MLB DFS Picks Today: Projections, Top Stacks, Lineup Optimizer Values for DraftKings (April 9)
Taylor Smith previews the Tuesday, April 9th slate, breaking down his favorite MLB DFS picks, the top stacks, and some optimizer values at DraftKings. Sign up for MLB Premium to build DFS lineups like a pro!
11 games populate the MLB DFS slate on DraftKings for Tuesday night. At first glance, this is a fairly deep pitching slate, but we’ve also got another Coors Field game with which to contend. Coors will be popular but perhaps not overwhelmingly so with 21 other offenses out there from which to choose.
MLB DFS Picks & Lineup Advice Today
This daily article highlights some of RotoGrinders’ most helpful MLB DFS tools, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB DFS optimizer (LineupHQ), with some picks and analysis along the way. I will focus on the main slate of the day, but you can still find plenty of other tools, content, and analysis on RG for other slates.
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we look at the projected lineups and MLB DFS picks for the day, it’s crucial to understand how the weather will impact the slate. Then, we can better understand if we want to target certain games with ideal hitting conditions, for example, and possibly avoid games at risk of delay or postponement. Two tools to use are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge, which are both managed by RG’s Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. You should also be following Roth on Twitter for his important weather news and updates.
- NYM/ATL looks like the diciest game on the slate with a YELLOW/ORANGE tag as of this morning. There’s a chance for a late start here with heavy rain expected in Atlanta this afternoon, but it doesn’t sound like this one has a ton of postponement risk.
- LAD/MIN gets a GREEN/YELLOW for a low chance of a delay. That’s meaningful considering Tyler Glasnow looks like the SP1 on this slate, but I won’t be fading him for weather unless Roth’s afternoon update paints a significantly grimmer picture.
- PHI/WAS and ARI/ATL are both GREEN.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
There are ways to get edges in MLB DFS, such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order (since they are more likely to see an extra at-bat). We should always look for value bats that arise each slate. They allow us to fit those extra one or two players into our lineup who are likelier to hit home runs and get us those ceiling games we need to win tournaments.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are for this slate, which teams I’m looking to stack, and any other interesting notes. Going forward, the projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent daily, with the main changes being based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty. Also, certain players are more likely than others to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
- Ketel Marte will get the night off for the D-Backs, which makes the stack more affordable overall. Corbin Carroll slides up to the leadoff spot, while Gabriel Moreno and Joc Pederson will hit 2nd and 3rd, respectively. Jace Peterson cracks the lineup in the No. 6 spot in Marte’s place at 2nd base.
- The Nationals scratched Josiah Gray from his start in San Francisco, and Joan Adon will start instead. Adon has double-digit career walk and barrel rates at the MLB level alongside a sub-20% strikeout rate. In related news, the Giants look pretty interesting here, even in their pitcher-friendly home yard.
- Sonny Gray will come off the IL to make his season debut for the Cardinals tonight at home vs. the Phillies. Gray threw 54 pitches in a simulated game a few days ago en route to a return from a hamstring injury that’s kept him out since Spring Training. He didn’t make a minor league rehab start, so we can expect a pretty tight leash on him tonight.
- The Cubs have Ben Brown listed as their probable starter tonight in San Diego. He worked as a bulk reliever in his last outing against the Rockies, so he’ll likely still get into the game if Chicago decides to use an opener again tonight. Brown has thrown 44 and 52 pitches in his 2 games this season, so we’re likely not getting many more than 60-70 pitches here if things go well. However, Brown was a 30% strikeout guy in the minors, and he’s cheap at only $4,000.
- CJ Abrams remains day-to-day after missing last night’s game with a finger injury he sustained over the weekend. We currently have Abrams projected to lead off against lefty Kyle Harrison. Ildemaro Vargas would likely get another start at shortstop if Abrams remains out.
- Michael Conforto is dealing with a “minor side issue” that kept him out of last night’s loss to the Nats. He was reportedly available to pinch-hit but never entered the game. Conforto is currently projected to hit clean-up against right-hander Josiah Gray.
- Willson Contreras is expected to return to the Cardinals’ lineup tonight, but that was also the case yesterday before he was a late scratch with a sore hand. Ivan Herrera would start if Contreras is out again, while Contreras is projected to hit 5th if he does indeed return.
- Brent Rooker is questionable for Oakland after he was removed from Sunday’s game with abdominal soreness. We don’t have Rooker in Oakland’s projected lineup against Nathan Eovaldi in Texas.
- Once again, the Diamondbacks at Coors Field will be a primary decision point. They weren’t great last night against Kyle Freeland, but they’ll get another opportunity tonight against yet another hittable, low-strikeout pitcher in Cal Quantrill. Arizona’s 6.31 implied run total is actually higher than the 5.9 total they had ahead of last night’s game. The Rangers (5.37) and Braves (5.45) are the only other offenses on the slate with implied run totals of at least 5.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for confirmed lineups, as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings DFS Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out the RotoGrinders MLB DFS optimizer, LineupHQ. With this tool, you can create up to 300 MLB DFS lineups in seconds, all of which will adhere to the custom settings you input. For insight into how one of the best MLB DFS players uses LineupHQ, read this article and watch the embedded videos from the GOAT himself, CheeseIsGood.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all of the available players from highest to lowest based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on every slate. Let’s do that now and see what stands out on DraftKings.
- Tyler Glasnow ($10,100) should be the chalky choice as SP1 against the Twins. This will be Glasnow’s 4th outing of the year already after he threw a season-high 100 pitches last week against the Giants. This matchup is terrific, as Minnesota’s projected lineup is sporting a healthy 26% strikeout rate vs. RHP dating back to the start of 2023.
- I mentioned Ben Brown ($4,000) as a viable punt. It’s fair to assume we’ll see plenty of Glasnow/Brown/Diamondbacks builds on this slate, so be cognizant of the projected ownership if you’re inclined to go that route. It’s certainly appealing given the raw-point potential, but we see wild game-to-game swings in baseball.
- There are enough alternatives on the pitching side to where going all the way down to Brown is likely unnecessary. Nathan Eovaldi should be a popular SP2 choice given his $8,800 price tag and cushy matchup at home against the A’s. Zack Wheeler ($9,600) projects decently but may slip through the cracks a bit, especially with viable salary savers like Patrick Sandoval ($7,100), Kyle Harrison ($7,600), Chris Bassitt ($8,100), and Carlos Rodon ($7,900) on this slate. Rodon is the one that gives me the most pause, as he continues to project well despite having pitched incredibly poorly since the beginning of last season. The matchup with the Marlins is appealing on paper, but I’d prefer an underweight approach to Rodon if he’s going to garner ownership.
- Arizona draws Cal Quantrill, a right-hander that is essentially incapable of striking out his fellow righties. The Diamondbacks are projected to throw 5 righties his way, with Christian Walker, Eugenio Suarez, and Gabriel Moreno being the headliners. Quantrill is a reverse-splits righty, but that won’t be scaring me away from Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll at the top of the order, of course.
- The Braves get a matchup at home against Adrian Houser, who isn’t anything resembling a gas can despite his middling strikeout stuff. Houser has always been able to keep the ball on the ground, especially against righties. His career ground-ball rate vs. righties is north of 58%. Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley, and Orlando Arcia are all ground-ball hitters from the right side. I don’t mind getting up to them in Atlanta stacks, but Houser’s strength playing directly into their weaknesses will put the Braves stack behind a few others for me in terms of priority.
- If you’re looking to go a bit off the board, the Astros in Kansas City look intriguing. Cole Ragans has been a breakout star since his arrival in Kansas City last season, but the matchup against Houston is absolutely brutal for LHP. The ‘stros have whiffed just 17.9% of the time vs. LHP since the beginning of last season and have an ISO of over .200. Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker are two of the better lefty-hitting lefties in the league too. Houston still has a decent 4.45 implied run total here, which implies the oddsmakers aren’t too keen on Ragans’ chances of shutting them down. Yainer Diaz ($4,200), Jeremy Pena ($3,800), and Chas McCormick ($3,900) are cheap enough to make it easier to get up to Alvarez, Tucker, and Jose Altuve in stacks. Best of all, they’re not projected to pull any ownership due to the matchup against Ragans.
- I mentioned the Rangers being one of the teams with a run total of over 5, yet they’re not really projected to be all that popular as of now. That could certainly change, but it’s hard to ignore them at their current pOWN% against Alex Wood. Wood has always had a wide platoon split from the left side, so the Texas power righties will stand out. Adolis Garcia, Marcus Semien, Jonah Heim, Wyatt Langford, and Ezequiel Duran could give him some trouble here. Texas is also projected to start some rookie named Davis Wendzel, and I will surely not be the first or last to start making pretzel jokes at his expense. The point is he’s just $2,000, which helps to make stuff work.
- A few value bats worth considering as one-offs are Wendzel ($2,000), Duran ($2,600), Abraham Toro ($2,200), Taylor Trammell ($2,000), Miguel Sano ($3,100), Seth Brown ($2,900), Trey Lipscomb ($2,300), Jake McCarthy ($3,400), and Jacob Young ($2,600).
MLB Premium subscribers will have access to all of this data in LineupHQ, so be sure to keep checking there as we start getting the confirmed lineups and the projections update. The very best P/$ plays tend to be pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB. That being said, projections can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or if a player with a low salary gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick MLB DFS picks, our MLB Premium package also contains Consensus Value Rankings, an Expert Survey (which can be found on the MLB Content Schedule), and Expert Plays in LineupHQ from our stable of contributors.
And for up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch our GrindersLive and Crunch Time Show Block, beginning at 5:00 PM ET.
Good luck tonight!
Image Credit: Getty Images