MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 6/14/2022
FD has a 14-game main slate today while DK is including game 2 of the PIT/STL doubleheader so they have 15 games. It’s also one of the best weather slates we’ve seen this year with no rain to worry about and some fantastic hitting conditions in a couple places.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
No rain anywhere! Heat and wind take center stage today and the game with the best combo of both is SDP/CHC with 90+ degree temps and 10-15mph winds blowing out which should be a recipe for runs and HRs. We also have Coors field in play with the Guardians in town and although there’s a slight breeze blowing in from left it will still be 75-80 degrees and great hitting weather. PIT/STL game 2 will have ~10mph winds out to left but temps in the high 90s while KCR/SFG & LAA/LAD both have slight breezes out to center but temps under 70. BAL/TOR, HOU/TEX, CIN/ARI, and MIN/SEA are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for SDP/CHC are +113.5%!!! while total runs for SDP/CHC are +43.1%!!!.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Josh Donaldson will serve his 1-game suspension tonight so he won’t be available in any capacity which makes it pretty much a guarantee we see Matt Carpenter in the lineup today. Ozzie Albies broke his left foot yesterday so he will be out indefinitely and Orlando Arcia should get most of the 2B starts along with newly promoted Phil Gosselin. Castellanos will be back in there after getting a breather yesterday but Anthony Santander will be out for the entire Toronto series as an unvaccinated player so McKenna and Stowers should platoon in his absence. Jonathan India is off the IL and should be in the lineup today either at 2B or DH and although Brandon Belt might be ready to return he could get another day with the Giants facing a lefty tonight. Taylor Ward is expected to return tonight for the Angels and should get his leadoff spot back right away and also in that game Chris Taylor will get the night off for LAD after a recent collision.
There are so many stacks I love today with the combo of great hitting weather and a lot of mediocre pitching but a couple teams are really standing out above the rest. Wrigley Field has some of the best hitting conditions of the season today but Sean Manaea is still a great pitcher so I probably won’t go too heavy on Cubs bats but I love the Padres against Kyle Hendricks who has really struggled of late allowing 14 ER over his last three starts with just 5 total strikeouts in that span. It’s a similar situation in Coors Field with great hitting weather but a top pitcher going in Shane Bieber so the Rockies won’t be too high on my radar but the Guardians have to be a top stack today against Senzatela who is coming off a pretty good start in SF but before that game hadn’t had more than 3 strikeouts in any start. The Blue Jays, Braves, and Yankees are my next favorite stacks and on most slates would be the top stacks but I have to go heavy on the Padres and Guardians in these hitting conditions and on DraftKings game 2 of the PIT/STL doubleheader will be almost 100 degrees with wind blowing out to left and against Bryse Wilson the Cardinals are easily a top stack as well. I also like the Phillies, Red Sox, Mets, White Sox, and Astros as low-owned stacks today.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with Manny Machado ($3,800) and Eric Hosmer ($2,400) in the best hitting conditions of the slate and the two of them have never struck out in 29 combined career AB’s against Hendricks so they should put the ball in play with a great chance of at least 1 HR between them in the Wrigley Field heat and wind and Trent Grisham is hitting leadoff tonight and is a great play at just $2,500. Jose Ramirez ($4,600) should be one of the highest-owned hitters of the slate and for good reason but for cheaper Guardians exposure I like Amed Rosario ($2,900), Oscar Gonzalez ($2,800), and Josh Naylor ($3,300). Next I want some NYY, ATL, and TOR exposure with Giancarlo Stanton ($3,500), Matt Olson ($3,300), and Teoscar Hernandez ($2,500) my favorite plays from each team for the price. There are so many great options today but I have to mention some guys I love that are way too cheap in Jose Abreu ($2,900), Luis Robert ($3,100), Marcell Ozuna ($2,700), Nick Castellanos ($2,700), Brandon Nimmo ($2,900), Luke Voit ($2,900), Joey Votto ($3,000), and Max Muncy ($2,700).
Looking at DraftKings the first bat I’m locking in is Oscar Gonzalez hitting cleanup in Coors for just $2,900 and no other Guardian’s bat hitting in the top 7 of the order is under $4k. Eric Hosmer is the next bat I’m locking in for just $2,600 and if he’s in the lineup for game 2 of the doubleheader Tyler ONeill is too cheap to fade at $3,200. There are a lot of cheap leadoff hitters I’m looking at in Trent Grisham ($2,600), Rob Refsnyder ($2,200), Brandon Nimmo ($3,700), Jonathan India ($3,500), and Austin Slater ($2,900) as I’m always looking for guys who might get an extra at-bat. More DK bats to consider at nice salaries include Lourdes Gurriel ($3,400), Yoan Moncada ($3,300), Luke Voit ($3,400), Mike Moustakas ($2,600), and Carlos Santana ($2,300).
Gerrit Cole is my SP1 on both sites against the Rays who he just had 10 strikeouts against a few starts ago but Dylan Cease is pretty close behind him as a favorite play against DET especially on DK where he is just $8,800 and a great SP2 option. Sean Manaea and Shane Bieber are the ultimate GPP options today pitching in great hitting conditions which should drive ownership way down while Max Fried and Nick Pivetta should be pretty low-owned with the other options available but both have elite upside today while Logan Webb and Tony Gonsolin are both solid options too but one guy I like taking a chance on in GPP’s is Tyler Mahle especially on DK for just $7,500 in the same matchup as his last start where he had 10 strikeouts and just 1 ER against ARI.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn