MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 6/22/2022
We have a 9-game main slate today and after a nice streak of great weather rain is back on our radar but mainly for just one game.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
Our biggest concern today is with WSH/BAL as all outcomes are a possibility depending on how these scattered rainstorms move closer to game time so make sure to keep checking the weather page and Roth’s updates but for now it’s definitely the most risky game to target players from. CHC/PIT might see a late start but the game should be played fully today.
The best game for wind and heat is SFG/ATL looking at 10mph winds out to left-center and temps in the mid 90s. CHC/PIT has a slight breeze blowing out to right with temps in the mid 80’s and CLE/MIN is similar with ~5mph wind out to center and temps in the mid 80s. NYY/TBR & STL/MIL are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for CHC/PIT are +8% while total runs for DET/BOS are +3%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
The Red Sox are resting Rafael Devers today in order to get Jeter Downs a start at 3B and Jarren Duran will remain at leadoff even against the lefty Skubal. Paul Goldschmidt is back in there at DH after sitting yesterday with back tightness but Salvador Perez re-aggravated a thumb injury and is likely out today and potentially much longer and Brandon Crawford jammed his knee yesterday so he is out today. Mike Trout, Christopher Morel, Austin Riley, Byron Buxton, Cedric Mullins, KeBryan Hayes, Jack Suwinski, Franmil Reyes, and Jeimer Candelario are getting days off today.
I have to go with the Angels as my favorite stack today as nothing else is really jumping out at me as we have a lot of really solid pitching going today and LAA is one of the only teams with a team total currently near 5 runs. They broke out yesterday with 11 runs and although their opponent today Daniel Lynch was great in his last start against OAK he had allowed 16 ER over his previous 3 starts so that’s the guy we’re more likely to see against a much tougher Angels lineup. Eric Lauer has struggled over his last couple starts with 12 ER and just 7 total strikeouts so the Cardinals are in play as a stack for me and with the great hitting weather I like taking a shot on the Cubs and Pirates along with the Orioles if that game gets played.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel Taylor Ward is still way too cheap at just $2,900 and is the first guy I’m locking in and altough Oneil Cruz got priced up to $2,700 I still think he’s a top value play especially with him hitting leadoff tonight along with Bryan Reynolds ($2,900), Daniel Vogelbach ($2,600), and Bligh Madris who is still minimum price at $2k and is hitting 3rd tonight. One name that hasn’t been on my radar for a while is the Guardians’ Steven Kwan who looks to have taken the leadoff spot from Straw against righties and delivered right away with 4 hits yesterday and if he hits leadoff today he will be hard to fade for just $2,100 with HR and SB upside. Javier Baez looks to have figured something out at the plate and is currently on a 6-game hitting streak with a triple and an HR last night and for just $2,800 he is one of my favorite guys to use at 2B/SS. Some more value bats to consider are Rafael Ortega ($2,200), Jeter Downs ($2,000), Max Kepler ($2,500), Juan Yepez ($2,300), Jesse Winker ($2,700), and Matt Duffy ($2,200).
Looking at DraftKings Ward ($4,300) is much much pricier than FD but is still a solid play today and the Pirates are where I’m going for value again with Daniel Vogelbach ($2,700) and Oneil Cruz ($2,700) being my favorite plays as they priced Bligh Madris up to $3,600 but he is still a solid play. I still like Steven Kwan if he hits leadoff for $3,100 and Javier Baez has a very affordable price at $4,000 but my favorite value plays for Detroit are Riley Greene ($2,100) and Robbie Grossman ($2,300). Other DK bats I like for the price include Albert Pujols ($2,000), Dylan Carlson ($2,700), Jeter Downs ($2,000), Trey Mancini ($3,300), Jesse Winker ($3,300), and Matt Duffy ($2,500)
For pitching Shohei Ohtani is my SP1 on both sites as he should get nice run support and the Royals offense doesn’t scare me along with the fact he is just way too cheap on DK for $8,500. Speaking of too cheap Jordan Montgomery on DK for $7,400 is an absolute lock for the SP2 spot at that price so getting two great pitchers for under $16k combined is looking like the way to go on DK. Other pitchers I like include George Kirby and Charlie Morton and for GPP’s I like Carlos Rodon, Shane Baz, and Tarik Skubal.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn