MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 7/7/22
We have a 9-game main slate on FanDuel today and a 10-gamer on DraftKings as they are including game 2 of the PIT/CIN doubleheader.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
STL/ATL has the most concern for rain which could cause a mid-game delay but bats should be safe while LAA/BAL & DET/CHW have rain in the surrounding area but for now both games should be fine.
With temps in the mid 80s and about 65% humidity, STL/ATL has the best hitting weather with LAA/BAL and PIT/CIN game 2 close behind with temps in the high 70s-low 80s and high humidity. COL/ARI and TOR/SEA are in domes.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for STL/ATL are +30.3% while total runs for NYY/BOS are +10.6%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
Rafael Devers is back for Boston but Anthony Rizzo remains out for the Yankees and Aaron Judge is also getting a day off while the Orioles will get back Ryan Mountcastle who was dealing with a sinus issue for a couple games. Adam Duvall will return for the Braves after missing a few games while Evan Longoria landed on the 10-day IL yesterday so David Villar and Wilmer Flores should handle 3B for now. Jesse Winker is still serving his suspension so he remains out for Seattle but Ty France is on track to return from the IL today and we’ll see if Willson Contreras is ready to return from his hamstring tightness.
The Braves are my top stack today facing the lefty Liberatore who has allowed 9 ER and 3 HRs over his last two starts with just four total strikeouts. The Dodgers are my next top stack with the Yankees and Blue Jays close behind them and some lower-owned stacks to take a shot on are the White Sox, Angels, Marlins, Rockies, and Diamondbacks.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m going to be a broken record but Max Muncy is still a top value play at $2,700 while Betts, Freeman, and Turner are all pretty affordable at just over $4k. For the Braves Marcell Ozuna ($3,200) is my favorite play for the price and I’d rank the expensive righties to target as Acuna, Riley, then Swanson. For the Yankees Giancarlo Stanton is the top bat at $3,700 with Judge getting the night off while Josh Donaldson ($2,500) is still a great value option and for cheap Jays exposure I’m looking at Bo Bichette ($3,500) and Teoscar Hernandez ($3,100). The D-Backs offer some nice value at the top of the order against the lefty Gomber in Jordan Luplow ($2,300) and Cooper Hummel ($2,400) and lower in the order we have Buddy Kennedy ($2,300) and Carson Kelly ($2,300) all with the platoon advantage. After returning off the IL yesterday Eloy Jimenez went for almost 30 FP and has a great price of just $2,900 today if you need some more OF value and AJ Pollock is hitting 2nd for just $2,400. Other bats I like for the price include Jonathan Villar ($2,200), Yoan Moncada ($2,500), Aaron Hicks ($2,400), Gleyber Torres ($2,800), Matt Chapman ($3,000), JP Crawford ($2,700), Eugenio Suarez ($3,000), and Cody Bellinger ($2,600).
Looking at DraftKings the D-Backs offer some nice value again with Luplow ($2,500), Hummel ($2,600), Kennedy ($2,000), and Kelly ($2,300) along with Christian Walker ($3,800) if you want a little more upside and have the salary for it. Betts, Trea, and Freeman are all $5k+ and not a priority for me but Max Muncy is still very affordable at $4,400 along with Cody Bellinger ($3,700) and Jake Lamb ($2,300) for cheap LAD exposure. The Braves are similar with Acuna, Riley, and Swanson all $5k+ but Marcell Ozuna remains my favorite ATL bat at just $4,000. Stanton is expensive at $5,400 but Donaldson is still a great price at $3,800 and Aaron Hicks is an excellent value play at just $2,500. More DK value to consider includes AJ Pollock ($3,600), Yoan Moncada ($3,000), Lourdes Gurriel ($3,600), Matt Chapman ($3,600), Cal Raleigh ($3,500), and Yonathan Daza ($2,900).
We have some great pitching options today starting with Gerrit Cole and Dylan Cease who I will try to jam in as my cash game combo on DK and on FD I’m giving the slight edge to Cease as he’s at home with a better matchup against DET. Joe Musgrove, Tony Gonsolin, and Logan Webb are all in play as well if you want lower ownership and high upside options. Lastly Spencer Strider is at a great price around $8.5k on both sites but there is some risk of a mid-game rain delay and we saw what happened with Kyle Wright the other day having to come out after 4 innings because of a rain delay so I don’t think we need to risk that happening at his price with the other great options in safer weather conditions but Strider does make for an excellent GPP play.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn