MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 4/27/2022
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
It’s important to remember that MLB is much more volatile compared to NBA and even NFL, as the batter with the highest batting average facing the worst pitcher in the league can still go 0-for-4 while the 9-hole hitter with a .095 average could end up being the highest-scoring hitter of the slate.
What we want over a season of baseball is for the most likely outcomes to end up happening more often than not, which is all we can hope for based off historical data, while always knowing the day-to-day outcomes are just microcosms of those big averages and can swing way in our favor or the complete opposite way.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
No rain today! Every game is clear today and will play with no delays so let’s focus on the wind. The Yankees were already going to be popular after putting up 12 runs yesterday but with 15-20mph winds blowing out to right-center I’m expecting them to easily be the most popular offense. MIA/WSH will be cold with ~15mph winds blowing in from left while DET/MIN has ~10mph winds blowing in from center. CHC/ATL and CLE/LAA have slight winds blowing out and OAK/SFG will have ~15mph winds blowing out to center. BOS/TOR and HOU/TEX are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for BAL/NYY are +32.2% while total runs for MIA/WSH are -64.8%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
With almost everyone facing a righty (except BAL and OAK is facing a lefty opener) we should see teams’ usual lineups of late against righties while Boston has been sitting a different starter each game this week so we’ll see who that is later as Devers sat yesterday but will be back in today. I’m curious to see who Houston puts at leadoff today as Chas McCormick hit 8th against a lefty yesterday while Jose Siri hit lead-off but might not be in the lineup today against a righty and Jeremy Pena looks to be out of the running for leadoff lately. I think we could see Kyle Tucker get a chance there today with the platoon advantage and four hits including a homer in his last two games and he can steal a base if needed. If he remains in the 6-hole he’s still in play for $2,700 on FD but if he hits lead-off he’ll be my favorite player there and will be much more appealing on DK for $4,200. For now we’re not including Steven Kwan with his hamstring injury but none of the Guardians are in play for me against Ohtani.
The Yankees are going to be extremely popular on FanDuel at their prices with Aaron Judge the most expensive at just $3,600 and the top four of their batting order are my favorite stack today as even Giancarlo Stanton broke out of his slump with a couple hits yesterday and his price fell under $3k. They’re harder to fit on DK with an average price around $5k but its still very doable as there are some very affordable pitching options there today. The Braves, Jays, and Angels come in as my next favorite stacks all at home facing mediocre righties with Springer, Bichette, and Vlad all looking way too cheap on FD and Ozuna is my favorite option on both sites to get exposure to Atlanta if you’re not stacking them. Mike Trout has been on fire of late and should be very popular at $4,500 on FD with Ward, Walsh, and Rendon making for a very affordable FD stack. Glenn Otto was solid in his last start but I think Houston is very stackable today and my favorite “sneaky” stack is Baltimore at extremely cheap prices on both sites with the wind blowing out in Yankee stadium.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel the Yankees are just way too cheap with 15+ mph winds blowing out so Anthony Rizzo ($3,500), Aaron Judge ($3,600), and Giancarlo Stanton ($2,900) are where I’m starting my main build today and if you want a 4th Yankee I’d go with DJ LeMahieu at leadoff for $3,200 but depending on positional needs and their prices Josh Donaldson ($3,000), Gleyber Torres ($2,300), and Joey Gallo ($2,400) are all in play as well. Next I’m looking at George Springer ($3,500) and Bo Bichette ($3,200) to get Blue Jays exposure as those prices are going to be way higher soon and if you can still fit him I think Mike Trout is too cheap at $4,500. A couple guys under $3k I really like are the previously mentioned Kyle Tucker ($2,700) especially if he hits leadoff and Corey Seager at $2,800 who hasn’t been great of late but that is about the cheapest we’re going to see him all year. Other value bats I like on FD are Anthony Rendon ($3,300), Yordan Alvarez ($3,200), Marcell Ozuna ($3,000), Max Kepler ($2,800), Taylor Ward ($3,000), and Michael Brantley ($2,700).
Looking at DraftKings Marcell Ozuna is probably my favorite play for the price at just $3,500 while Max Kepler isn’t too far behind him at just $3,100 coming off a big game and likely hitting clean-up today. After those two I’m going to do my best to fit in as many Yankees as possible and at catcher I love the value of Zack Collins ($3,400) and Travis d’Arnaud ($3,300) to help fit those Yankees in. Other cheap bats I’m considering on DK include Luis Arraez ($3,400), Trey Mancini ($2,600), Lourdes Gurriel ($3,300), and Alex Verdugo ($3,400).
There are a lot of pitchers I like today but I think Shohei Ohtani has to be the top option with the highest upside and he has a great price on DK at just $9,000. On Fanduel I like both Jordan Montgomery and Charlie Morton at under $8k each and both are very affordable on DK as well. Expensive GPP guys I like are Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan while Paul Blackburn, Michael Pineda, and Erick Fedde are all guys worth taking shots on if you’re doing a bunch of lineups.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getitng a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn