs and D-backs in the same game. Chicago will face Tommy Henry, while Arizona gets the washed Kyle Hendricks. The Cubs are an interesting cheaper stack worth targeting with nobody more expensive than the $4,800 Cody Bellinger. The top 5 hitters in the Arizona projected order – Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Lourdes Gurriel, Christian Walker, and Joc Pederson – have ISOs of at least .185 vs. RHP since the beginning of 2023. Everyone but Pederson ($3,900) is up over $5,000 on DK, however.
- Cleveland looks like a solid source of value against Garrett Whitlock at Fenway. This is the most hitter-friendly park on the slate, and the Guardians are projected to start 7 lefty bats. Whitlock has been fairly splits-neutral in his career, but Cleveland isn’t projected to garner a ton of ownership. In fact, not a single hitter here is even cracking 10% pOWN%. Tyler Freeman, Estevan Florial, and Brayan Rocchio are all at $3,000 or under, which makes it easier to spend up for Jose Ramirez ($5,800) and Josh Naylor ($4,800) in stacks.
- Picking on Wade Miley hasn’t always been a fruitful endeavor over the years. He’s one of those soft-tossing veteran lefties that seems to know how to get outs despite his lack of strikeout ability. This Padres lineup might be a bit underrated at this point though, especially against LHP. Since the beginning of 2023, San Diego’s projected lineup has a collective .237 ISO with a gaudy .408 wOBA against LHP. Fernando Tatis ($5,500), Manny Machado ($4,800), and Xander Bogaerts ($4,400) are clear standouts, while Luis Campusano ($3,300) is a pretty good hitter by catcher standards.
- A few one-off value bats to consider are Andy Pages ($2,000), Jonatan Clase ($2,000), Victor Scott ($2,400), Joey Gallo ($3,000), Luis Garcia ($2,700), Danny Jansen ($3,100), Jordan Walker ($3,200), and Joc Pederson ($3,900).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and the projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey (which can be found on the MLB Content Schedule), and Expert Plays in LineupHQ from our stable of contributors.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, be sure to catch our GrindersLive and Crunch Time Show Block, beginning at 5:00 PM ET.
Good luck!
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