MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 28th - Page Three

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-08-28 18:45:28

Cincinnati at Milwaukee – 8:10 PM EST

Cincinnati					Milwaukee
			Raisel Iglesias					Taylor Jungmann
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIL (-132)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.305	0.771	0.342	0.132	SP vs. Left	0.241	0.635	0.281	0.236
SP vs. Right	0.158	0.576	0.255	0.36	SP vs. Right	0.216	0.64	0.285	0.215
Batter Splits	CIN BvP		CIN vs R		Batter Splits			MIL vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Raisel Iglesias : FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,800

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 73.1 — SIERA: 3.34 — ERA: 3.93 — K%: 25.3% — BB%: 6.9% — HR/9: 0.9
Last 30 Days: IP: 32.2 — SIERA: 2.62 — ERA: 1.93 — K%: 29.2% — BB%: 6.7% — HR/9: 0.8

Milwaukee Brewers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.308 (Rank: 18) — Strikeout Rate: 20.7% (Rank: 21)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 17) — Strikeout Rate: 22.3% (Rank: 23)
Pitches per PA: 3.73 (Rank: 26)

Analysis: Iglesias has been terrific over the last month of play, posting a 2.62 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29.2%. His high strikeout potential makes him an appealing target for tournaments, especially considering the fact that the Brewers have the tenth-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. At his price point, I don’t mind using him in tournaments and he’s not the worst SP2 available on DraftKings.

Pitcher Rating: 70.2

Taylor Jungmann : FD: $8,200 — DK: $8,700

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 84.2 — SIERA: 3.76 — ERA: 2.66 — K%: 22.5% — BB%: 8.4% — HR/9: 0.3
Last 30 Days: IP: 25.2 — SIERA: 3.32 — ERA: 3.86 — K%: 28.1% — BB%: 8.8% — HR/9: 0.4

Cincinnati Reds Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.305 (Rank: 23) — Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 10)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.305 (Rank: 24) — Strikeout Rate: 20.9% (Rank: 16)
Pitches per PA: 3.77 (Rank: 23)

Analysis: Jungmann has pitched well in his rookie season, posting a 3.76 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22.5%. He draws a mediocre matchup tonight against the Reds, who are ranked 23rd in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Jungmann may not have the same upside of Raisel Iglesias, but he has a better chance to pick up the win. He is also a strong tournament option tonight.

Pitcher Rating: 72.6

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds draw a difficult matchup tonight against Taylor Jungmann, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA over the last two seasons. Joey Votto and Todd Frazier are in play in this hitter-friendly ballpark, but they are both secondary options at their respective positions.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Joey Votto : FD: $4,600 — DK: $5,300

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 587 — wOBA: 0.393 — ISO: 0.194 — wRC+: 150
Last 30 Days: PA: 121 — wOBA: 0.490 — ISO: 0.337 — wRC+: 215

Todd Frazier : FD: $2,900 — DK: $4,700

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 1B/3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 918 — wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.203 — wRC+: 119
Last 30 Days: PA: 114 — wOBA: 0.274 — ISO: 0.139 — wRC+: 68

Milwaukee

The Brewers draw a difficult matchup tonight against Raisel Iglesias, who has been striking out batters left and right in his last few starts. Iglesias has given up a .342 wOBA to left-handed hitters though, which puts Adam Lind and Scooter Gennett in play.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Adam Lind : FD: $3,500 — DK: $4,000

Position Eligibility: FD: 1B — DK: 1B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 652 — wOBA: 0.391 — ISO: 0.200 — wRC+: 149
Last 30 Days: PA: 98 — wOBA: 0.291 — ISO: 0.092 — wRC+: 78

Scooter Gennett : FD: $2,200 — DK: $3,100

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 688 — wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.152 — wRC+: 107
Last 30 Days: PA: 85 — wOBA: 0.290 — ISO: 0.143 — wRC+: 78

Houston at Minnesota – 8:10 PM EST

Houston					Minnesota
			Scott Kazmir					Kyle Gibson
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU (-129)					8
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.261	0.682	0.302	0.191	SP vs. Left	0.254	0.692	0.308	0.123
SP vs. Right	0.216	0.614	0.274	0.223	SP vs. Right	0.256	0.703	0.309	0.186
Batter Splits	HOU BvP		HOU vs R		Batter Splits	MIN BvP		MIN vs L
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Scott Kazmir : FD: $9,000 — DK: $9,500

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 337.1 — SIERA: 3.71 — ERA: 3.04 — K%: 21.5% — BB%: 7.1% — HR/9: 0.7
Last 30 Days: IP: 30.1 — SIERA: 4.04 — ERA: 2.97 — K%: 20.5% — BB%: 8.3% — HR/9: 1.2

Minnesota Twins Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.310 (Rank: 13) — Strikeout Rate: 20.1% (Rank: 10)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 18) — Strikeout Rate: 24.9% (Rank: 30)
Pitches per PA: 3.81 (Rank: 16)

Analysis: Kazmir is a pitcher that rarely finds himself in my lineups. It’s nothing personal, he just always seems a bit overpriced for his matchup. He has been in decent form recently, posting a 4.04 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.5% over the last month of play. He draws a fairly tough matchup tonight against the Twins, who are ranked above the major league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season.

Pitcher Rating: 64.3

Kyle Gibson : FD: $6,500 — DK: $6,200

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 331.2 — SIERA: 4.19 — ERA: 4.23 — K%: 15.3% — BB%: 7.8% — HR/9: 0.8
Last 30 Days: IP: 28.1 — SIERA: 4.85 — ERA: 6.35 — K%: 14.7% — BB%: 10.1% — HR/9: 1.3

Houston Astros Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.316 (Rank: 12) — Strikeout Rate: 24.0% (Rank: 30)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.300 (Rank: 28) — Strikeout Rate: 24.6% (Rank: 28)
Pitches per PA: 3.88 (Rank: 6)

Analysis: Gibson has not been in great form over the last month of play, posting a 6.35 SIERA (4.85 ERA) with a strikeout rate of only 14.7%. We rarely like to target pitchers that are in bad form, especially when they are facing a potent offense like the Astros. Gibson should be avoided in all league formats tonight.

Pitcher Rating: 39.6

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros draw a decent matchup tonight against Kyle Gibson. While he hasn’t been in the best of form, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 wOBA over the last two seasons. The Astros should be considered secondary fantasy options tonight.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Carlos Correa : FD: $3,900 — DK: $4,800

Position Eligibility: FD: SS — DK: SS
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 204 — wOBA: 0.356 — ISO: 0.217 — wRC+: 128
Last 30 Days: PA: 116 — wOBA: 0.370 — ISO: 0.230 — wRC+: 138

Colby Rasmus : FD: $2,900 — DK: $3,400

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 552 — wOBA: 0.321 — ISO: 0.230 — wRC+: 104
Last 30 Days: PA: 93 — wOBA: 0.320 — ISO: 0.220 — wRC+: 103

Minnesota

The Twins draw a difficult matchup tonight against Scott Kazmir, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 wOBA over the last two seasons. Miguel Sano and Brian Dozier are both decent tournament targets, but they can safely be avoided in cash games.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Miguel Sano : FD: $4,500 — DK: $5,100

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 55 — wOBA: 0.300 — ISO: 0.143 — wRC+: 89
Last 30 Days: PA: 120 — wOBA: 0.421 — ISO: 0.333 — wRC+: 173

Brian Dozier : FD: $3,200 — DK: $4,300

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. LH Pitching: PA: 368 — wOBA: 0.351 — ISO: 0.212 — wRC+: 125
Last 30 Days: PA: 122 — wOBA: 0.265 — ISO: 0.167 — wRC+: 64

Oakland at Arizona – 9:40 PM EST

Oakland					Arizona
			Sonny Gray					Chase Anderson
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			OAK (-107)					7.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.204	0.588	0.265	0.218	SP vs. Left	0.247	0.736	0.322	0.179
SP vs. Right	0.23	0.592	0.265	0.195	SP vs. Right	0.284	0.79	0.343	0.193
Batter Splits	OAK BvP		OAK vs R		Batter Splits	ARI BvP		ARI vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Sonny Gray : FD: $10,600 — DK: $10,700

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 394.1 — SIERA: 3.55 — ERA: 2.65 — K%: 20.8% — BB%: 7.5% — HR/9: 0.6
Last 30 Days: IP: 38.2 — SIERA: 3.64 — ERA: 1.40 — K%: 20.8% — BB%: 6.3% — HR/9: 1.2

Arizona Diamondbacks Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.318 (Rank: 10) — Strikeout Rate: 20.8% (Rank: 22)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.304 (Rank: 26) — Strikeout Rate: 21.9% (Rank: 20)
Pitches per PA: 3.72 (Rank: 29)

Analysis: Gray has pitched well over the last month of play, posting a 1.40 ERA (3.64 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 20.8%. He draws a tough matchup tonight though, as he has to face the Diamondbacks in the hitter-friendly Chase Field. With so many other aces on the bump tonight, Gray can easily be avoided. There are better options for both cash games and tournaments.

Pitcher Rating: 72.6

Chase Anderson : FD: $6,300 — DK: $5,700

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 242.2 — SIERA: 4.08 — ERA: 4.15 — K%: 18.7% — BB%: 7.1% — HR/9: 1.1
Last 30 Days: IP: 23.1 — SIERA: 4.11 — ERA: 3.86 — K%: 19.4% — BB%: 7.1% — HR/9: 0.8

Oakland Athletics Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.306 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 18.0% (Rank: 4)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.325 (Rank: 15) — Strikeout Rate: 18.1% (Rank: 7)
Pitches per PA: 3.85 (Rank: 9)

Analysis: Anderson has been in good form recently, posting a 4.11 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.4% over the last month of play. He draws a tough matchup tonight against the A’s, who have the fourth-lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. With so many other great pitchers on the mound tonight, Anderson is an easy avoid.

Pitcher Rating: 49.2

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

The A’s draw a decent matchup tonight against Chase Anderson, who has given up a .322+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. They also see a favorable ballpark shift playing in the hitter-friendly Chase Field. Josh Reddick and Stephen Vogt are both nice value plays at their respective positions.

Elite Plays:

Josh Reddick : FD: $2,600 — DK: $4,300

Position Eligibility: FD: OF — DK: OF
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 632 — wOBA: 0.361 — ISO: 0.211 — wRC+: 136
Last 30 Days: PA: 92 — wOBA: 0.332 — ISO: 0.200 — wRC+: 115

Secondary Plays:

Stephen Vogt : FD: $2,500 — DK: $3,800

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B/C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 573 — wOBA: 0.348 — ISO: 0.187 — wRC+: 126
Last 30 Days: PA: 82 — wOBA: 0.284 — ISO: 0.178 — wRC+: 82

Arizona

The Diamondbacks draw a tough matchup tonight against Sonny Gray, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .270 wOBA over the last two seasons. There are better matchups to exploit tonight.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

NONE

Chicago Cubs at LA Dodgers – 10:10 PM EST

Chicago Cubs					LA Dodgers
			Jason Hammel					Clayton Kershaw
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			LAD (-206)					6
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.231	0.683	0.300	0.212	SP vs. Left	0.200	0.525	0.233	0.33
SP vs. Right	0.231	0.686	0.298	0.25	SP vs. Right	0.197	0.535	0.238	0.319
Batter Splits	CHC BvP		CHC vs L		Batter Splits	LAD BvP		LA vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Jason Hammel : FD: $8,200 — DK: $8,400

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 313.1 — SIERA: 3.41 — ERA: 3.42 — K%: 23.3% — BB%: 5.7% — HR/9: 1.2
Last 30 Days: IP: 24.2 — SIERA: 3.41 — ERA: 4.01 — K%: 25.0% — BB%: 6.5% — HR/9: 2.6

Los Angeles Dodgers Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.325 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 20.4% (Rank: 17)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.309 (Rank: 23) — Strikeout Rate: 21.6% (Rank: 19)
Pitches per PA: 3.89 (Rank: 5)

Analysis: Hammel is always underowned and typically underpriced as well, but he should be avoided in all league formats tonight. He draws a difficult matchup against the Dodgers, who are ranked third in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. To make matters worse, Clayton Kershaw is pitching opposite him, which is why he is one of the biggest underdogs on the board tonight.

Pitcher Rating: 61.9

Clayton Kershaw : FD: $13,000 — DK: $14,400

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 375.1 — SIERA: 2.17 — ERA: 2.01 — K%: 32.2% — BB%: 4.4% — HR/9: 0.5
Last 30 Days: IP: 37.0 — SIERA: 2.73 — ERA: 1.46 — K%: 26.6% — BB%: 3.6% — HR/9: 0.2

Chicago Cubs Offense (2015)
vs. LH Pitching: wOBA: 0.307 (Rank: 19) — Strikeout Rate: 24.5% (Rank: 30)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.377 (Rank: 3) — Strikeout Rate: 24.7% (Rank: 29)
Pitches per PA: 3.99 (Rank: 1)

Analysis: Kershaw is the top pitcher on the board tonight. He has been dominant over the last month of play, posting a 1.46 ERA (2.73 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 26.6%. He draws a terrific matchup against the Cubs, who have the highest strikeout rate of any team against left-handed pitching this season. Once again, Kershaw is a fade at your own risk type of play tonight.

Pitcher Rating: 98.1

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are facing Clayton Kershaw in Dodger Stadium. No thank you.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

NONE

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers are in a better spot than the Cubs, but they are still in a tough matchup. Jason Hammel has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 wOBA. I will be avoided both offenses in what is expected to be the lowest scoring game of the night.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

NONE

St. Louis at San Francisco – 10:15 PM EST

St. Louis					San Francisco
			Michael Wacha					Mike Leake
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL (-105)					6.5
Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%	Stats	Avg	OPS	wOBA	K%
SP vs. Left	0.215	0.591	0.266	0.201	SP vs. Left	0.275	0.767	0.336	0.15
SP vs. Right	0.241	0.661	0.29	0.214	SP vs. Right	0.225	0.644	0.282	0.201
Batter Splits	STL BvP		STL vs R		Batter Splits	SFG BvP		SF vs R
Batter Split Links Above Open In Pop-Up Window

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Wacha : FD: $9,200 — DK: $10,300

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 258.1 — SIERA: 3.75 — ERA: 2.96 — K%: 20.8% — BB%: 6.7% — HR/9: 0.6
Last 30 Days: IP: 33.0 — SIERA: 3.83 — ERA: 1.09 — K%: 21.6% — BB%: 6.7% — HR/9: 0.3

San Francisco Giants Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.321 (Rank: 6) — Strikeout Rate: 18.5% (Rank: 5)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.305 (Rank: 24) — Strikeout Rate: 22.1% (Rank: 22)
Pitches per PA: 3.75 (Rank: 24)

Analysis: Wacha has a 1.09 ERA over the last month of play. While impressive, his peripherals statistics suggest that he has been the same pitcher that he has been all season. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Giants, who are ranked sixth in team wOBA and fifth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. There are better pitching options at this price point tonight.

Pitcher Rating: 64.7

Mike Leake : FD: $7,000 — DK: $7,400

Pitching Stats:
2014 – 2015: IP: 363.1 — SIERA: 3.68 — ERA: 3.59 — K%: 17.6% — BB%: 5.8% — HR/9: 1.0
Last 30 Days: IP: 20.1 — SIERA: 3.80 — ERA: 1.33 — K%: 18.7% — BB%: 5.3% — HR/9: 0.9

St. Louis Cardinals Offense (2015)
vs. RH Pitching: wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 16) — Strikeout Rate: 19.4% (Rank: 10)
Last 14 Days: wOBA: 0.312 (Rank: 20) — Strikeout Rate: 21.9% (Rank: 20)
Pitches per PA: 3.81 (Rank: 15)

Analysis: Leake has pitched well since coming over from the Reds. Over the last month of play, Leake has a 1.33 ERA (3.80 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 18.7%. He is reasonably priced across the industry and he draws a decent matchup against the Cardinals, who have not hit the ball well recently. Leake isn’t a bad play tonight, but he doesn’t stand out as a must start with all of the other pitching options on the board.

Pitcher Rating: 57.2

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

This game has one of the lowest totals of the night. I won’t be heavily targeting hitters in this one, but Mike Leake has given up a .336 wOBA to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Matt Carpenter and Kolten Wong are secondary plays.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Matt Carpenter : FD: $3,400 — DK: $3,800

Position Eligibility: FD: 3B — DK: 3B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 843 — wOBA: 0.353 — ISO: 0.150 — wRC+: 126
Last 30 Days: PA: 116 — wOBA: 0.404 — ISO: 0.330 — wRC+: 161

Kolten Wong : FD: $2,300 — DK: $3,200

Position Eligibility: FD: 2B — DK: 2B
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 711 — wOBA: 0.313 — ISO: 0.150 — wRC+: 99
Last 30 Days: PA: 103 — wOBA: 0.215 — ISO: 0.021 — wRC+: 32

San Francisco

The Giants draw one of the worst matchups on the board tonight. Since the start of the 2014 season, Michael Wacha has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 wOBA. Buster Posey is the only fantasy option of note here.

Elite Plays:

NONE

Secondary Plays:

Buster Posey : FD: $3,000 — DK: $3,600

Position Eligibility: FD: C — DK: 1B/C
2014-15 vs. RH Pitching: PA: 805 — wOBA: 0.369 — ISO: 0.162 — wRC+: 143
Last 30 Days: PA: 106 — wOBA: 0.296 — ISO: 0.112 — wRC+: 93

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