MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 5/27/2022
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
COL/WAS has a couple lines of storms around first pitch and towards the end of the game so we’ll see if there’s any window to get this game in while CLE/DET & PHI/NYM are looking like they should play on time or after a slight delay.
BAL/BOS should have 12-16mph winds out to center while TEX/OAK, TOR/LAA, MIA/ATL, CLE/DET, and COL/WSH have ~4-8mph winds blowing out. HOU/SEA, LAD/ARI, and NYY/TBR are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for PIT/SDP are -13.8% while total runs for BAL/BOS are +12.3%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Ronald Acuna is already confirmed out today so look for Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson to hit at the top of the order against the lefty Rogers. With Stanton and Donaldson on the IL guys like Miguel Andujar and Marwin Gonzalez should continue to start against lefties and Andujar is a strong value play hitting cleanup today while LeMahieu and Hicks will remain out today. Franmil Reyes just went on the IL so Richie Palacios and/or Oscar Gonzalez should start today and Kyle Isbel is on the IL now too so Ryan O’Hearn or Brewer Hicklen should be in for him. It’s sounding like Max Muncy could land on the IL with his elbow injury so don’t expect to see him any time soon but Taylor Ward is getting closer to a return but for now we’re leaning likely still out today and keep an eye on the status of Shohei Ohtani dealing with back stiffness.
After putting up 16 and 14 runs yesterday the Red Sox and Dodgers should be popular stacks today and for good reason as they both have team totals over 5 currently and are facing pretty mediocre pitchers in Bradish and Bumgarner. Trevor Story is the hottest hitter on the planet with 7 HR’s in his last 7 games and is too cheap on FD while Enrique Hernandez and Alex Verdugo are looking like excellent value plays on both sites at their current prices. The Dodgers are very pricey on DK but on FD I think we can fit in at least 3-4 with Justin Turner and Chris Taylor at very cheap prices. The Braves are also looking like a very solid stack against the lefty Rogers who just allowed 5 ER and 3 HR’s in his last start against ATL seven days ago and lastly I’m liking the Twins as a lower-owned stack option at home against Brad Keller who has allowed 12 ER over his last three starts.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel there are a lot of great value plays so it should be very easy to fit in Verlander, Manaea, or Bieber as your SP today. I definitely want Red Sox and Dodgers exposure in my main build so I’m starting with Enrique Hernandez ($2,900), Alex Verdugo ($2,700), Justin Turner ($3,000), and Chris Taylor ($2,800) for value and then I’m spending up on Trevor Story ($4,000), JD Martinez ($3,900), Mookie Betts ($4,600), or Trea Turner ($4,200) depending on positional needs and salary available. Other really cheap value bats to consider include Lane Thomas ($2,300), Nelson Cruz ($2,900), Teoscar Hernandez ($2,700), Marcus Semien ($2,500), Miguel Andujar ($2,000), and Trevor Larnach ($2,000).
Looking at DraftKings Enrique Hernandez ($3,500) and Alex Verdugo ($3,300) are the first guys I’m locking in as they’re way too cheap on my top stack tonight and with the great hitting conditions in Boston tonight I’d consider Anthony Santander ($3,400) or Ryan Mountcastle ($2,700) at excellent prices. Kevin Kiermaier should continue to hit leadoff against righties and is a nice option at $3,000 while Lane Thomas is in play at $2,700 against the lefty Gomber and Nelson Cruz is still pretty cheap at just $3,700. Other DK bats I’m looking at are Miguel Andujar ($2,100), Mark Canha ($3,200), Carlos Santana ($2,000), Trevor Larnach ($2,300), Wil Myers ($3,000), and Luke Voit ($2,900).
For pitching Shane Bieber is my SP1 on both sites as he’s too cheap at $9k and $8.6 on DK and FD respectively in the same matchup against DET as his last start where he had 10 strikeouts over 7 innings. After Bieber there are some great options in Verlander, Manaea, Manoah, and Woodruff all around $10k but I’m leaning Verlander and Manaea as the top SP2s as their opponents have team totals under 3 currently and their strikeout upside has been higher than Manoah and Woodruff lately. For cheap GPP options I’d consider Jon Gray, Cole Irvin, and Bailey Ober.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn