MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 5/20/2022
We’re ending the week with a big 12-game slate but there’s a high chance of it being an 11-game slate as Coors field is going to be in the 30’s and snowing and almost certainly PPD.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
NYM/COL is almost definitely going to be postponed as its freezing and snowing all night at Coors Field so I’m going to ignore that game for the rest of the article while CHW/NYY will see some light rain around first pitch but should play fine or after a late start and the same is true for LAD/PHI.
DET/CLE is looking at 15-20mph wings blowing out to dead center and with 80-85 degree heat these offenses should get a nice weather boost and the pitchers are a bit riskier to use. SDP/SFG has ~10mph blowing out to right while TBR/BAL, LAD/PHI, SEA/BOS, and OAK/LAA all have ~5-10mph winds blowing out to left. MIN/KCR & CHW/NYY have slight breezes blowing in and CIN/TOR, TEX/HOU, and WAS/MIL are in domes.
CHW/NYY IS PPD!!!!!!
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for TBB/BAL are +19.9% while total runs for DET/CLE are +40%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
We have 14 lefties starting today we should see a lot of righty-heavy lineups while Bryce Harper will be in there at DH if he’s ready regardless of the lefty-lefty matchup. Andrew McCutchen and Joey Votto are expected to come off the covid-IL and start today and both are very cheap on FD. Margot, Mountcastle, and Perez remain on the IL and Michael Taylor is likely still out on the covid list.
My favorite stack today is the Yankees at home against Keuchel who escaped in his last outing against them with 0 ER but had just 3 K’s and allowed 4 hits and 3 walks so chances should be there for the Yankees to do damage. Donaldson and Torres are very affordable on both sites while Judge and Stanton are obviously more expensive but I’d try fitting at least one of them in. The Blue Jays are my next favorite stack at home against Castillo who has been very average in his two starts this season allowing 3 ER in each with just 7 total strikeouts with Teoscar Hernandez being my favorite TOR play on FD and if Zack Collins starts and hits 5th or 6th I like his price on DK. Other stacks that I’d look at are the Rays, Dodgers, and Astros and for GPP’s the Angels, Brewers, and Tigers.
CHW/NYY IS PPD!!!!!!
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with Josh Donaldson ($3,200) and Gleyber Torres ($2,500) for cheap Yankees exposure and depending on salary needs I definitely want either Aaron Judge ($4,500) and/or Giancarlo Stanton ($3,700) too. Rowdy Tellez and Andrew McCutchen are both $2,800 and a very affordable way to get some Brewers exposure who have a 4.7 team total currently while Christian Yelich ($3,500) is also looking a bit too cheap. I want some Rays and Blue Jays exposure in cash games too with Teoscar Hernandez ($3,000) definitely making my main build while Randy Arozarena ($2,800) and Wander Franco ($3,300) are my favorite Rays plays for the price. Other FD bats I’m liking for the price are Carlos Correa ($3,200), Anthony Santander ($2,800), Justin Turner ($2,900), Kyle Garlick ($2,000), Hunter Dozier ($2,700), Kole Calhoun ($2,200), and Luis Urias ($2,900).
CHW/NYY IS PPD!!!!!!
Looking at DraftKings Anthony Santander for $3,000 is probably my favorite value play with three HR’s in his last four games and on the other side of that game I really like the price of Kevin Kiermaier at $3,100. Kole Calhoun ($2,600) and Kyle Garlick ($2,000) are a couple extremely cheap OF’s to help fit in some expensive bats and Calhoun is on fire lately with four HR’s in his last five games. The Tigers have some of the best hitting weather today against Civale who has been getting pummeled this year so if you want some DET exposure Miguel Cabrera ($3,000) and Jeimer Candelario ($3,100) are a very cheap mini-stack with some decent upside. Some other cheap DK bats I’m considering include Brad Miller ($3,100), Ramon Laureano ($2,600), Emmanuel Rivera ($2,100), Jesse Winker ($3,100), and Tyler Nevin ($2,600).
CHW/NYY IS PPD!!!!!!
For pitching it’s a tough choice between Sean Manaea and Nestor Cortes for me as both have 10+ strikeout upside but I’m leaning Cortes as he has the same matchup he just dominated in and should have more run support behind him to get a win. Chase Silseth is my favorite cheaper option as he gets to face Oakland for the 2nd time in a row but this time he’s at home and he was excellent the first time around going 6 IP / 0 ER / 4 K’s. For GPP’s I’m looking at Eric Lauer, Tarik Skubal, and Robbie Ray and on DK it wouldn’t be crazy to take a shot on Martin Perez at $7k who should be extremely low-owned but he hasn’t allowed more than 1 ER in his last five starts with 4-7 strikeouts in each.
CHW/NYY IS PPD!!!!!!
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn