MLB DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values 8/15/22
We’re starting the week with a 10-game slate and just a couple minor rain spots to monitor.
This is a daily weekday MLB article that can hopefully show you some new tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings MLB DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS MLB such as stacking a lineup or targeting guys higher in the order and more likely to see an extra at-bat and we always need to find value bats that are constantly changing each slate that allow us to fit as many guys that we know are more likely to hit HR’s and get those ceiling games we need to win tournaments. I will be focusing on the “main slate” of the day but you can still find plenty of analysis for “early slate” games on RG and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for MLB, including our industry-leading MLB DFS projections and MLB lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
MLB DFS Weather Check
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for how weather will impact the slate so we know if we want to target certain games or avoid ones with too much risk. Two tools to use are are the MLB Weather Report and MLB WeatherEdge which are both managed by RG’s weather expert Kevin Roth who you should follow on twitter for up-to-the-minute weather news.
CHC/WAS & NYM/ATL have showers near the stadiums tonight that could cause a delay or late start but for now both games are expected to play but check back on these two if you plan on using any pitchers in them. NYM/ATL is also the hottest game of the day with temps in the mid 80s and 5-8mph wind blowing out to left while almost every other game will be in the high 60s to mid 70s. The dome games today are BAL/TOR, OAK/TEX, and LAD/MIL.
Always take a look at MLB WeatherEdge to see how a wide range of statistics from games in similar weather conditions (since 2000) are more or less likely to occur based on todays weather in that specific ballpark. Today we see home runs for HOU/CHW are +9.2% while total runs for CHC/WSH are +10.5%.
MLB Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at MLB Starting Lineups to see what the likely batting orders are today (main slate for this article) as well as which teams I’m looking to stack. The projected lineups will usually be pretty consistent day-to-day with the main changes occurring based on the opposing pitcher being a righty or lefty as well as some guys more likely to get a day off if playing a day game after a night game.
We have a good amount of questionable guys today who are either close to returning from injury or sustained ones over the weekend in Luis Robert (OUT), Brandon Lowe (IN), Ryan Mountcastle (IN), Ramon Laureano (OUT), Ketel Marte (OUT), and Luis Guillorme (OUT) so expect some of those guys to be out today while Luis Garcia will definitely be out as he landed on the IL and CJ Abrams was called up to take his place for WSH. Brian Snitker confirmed that Ronald Acuna will start tonight (knee soreness) and also confirmed that Travis d’Arnaud will return to the lineup after missing a week with his leg injury. DJ Lemahieu is still out with his toe injury and Gleyber Torres will hit leadoff today and George Springer will come off the IL today hitting leadoff and Lourdes Gurriel will hit 3rd with Alejandro Kirk getting a day off. The Royals also just placed Hunter Dozier on the paternity list so he’ll likely be out a couple games including today and the Astros are giving Altuve the day off so Mauricio Dubon will bat leadoff today.
The Blue Jays are my top stack today at home against the mediocre righty Bradish and, after them, there isn’t really an obvious next-best stack as we have a lot of really strong pitching going today. The Astros and Dodgers are facing a couple solid righties in Cueto and Peralta but are always stackable. Meanwhile, the Yankees and Twins are in a similar spot facing solid lefties in Beeks/Yarbrough and Bubic but are still in play for stacks. Other stacks I don’t mind taking shots on are BAL, TEX, and SFG.
Make sure to follow the RG MLB Twitter feed for todays confirmed lineups as well as our DFS Alerts page for important news and analysis.
MLB DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for the projected lineups, weather, and strong stacks to consider let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel I’m starting with a couple TOR bats in Lourdes Gurriel ($3,000) and Teoscar Hernandez ($3,500) at cleanup while Bo Bichette ($3,300) and Matt Chapman ($3,200) make for solid value plays too while Vladimir Guerrero ($4,000) is expensive but always in play as one of the highest upside bats of the slate. I don’t know what happened with Marcus Semien but his salary dropped from $3.3k to $2.4k overnight making him my favorite value play of the slate and if you need some extreme value I like Ryan McKenna ($2,100), Emmanuel Rivera ($2,000), Mauricio Dubon ($2,000), Michael Massey ($2,300), and Miguel Andujar ($2,000). Even though the Dodgers don’t have the greatest matchup, I still like the prices of Max Muncy ($3,300) and Gavin Lux ($3,000) and the same can be said for Carlos Correa ($3,000) and Vinnie Pasquantino ($2,700). More value bats in play for me are Josh Donaldson ($2,500), Ian Happ ($3,100), Seiya Suzuki ($2,900), Franmil Reyes ($2,700), Nick Madrigal ($2,600), Joey Meneses ($2,000), Yuli Gurriel ($2,500), AJ Pollock ($2,400), Evan Longoria ($2,300), and JD Davis ($2,600).
Looking at DraftKings my favorite overall play for the price is Vinnie Pasquantino who is still just $2,100 even after homering again yesterday giving him four in his last six games and my favorite stat of his is he’s struck out just once over his last six games so for a guy who is walking or putting the ball in play at a high clip he’s a no brainer at basically minimum price with the platoon advantage today. The Blue Jays bats are priced up a bit compared to FD but I still like Gurriel ($4,200) and Hernandez ($5,200) along with Bichette ($4,800) and Chapman ($4,700) while some extreme value bats to consider today still include Massey ($2,000) and McKenna ($2,000) but also Nick Madrigal ($2,100), Yadiel Hernandez ($2,000), Nate Eaton ($2,000), Mauricio Dubon ($2,500), and Emmanuel Rivera ($2,300). Other bats to consider for the price include Franmil Reyes ($2,900), Joey Meneses ($3,100), Austin Hays ($3,300), Ramon Urias ($3,000), Jose Miranda ($3,500), Nate Lowe ($2,900), Yuli Gurriel ($3,300), and JD Davis ($2,800).
Gerrit Cole is my SP1 on both sites in a matchup with the Rays who he has faced three times this season and has 29 K’s with just two ERs (and no HRs). Luis Castillo is my favorite SP2 on DK at just $9,200, while Joe Ryan ($7,300), Alex Cobb ($7k) and Kris Bubic ($6.7k) are my favorite cheap options there. Shohei Ohtani and Spencer Strider wouldn’t shock anyone if either are the top scoring SPs of the slate, so definitely use them in GPPs if they don’t make your cash lineup. Meanwhile, Urias, Carrasco, and Urquidy are other great GPP options.
Keep checking LineupHQ as we start getting the confirmed lineups and projections change based off the batting order or guys getting a day off and we learn their replacement. The best p/$ plays are usually pretty consistent throughout the day for MLB but can always change if someone is hitting higher in the order than initially projected or a cheap value play gets a spot start for an injured/resting player.
MLB DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough last-minute decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to watch MLB Crunch Time and follow the Plate IQ Live Blog later in the day.
Good luck today!
Image Credit: Imagn