MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 7/1/22
We have a solid 10-game slate to end the week and start July with a couple rain spots to monitor along with some wind blowing out in Coors and great hitting weather in a lot of games so I’m expecting some offensive fireworks heading in to the 4th of July weekend! (disclaimer: please use fireworks responsibly).
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
KCR/DET will have widespread rain in the area but storms should gradually clear during the evening so they could try to late start and play a for a couple hours or postpone it early if it doesn’t look like rain will clear enough later so probably best to avoid this game in general. NYY/CLE is looking at a batch of heavy rain very close to the park so a few miles will determine if they can play or not and with Gerrit Cole going this is a very important game to monitor throughout the day. ARI/COL has a slight change of a delay and MIL/PIT should get the game in before showers arrive later in the evening.
The best hitting weather is in TEX/NYM with 80+ degree heat and 10-15mph winds blowing out to left center and BAL/MIN is similar with 75-80 degree temps and 8-12mph winds out to right center. ARI/COL will see ~12mph winds out to center with mid 70s temps and SDP/LAD has about 10mph winds out to center and 65-70 degree temps. OAK/SEA & LAA/HOU are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for ARI/COL are +10.1% while total runs for TEX/NYM are +34.8%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Manny Machado returned last night at DH and should be in there today at DH again and if so either Luke Voit or Eric Hosmer will likely sit as only one can play 1B. Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena both missed yesterday’s game in the concussion protocol but Pena will return to the lineup tonight while Alvarez will be out again. JP Crawford began serving his suspension yesterday and will remain out today and we’ll see if any other Mariners begin serving suspensions today.
I’ll get to Coors field in a bit but my favorite stack today is the Twins at home in great hitting weather against the righty Watkins who has had just one start with more than 3 strikeouts this season and a lot of the Twins bats are very affordable on both sites. Close behind the Twins are the Mets also hitting in excellent weather against Otto who just got shelled for 6 ER his last start and has just one game with over 4 strikeouts over his last seven starts. After those two I’ll go to Coors where the D-backs are crazy cheap on FD and have a few really affordable bats on DK making them probably the best “value” stack of the day and for the Rockies they have a slightly tougher matchup against Kelly who has had his moments this season but can still get easily blown up making COL a top five stack today. If the Yankees game plays then they are definitely in play as a stack against Civale while the Astros, Dodgers, and Mariners are some of my favorite GPP stacks.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with Luis Arraez ($3,000) and Max Kepler ($2,700) as my favorite value on my favorite stack of the day while Carlos Correa ($3,400) and Alex Kirilloff ($2,400) both have nice salaries as well and if you can fit Byron Buxton ($3,800) he’s always the highest upside Twins bat. The Diamondbacks have so much value to choose from that it’s going to be hard to not use the max 4 bats from them in cash games with Josh Rojas ($2,700), Alek Thomas ($2,700), Ketel Marte ($2,900), and David Peralta ($2,500) all with the platoon advantage and just insanely cheap prices while Christian Walker ($3,100) is still super cheap if you need a bat at 1B or UTIL. For the Rockies I like the prices of Connor Joe ($3,300) and Charlie Blackmon ($3,400) while Kris Bryant ($3,600) and CJ Cron ($4,100) are more GPP options for me today. Other FD value to consider includes Josh Donaldson ($2,600), Brandon Nimmo ($3,000), Adley Rutschman ($2,700), Alex Bregman ($3,100), Justin Turner ($3,000), Ramon Laureano ($2,500), Jose Miranda ($2,100), and Yoan Moncada ($2,500).
Looking at DraftKings my favorite values right now are Alex Kirilloff ($2,800), Alek Thomas ($3,500), and David Peralta ($3,700) while Christian Walker ($4,200), Buddy Kennedy ($2,200), and Connor Joe ($4,200) are close behind for top Coors value. More cheap DK bats I like are Rowdy Tellez ($3,400), Andrew McCutchen ($3,200), Ryan McMahon ($3,500), Nick Allen ($2,000), Yoan Moncada ($2,400), Abraham Toro ($3,400), Jose Miranda ($2,500), and Carlos Santana ($3,300).
Corbin Burnes is my SP1 on both sites against PIT and if the NYY/CLE game clears up and looks like it won’t have any rain issues I will do my best to squeeze in Gerrit Cole with Burnes on DK. Cristian Javier, Joe Ryan, and David Peterson are in the next tier of solid pitching options and I might even drop down to Javier as my SP2 on DK if I need the extra salary for bats. For cheap GPP options I like taking a shot on Marco Gonzales, Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb, and on DK Roansy Contreras for $6,800 is worth a lineup or two.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn